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Stock Thread (27 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Capella
Footballguy
It was poke at Amazon doing squat while the market was up being something that happens often
Capella
Footballguy
Ahhhhh lol ok I got it now. I’m slow today.
Yea, it sucks. I’ll have the chance to buy some more in the next few months but wonder if I should allocate elsewhere.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Ouch
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
We got chickens roosting...dead cats bouncing. This is the worst!
identikit
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
Probably not.
I get giddy when analysts can’t see the forest thru the trees. Their global growth runway is MASSIVE.
This is not a US growth story anymore (which btw they are still doing).
Netflix has the best in class content first of all. They also have cracked maybe 10% of the North American viewers. So plenty of runway there as well.
But overseas? They are in the first inning.
So take advantage of this. If the after hours dip holds up tomorrow they are down 34% ytd
They beat on the top and bottom…..nervous hands dumping after hours. Let em.
It is very short sighted to think that Netflix is done growing because they are reading way too hard on the tea leaves of guidance.
Is there competition? Yeah of course. Is it going to really carve into Netflix long term? I don’t think so because it is all about content and Netflix is the king of content.
People are loyal to content and Netflix has a far more proven track record then everyone IMO.
Yes the stock is expensive…..but aren’t all growth stocks? You pay up for growth…..when you want value you buy plenty of other names for their dividend and reliable low beta in volatile markets.
But to me Netflix is a pure play on the streaming revolution and the content wars.
DIS is also in that top tier along with AMZN. Then you have all the rest IMO.
Not everyone is going to survive. But those three absolutely will.
Content/growth/improving margins
DIS is all in on streaming
AMZN is a diversified play on streaming
NFLX is the pure play and if after hours holds up it is on sale tomorrow.
Good time to average down if you bought it recently and a great time to dip in if you do not own it.
Going long on this puppy.
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Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
You have to go back a decade to see NFLX dropping 20% in a day.
This proves how terrified the stock market really is and lot’s of nervous money is going to present some great opportunities very soon.
It already has in the mega tech sector and this is just solidifying that.
At some point it will seep into the blue chips and we will have that more broad based recalibration we talked about.
This proves how terrified the stock market really is and lot’s of nervous money is going to present some great opportunities very soon.
It already has in the mega tech sector and this is just solidifying that.
At some point it will seep into the blue chips and we will have that more broad based recalibration we talked about.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
My SPXS options I previously posted from last month expire tomorrow. I sold some of the 17 at a profit yesterday. Got nervous and sold some of the 18 today at loss. Even with the profit, down a couple hundred dollars. After selling bought more 18 relatively cheaply with a 2/21 expiration when the market was close to the high today. Held the 19 & 20 that expire tomorrow because they weren't worth much but with the sell off 19 in the money and 20 close.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
When recalibration hits blue chips wouldn't NFLX continue to go down? If there is a 10%, 20% or even saw someone predicting a 50% correction from here, won't everything just get annihilated, including NFLX?
Todem
Footballguy
I keep getting asked this question.
We are not going thru a recessionary correction.
And I do not consider NFLX a mature blue chip. They are a pure growth company.
This is a recalibration of monetary policy. Highly speculative no revenue stocks have been slaughtered.
Mega Tech and Large Tech have heavily corrected.
Money has rotated into staples, utilities, REITS Industrials, materials, energy and financials.
The next leg of the correction is in the so called safer sectors.
50% correction!!!!! Someone else can speak for themselves on that one.
This is a stock pickers market.
Yeah some mega tech may suffer a little more….but a lot of them are well off their highs by 20 plus percent.
Are these outstanding, cash flow monsters all of a sudden not going to make money and stop growing because the Fed goes from 0 to 1 this year!!!!
Of course not!!!!
Anwyay I have talked about this a lot……the next leg of recalibration (which is another term for moderate correction) is coming in due time.
There will be no “Fed Put” because the economy does not need more stimulus!!! It needs to cool down demand here a little but so inflation can get under control.
