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Stock Thread (39 Viewers)

General Malaise said:
Well yes, of course I can source better coffee than SBUX but I don't want to spend a fortune getting coffee beans that have been pooped out of a baby sloth or whatever.  For the money, a bag of SBUX French Roast from Costco does just fine.  
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Take all that $ your saving now since weed has come down in price so much and treat yourself to some good beans. Seriously. You know how many good roasters there are in Portland, but just give Nossa a try. No, I don't work there, but am just a diehard convert. 

 
beef said:
TQQQ gave me a quick "Oh ####!" moment before I figured out it split.   Doesn't mater, but missed the news on that happening.  
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UPRO is my largest holding in my Roth and I had forgotten. Think they announced in December but I thought it was later this month.   

 
stbugs said:
No #### and I hate coffee. WTF happened today that I am unaware of?
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Tech Wreck continues. Market thinks we will never have growth stocks ever again because we are going to go from 0% to 1% overnight rate.

As silly as this sounds.....this is exactly what I talked about in November of 2021. The markets initial reaction in a rising rate environment......hates this. And expect more red and blood in the days, weeks and months ahead. 

Recalibration. This is all this is. And more importantly opportunity to get into some mega cap tech names coming off 20%-30% and some 40% off their all time highs. 

The "no revenue" high spec stuff has been annihilated.

But the real value happens when the selling hits the Dow and S&P names and ultimately that is where most of my powder remaining will go to work. I expect some correction territory stuff in those index’s too at some point.

Patience.

 
Todem said:
Tech Wreck continues. Market thinks we will never have growth stocks ever again because we are going to go from 0% to 1% overnight rate.

As silly as this sounds.....this is exactly what I talked about in November of 2021. The markets initial reaction in a rising rate environment......hates this. And expect more red and blood in the days, weeks and months ahead. 

Recalibration. This is all this is. And more importantly opportunity to get into some mega cap tech names coming off 20%-30% and some 40% off their all time highs. 

The "no revenue" high spec stuff has been annihilated.

But the real value happens when the selling hits the Dow and S&P names and ultimately that is where most of my powder remaining will go to work. I expect some correction territory stuff in those index’s too at some point.

Patience.
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Todem:

i have a large amount of cash on the sidelines.  I’m 55 with roughly 80% in 401k and non ira then the rest in cash to play with.  What’s your recommendation for cash portion?

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
I guess last two days were just a result of the fed being slightly less hawkish than people were worried about, but now we're back to our regular "interest rates are rising by a tiny amount so big tech companies for whom this will be a rounding error need to be sold into bankruptcy" routine.

I think we get one rate raise and before we can do the second the numbers slow down enough.  Like 20% of the CPI index on this recent report was oil and cars, both of which have nothing to do with inflation (and the same can be said about a lot of other things that were affected as well).
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Yeah. I don't think it will happen quite that early, but I'll take the under on the 3.5 hikes being estimated in the FF futures market earlier.

 
General Malaise said:
Who really knows, but I have a feeling the resurgence of Covid in China is going to have a massive impact on supply chain, which is already clogged like my arteries. 
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All +181 case they reported?

 
Helaire-ious said:
What's the call on Draft Kings stock, buy or sell it if you own it?
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I sold a little but still holding the bag on some too. 

At this point for what I have left, I'm going to wait it out. Could be a while before it gets back to where I bought it at (mid 40s) but am not selling it at this price.  Still optimistic that there could be a good future but I'd be a liar if I said that I haven't completely soured on this space.

 
stlrams said:
Todem:

i have a large amount of cash on the sidelines.  I’m 55 with roughly 80% in 401k and non ira then the rest in cash to play with.  What’s your recommendation for cash portion?
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Keep that powder dry right now.......trust me on this.

 
Helaire-ious said:
What's the call on Draft Kings stock, buy or sell it if you own it?
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Sold out on 12/28 so I need to wait a couple more weeks before I consider buying it again.  Under 24 now.  I probably won't consider buying back in unless it dips below 20, maybe even lower.  Unless I'm misreading the options chain, the money looks like it's still on the sell side.   

 
JPM down about 5% pre-market. 

Looks very attractive here. Taking a nibble in this one today.

Citi also looking cheap. 

 
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ghostguy123 said:
Same here.  My Roth (not a ton of money compared to my 403b) is like 95% cash at the moment.  

