Stock Thread (13 Viewers)

[Capella]

Amazon is so odd to me. I wonder if all the government anti-Amazon thoughts (first Trump and then AOC with HQ2) had an effect because it’s almost like people think badly about them and not an Apple or Google who are both way more monopolistic but don’t have a Bezos.

I’m really interested in the Q4 numbers and how they do this year. Seems like they are on a lot of do well lists because they had such a muted year. I think the COVID stock label just stuck so it got shelved during the reopening rally.

I’m buying a decent amount more in January so I guess I hope the price stays where it is till then. Frustrating year for sure though. Never expected it to stay flat. Should lead to a big few years ahead imo. 

 

[stbugs]

I’m buying a decent amount more in January so I guess I hope the price stays where it is till then. Frustrating year for sure though. Never expected it to stay flat. Should lead to a big few years ahead imo. 

It has tended to hit some flat zones for a bit. It took almost 2 years from when it first hit 2000 to make its way past it again.

 

[beef]

I rented DIS for a few months this year. The fact that they won't pay a dividend bugs me.  Get off my lawn.

This will probably be another rent job for me too since I bought it in my brokerage account hoping for a little rebound.  Already a huge win as I'm up 0.5% on it today instead of having it in DKNG and losing another 5.0% each day.  

 

[NajehHejan]

Just chiming in to again profess my love for GCV, an original todem pick.

Up 12% on the year - when you add in the dividend, about +20% total return

Total return north of 60% since April 2020

@Todem- with the rockiness and waves you expect for 2022, due to higher interest rates, how do you feel a convertible income fund like this will behave?

 

[ChiefD]

Just chiming in to again profess my love for GCV, an original todem pick.

Up 12% on the year - when you add in the dividend, about +20% total return

Total return north of 60% since April 2020

@Todem- with the rockiness and waves you expect for 2022, due to higher interest rates, how do you feel a convertible income fund like this will behave?

Yeah agree. I bought some early in the year and it's been great.

 

[Dwayne Hoover]

Cathie bought more DKNG today.  She keeps buying the falling knife.  She loves the stock.

Meanwhile a lot of us have soured on this one.  Someone is wrong here,  Jesus or FBG?

 

[ericttspikes]

AMZN and DIS are my two largest holdings and they're both down/flat on the year w/ the S&P up like 25%, I really suck at this

AMZN is flat while AAPL is up almost 30% maybe one day I'll understand how that happened.

I believe AMZN gets to 4k, just not sure when. AAPL looks to have future products in VR and deveoping an EV offering of some sort. I’m not sure what’s next for AMZN yet. 

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

I will never buy DKNG again.  Absolutely feckless company. 

You and others have me convinced this is the correct analysis however I'm probably going to buy a very small stake so if it goes to $1000 a share I won't be tempted to jump off a mountain. 

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Cathie bought more DKNG today.  She keeps buying the falling knife.  She loves the stock.

Meanwhile a lot of us have soured on this one.  Someone is wrong here,  Jesus or FBG?

Dang it anyway. 

 

[Warrior]

Just chiming in to again profess my love for GCV, an original todem pick.

Up 12% on the year - when you add in the dividend, about +20% total return

Total return north of 60% since April 2020

@Todem- with the rockiness and waves you expect for 2022, due to higher interest rates, how do you feel a convertible income fund like this will behave?

Are any stocks out there NOT up 60% since the bottom in early 2020?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I believe AMZN gets to 4k, just not sure when. AAPL looks to have future products in VR and deveoping an EV offering of some sort. I’m not sure what’s next for AMZN yet. 

Amazon could snap their fingers and spin off a shipping business the size of UPS, just like they've done with multiple other sectors.  Even without those businesses their revenue grew by twice as much as AAPL's the last year.

Meanwhile Apple just keeps releasing the same black brick with 4 year old Android features and calling it a day.

 

[GoBirds]

Amazon could snap their fingers and spin off a shipping business the size of UPS, just like they've done with multiple other sectors.  Even without those businesses their revenue grew by twice as much as AAPL's the last year.

Meanwhile Apple just keeps releasing the same black brick with 4 year old Android features and calling it a day.

I feel pretty bullish on AMZN at these levels, added 2 shared today. Really with either stock I don’t see how you go wrong long term, would much rather put my money there (long term, am a bit nervous for pull back near term) than in a money market earning nothing. 

