David Dodds
Administrator
I added some shares. It does seem like this stock has been punished unfairly for being extremely successful due to Covid. Here's hoping for a quick pop after-market.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Stock Thread (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
I added some shares. It does seem like this stock has been punished unfairly for being extremely successful due to Covid. Here's hoping for a quick pop after-market.
Klimtology
Footballguy
This is where I am. I expect it to go well but every stock whose business appears to be firing on all cylinders and pops with a great report has quickly going below the pre-pop. I keep thinking about adding some stuff like DOCN who reports tomorrow but I feel like even if it pops, it’ll lose it all. Not sure I feel like I’ve seen a catalyst for that move up yet.
It’s funny because some stocks I own now, I feel better about them business wise than when they were at the peak, just going to take time and patience to see it through. That’s probably the biggest reason retail folks don’t do well overall. It’s the patience to let the rollercoaster ride play out.
Last edited by a moderator:
cosjobs
Footballguy
hopeful? If the market continues to slide this afternoon, that would suppress the price.
I expect a good pop on earnings, but a dig into projections (w/o the test kit windfall) will send it back down. I hope to sell afterhours on a nice initial pop.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Last 12 Qtrs Positive Only Price Reactions
Percent of time added to extended-hours gains: 42.9%
Average next regular session additional gain: 16.2%
Over the prior three fiscal years (12 quarters), when shares of FLGT rose in the extended-hours session in reaction to its earnings announcement, history shows that 42.9% of the time (3 events) the stock posted additional gains in the following regular session by an average of 16.2%.
Last 12 Qtrs Negative Only Price Reactions
Percent of time added to extended-hours losses: 66.7%
Average next regular session additional loss: 24.5%
Over that same historical period, when shares of FLGT dropped in the extended-hours in reaction to its earnings announcement, history shows that 66.7% of the time (2 events) the stock dropped further, adding to the extended-hours losses by an average of 24.5% by the following regular session close.
Price: 62.13, Change: -0.13, Percent Change: -0.22
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
As much as I believe long term, still feel like we are in a tough period where even if there’s a pop, I think in a week or so it’ll be back at the same price. I’m leaving my powder dry but I do still have some stocks that I probably should convert to stuff I like better.kevzilla said:
At some point, hopefully that will be wrong and we are on the way back up.
beef
Footballguy
I'm thinking they need 1-1.5x market cap in cash to see 2-3% gain. That doesn't add up at all, but seems to make sense with current reporting trends. If they meet expectations or beat on the top, and a close miss on the bottom, 10-15% drop.McBokonon said:
Joking (or not) aside, I increase my stake 25% just in case.
Gopher State
Footballguy
FB closes below 200.00 today. Maybe150.00 will be the buy me now price.
cosjobs
Footballguy
WIRE)--Fulgent Genetics, Inc. (NASDAQ: FLGT) ("Fulgent" or the "Company"), a technology-based genetic testing company focused on transforming patient care in oncology, infectious and rare diseases, and reproductive health, today announced a strategic investment in Spatial Genomics, Inc. ("Spatial"), a leading developer of sequential fluorescence in situ hybridization (seqFISH) technology. Fulgent Genetics is investing up to $40 million to lead Spatial Genomics’ Series A financing, which totals approximately $56 million and also includes investments by 12 West Capital and other investors. Fulgent is also entering into commercial arrangements with Spatial to integrate Spatial Genomics’ seqFISH technology
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
So much cash 
:
Fourth Quarter 2021 Results:
Revenue of $251.7 million
Billable tests delivered approximately 2.5 million
Core Revenue grew 234% year-over-year to $40.1 million
GAAP income of $104.3 million, or $3.34 per share
Non-GAAP income of $108.7 million, or $3.48 per share
Adjusted EBITDA of $159.8 million
Cash from operations of $77.1 million
Cash, cash equivalents, and investments in marketable securities of $935.5 million as of December 31, 2021
Full Year 2021 Results:
Total Revenue grew 135% year-over year to $992.6 million
Core Revenue grew 236% year-over-year to $122.6 million
GAAP income of $507.4 million, or $16.38 per share
Non-GAAP income of $516.5 million, or $16.67 per share
Adjusted EBITDA of $703.6 million
Cash from operations of $538.6 million
:Fourth Quarter 2021 Results:
Revenue of $251.7 million
Billable tests delivered approximately 2.5 million
Core Revenue grew 234% year-over-year to $40.1 million
GAAP income of $104.3 million, or $3.34 per share
Non-GAAP income of $108.7 million, or $3.48 per share
Adjusted EBITDA of $159.8 million
Cash from operations of $77.1 million
Cash, cash equivalents, and investments in marketable securities of $935.5 million as of December 31, 2021
Full Year 2021 Results:
Total Revenue grew 135% year-over year to $992.6 million
Core Revenue grew 236% year-over-year to $122.6 million
GAAP income of $507.4 million, or $16.38 per share
Non-GAAP income of $516.5 million, or $16.67 per share
Adjusted EBITDA of $703.6 million
Cash from operations of $538.6 million
cosjobs
Footballguy
I think the market is pissed off that they spent some couch change on another genetics companySo much cash
Fourth Quarter 2021 Results:
Revenue of $251.7 million
Billable tests delivered approximately 2.5 million
Core Revenue grew 234% year-over-year to $40.1 million
GAAP income of $104.3 million, or $3.34 per share
Non-GAAP income of $108.7 million, or $3.48 per share
Adjusted EBITDA of $159.8 million
Cash from operations of $77.1 million
Cash, cash equivalents, and investments in marketable securities of $935.5 million as of December 31, 2021
Full Year 2021 Results:
Total Revenue grew 135% year-over year to $992.6 million
Core Revenue grew 236% year-over-year to $122.6 million
GAAP income of $507.4 million, or $16.38 per share
Non-GAAP income of $516.5 million, or $16.67 per share
Adjusted EBITDA of $703.6 million
Cash from operations of $538.6 million
Todem
Footballguy
That is the black swan event that is unpredictable. And I honestly can’t say with any certainty we can end positive when you have a geo political event and someone as unstable mentally like Putin.
