BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Is there an app that actually does work in Oregon? Because the one Google tells me is the only one that is legal in Oregon doesn't actually work for me - and the app says it's because I'm in Oregon!?
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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
General Malaise
Footballguy
The comparison to AMZN has been made several times in here and other places too in that AMZN also bled money to build and capture market share.
McBokonon
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
It suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucccccccccccccccccccckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkks.
You have to clean out your cache or whatever, install the Oregon Lottery App and THEN install the Oregon Scoreboard App. Once you create and account and deposit funds, you MIGHT be able to place some bets. It all depends on the position of the moon, the barometric pressure and whether or not anybody in your house is ovulating. It sometimes thinks you're in Oregon, other times thinks you're not and will sign you out randomly but only at the most inopportune times.
You CAN bet on volleyball, cricket, snooker, yachting, minor league sports BUT you absolutely CANNOT bet on college sports because won't anybody please think of the children! You also cannot parlay a side with a total in the same game. Wanna take KC on the Money Line and Parlay that with the OVER? Not here, pal. No sir. But you want a 10 team, 7-pt teaser? Come on in!
It's mind-numbingly, head-spinningly stupid. I have a reputable bookie if you want an intro......
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
I did it once, while comparing with AXON's technology.
DKNG and AMZN, not so much.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's not like I'm some big DKNG bull. I've traded it a bunch (poorly) and left a few shares on at the end as a gamble. It's less than half a percent of my account. I just got sucked in by the "tHeY cAn'T eVeN fIgUrE oUt HoW tO tUrN a ProFiT" hyperbole.
They're betting on branding and partnerships, plain and simple. No different than someone like AirBNB did. I can spin up an AirBNB clone using a wordpress template, there are travel sites that offer lower fees than AirBNB (even no-fee sites), they faced competition from already entrenched travel names in the beginning, etc.
Can they do it? Probably a longshot, hence why it's a gamble. I don't think the whales really matter here. They're not part of this new gambling market everyone is trying to capture. They're already gambling.
So does DKNG have an edge over the competitors? I dunno, maybe. They're certainly a better recognized brand already than BetMGM, caesars (I am a gambling degenerate and I honestly don't even know what Caesar's gambling app is called), and Wynn who had all the same casino advantages and was getting so badly smashed at capturing market share that they quit and tried to save face by saying they weren't even trying.
They have more users, by far, to market to. They have all their DFS customers that already have accounts and don't even have to do anything to get started.
They do have at least some pedigree. They have fully dominated the DFS market even though they don't "offer" anything different than Fanduel or draft.com or any of the other sites that got left in the dust by Draftkings.
The idea for the future here is that you're watching the game on your tablet, already connected to your DKNG account through their partnership with ESPN or whomever, and you can click a button that's sitting right there to place a bet.
Maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't. But they're going all in to bet on it. They could very easily just sit on their hands and show a profit before fading away if they wanted to.
They're betting on branding and partnerships, plain and simple. No different than someone like AirBNB did. I can spin up an AirBNB clone using a wordpress template, there are travel sites that offer lower fees than AirBNB (even no-fee sites), they faced competition from already entrenched travel names in the beginning, etc.
Can they do it? Probably a longshot, hence why it's a gamble. I don't think the whales really matter here. They're not part of this new gambling market everyone is trying to capture. They're already gambling.
So does DKNG have an edge over the competitors? I dunno, maybe. They're certainly a better recognized brand already than BetMGM, caesars (I am a gambling degenerate and I honestly don't even know what Caesar's gambling app is called), and Wynn who had all the same casino advantages and was getting so badly smashed at capturing market share that they quit and tried to save face by saying they weren't even trying.
They have more users, by far, to market to. They have all their DFS customers that already have accounts and don't even have to do anything to get started.
They do have at least some pedigree. They have fully dominated the DFS market even though they don't "offer" anything different than Fanduel or draft.com or any of the other sites that got left in the dust by Draftkings.
The idea for the future here is that you're watching the game on your tablet, already connected to your DKNG account through their partnership with ESPN or whomever, and you can click a button that's sitting right there to place a bet.
Maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't. But they're going all in to bet on it. They could very easily just sit on their hands and show a profit before fading away if they wanted to.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
To be clear, I don't personally make this argument. I'm very used to owning companies in land grab stage that don''t turn a profit and I'd be irritated if they tried.
I’d disagree that it was easily duplicated back in 1997. Also, AWS was green lighted for investment in 2003, 18 years ago or 6 years after IPO. That’s not even counting the time spent building their internal capabilities which became the idea that was green lighted. We are over 2 years from the merger announcement with the SPAC and almost 2 years after the DKNG IPO.