 

[Todem]

Just chiming in to again profess my love for GCV, an original todem pick.

Up 12% on the year - when you add in the dividend, about +20% total return

Total return north of 60% since April 2020

@Todem- with the rockiness and waves you expect for 2022, due to higher interest rates, how do you feel a convertible income fund like this will behave?

The same way. Stay long on it and collect that hearty yield. Convertibles should be no more than 5% of your total portfolio.

 

[beef]

Cathie bought more DKNG today.  She keeps buying the falling knife.  She loves the stock.

Meanwhile a lot of us have soured on this one.  Someone is wrong here,  Jesus or FBG?

I'd go Sampson.  Has an amazing run of total domination.  Loses the luster, crashes hard and everyone starts doubting.  Then gets one final hurrah but not quite like the first run.  And without the dying part.     

I'm comfortable with my DKNG investment being in ARKK and going long so if it booms again I don't totally miss out.  Think I'm done playing it short term though.   A big part of my sale and not holding and riding it out was to capture some loss to offset real winners since I don't see DKNG rebounding quickly.

 

[Swaymoney]

JNJ is supposed to be splitting into 2 businesses, is it time to load up on their stock?

 

[Desert_Power]

Overall market is green, but tech still slow bleeding.

 

[General Malaise]

Cathie bought more DKNG today.  She keeps buying the falling knife.  She loves the stock.

Meanwhile a lot of us have soured on this one.  Someone is wrong here,  Jesus or FBG?

They can't make money.  I'm out on DKNG for good until they can show an ability to make a profit.  Spare me the ####### lectures about how this is the way to run a business.  Bullspit.  They spend more than they make.  Bottom line.  They have a ####### license to steal people's money and they can't turn that into profitability.  I don't have a business degree but I know a bad business model when I see it and this company sucks.  The end.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

They can't make money.  I'm out on DKNG for good until they can show an ability to make a profit.  Spare me the ####### lectures about how this is the way to run a business.  Bullspit.  They spend more than they make.  Bottom line.  They have a ####### license to steal people's money and they can't turn that into profitability.  I don't have a business degree but I know a bad business model when I see it and this company sucks.  The end.

It's not like they spend more on servers and salaries than they make. 

Legal gambling is in a market capture phase right now. You either spend and hopefully win, or be content making a small profit for a few months and then fade away into obscurity while the winners grow around you. 

I've yet to see an analyst estimate predicting a steady profit within even the next 5 years. It's not the short term goal here. 

I get it if people don't want that right now and would rather park in established profitable businesses with the market being so tenuous. That certainly makes sense. But I can't think of an industry more suited to not rushing for profits than gambling, a currently small industry with tons of competition that will one day likely be a giant industry with little surviving competition. 

It's not like this is new info. Were people really buying DKNG in the last year expecting them to putz around with some baby profits while neglecting growth spend? Short term pritability was never pitched to investors, as far as I'm aware. 

 

[General Malaise]

It's not like they spend more on servers and salaries than they make. 

Legal gambling is in a market capture phase right now. You either spend and hopefully win, or be content making a small profit for a few months and then fade away into obscurity while the winners grow around you. 

I've yet to see an analyst estimate predicting a steady profit within even the next 5 years. It's not the short term goal here. 

I get it if people don't want that right now and would rather park in established profitable businesses with the market being so tenuous. That certainly makes sense. But I can't think of an industry more suited to not rushing for profits than gambling, a currently small industry with tons of competition that will one day likely be a giant industry with little surviving competition. 

It's not like this is new info. Were people really buying DKNG in the last year expecting them to putz around with some baby profits while neglecting growth spend? Short term pritability was never pitched to investors, as far as I'm aware. 

Yes, I was investing in DKNG with an expectation of them making a profit.  They can't.  They haven't.  They won't.  It is inexcusable to have this sort of market share and not have anything to show for it.  

The longer they take to make a profit is time competitors can use to catch them.  This isn't some secret sauce business - it's gambling.  Bookies make more money than DKNG.  What's that tell you?  

Lastly, are insiders buying or selling this thing?  

 

[BassNBrew]

It's not like they spend more on servers and salaries than they make. 

Legal gambling is in a market capture phase right now. You either spend and hopefully win, or be content making a small profit for a few months and then fade away into obscurity while the winners grow around you. 

I've yet to see an analyst estimate predicting a steady profit within even the next 5 years. It's not the short term goal here. 

