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Stock Thread (21 Viewers)

BassNBrew said:
@Todem Any concern that your predicted 20% drop will come at the expense of insanely valued companies and rest of the market will end up higher than where it is today when you factor in dividends?  Is LYB going to drop to a PE of 4?
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Who said 20% drop? I am merely building some cash for anticipated pull back that most likely will bounce back quickly. Never anywhere have I said “recession” or 20% The pull back can be 10%....or 12%...or nothing. 

I am staying 70-80% invested (80% in IRA’s and 70% in taxable accounts). 

It would not shock me to see the market higher by year end 2022 than where it is today......but along the way we are going to most likely have some turbulence due to monetary policy changes. I like to take advantage of sales. Taking some profits is never a bad idea. Ever. And then the ability to buy back shares a lot cheaper in a correction is always rewarding. 

I could be totally wrong. So people should do whatever they feel is best for them. I am doing what I feel is best for me heading into 2022. This market has a ton of expensive stocks and also some cheap ones. There are always cheap stocks to be found. But the amount of expensive ones are outnumbering the cheap ones in my large cap arena. 

And BTW I am trimming off all positions.....not exiting. Only a few will be outright sold either due to a change in mid and long term outlooks or tax harvesting in taxable accounts. I always stay asset allocated. Cash is a separate bucket but it is also technically fixed income. 

 
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Todem said:
They should have been raising rates in 2018 like they did but then it got political. I know they say the Fed is not political…..it is.

We have been in a near zero interest rate environment for over 12 years and counting.

if the pandemic never happened we would have been seeing interest rates moving up by now. It is inevitable and there is nothing now to stop what should have been done 3 years ago.

It can solve itself to only a certain degree. Monetary policy in combination with consumer habits will get this inflation under control far faster than sitting at all time low interest rates.

They are not going to raise them fast. But the correction I am talking about will be long over by the time they make maybe their second interest rate hike. This is going to be a reactionary correction to a shift in monetary policy.

I am not predicting a crash or a recession.

Again not slamming on the brakes….I said pumping the brakes.

Big difference.
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@BassNBrew

This is where I am at with why I am building some cash. I am not expecting some crash....it may only be a 10% correction overall......but higher beta stocks will drop 1.5 to 2 times that. I like to have some dry powder when I see things happening before they happen from 25 plus years of experience. Things are changing next year in monetary policy and bottom line is.....the market has not priced any of this in yet. 

 
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nysfl2 said:
PTON up 7% today

I truly don't understand the market sometimes
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I think hindsight will classify that as a Davante Adams-quality head fake. And I know that nobody in here wants to agree with Cramer, but he tore them a new one already this morning.

 
McBokonon said:
Morgan Stanley downgrading $CRWD because they love being wrong on growth companies. I'd be adding if I didn't already have so much.
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I’m sure this is just a wild coincidence, but MS kept SentinelOne at overweight which probably has nothing to do with the fact that MS underwrote $S’s IPO and also exercised their right to buy 5 million shares at the IPO price.

 
McBokonon said:
I’m sure this is just a wild coincidence, but MS kept SentinelOne at overweight which probably has nothing to do with the fact that MS underwrote $S’s IPO and also exercised their right to buy 5 million shares at the IPO price.
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😂 These analysts don’t know crap or are just plain rubber stampers to maintain their other business. I mentioned a similar thing with HGEN. One of the brokers that was in on their offerings set the first $24 target. Year later and it’s in the 6s. 

 
stbugs said:
😂 These analysts don’t know crap or are just plain rubber stampers to maintain their other business. I mentioned a similar thing with HGEN. One of the brokers that was in on their offerings set the first $24 target. Year later and it’s in the 6s. 
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“We downgrade $CRWD on valuation and competition concerns. We upgrade the more expensive competitor $S at the same time.” This is literally what happened.

 
stbugs said:
Well, AXON is still up but way less than the start of the day and SE is now down. RSKD was up premarket and is down 20%. Not sure why on all three but somehow I’m up more now than I was to start the day. 🤷‍♂️ 
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I don’t own RSKD but it seems their GMV didn’t grow as much as people wanted considering retail strength in the same time period. Not saying that’s right or wrong but that’s what I’m seeing.

$SE - could be the slow down in Garena. 

 
BassNBrew said:
https://investors.uwm.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2021/UWM-Holdings-Corporation-Announces-Third-Quarter-2021-Results/default.aspx

UWMC had a real solid beat this quarter.  Dividend of 10 cents a share once again, close to 6% return.
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In this one and still like it, kind of a sleeper.  Rate hikes and/or correction anticipation holding it down?  I don't know but I like the fact they seem positioned to take advantage if/when any correction or weakness happens.  The seem more focused on the long-term, which is great.

 
Sand said:
SOFI is also selling shares.  They're 6% down.  Guess which one I own?  :kicksrock:
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Unless I read it wrong, I don't think SOFI is selling anything, but Softbank and a few other large holders are with a non dilutive share sale. Hoping it's a tell that the bank charter is coming and some big holders need or want to get under 10% ownership. I don't now how bank regulations work, but suspect there are rules/restrictions for beneficial owners at certain ownership levels. I do know that there are banking rules for foreign investors of banks, just not sure if that is what this sale is about, but thinking find out by end of year.

 
McBokonon said:
I don’t own RSKD but it seems their GMV didn’t grow as much as people wanted considering retail strength in the same time period. Not saying that’s right or wrong but that’s what I’m seeing.