I do have a few low buy limits set.  Doubt they hit today but ya never know.
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In terms of megacap tech and large tech stocks I have been buying these big dips.

MSFT

AAPL

SHOP

NVDA

CRM

ADSK

AMD

NFLX

FB

RBLX

These stocks have been beaten down (MSFT down 13% from it’s all time high) to down right wrecked from all time highs.

To me these are the cream of the crop. I also include Google and FB but they are not nearly as down yet…..yet.

But looking for one signal is not what I do. I buy stocks….not index’s.

Do I think we see more selling in the Dow and S&P? Absolutely. But the Nasdaq is in correction territory and some of those stocks (look at Shopify as it has been hammered as well as RBLX and CRM). So tech stocks I am buying and not timing bottoms.

The next shoe to fall is when we get that panic in bluechips.

JPM is getting roasted today. Considered a defensive stock in a rising interest rate environment, it being down 6% is a buying opportunity in a class A financial stock at a very low multiple and good solid dividend for a long term hold.

As far as defensive stocks I like right now?

JPM

NVS

UL

MDU

EXC

Chemicals have rallied that we suggested a while ago in LYB and DOW.

Industrials have rallied, as well as utilities and staples…..but again…I think the market is playing chicken with the Fed….the only sector rising rates have been priced into is Mega and Large Tech and the pure speculation no revenue stocks. The broad blue chip names? Naaaaa not yet.

 
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Todem said:
In terms of megacap tech and large tech stocks I have been buying these big dips.

MSFT

AAPL

SHOP

NVDA

CRM

ADSK

AMD

NFLX

FB

RBLX

These stocks have been beaten down (MSFT down 13% from it’s all time high) to down right wrecked from all time highs.

To me these are the cream of the crop. I also include Google and FB but they are not nearly as down yet…..yet.

But looking for one signal is not what I do. I buy stocks….not index’s.

Do I think we see more selling in the Dow and S&P? Absolutely. But the Nasdaq is in correction territory and some of those stocks (look at Shopify as it has been hammered as well as RBLX and CRM). So tech stocks I am buying and not timing bottoms.

The next shoe to fall is when we get that panic in bluechips.

JPM is getting roasted today. Considered a defensive stock in a rising interest rate environment, it being down 6% is a buying opportunity in a class A financial stock at a very low multiple and good solid dividend for a long term hold.

As far as defensive stocks I like right now?

JPM

NVS

UL

MDU

EXC
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I normally don't like to ask you for specific advice, but you recommended these stocks so I'm curious on your take.

LYB - I ended up dumping 3% of my portfolio in it as I DCA down.  I'm now up over 10% in less than 2 months.  I'm thinking I should trim half to raise cash.  This seems like a stock that might drift down with a correction.  I picked up shares on 12-2 at $84.  People were probably tired of me spamming the board about your recommendation being a table pounding buy.

DOW - 1.25% of my portfolio.  Only up 6% overall, but could trim 1/4 that's up about 12 in the last month.

I haven't seen you list these recently as defensive positions or great buys.  Seems like a place to trim to add cash.

 
Todem said:
the only sector rising rates have been priced into is Mega and Large Tech and the pure speculation no revenue stocks. The broad blue chip names? Naaaaa not yet.
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I know I've asked a few variations of this before but I'm still unclear what your opinion is on it.  When the blue chips start falling, do you think the mega and large tech will take an even bigger hit, or in situations like this does stuff that's already corrected tend to hold up well when the blue chips and spy start falling?

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I know I've asked a few variations of this before but I'm still unclear what your opinion is on it.  When the blue chips start falling, do you think the mega and large tech will take an even bigger hit, or in situations like this does stuff that's already corrected tend to hold up well when the blue chips and spy start falling?
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The mega Tech and Large Tech will probably go down too but not nearly as much as the bluechips when the infection hits the blue chips sector. 

Right now we have seen a classic rotation into more defensive names from mega and large tech. And of course the speculative Covid Stay at home names have been wiped clean (ZM, DOCU, Peleton, Draft Kings etc of the world). 

This is the first rung......the blue chips will get hit harder when it is there turn but I am not timing bottoms....never have and never will. If I see a great company that has been beaten down that i like long term I start buying. 

