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Stock Thread (42 Viewers)

James Daulton said:
The question is when to get back in...
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sorry I wasn’t more clear. Sooner than you think the time is right. You’ve already bagged a triple. I’d try to lock that in or at least start to lock it in. 

2Squirrels1Nut said:
Who? 
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id rather not say. Kind of rubbing salt in the wound. It was here in this thread 20 months ago. 

Capella said:
Yea, figured. Sold it all for him, told him he’s gonna miss out on a profitable second half of the year but whatever. Doesn’t matter to me. 
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unit he’s living in your spare bedroom 

 
BassNBrew said:
sorry I wasn’t more clear. Sooner than you think the time is right. You’ve already bagged a triple. I’d try to lock that in or at least start to lock it in. 

id rather not say. Kind of rubbing salt in the wound. It was here in this thread 20 months ago. 

unit he’s living in your spare bedroom 
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Absolutely not 

 
James Daulton said:
It feels like there's still way more downward energy than upward.
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I would suggest there you go back and read the post in this thread from late March 2 years ago. People were predicting Dow 15,000 to Dow 10,000. It was mass gloom and doom. Then in a blink of an eye we were up 20%. Manny still weren’t convinced and thought the Market would take a second drop which never happened. After a few more months we were back to record high range

 
James Daulton said:
It feels like there's still way more downward energy than upward.
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I agree their could be a little more downside, until  were are clear if Russia does or doesn’t make another move and if the FED takes a .25 or .50 rate increase in March.  I am watching several stocks to buy including FB, but I think they go lower near term.

 
Capella said:
Thanks. The thing is, since I’ve opened this account for him he’s up like 35%. I told him even if he suffers a short-term drop a) he doesn’t need the money to live (his bills are covered each month by SS and VA) and b) it will rebound. No dice. 
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Happy to read he's up. :)  

I'm not a professional in the industry but have become a defacto "advisor" for many friends.  I always ask them to remember if they agree with "buy low, sell high" and they always do.  Then I ask if what they are considering doing (it's always a panic sell) jives with that old piece of advice.  FWIW 

 
2Squirrels1Nut said:
Happy to read he's up. :)  

I'm not a professional in the industry but have become a defacto "advisor" for many friends.  I always ask them to remember if they agree with "buy low, sell high" and they always do.  Then I ask if what they are considering doing (it's always a panic sell) jives with that old piece of advice.  FWIW 
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he told me he’d buy back in when it starts to back up. Asked him how will he know when that happens. I hate this phrase but it is what it is. 

 
If you're listening to a talking head on TV and they don't disclose their position (short/long) then they probably shouldn't be listened to for financial advise or at least viewed as "entertainment only".   I've had to have that talk with my dad and FIL before.  

 
BassNBrew said:
I would suggest there you go back and read the post in this thread from late March 2 years ago. People were predicting Dow 15,000 to Dow 10,000. It was mass gloom and doom. Then in a blink of an eye we were up 20%. Manny still weren’t convinced and thought the Market would take a second drop which never happened. After a few more months we were back to record high range
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Then you had a guy like Tom Lee, Fundstrat, be all calm and cool back in March/April 2020, saying he sees lots of buying opportunities and forecasting ridiculous S&P targets that later hit and then some.  He' was just on CNBC being his calm cool self again.    

 
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James Daulton said:
The question now will be to when start shifting back out of cash into stocks.  Did a decent job moving to 2/3rds cash close to the top, but getting back in is tricky.  Sitting at 1/3rd stock funds and 2/3rds bond funds currently.  

Assuming the market is down big today, I may start to nibble back in.  But everything just feels like the market has more to go down, but this market has been crazy the last 10 years. 
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im almost in the exact same position except my 70% is cash equivalents, not bonds. I went from 30% stocks to 40% today. 

 
fruity pebbles said:
im almost in the exact same position except my 70% is cash equivalents, not bonds. I went from 30% stocks to 40% today. 
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During the covid meltdown that's how I did it.  I moved like 10% into stocks every 2k drop until I was like 85% stock at around DOW 22k.  Then as the market went back up I reversed and started moving 10% into bonds starting at DOW 27k.  I was 75% stocks by DOW 35k and was actually behind YTD until this last move down.  Now I'm like 1% better than the market and the more it moves down the more I'll pick up from a return perspective (ie. a less negative return).  Another down day tomorrow and I'll start to move back into stocks. 