And as I have said many many times….markets do not like the initial jolt of the IV being pulled out of the patient. Typically and I have seen this movie so many times….markets tend to correct in the first six months of the first hike.
That is why when I see some pundits say well the market has already priced in 4 hikes…..what!!!! The Nasdaq has….we have seen that…. Not the S&P and Dow.
That’s next.
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stinkzmagee
Footballguy
So in your opinion, cash generating Nasdaq names 20% or so off of their highs are in buy territory? And we would look for a similar drop in the other indexes before adding?
James Daulton
Footballguy
The only thing that makes me wonder about a stock market correction is where else will folks park their cash?
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
Know what you are buying. I posted a list of what I own and look to add post 20% sell offs.
NFLX is a great example. If this thing does sell off 20% tomorrow I am absolutely adding more. It has been a decade since NFLX has had a 20% drop in a day. That is a nice sale.
So yes. Excellent cash flow type names with great earnings growth are absolutely buy targets when they are off 20 plus percent from all time highs.
When you have a long term outlook when things go on sale….you hope you have some cash to buy more. If not you sit tight…ride out the volatility and be patient.
I already deployed cash into those kinds of names (NVDA, SHOP, CRM, ADSK) and also picked up JPM on the way down. Has my timing been perfect? No. And trying to time bottoms is fools gold. But I am happy picking up a lot of these names 15-20% off their highs….because the next 3-5 years they will make much higher highs.
As long as you have a longer term outlook you will be fine.
For my current income and growth and income people sit tight and be patient for when the blue chips and bonds start showing a lot more weakness….we will have that moment at some point….and it may happen fast, may take weeks but we will signal when value happens in the big dividend type names.
And it may only be a smaller correction in comparison to the Nasdaq (highly likely it will) but it will happen before May in my estimation. There are cracks already showing in investor sentiment. It’s a matter of time when the weak stomachs throw in the towel here soon.
Todem
Footballguy
In a typical year we see anywhere from 5-7% corrections all the time.
2015 we had 3 10% corrections
2018 we had a 28% correction peak to trough
2020 we went down in the pandemic crash 30 plus percent
People have short memories.
It will sit in cash…..then folks like myself who built some cash will buy the dip and then the sellers will shuffle back in and chase it up.
Rinse and repeat.
And I typically am always fully invested. This is only the 4th time I deliberately built a 25% plus cash position (did it back in November and have deployed about 10% into beaten down Nasdaq high quality names) in my investing life.
This is not typical for me. But the writing and signals were so strong for me.
Let’s talk about bubbles. The market in general is not in a bubble. There are some pockets of bubbles.
1. High high speculation in IPO’s, Spacs and low priced stocks which have been already sold off and have been taken to the woodshed. I have a few of those names but I expect them to recover. If they don’t “…….well that was the risk I was willing to accept in those names.
2. Crypto - this may be the biggest bubble in our lifetime and when this puppy bursts…..it will be U G L Y.
3. MEME stocks- RIP
So again I am not doom and gloom at all. I am talking about a simple normal correction. But what happens is it snowballs…..and becomes a self fulfilling prophecy and goes a little farther than it should. Always happens. That is why it is impossible to time a bottom. Just have a list of the best quality names and go shopping when the sale hits and buckle in for the long term.
Keep plowing money into your 401K’s every single solitary month without fail.
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So I was sitting on the ####ter today and a thought comes to mind. Todem seems to have a pretty firm conviction about this selloff that's in process. Why did he only go to 20-25% cash? Only conclusion I could come to is that no one appreciates 3 home runs if you have one strikeout in there. 4 singles trump 3 home runs and whiff when you are managing other people's money for a living.
Based on your posts here I'm sure you are right more often than wrong. What do you do to keep from going "all in" (by that I mean significantly overweighted) when there's such a table pounding buy that is an obvious win?
James Daulton
Footballguy
Thanks Todem. I can't buy individual stock through my IRA but what I can do is buy either stock or bond funds. What I've been doing the last week is shifting into bond funds. I did this before the covid decline and it worked out very well as I shifted out of bonds into stocks as the market went down. I am currently 2/3rd bond 1/3 stocks ATM and I'm prepared to stay this way for a bit. I'd rather lock in most of my gains and not risk the downside for the immediate future.
