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Stock Thread (20 Viewers)

GreenNGold said:
...

I'll repeat:  You should buy now, there is a good chance this is the cheapest stocks will ever be in your life. 
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I don't disagree with buying when names you like are on sale. But personally, I'd say that "the chance that this is the cheapest stocks will ever be in your life" is very small given what most feel is the volatility to come the rest of this year.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
When they correct ahead of a major correction do you find that they typically hold up better during the actual market correction than stuff that hasn't?

I ask because a lot of tech/growth stuff has already gone through a major correction ahead of this market wide correction you're predicting.  CRM already corrected 30%, SHOP 30% as well, SE 50%, SQ 50%, PYPL 40%.  Stuff like that.
Click to expand...
So you bring up a great point and let me speak on this.

I have taken and 1/4 and 1/2 positions in many high multiple large cap tech aince this blood bath began.

NVDA

AMD

CRM

SHOP

TSLA (at 898)

RBLX (got back in today)

So you can’t time markets. I think there is a big disconnect on why I al in 20-25% cash.

To @GreenNGold I am 80% invested and rebalanced a lot out of fixed income into cash and took some profits on some positions to build this cash. There is never a bad time to have some cash.

I bought on Black Friday into high multiple positions listed above and am nibbling more today.

I am not going to be coming in here like some kind of profit to tell everyone I know when it’s time.

I also highly encouraged everyone to keep pounding your 401K’s. 
 

But you made a statement that is kinda reckless that stocks will  ever be this cheap again…..come on man. There are times you can get value throughout your investment life. That is how money is made. Buying things on sale. And there are a lot of stocks selling off today in Big Tech and speculative small stocks with no profits.

Whats holding up? Staples, Utility’s, industrials…..but they sold off last year so there is constant rotation.

The best thing I can offer in this thread is listing what I own and people can make up their own mind when to buy the positions.

And they were all incredible cheap in March of 2020 so yeah they were a lot cheaper whem I first started pounding the table in here to back the truck up and load up.

I never ever met someone who went poor taking profits and I suggested building a little cash (20% is nothing) before Black Friday for days…..like today on tue Nasdaq if you want to get some value.

Stock picking is not easy…..catching bottoms is fools gold…..bit having powder is wise to buy stocks.

So I am on the same page as far as being bullish….but I have 30 plus years of market experience telegraphing to me we are going to have a lot of volatility here in the first few quarters while this market recalibrates.

Case in point on Black Friday, case and point today…..and we have powder to take advantage.

That was the essence and that was my “bat signal” and here we are volatility is here.

Posting the list after the bell.

 
Todem said:
So you bring up a great point and let me speak on this.

I have taken and 1/4 and 1/2 positions in many high multiple large cap tech aince this blood bath began.

NVDA

AMD

CRM

SHOP

TSLA (at 898)

RBLX (got back in today)
Click to expand...
I wish I would have done the same but hate the idea of selling now.  :(

 
Todem said:
I am not going to be coming in here like some kind of profit to tell everyone I know when it’s time.

I also highly encouraged everyone to keep pounding your 401K’s. 
 
Click to expand...


I agree with what your are saying and what you do makes a lot more sense for you.  I'm just quoting this part because people are sitting on cash waiting on you to tell them to buy.  I'm telling these people that they should just buy now and stay long.  

 
pecorino said:
I don't disagree with buying when names you like are on sale. But personally, I'd say that "the chance that this is the cheapest stocks will ever be in your life" is very small given what most feel is the volatility to come the rest of this year.
Click to expand...


People have been making that argument going on 10+ years now.  The chances of you correctly timing a dip are much smaller than just buying in now. 