 
Good report from $MELI and up ~10% AH. Burn this into your brain if/when they go down for no reason whatsoever in the next few weeks/months. 

 
James Daulton said:
During the covid meltdown that's how I did it.  I moved like 10% into stocks every 2k drop until I was like 85% stock at around DOW 22k.  Then as the market went back up I reversed and started moving 10% into bonds starting at DOW 27k.  I was 75% stocks by DOW 35k and was actually behind YTD until this last move down.  Now I'm like 1% better than the market and the more it moves down the more I'll pick up from a return perspective (ie. a less negative return).  Another down day tomorrow and I'll start to move back into stocks. 
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i misplayed the covid drop in 2020. I got out before the big drop but I thought it would drop more and never got more than 60% back in. Thus I’ve lagged the market since. I’m trying to avoid making the same mistake. Vix over 30 today and put/call ratio as high as it’s been since the covid drop. Foot to fire, I think we’re only halfway through this but I’m only down 2% from my high so I can take a couple bullets.

 
Pretty sure my 2020 gains have now officially been wiped out. Nice cocktail of uneducated investor going way heavy in growth and speculative plus apparently way overvalued stocks that I thought were good deals at 50% off highs, and horrible market for anything tech or growth.  And who knows, some of this may get cut in half from here with the way things are going.  

 
stinkzmagee said:
Pretty sure my 2020 gains have now officially been wiped out. Nice cocktail of uneducated investor going way heavy in growth and speculative plus apparently way overvalued stocks that I thought were good deals at 50% off highs, and horrible market for anything tech or growth.  And who knows, some of this may get cut in half from here with the way things are going.  
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 Yep I got caught up in all of the growth stocks mentioned in here as well. 

 
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Ridgeback said:
 Yep I got caught up in all of the growth stocks mentioned in here as well. 
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I still can’t believe ARKK is down 60% and that’s with TSLA propping it up a bit. Most of the small companies are down 70-80%. I’m old and was investing during the dot com crash and remember the red hot internet funds being down 80-90%. Surreal to see it happen again. 

 
David Dodds said:
From the cover of a falling stock market, we might be witnessing the start of the great rise of Gamestop's stock today.

I offer these bullet points:

  • Their NFT marketplace is close to launch. Creators owe final artwork on Monday suggesting this launches next week.
  • Ryan Cohen's standstill is over. He can add more shares.
  • There is a gamma train in play for today. If the price hits about $135 - watch out.
  • Federal Holiday on Monday would give shorts less time to cover on Call Options
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DEcided to stick to crypto.

$1000 of HEX at $.15

GME, current price $118

I think ill follow just for fun.

 
fruity pebbles said:
I still can’t believe ARKK is down 60% and that’s with TSLA propping it up a bit. Most of the small companies are down 70-80%. I’m old and was investing during the dot com crash and remember the red hot internet funds being down 80-90%. Surreal to see it happen again. 
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It’s strange but things like Facebook being down almost 50% actually make me feel better about some of the other stuff I’m in that is down 80%.  I literally have no idea if a recovery is likely or not at this point.  Most of what I’m in seemed like solid growth companies but not making profit yet.  Now with share prices in the toilet, their ability to raise cash (if needed) is severely hampered and if they needed to it would crush the price further.  I was selling some covered calls on the way down thinking I could take some risk off the table, but good lord that may have given me back 15-25% of my loss that I’ve seen over the last 6-12 months.  Now I’m faced with selling more calls at basement prices, just selling, or holding on and hoping.  Not the spot I was hoping I would be in.