I get it if people don't want that right now and would rather park in established profitable businesses with the market being so tenuous. That certainly makes sense. But I can't think of an industry more suited to not rushing for profits than gambling, a currently small industry with tons of competition that will one day likely be a giant industry with little surviving competition. 

It's not like this is new info. Were people really buying DKNG in the last year expecting them to putz around with some baby profits while neglecting growth spend? Short term pritability was never pitched to investors, as far as I'm aware. 

19% rake on the classic games...they should be rolling in the dough.  I wouldn't mind growth spending, but I suspect it's lavish luxury box spends for the top employees in the name of advertising.  

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Yes, I was investing in DKNG with an expectation of them making a profit.  They can't.  They haven't.  They won't.  It is inexcusable to have this sort of market share and not have anything to show for it.  

The longer they take to make a profit is time competitors can use to catch them.  This isn't some secret sauce business - it's gambling.  Bookies make more money than DKNG.  What's that tell you?  

Lastly, are insiders buying or selling this thing?  

Dkng's spending is on marketing.

Have I heard of your bookie? Is he trying to become a $100bn company in the next 3-5yrs? 

Your statement about it taking longer to get profitable giving competitors time to catch them seems complely backwards to me. They're spending for market share/dominance. The whole point of the spending is to crush competitor's chance to get a foothold. Contrary to your point, limping around with small profits while 90% of the country doesn't even realize they have a gambling product is exactly what competitors could use to catch/pass them. 

Legal sports gambling will probably be a huge market in 5-10yrs and only a few companies will be at the lead of that. This is exactly the time to spend to try and make sure you're one of those. 

Again, I get it if that's not people's thing, but that was always the thesis here. No one is buying this thing hoping to get the askjeeves of internet search and limp around in perpetual obscurity. 

 

[General Malaise]

Dkng's spending is on marketing.

Have I heard of your bookie? Is he trying to become a $100bn company in the next 3-5yrs? 

Your statement about it taking longer to get profitable giving competitors time to catch them seems complely backwards to me. They're spending for market share/dominance. The whole point of the spending is to crush competitor's chance to get a foothold. Contrary to your point, limping around with small profits while 90% of the country doesn't even realize they have a gambling product is exactly what competitors could use to catch/pass them. 

Legal sports gambling will probably be a huge market in 5-10yrs and only a few companies will be at the lead of that. This is exactly the time to spend to try and make sure you're one of those. 

Again, I get it if that's not people's thing, but that was always the thesis here. No one is buying this thing hoping to get the askjeeves of internet search and limp around in perpetual obscurity. 

It's overkill.  We know it's there.  We don't need 15 commercials every bad bowl game to know DKNG exists.  

You can't become a behemoth company without turning a profit eventually.  It's like living on credit cards - eventually it catches up to you.  

Take a page out of Starbucks' book.  They don't advertise.  We know it's there.  There is tons of competition.  And yet, they kill it.  Why?  BECAUSE THEY MAKE MONEY!!!!!!!!!!1111  Per share, they make $3.50.   What does DKNG make?  errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, sorry, lose?  They LOSE $3.60 per share.  

That's not how you run a company.  It's feckless and they don't have a monopoly on this business.  You think they're going to be the king of the hill in this industry?  How in the world are they going to do that hemorrhaging cash?  

And you didn't answer my question:  Are insiders buying or selling?  

 

[General Malaise]

19% rake on the classic games...they should be rolling in the dough.  I wouldn't mind growth spending, but I suspect it's lavish luxury box spends for the top employees in the name of advertising.  

It's the hot girl who lives on credit cards.  Soon enough, she'll be 45 and out of credit.  Then what?  

 

[General Malaise]

YTD DKNG has lost 42%.  That's in a market that's up!  Seriously, WTF man?  

 

[beef]

It's the hot girl who lives on credit cards.  Soon enough, she'll be 45 and out of credit.  Then what?  

$5 BJs?

 

[McBokonon]

Oddly, I agree with both @General Malaiseand @FreeBaGeL here. If I believed in DKNG as an investment, I’d actually prefer they forego trying to make a profit and capture as much of the market as possible, as Bagel is explaining. That’s what growth companies should do.  Like GM, I don’t think DKNG will ever figure out a way to turn their market share into profits large enough to reward shareholders in a meaningful way (outside of trades.)