That said, I didn’t say Amazon was creating new business year 1. I said that when they were considered to be bleeding cash they were creating better logistics and building a moat as well as starting new businesses. DKNG is solely spending money on marketing which has no moat and no real loyalty. If MGM offers me $500 free bet after I already got my free bet on DraftKings, there’s nothing special holding me back.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Right, and you've been clear about that from the beginning. I wasn't referring to your viewpoint there. I totally get why people don't think DKNG's approach will work and have no problem with that. I was referring to the stuff a few pages back where I originally got sucked in because the argument was that the reason they weren't turning a profit is because they're so incompetent they couldn't figure out how to charge a vig and keep the profit.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
For sure. Though there's nothing to stop flipkey from offering you $100 to book a house through them instead of AirBNB, nor to stop Yahoo DFS from offering $100 to play their DFS tournament this week instead of Draftkings. Yet everyone still goes back to AirBNB for bookings and to Draftkings for DFS. They get comfortable with the interface, everyone else is using it, etc. And Draftkings is also good about doing the kitchy leveling up/rewards stuff that has little real value but that casual people love, and spend ungodly amounts of money to establish for themselves in videogames, on reddit, etc.
Realistically, I don't think Draftkings will dominate the gambling market. But if they're one of the 3-4 that do I think there is enough meat on the bone there to make good money long-term. So really the question is can they keep a bunch of random cash grabbers out of the equation and I think the answer is yes. They've showed they know how to capture and keep people's attention at every step so far. And while branding and interface isn't necessarily a top tier business model, it has worked for plenty of businesses.
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General Malaise
Footballguy
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Love the the first paragraph, you can write, but it's not relevant.
2nd paragraph I also enjoy, but again, as an argument against, can't buy it. Not indicative of an overall market. Sorry Oregon. And sorry FanDuel while we're at it.
3rd paragraph is where we digress. In my most simple terms, we both know what it's like to be a degenerate. You just want a drink, or a smoke, or a bet, do you not? (And no, I never mentioned freebies, you can go look). But to be first-to-market (more or less) matters, no question. The easy app to hit on your phone will be all that matters. AYKM? That's like your favorite bartender, right there in bed.
Yeah, that matters. And it isn't cheap to get those customers. But once you've got em, very few are leaving is my bet.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
We are creatures of habit, GM, path of least resistance, all that.
DKNG isn't for pros, it's not what they're about. Market share will win in the end. We will see.
DKNG isn't for pros, it's not what they're about. Market share will win in the end. We will see.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I closed out the short, so I'll be quieter on this one. I don't like living on the dark side of the moon.
culdeus
Footballguy
Is it not possible to just vpn and location spoof yourself somewhere to get around this?
TripItUp
Footballguy
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
I love it that you did that. Mad props.
I'm just trying to get you to think of DKNG as a weekender somewhere, where instead you trying to find your fix for an hour, you can just pull out your phone and at least get a bet in.
Now think of 1,000,000 guys just like you. In some big ### states. Pulling out their phones like their John Daly and Dennis Rodman. That's money. We can share EPS notes in Cabo around 2027, with super gay DKNG trucker hats if you like.
culdeus
Footballguy
I don't see DKNG as making money off this long term. Vegas books pay about 7-11% of their revenue to the line services and overhead. Some years books can operate at a loss. They do it more as a service to the whales than to make a killing.
Locals operate in the black because they just take whatever line is online and use it, if they get middled it's fine they'll get it back next week.
DKNG maybe can operate on less expenses, but they need to demonstrate they can pull people away from locals and whatever Vegas is offering. Not really seeing it. It's a really tough biz.
Can they operate an online casino? That's printing money. That's how most of the current online books make their profit.
Locals operate in the black because they just take whatever line is online and use it, if they get middled it's fine they'll get it back next week.
DKNG maybe can operate on less expenses, but they need to demonstrate they can pull people away from locals and whatever Vegas is offering. Not really seeing it. It's a really tough biz.
Can they operate an online casino? That's printing money. That's how most of the current online books make their profit.
McBokonon
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Absolutely. Daily Fantasy sucks for 95% of it's users. 20% rake is greedy as #### and is the reason tons of other platforms with different approaches are surfacing.
Agreed 100%. I have accounts with MGM, Ceasars, and Draftkings. I'd rate them Ceasars > DK > MGM. I don't like that MGM doesn't allow teasers. UX on DK is nice but they are built around "odds boost".
I'd say 80% of the time when I check their "Odds Boost" promo... the odds are still worse than the standard Ceasars lines for the same Prop. Hell, Caesars even pays half out on a 2 team parlay if one side pushes. Most other places call that no-action. DK included I think.
IMO DK is built around fleecing casual players. That only lasts soo long.
Also bingo. I'm not a heavy player at ALL but I have noticed an uptick in caesars offers from both Tunica and Vegas since becoming active on their platform. That's one area Draftkings sucks in comparison.
Factor that with generally inferior lines, targeting a lessor quality customer, lacking any B&M Casino tie ins, and a serious cash burn issue..... DK is ripe for being a casualty.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Agree on the margins, that's in the business model, is it not?
But can a "local" offer odds on Phil Mickelson's next drive to be in-bounds? Or the next free throw to go down? Who needs to "demonstrate" that? People will take it all day long and then some, once it gets going.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
NajehHejan
Footballguy
(Gulp)
Getting close to DKNG needing its own thread
Getting close to DKNG needing its own thread
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Insoxicated
Naw. I'm like GM, I don't like to short it. I've even traded it on some swings... but no way I'd invest in it long term under the premise of it being a market force in 5+ years. I think they'll be gobbled up within that timeframe.