 
stinkzmagee said:
It’s strange but things like Facebook being down almost 50% actually make me feel better about some of the other stuff I’m in that is down 80%.  I literally have no idea if a recovery is likely or not at this point.  Most of what I’m in seemed like solid growth companies but not making profit yet.  Now with share prices in the toilet, their ability to raise cash (if needed) is severely hampered and if they needed to it would crush the price further.  I was selling some covered calls on the way down thinking I could take some risk off the table, but good lord that may have given me back 15-25% of my loss that I’ve seen over the last 6-12 months.  Now I’m faced with selling more calls at basement prices, just selling, or holding on and hoping.  Not the spot I was hoping I would be in.
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Sorry, that sucks. I lost my ### in the dot com bubble burst. I was only in my 20s at the time so the total value wasn’t a lot but it was all I had. I remember projecting out 50% growth of my portfolio year over year  and at what age I was going to be a millionaire. I’ve been far more risk averse ever since. That kinda thing sticks with you.

 
stinkzmagee said:
Pretty sure my 2020 gains have now officially been wiped out. Nice cocktail of uneducated investor going way heavy in growth and speculative plus apparently way overvalued stocks that I thought were good deals at 50% off highs, and horrible market for anything tech or growth.  And who knows, some of this may get cut in half from here with the way things are going.  
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This is me as well. All of our individual stocks are growth. Luckily it’s not a huge part of the portfolio but it still stings. With an 7 to 8 year window I’m not selling anything. We are cash deployed now and are index people from here on out with auto deposits. The goal is to reassess the individual stocks in 2025. Of course if they spike before then we will trim them off for more VTSAX.

Curious  to see what you bought into if you don’t mind?

 
steelerfan1 said:
This is me as well. All of our individual stocks are growth. Luckily it’s not a huge part of the portfolio but it still stings. With an 7 to 8 year window I’m not selling anything. We are cash deployed now and are index people from here on out with auto deposits. The goal is to reassess the individual stocks in 2025. Of course if they spike before then we will trim them off for more VTSAX.

Curious  to see what you bought into if you don’t mind?
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The ones that i don’t hate that I feel have a good chance of coming back around are SE, TDOC, PINS, FB, SQ, CURLF, NNDM, FLGT, UWMC, APPS.  I don’t mind averaging down or just holding on to these (lots of cash, unlikely to just go away, or a current dividend in the case of UWMC).  The ones that were more speculative that could come back but I don’t feel as great about are FUBO, VISL, WISH, LOTZ, RVP, TLRY (basically the Atlas portfolio if you are familiar - I was dumb).  These are the ones that I’m more worried could dilute further at these low prices and/or take a long time to become profitable.

Unfortunately for me it was too big of a % of my portfolio by 2-3x what it probably should have been.  
 

I agree moving forward I’m looking at a more safe route and things like dividend/dividend growth companies but unfortunately I’ve wasted a lot of capital plus a lot of those companies prices are already up substantially over the last year while I was bleeding.

 
Klimtology said:
All Cash.

Yes or No?
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Not for me.  I'm maybe 5% cash and loading more funds with every paycheck.  I'm considering cutting some losses but only to shift those funds into sectors I feel will bounce back sooner.  

IRA/401K/TSP I remain 100% invested, no gov. bond funds, and increased my contribution amount.  I'm 15 years(ish) from retirement.  

 
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McBokonon said:
Wynn Resorts looks to sell online sports betting biz at deep discount: source

Wynn Resorts is looking to unload its online sports-betting business at a steep discount as the fledgling niche faces painful losses from stiff taxes and costly promotions needed to lure customers, The Post has learned.

The Las Vegas-based casino giant is quietly shopping its Wynn Interactive unit — operator of the WynnBet online gaming app — and has slashed the asking price to $500 million after floating a $3 billion valuation less than a year ago, a source close to the situation told The Post…

….In addition to creating a public company with a $3.2 billion valuation, the deal would have armed WynnBet with $640 million in cash for marketing. After revealing that the app was on track to burn $100 million in both the third and fourth quarters, outgoing CEO Matt Maddox signaled he wasn’t interested in throwing good money after bad.