But as I’ve mentioned a trillion times, I don’t think the apps are the best long term play to capitalize in the sports betting growth market and I don’t really know if there is one. Wynn agrees and they’ve said as much. 

 

[Desert_Power]

YTD DKNG has lost 42%.  That's in a market that's up!  Seriously, WTF man?  

ARKK is down 25% YTD.  High growth companies have just been beat up.

 

[McBokonon]

YTD DKNG has lost 42%.  That's in a market that's up!  Seriously, WTF man?  

Not a DKNG fan but if you’re using YTD stock performance to judge whether or not a company is any good, then you’re going to miss out on pretty much all growth stocks.

 

[Capella]

There is absolutely nothing special about DKNG’s software. Once gambling is legal in all 50 the market will be overrun with casinos (look at Caesar’s now) and any market share they have tried to acquire will be gobbled up. 

 

[General Malaise]

Not a DKNG fan but if you’re using YTD stock performance to judge whether or not a company is any good, then you’re going to miss out on pretty much all growth stocks.

Or I'm identifying a company that is failing.  That's what this is.  A failing business.  

Again, this isn't a new technology - it's gambling.  What exactly is DKNG bringing to the table that's new and sexy?  The answer is nothing.  And if you can't make money taking people's money then something is seriously wrong with you.  

 

[General Malaise]

There is absolutely nothing special about DKNG’s software. Once gambling is legal in all 50 the market will be overrun with casinos (look at Caesar’s now) and any market share they have tried to acquire will be gobbled up. 

Gobbled up by businesses that know how to make a profit.  

 

[McBokonon]

Or I'm identifying a company that is failing.  That's what this is.  A failing business.  

Again, this isn't a new technology - it's gambling.  What exactly is DKNG bringing to the table that's new and sexy?  The answer is nothing.  And if you can't make money taking people's money then something is seriously wrong with you.  

See my other post. I agree about DKNG. Just saying using YTD performance on growth stocks when they’ve all been punished indiscriminately isn’t the right metric to prove the point.

 

[General Malaise]

ARKK is down 35% YTD.  High growth companies have just been beat up.

ARKK isn't a business, it's an ETF.  Not the analogy I would use to defend DKNG.

 

[General Malaise]

See my other post. I agree about DKNG. Just saying using YTD performance on growth stocks when they’ve all been punished indiscriminately isn’t the right metric to prove the point.

DKNG isn't being punished indiscriminately.  It's being punished for being a loser.

 

[McBokonon]

DKNG isn't being punished indiscriminately.  It's being punished for being a loser.

 Did it kick your dog, too? Jesus.

Good, bad, mediocre: growth has been punished whether it’s any of those three things. That’s not controversial. If DKNG was crushing it as a business (they aren’t, I KNOW THAT - I’VE BEEN VOCALLY AND REPETITIVELY BEARISH ON THEM IN THIS VERY THREAD FOR ALMOST A YEAR) - they still would have been punished. That’s literally all I’m saying. There are a million other things to point to when making the case that DKNG IS THE WORST COMPANY IN THE WORLD. YTD stock performance, by itself, in a vacuum, is not one of them. I’m going to assume you’re being intentionally obtuse at this point and having a little fun.

 

[SFBayDuck]

It's the hot girl who lives on credit cards.  Soon enough, she'll be 45 and out of credit.  Then what?  

Sounds like she needs a Sugar Daddy....you have her number?  Asking for a friend...... 

 

[BassNBrew]

  I’m going to assume you’re being intentionally obtuse at this point 

I don't think he owns Amazon.

 

[General Malaise]

 Did it kick your dog, too? Jesus.

Good, bad, mediocre: growth has been punished whether it’s any of those three things. That’s not controversial. If DKNG was crushing it as a business (they aren’t, I KNOW THAT - I’VE BEEN VOCALLY AND REPETITIVELY BEARISH ON THEM IN THIS VERY THREAD FOR ALMOST A YEAR) - they still would have been punished. That’s literally all I’m saying. There are a million other things to point to when making the case that DKNG IS THE WORST COMPANY IN THE WORLD. YTD stock performance, by itself, in a vacuum, is not one of them. I’m going to assume you’re being intentionally obtuse at this point and having a little fun.

I'm having a little fun for sure, but yeah, this stock owes me and I'm mad.  If I had any intestinal fortitude, I'd short it out of spite.  