$SE - could be the slow down in Garena. 
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Yeah, I can see that but a bit of an overreaction since they are a less than 10 P/S company, way less expensive than most. Just a 1/4 share so it was a starter position.

 
sold 100 of my 700 LCID and loaded more SE. Will add back to LCID when the EV space cools a bit. My dca on LCID was 6 so I figured I had to sell something here with those gains but really didn't want to be completely out.

 
ericttspikes said:
Can't the market accomplish this on it's own without the Fed? In the spring, lumber prices were soaring. Most people, including myself, just put off projects requiring lumber because it was crazy to buy a 2x4 for $50 or whatever it was, and then the floor fell out of the lumber market.

I expect the same will happen with the new and used car market. We sold one of our cars and I simply didn't want to pay for an over inflated car and will continue as a one car family until that market busts too. The car manufactures are partially building cars and parking them on their lots waiting for chips. Not sure when, but at some point there is going to be a massive over supply of vehicles out there. Seems dangerous to raise rates to cool the economy and then in a few months have the floors fall out of these supply constrained sectors. But I'm also not an economist. I do know I'm consciously not panic buying anything discretionary, putting off projects and tightening the belt for now in most areas except food and energy consumption.
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Ladies and gentlemen, I give you....

Erict T. Spikes  :bowtie:

 
Sand said:
SOFI is also selling shares.  They're 6% down.  Guess which one I own?  :kicksrock:
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Interesting they are doing this before their warrant redemption date (Still haven't decided if I will convert or share since they are trading at parity)

Looking slightly down on average because things like SOFI, NVTS, and DNMR are being ex-SPAC anchors today.

 
ericttspikes said:
Unless I read it wrong, I don't think SOFI is selling anything, but Softbank and a few other large holders are with a non dilutive share sale. Hoping it's a tell that the bank charter is coming and some big holders need or want to get under 10% ownership. I don't now how bank regulations work, but suspect there are rules/restrictions for beneficial owners at certain ownership levels. I do know that there are banking rules for foreign investors of banks, just not sure if that is what this sale is about, but thinking find out by end of year.
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Looks like you are right:

 The offering consists entirely of shares of common stock of the Company to be sold by the Selling Stockholders and will not change the number of shares of the Company’s common stock that are outstanding. The Company will not receive any proceeds from the sale of the shares of common stock by the Selling Stockholders.

 
ericttspikes said:
Unless I read it wrong, I don't think SOFI is selling anything, but Softbank and a few other large holders are with a non dilutive share sale. Hoping it's a tell that the bank charter is coming and some big holders need or want to get under 10% ownership. I don't now how bank regulations work, but suspect there are rules/restrictions for beneficial owners at certain ownership levels. I do know that there are banking rules for foreign investors of banks, just not sure if that is what this sale is about, but thinking find out by end of year.
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Thanks.  I'll have to reread as I thought it was dilutive.

 
McBokonon said:
Good quarter from $AXON. Just glancing over their press release and you really have to love the grand goals they have and their stated mission. I don't see it here but they've said before they want to "make the bullet obsolete." In this release, they are discussing their move into products for the justice system, specifically ways to make the discovery process better and faster using their evidence software tools:

"Specifically, we are developing software to help prosecutors and defense attorneys streamline the discovery process. Not only is our goal to save attorneys time, but also to shorten the time people are jailed awaiting trial."

Hard not to root for a company like this, and it helps that they're really good and have/will make me piles of money.
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But what's to prevent big tech from coming in and doing it better for cheaper?  Relationships?

 
Desert_Power said:
Interesting they are doing this before their warrant redemption date (Still haven't decided if I will convert or share since they are trading at parity)

Looking slightly down on average because things like SOFI, NVTS, and DNMR are being ex-SPAC anchors today.
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I went ahead and converted as I don't want any more income this year.  And, like you said, it was about at parity between selling the warrants or converting.

 
ericttspikes said:
lol. just doing my part to cool the economy.
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I do agree with you. I’ve got no need for a car for at least 2 years and I’d love to see a glut at that point. We got lucky and bought last December instead of waiting till May (when my middle son got his real license). Now I’ve got one more for a hand me down but we have a while now.

 
SFBayDuck said:
MS downgrading it from Overweight to Equal-Weight seems to be the reason?
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Very likely. 

I really hope you guys did not bet the farm on this or BLDP.....please tell me you guys just put some fun/mad money into it. 

The bulk of your portfolio should be high quality. 

 
McBokonon said:
I’m not a fan of $QS at all, but if this is because of an MS downgrade I have to assume those scandalous bastards have their bets placed with a competitor or something.
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Naaaaaa they have been big cheerleaders of this one for a long time. 

You gotta take all these analyst upgrades and downgrades with a grain of salt. 

 
Todem said:
Naaaaaa they have been big cheerleaders of this one for a long time. 

You gotta take all these analyst upgrades and downgrades with a grain of salt. 
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True, except I’ve decided to take the Crowdstrike downgrade with hostility and rage instead. But yeah, I generally don’t really care but still like talking about them sometimes. 

 
Todem said:
Very likely. 

I really hope you guys did not bet the farm on this or BLDP.....please tell me you guys just put some fun/mad money into it. 

The bulk of your portfolio should be high quality. 
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No, 2.5% and 1% allocations.  I saved my big allocations for quality boat anchors like Amazon, Intel, Disney, and Visa.

Thank goodness for covid, meme stocks, pretend coins, and uranium/tin having salvaged the year.

 
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