‘The market is really not sustainable right now,” Maddox said on a Nov. 10 earnings call. “Competitors are spending too much to get customers. And the economics are just not something that we’re going to participate in.’”
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Now Caesars has announced (on its earnings call this morning) that they are “dramatically” reducing their marketing spend related to online sports wagering. They’ll continue to do ramp-ups in new states but won’t be buying any new ads outside of that. The CEO said they’ve achieved their goals. He also said, 

"Digital, where I know the market is struggling, investors are struggling with, 'can this be a profitable business?' We've gone from a kind of ever-increasing bullishness to an unlimited bearishness." This seems to be referring to investor sentiment because he overall seems to still think online betting will be a good part of their business, but they’re cutting ad spend immediately.

 
stinkzmagee said:
Pretty sure my 2020 gains have now officially been wiped out. Nice cocktail of uneducated investor going way heavy in growth and speculative plus apparently way overvalued stocks that I thought were good deals at 50% off highs, and horrible market for anything tech or growth.  And who knows, some of this may get cut in half from here with the way things are going.  
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This year starting to feel like a flat to negative market by year end.  Aggressive fed, Russia and possible China making noise.  Hard to determine what stocks are really bargains, holding cash, and looking to buy on the dips, but only stocks that make a product and are making a profit.  

 
McBokonon said:
Now Caesars has announced (on its earnings call this morning) that they are “dramatically” reducing their marketing spend related to online sports wagering. They’ll continue to do ramp-ups in new states but won’t be buying any new ads outside of that. The CEO said they’ve achieved their goals. He also said, 

"Digital, where I know the market is struggling, investors are struggling with, 'can this be a profitable business?' We've gone from a kind of ever-increasing bullishness to an unlimited bearishness." This seems to be referring to investor sentiment because he overall seems to still think online betting will be a good part of their business, but they’re cutting ad spend immediately.
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Cramer said it's time to buy DKNG based on this. I think he was mostly kidding.

 
beef said:
Not for me.  I'm maybe 5% cash and loading more funds with every paycheck.  I'm considering cutting some losses but only to shift those funds into sectors I feel will bounce back sooner.  

IRA/401K/TSP I remain 100% invested, no gov. bond funds, and increased my contribution amount.  I'm 15 years(ish) from retirement.  
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Thanks beef!

:thumbup:

 
stinkzmagee said:
The ones that i don’t hate that I feel have a good chance of coming back around are SE, TDOC, PINS, FB, SQ, CURLF, NNDM, FLGT, UWMC, APPS.  I don’t mind averaging down or just holding on to these (lots of cash, unlikely to just go away, or a current dividend in the case of UWMC).  The ones that were more speculative that could come back but I don’t feel as great about are FUBO, VISL, WISH, LOTZ, RVP, TLRY (basically the Atlas portfolio if you are familiar - I was dumb).  These are the ones that I’m more worried could dilute further at these low prices and/or take a long time to become profitable.

Unfortunately for me it was too big of a % of my portfolio by 2-3x what it probably should have been.  
 

I agree moving forward I’m looking at a more safe route and things like dividend/dividend growth companies but unfortunately I’ve wasted a lot of capital plus a lot of those companies prices are already up substantially over the last year while I was bleeding.
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I am NOT familiar with the Atlas portfolio, however I do share a few of your same offenders…hopefully in a few years we will be laughing looking back at these posts.

 
McBokonon said:
Now Caesars has announced (on its earnings call this morning) that they are “dramatically” reducing their marketing spend related to online sports wagering. They’ll continue to do ramp-ups in new states but won’t be buying any new ads outside of that. The CEO said they’ve achieved their goals. He also said, 

"Digital, where I know the market is struggling, investors are struggling with, 'can this be a profitable business?' We've gone from a kind of ever-increasing bullishness to an unlimited bearishness." This seems to be referring to investor sentiment because he overall seems to still think online betting will be a good part of their business, but they’re cutting ad spend immediately.
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Kinda amazing that they are doing a reversal after going so hard in advertising.

 
David Dodds said:
I know a lot of this board has FLGT - What are people's expectations on the aftermarket earnings report today?
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I think we are all expecting a blowout. Stock price is way down even as covid testing has ballooned. 

Of course we haven't exactly been hitting it out of the park on our predictions lately. 

 
David Dodds said:
I know a lot of this board has FLGT - What are people's expectations on the aftermarket earnings report today?
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I expect a good report with growth in their core (non-covid) line which is crucial for shedding the “covid stock” label, realization that they have half of their market cap in cold, hard cash from the COVID side which enables them to grow without dilution, and then for the market to ignore all of that and punish them without mercy.

 
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