But there is reality in my venom today and it needs to be stated - this stock can't make a profit taking people's money.  That's a problem. And until or unless it fixes that problem, I don't see a pathway to profitability.  Again, they don't offer anything new or unusual.  It's not a new business model.  There is literally nothing DKNG offers me that I can't get somewhere else and if there is, let me know about it.  

Look, scoreboard matters.  And YTD, this thing has been trash.  In an up market.  The end.  I really don't have to say or type anything else - mic drop I guess?

 

[McBokonon]

I'm having a little fun for sure, but yeah, this stock owes me and I'm mad.  If I had any intestinal fortitude, I'd short it out of spite.  

But there is reality in my venom today and it needs to be stated - this stock can't make a profit taking people's money.  That's a problem. And until or unless it fixes that problem, I don't see a pathway to profitability.  Again, they don't offer anything new or unusual.  It's not a new business model.  There is literally nothing DKNG offers me that I can't get somewhere else and if there is, let me know about it.  

Look, scoreboard matters.  And YTD, this thing has been trash.  In an up market.  The end.  I really don't have to say or type anything else - mic drop I guess?

If only you would have used this sound investment strategy when I was saying the exact same things about oat milk, you might have saved some money.

 

[identikit]

I got in @ under $25 for DKNG...

Sold off along the way...did well...

Got lucky on the Scoreboard buyout by Penn.

Keeping what I made and staying out of gaming in general.

Consolidation will come....

 

[General Malaise]

If only you would have used this sound investment strategy when I was saying the exact same things about oat milk, you might have saved some money.

Thought that thing was a winner for sure but I don't understand subsidies and really, they are up against it.  

I hate whiners like me who do nothing so I just sold DKNG short.  Bold move, Cotton, let's see how this plays out.

 

[Desert_Power]

ARKK is down 25% YTD.  High growth companies have just been beat up.

Fixed for some stupid math

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Dkng's spending is on marketing.

Have I heard of your bookie? Is he trying to become a $100bn company in the next 3-5yrs? 

Your statement about it taking longer to get profitable giving competitors time to catch them seems complely backwards to me. They're spending for market share/dominance. The whole point of the spending is to crush competitor's chance to get a foothold. Contrary to your point, limping around with small profits while 90% of the country doesn't even realize they have a gambling product is exactly what competitors could use to catch/pass them. 

Legal sports gambling will probably be a huge market in 5-10yrs and only a few companies will be at the lead of that. This is exactly the time to spend to try and make sure you're one of those. 

Again, I get it if that's not people's thing, but that was always the thesis here. No one is buying this thing hoping to get the askjeeves of internet search and limp around in perpetual obscurity. 

Vinnie Boombatz

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

It's the hot girl who lives on credit cards.  Soon enough, she'll be 45 and out of credit.  Then what?  

I marry her? 

 

[Dwayne Hoover]

I'm looking at MTTR, it peaked in late November and has taken a substantial hit since then.  Its one I'm interested in buying at some point

 

[identikit]

I'm looking at MTTR, it peaked in late November and has taken a substantial hit since then.  Its one I'm interested in buying at some point

Holding some MTTRW

When it moves, it moves fast

Hope it's up.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

@General Malaisein the RIP thread I responded to your post with something like "maybe Rest in Pot" would be more appropriate for you. An obvious joke, and not a really good one, but based on your years of posts. Also a product nearly legal in some form in all 50 states.

I love your posts and have made me laugh for a long time. I also appreciate your posts here. The post was deleted by a mod so sorry if it offended you. I know you don't know me as well as I "know" you. 

God bless you sir. 

 

[GoBirds]

Saw my Vanguard target date fund VFORX down 17% today, that can’t be right can it? End of year distribution or something going on? 

 

[kevzilla]

JNJ is supposed to be splitting into 2 businesses, is it time to load up on their stock?

I suspect you have some time, might be '23 before this actually happens.  I'm making a note to circle back to this one at mid-year.

 

[General Malaise]

@General Malaisein the RIP thread I responded to your post with something like "maybe Rest in Pot" would be more appropriate for you. An obvious joke, and not a really good one, but based on your years of posts. Also a product nearly legal in some form in all 50 states.

I love your posts and have made me laugh for a long time. I also appreciate your posts here. The post was deleted by a mod so sorry if it offended you. I know you don't know me as well as I "know" you. 

God bless you sir. 

 I didn't see it and would have loved it if I did.  You know I think the world of you GB.