Added 15 at $407. Never owned it before but it was at this price in summer 2018. PE of 30 and P/S of 6 is not bad for the streaming leader. Will keep watching in case it dips even more in the early morning. Lock it in for a few years.
This is not an "I told you so" post nor is it meant to bash. But the SPY is trading below the levels we saw on Dec 1, 2, 3 (granted, by only about 1%). However, it's down about 5%, no small number, since Jan 5th. Bumping this post to emphasize how difficult it is to time tops or time bottoms.
No one is perfect at timing, there could be tax implications and if you miss a big upswing you can miss a chunk of the total return. Makes sense to me. I added cash in November, wish I sold more, would have been nice to almost double to add it back at a big discount.
Todem
Footballguy
My inherent fiduciary duty to manage risk.
What kind of risk adjusted return does one need to accomplish their goals?
That is what I do not only for myself but for other people.
Like you said…lots of singles, doubles, some home runs and the occasional strike out.
And a more predictable ride getting there.
Todem
Footballguy
Very nice.
Know what you own in bonds too though.
I would overweight TIPS and Floating Rate (credit driven bonds). Bonds will also lose some NAV (Net Asset Value) when interest rates rise.
In my own 401K I am sitting on 20% in a money market mutual fund (rebalanced before Thanksgiving in that too) waiting for that moment to push it into my stock funds when I see that capitulation like behavior.
And speaking of capitulation NFLX being sold off like this after hours is clearly irrational. Basically a throwing in the towel moment that screams “Their growth is over”.
That is crazy talk…..the runway is huge overseas…..HUGE.
Let’s see what happens tomorrow at the open.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I've owned it for years. Bought at $144. Was so tempted to sell over $600 but a name I want to own and keep. Sometimes I like to try and time what I see in the market, like buying more SPXS options today, most times I prefer to let good stocks ride.
FWIW, I'll be selling all of those options early tomorrow. This "feels" (I know, not an investment strategy but a fraction of my overall portfolio) like we're close to a bottom.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
Oh no worries, and I completely agree, which I why I advocate just long-term buying and holding, which works out better for most people. I think if we look back in a few years, whether you buy in December 2021, January 2022 or February 2022, all are going to be considered good buying opportunities.
Props are certainly due to Todem for nailing this dip though. Very well thought out and impressive.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
Completely agree... I'm shocked how long and far these have been able to run on basically nothing but speculation, but the market can certainly remain irrational longer than anyone would expect.
David Dodds
Administrator
FAANG is being replaced with MGGA (Microsoft, Gamestop, Google, and Apple). And yes I am still adding Gamestop shares. The price is beyond wrong right now. I am going to get rich or die buying.
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GreenNGold
Footballguy
You are correct about the price of GME being beyond wrong, but you are beyond wrong on the direction.
I know you won't do it, but you really need to sell and preserve the wealth you have left, while you still have some.
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David Dodds
Administrator
I appreciate you worried about my portfolio of one stock, but I am going to keep doing this my way. Gamestop has hired 400+ executives away from tech giants. They have $1.4B cash on hand and no debt. The company you think Gamestop is isn't the company I am invested in. I am invested in what Ryan Cohen and his team is building. At today's closing price, the company is being valued at just $7.8 Billion.
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
Im adding more soon, one of the safer plays out thereDr. Octopus said:
I'm going to try to be civil here, but this is going the way of Greek shipping companies, Chinese hog farmers, and Spin Bikes.
I just bought FLGT at $65.04. GME closed at 101.42 after hours. I'll wager $200 that FLGT closes up more on a percentage basis than GME by 6-30-22 (clears both 2nd qtr earnings reports and moon launches).
You in for $200 straight up? I'll send to someone else to hold if you like, but I'm a real dude ready to "come out" if you want to dance on this. I'll go up to $500 if you are interested, I'll just hedge on your side as my side is good for $40 a share.