 
McBokonon said:
CVS is my only friend.
Click to expand...
INSP is mine. Pre-reported great numbers last night, barely up. Maybe the sun will shine again on this donkey. Upset at myself for not selling more back in early November. Glad I built up cash and holy crap at some of the prices of those sells now, but had a few big winners that I felt like I should trim. Could have bought them right back at a nice discount.

 
fruity pebbles said:
SP500 and ARKK are roughly even now if bought three years ago
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No idea what’s in ARKK but there are some really nice tech buys out there. I bought HUBS back in March of 2020, so it's still nicely up but damn it was blowing away numbers and it’s a nice value now. Was growing at 30% a year and looks to be accelerating to 50% growth this year which is great to see and it’s about it’s low for the year. If I didn’t have a big holding, I’d buy more. Some stalwarts that you feel like in 5-10 years will be way up from here.

 
GreenNGold said:
I agree with what your are saying and what you do makes a lot more sense for you.  I'm just quoting this part because people are sitting on cash waiting on you to tell them to buy.  I'm telling these people that they should just buy now and stay long.  
Click to expand...
If they have NVDA or SHOP or AMD or CRM today is a great day to add and establish positions in those type of stocks.

Unfortunately you can’t ever predict bottoms but the Russell 2000 is now in correction off 10% from its high…..but that will go lower.

The Dow and S&P will soon correct like this too and then bounce right back.

Nasqaq is in correction now.

 
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GreenNGold said:
The above was posted on Dec 1st-2nd.  Anyone waiting for a "totem bat signal" has already missed out on about 4% gains over just a single month.  That is not a knock on Todem as I enjoy his posts and agree he brings a lot of value to this thread, but everyone just holding cash instead of being invested is a mistake for most of you, as there is never a clear bat signal. 

The answer is buy and hold now, invest in something like the S&P 500 if you don't have an individual stock you prefer instead of holding cash (almost everyone is better off doing this even if they think they like other stocks better). 

I'll repeat:  You should buy now, there is a good chance this is the cheapest stocks will ever be in your life. 
Click to expand...
Not necessarily.  NASDAQ is down over that month period.  And I did buy during that period, just my dumb luck I hit my entry point into NVDA and not V or MC.

I get it, that's why I said all logic says I should be DCAing in.  But, as someone who put in 200K at the exact wrong time at the beginning of January 2016 I can tell you that it can pay off being patient a couple weeks as we always seems we have a nice dip at some point in the first quarter.  I mean there is a reason they make software that tracks running averages, formulas for support and confidence, swings and other signals.

For the most basic investor, yes buy now, buy proven S&P 500 blue chip companies that you believe in is a solid strategy. 

But, it's the most basic strategy and not the be all end all of investing otherwise this thread probably wouldn't even exist and people like Todem wouldn't have a job.  With some knowledge and patients you can do better than that.

 
GreenNGold said:
The above was posted on Dec 1st-2nd.  Anyone waiting for a "totem bat signal" has already missed out on about 4% gains over just a single month.  That is not a knock on Todem as I enjoy his posts and agree he brings a lot of value to this thread, but everyone just holding cash instead of being invested is a mistake for most of you, as there is never a clear bat signal. 

The answer is buy and hold now, invest in something like the S&P 500 if you don't have an individual stock you prefer instead of holding cash (almost everyone is better off doing this even if they think they like other stocks better). 

I'll repeat:  You should buy now, there is a good chance this is the cheapest stocks will ever be in your life. 
Click to expand...
I bought the four he listed shortly after that.  I believe CRM, ADSK, V, and MA.

Already sold though.

Back to cash

 
GreenNGold said:
People have been making that argument going on 10+ years now.  The chances of you correctly timing a dip are much smaller than just buying in now. 
Click to expand...
That's not what the original post was saying. It claimed that there is a good chance that we will never see stocks priced this low again in our lifetimes. That means SPY at 468 (today's close) is likely to be left in our rear-view mirror forevermore, and if you want to buy at these levels, this is your last chance. I wish it was true but it probably isn't.