Just figured I'd add insight as an actual customer of both theirs and their competitors with no axe to grind in any direction.
But I'm no expert.. so I'll stop talking about it here.
General Malaise
Footballguy
culdeus said:
Wait, are you asking me if I want to go through a bunch of effort to bet through the Oregon sports app that I already use legally on my phone in Oregon?
General Malaise
Footballguy
Oh, and I can't bet on sports through the Oregon Scoreboard App in Oregon on my computer because the software is out of date. 
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Fair enough, no hard feelings, sorry.
It's an interesting story/stock on a board full of gamblers, no doubt. But I'll tap out, it's time.
Appreciate the insight from all, especially the bears. Very helpful to hear both sides, and god knows this isn't football.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Well, you're still doing better than me. The Scoreboard app doesn't seem to exist in my Google app storeOh, and I can't bet on sports through the Oregon Scoreboard App in Oregon on my computer because the software is out of date.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
I figured it out. Google won't put betting apps in their store. So I had to download straight from the app's site. Shouldn't be this hard to flush my money down the toilet.
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Insoxicated
General Malaise
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
No, you CAN bet on the Dodgers. You can even live bet them on your phone from the all nude scrip club after purchasing an ounce of purple weed while indulging in an 11% ABV IPA (assuming the app doesn't log you out or tell you that your 'geo token is invalid). What you CANNOT do is parlay the Dodgers with the Over in the same game.
I can also bet on the following: Table Tennis, Handball, Gaelic Football, Lacrosse and something called "Bandy" (she's a fine girl) @SWC.......HOW---EVER *Stephen A Smith voice* I cannot place a bet on the NCAA Championship game between Bama and Georgia because a lawmaker in Salem doesn't think it is moral to bet on college sports because the kids don't get paid. I'm not kidding. That's the reason. That's the state I live in. It is festooned by bumbling idiots who make decisions like the drunken Roman emperor Caligula.
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Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
There was a time when I dug into stocks, where #### would hit the fan like this, and I found myself digging for dollars, but in the end, did better with the companies that held strong. Like AAPL's doing. And OKE, ####er didn't budge.
Those times were long ago and before analytics became so easy to dig up the goods. So my question is does that hold true? Strength during weakness bares out in the end?
People are bargain hunting and finding some nice deals like Netflix, but off a double top, down $150/20%, or HUBS (mentioned on here) down $250/30%. As hard as it may be, are the better buys right now the ones that haven't been whacked?
Especially in an environment like this. It's human nature to go bargain shopping. But doesn't that also show it was overpriced to begin with, not to mention other cracks?
Tell me I'm wrong in looking for the strength (relatively speaking) during a sell-off? Thanks.
Those times were long ago and before analytics became so easy to dig up the goods. So my question is does that hold true? Strength during weakness bares out in the end?
People are bargain hunting and finding some nice deals like Netflix, but off a double top, down $150/20%, or HUBS (mentioned on here) down $250/30%. As hard as it may be, are the better buys right now the ones that haven't been whacked?
Especially in an environment like this. It's human nature to go bargain shopping. But doesn't that also show it was overpriced to begin with, not to mention other cracks?
Tell me I'm wrong in looking for the strength (relatively speaking) during a sell-off? Thanks.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
That doesn't sound so bad. Here in Utah we're still working on being able to legally carry two drinks at one time, pour a drink where a minor can see it being poured, or order an adult beverage without having to order food with it.
Placing a bet on the Jazz or buying purple ganja is a looonnnngggggggg ways off.
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BeTheMatch
Footballguy
I did, but that other scoreboard app is not allowed in the Google play store. But I found another way to download it, so it's all set up now. Thanks
kevzilla
Footballguy
This has always been a pretty good idea. One concern I have is that it still seems tech-centered, so I'm not sure whether a given stock is strong or whether its sector is next for bashing. But if you have AAPL and OKE, just pour yourself a drink and toast wealth creation.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I have a friend that likes to wager on sports. He always says "parlay" is French for "stupid".
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
No, I shouldn't complain, you're right. We have it great out here, despite the plethora of dum dums that have proliferated here recently. It's nice to be treated like a grown-up and have the freedoms and liberties to abuse our bodies and pollute our minds with sins as much or as little as we like (or our spouses will tolerate).
If you had told 21 year old GM living in god-fearing Mississippi where a nug of weed was jail time that at 48 I'd be 25 years deep in a state where weed is legal, mushrooms are decriminalized, beers and wine flow like great rivers, sports gambling available on my smart phone (what's a smart phone, I'd ask!) and over 100 strip clubs where the girls leave nothing to the imagination and will entertain you all night for a few drinks and $50, well.....21 YO GM would have stolen a buggy and some oxen and headed west, dysentery be damned.
General Malaise
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Banks and energy lead to a nice day