The ones I listed have been hit pretty hard (some more than others) if they go down another 5-10% I can’t worry about that.....because long term I see 25-35-45-50-100% upside over the long term (3 years, 5 years, 10 years). 

So yeah it tends to hold up pretty well when others start to fall....but they are not immune. 

Case in point today the NASDAQ is up, the Dow is down. At some point we will see a more synchronized sell off.....and that will be that moment of a true capitulation of some sort. I don’t expect a crash.....not at all. But again 10-15% sell off is very much in the realm of what I expect....it could happen over days, weeks or a month....but the way the markets move these days.....it can be inside a week and boom we start going back up at some point again. 

Low to mid single digit gain on the S&P this year is what I project. A rough sideway track till we get to 4th quarter....earnings are going to be the driver now for stocks.....not zero interest rate and a accommodating federal reserve. 

That time is coming to an end.....inflaton has completely gotten away from them.....and they know it. And imo the Fed has become far too political over th last decade or so......much to the detriment of free capital markets. 

The roosters are coming home to roost in terms of way too easy for too long. This reminds me of 2018.....and I keep coming back to 2018. The Fed tightened.......the White House went nuts because the stock market was politicized.....the Fed eased again and things were going really well an then Covid hit......had the cover crash (huge opportunity as we pounded the table in here about it) and now.....now we have supply and demand issues up the ying yang.

They cannot do that again.......or we will see this inflation get even worse. The market has to digest this hence why I am calling for a recalibration of asset prices in the short term which creates the long term opportunity to profit off of impatient, irrational and inexperienced investors. 

 
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BassNBrew said:
I normally don't like to ask you for specific advice, but you recommended these stocks so I'm curious on your take.

LYB - I ended up dumping 3% of my portfolio in it as I DCA down.  I'm now up over 10% in less than 2 months.  I'm thinking I should trim half to raise cash.  This seems like a stock that might drift down with a correction.  I picked up shares on 12-2 at $84.  People were probably tired of me spamming the board about your recommendation being a table pounding buy.

DOW - 1.25% of my portfolio.  Only up 6% overall, but could trim 1/4 that's up about 12 in the last month.

I haven't seen you list these recently as defensive positions or great buys.  Seems like a place to trim to add cash.
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They are high beta stocks.....no doubt. You can book a good trade and trim here to build some powder. Would not be a bad thing. 

I love LYB.....love it. But it will go down in a correction Beta is 1.29 and Dow 1.25 respectively. 

The dividends though are juicy and reliable. 

 
pecorino said:
Not here to disagree with the oracle of FBG, but what about i-bonds for some of that cash?
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I have been saying TIP for a few weeks as well as floating rate bond funds.

He can use ETF’s for that.

TIP for the I-Bonds and a floating loan ETF. 

I have no idea what he has at his disposal. 

 
And the Dow is rallying a little here into the close......again it has been a buy the dip market for years.....but the real damage to the DOW and S&P is not far off......I am sticking by this thesis. Just have some cash ready.....be in quality and be out of the way of fixed income that is not TIPS or floating rate loan funds. Ultra short Munis are ok too. But that’s it for me. I even lightened the load on GNMA’s. 

Have a wonderful long weekend. I get a free day off Monday....whooooooo!

 
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I've looked around and can't find an answer, so I ask here.

Now that $PTON is being removed from NASDAQ and replaced by $ODFL, which index will Peloton be traded on?

Thanks to all

 
drunken slob said:
I've looked around and can't find an answer, so I ask here.

Now that $PTON is being removed from NASDAQ and replaced by $ODFL, which index will Peloton be traded on?

Thanks to all
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It’ll still be the NASDAQ. It’s just getting dropped from the NASDAQ 100 index.

eta: maybe not understanding your question. It’ll be on the NASDAQ exchange and being dropped from the NASDAQ 100 index doesn’t move it to another index or exchange.

 
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So activision got bought for 95 a share but is currently trading for only 85? What is the risk to buying some at 85 here? Just that the buyout doesn’t go through?

 
In for some ATVI too.

Did a couple other buys (adding to positions) of UUUU and SOXL.  

 
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Nugget said:
Flipped the ATVI I purchased after Christmas for some SOFI and TQQQ this morning. 
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I still have a decent sized TQQQ position but will add more if this drop continues.  Been thinking of adding more SOFI too.  That one seems due for a pop.  Maybe after these recent target price cuts settle a bit.  

 
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