 
Master list:

adsk

aep

amd

amt

amzn

ba

bmy

csco

cybr

cvx

cmi

de

deo

dis

dow

exc

fdx

fb

glpi

gis

googl

hd

jnj

jpm

ko

lmt

lyb

ma

mcd

mdu

mrk

msft

mo

nee

nke

nflx

nvda

pep

pfe

pg

pm

rtx

shop

t

tgt

tsco

tsla

ul

v

vz

wmt

closed ends we use:

ADX

PEP

GCV

Also like the buy writes:

diax

qyld

bxmx

High Risk High Reward names (mad money account):

plug

bldp

qs

rent

crsp

edit

ntla

rivn

 
ghostguy123 said:
15% dividend?
Click to expand...
That is not right…..they had a big capital gain distribution end of 2021.

I have posted about this fund going all the way back to March 16th of 2020.

Last years return? 29.78%
 

Since I recommended it? 49%

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hell of a list Todem.  How much different is this or has this been as opposed to just co continually buying something like VOO or SPY?

 
pecorino said:
That's not what the original post was saying. It claimed that there is a good chance that we will never see stocks priced this low again in our lifetimes. That means SPY at 468 (today's close) is likely to be left in our rear-view mirror forevermore, and if you want to buy at these levels, this is your last chance. I wish it was true but it probably isn't.
Click to expand...


My statement was a bit over the top, as I can't guarantee there won't be a 1% dip tomorrow or something, but if you say it every day it is actually correct more days than it is not, and certainly more correct than all the people predicting constant doom. 

 
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GreenNGold said:
My statement was a bit over the top, as I can't guarantee there won't be a 1% dip tomorrow or something, but if you say it every day it is actually correct more days than it is not, and certainly more correct than all the people predicting constant doom. 
Click to expand...
I was probably the biggest bull and cheerleader back in Feb-March 2020. I could not stress enough that was a once in 10 year event.

I don’t think you think I am one of those doomsayers either.
 

But I will stick to my theme of 2022 being positive in the high single digits with a lot of volatility in between…..hence the tactical move to 20-30% cash depending on stomachs lol to tactically buy big dips in 2022. 

 
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Todem said:
I was probably the biggest bull and cheerleader back in Feb-March 2020. I could not stress enough that was a once in 10 year event.

I don’t think you think I am one of those doomsayers either.
 

But I will stick to my theme of 2022 being positive in the high single digits with a lot of volatility in between…..hence the tactical move to 20-30% cash depending on stomachs lol to tactically buy big dips in 2022. 
Click to expand...


Agreed I don't think you are one those doomsayers either.  

Also, thanks for the list I plan to go through it and look for ideas, as while most of my portfolio is in index funds I like to pick my own stocks with about 20% of it.  I generally just stay long as I have learned I can't really time the market well.  I did sell when covid was starting as I saw it coming and avoided most of the dip, but I also wasn't expecting everything to bounce back so fast so missed out on all the potential gains on the way back up and pretty much bought back in close to where I sold.  

 
ghostguy123 said:
Hell of a list Todem.  How much different is this or has this been as opposed to just co continually buying something like VOO or SPY?
Click to expand...
To be very candid I don’t look to beat index’s on the upside but I smoke them on the downside. And that allows a better more predictable growth pattern.

I want to average between 8-10% annually and the last 30 years we have easily accomplished that with 1/3 less standard deviation (implied volatility) in a 70/30 portfolio and about 15% less standard deviation in a 100% equity portfolio.

This is only the third time in 30 years I have been in this much cash and it is not really a big number quite frankly. 20-30% is nothing….in fact I look at it as fixed income in a rising rate environment when bond prices will start to fall.

I would be surprised if we have any cash left by end of 2 quarter….and the way markets move now? Maybe all of it goes to work before end of the 1st quarter and we simply arE going to be happy with our avg cost basis on heavily beaten down names (large cap tech mostly).

Fixed income for those that need that in their portfolio won’t be deployed till near year end as I expect 3 rate hikes easily. The bull bond market is over this year and it is wise to wait on putting new money into duration. 
 

I really only lime TIPS and ultra short munis and ultra short government bonds. Duration is an enemy right now to bond investors.

 
Todem said:
Folks for those looking for a great closed end Large cap equity growth fund.

ADX
Click to expand...
I recall you mentioning this before. The 2021 year end distribution they did was bonkers!

https://www.adamsfunds.com/news/adams-diversified-equity-fund-declares-year-end-distribution-exceeds-its-annual-6-minimum-distribution-rate-commitment-6/

Baltimore, Maryland, November 11, 2021 – Adams Diversified Equity Fund, Inc. (NYSE: ADX) declared today a year-end distribution of $2.83 per share. The total distributions by the Fund for 2021 will be $2.98, including the distributions totaling $0.15 per share made prior to today’s announcement. The annual distribution rate represented by these distributions is 15.7%.

The year-end distribution consists of the following:

$0.07 per share from 2021 net investment income; and

$2.76 per share from net capital gains realized during 2021, of which $0.35 was short-term gain and $2.41 was long-term gain.

This marks the 57th consecutive year that the Fund has paid out capital gains and the 86th consecutive year it has paid out dividends to its shareholders.

Commenting on the year-end distribution, Mark E. Stoeckle, CEO of Adams Diversified Equity Fund, said: "The U.S. equity market continues to be in the longest bull market in history. Coupled with good stock selection, this created significant embedded gains that we realized while positioning for new opportunities.  We are pleased to announce our 2021 distribution rate of 15.7%, which far exceeds our commitment to distribute at least 6% of the Fund’s trailing 12-month average month-end market price. While future market conditions are uncertain, we are proud of our long history of providing dividend income and capital gains to our shareholders under all market conditions, and this year’s distributions add to that exceptional track record.”

The payable date for the distribution is December 22, 2021, the record date is November 22, 2021, and the ex-dividend date is November 19, 2021. The year-end distribution is payable in stock and/or cash at the option of each shareholder.

Details regarding the annual distribution rates and the Fund’s 6% minimum distribution commitment can be found at adamsfunds.com.

 
Since 1929, Adams Funds has consistently helped generations of investors reach their investment goals. Adams Funds is comprised of two closed-end funds, Adams Diversified Equity Fund, Inc. (NYSE: ADX) and Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc. (NYSE: PEO). The Funds are actively managed by an experienced team with a disciplined approach and have paid dividends for more than 80 years across many market cycles. The Funds are committed to paying an annual distribution rate of 6% or more, providing reliable income to long-term investors. Shares can be purchased through our transfer agent or through a broker. For more information about Adams Funds, please visit: adamsfunds.com.

 
SFBayDuck said:
Energy stocks carrying me today, or at least balancing out the SE ballast - OKE (you beautiful, compounding *******), XOM, MRO, PEO, OXY (+7%!) all doing well.
Click to expand...
I’m so mad I called OKE out and had it in the 20s with that sweet dividend.  I sold it at like 40 and bought some growth that is probably significantly red today.  Talk about a bad move.

 
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tonydead said:
I get it, that's why I said all logic says I should be DCAing in.  But, as someone who put in 200K at the exact wrong time at the beginning of January 2016 I can tell you that it can pay off being patient a couple weeks as we always seems we have a nice dip at some point in the first quarter.  I mean there is a reason they make software that tracks running averages, formulas for support and confidence, swings and other signals.
Click to expand...
It's a very good point. That said, I always end up buying a bit of something on days like this if I have a lot of excess cash. Sometimes that doesn't work out, but usually it will be a good bet in the long run. It does suck to put money in and see it lose immediately.

 
Todem said:
Master list:

adsk

aep

amd

amt

amzn

ba

bmy

csco

cybr

cvx

cmi

de

deo

dis

dow

exc

fdx

fb

glpi

gis

googl

hd

jnj

jpm

ko

lmt

lyb

ma

mcd

mdu

mrk

msft

mo

nee

nke

nflx

nvda

pep

pfe

pg

pm

rtx

shop

t

tgt

tsco

tsla

ul

v

vz

wmt

closed ends we use:

ADX

PEP

GCV

Also like the buy writes:

diax

qyld

bxmx

High Risk High Reward names (mad money account):

plug

bldp

qs

rent

crsp

edit

ntla

rivn
Click to expand...
Do you have any recommendation on allocation of the above?

 
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