If we did not have this Russia/Ukraine situation my confidence level would be very high we end the year positive.
So it is something we just need to see unfold and hopefully cooler heads will prevail. War is never good…..life loss and unnecessary bloodshed here.
I don’t think the world will tolerate this and let’s hope it get’s resolved diplomatically.
The correction can certainly go deeper and long term that means opportunity.
Capella
Footballguy
Yea I have a big opp to buy in the next week and while I feel good about them all long-term I’m hesitant to go now because of that situation. Feel like there may be more of a bottom, but can’t resist some of these prices. Probably won’t get greedy.
Wasn’t sales 50% better? I think it was almost $300M with estimates of $200M. Either way it was a crazy beat.
FLGT
Nice beat. But 33% better on EPS and 32% on sales isn't going to cut it in this league. AH bids under 58.
To put their results in perspective before AHs, the market cap was $1.8B. They now have a little over half that in cold hard cash including some of the acquisitions and investments they made the last couple quarters. Their core revenue grew 234-236% in 2021 and Q4. Their core revenue was $123M for 2021 and $40M for Q4. Ignoring cash, a $123M revenue growing like a weed would dictate a much higher P/S multiple than 15 and it’s more like 7 counting the cash.
I wanted to see the core growth and it’s fantastic and there’s likely nothing coming in yet from the acquisitions.
I may increase my position tomorrow just with selling other stuff that doesn’t get killed tomorrow. Leaving my cash where it is but I still have some stocks I should have dumped with others back in November.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Even more over half of its market cap is cash now...
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
I just added more at 53.60. That'll be my last buy on FLGT. To the moon or to the ####ter from here!
beef
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Cramer says the chart tells us the S&P will bottom next Tuesday.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
charts showed we should have had a relief rally today but with Ukraine in the mix you can throw the charts out the window without knowing if a black swan event is on the horizon. Think most chartists will tell you we are overdue for a rally but we are pretty broken technically so they would be looking for more downside afterwards.Cramer says the chart tells us the S&P will bottom next Tuesday.
stinkzmagee
Footballguy
God I hope sosteelerfan1 said:
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
I've heard this topic referenced a couple of times on finance/investing podcasts recently. The net was that looking back at major events, the markets did react immediately as you would expect, but often not nearly as much as you might think, and that they typically bounced back fairly quickly.
After 9-11 the market dropped 4.9% the next day it was open, 11.6% overall drawdown, but took only 31 days to fully recover.
This article has that data and several other "Market Shock Events", and what happened after each. Pearl Harbor was the worst one with a 20% drawdown over 143 days, and it took 307 days to recover. But in most cases the market rebounded in a matter of days or weeks, not months.
All that being said, the markets move way quicker than they used to with all of the algos and institutions driving things, so I'd expect the ride to be wilder than it has been historically. Where's TVIX when you need it?
Last edited by a moderator:
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Energy stocks have been saving me. They were the best performing sector last year and have held up pretty well so far this year. OKE, XOM, PEO, and OXY now are the top 4 stocks in my trading account, HESM is climbing up the list, and I have MRO in another account. Of course that has as much to do with all my Growth stocks getting hammered as it does with them holding on pretty well.
Just highlighting this nugget which is so hard to believe (the recovery), I'm going to do the legwork myself to confirm. And maybe I'm pushing all-in by close of day Friday...
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
ARKK back to roughly it’s pre covid crash level. Whole run up has been wiped out.
Todem
Footballguy
Right now all the index’s are in correction.
Nasdaq down 19% from the all-time high.
Dow touched 10%
S&P almost 12%
All it takes is some explosions and CNN running the video of the chaos on loop 24/7 for a few days and boom we go down another 4-5% from here.
So yeah again long term opportunities IMO.
And today as was mentioned above, markets move lightning fast now. So be ready if another flash selloff happens in the coming days or weeks.
I still have about 15% powder left. And I was early on some big high quality tech…..such is life…but long term I have zero worries we will do just fine.
Capella
Footballguy
Thanks. Good post.I've heard this topic referenced a couple of times on finance/investing podcasts recently. The net was that looking back at major events, the markets did react immediately as you would expect, but often not nearly as much as you might think, and that they typically bounced back fairly quickly.
After 9-11 the market dropped 4.9% the next day it was open, 11.6% overall drawdown, but took only 31 days to fully recover.
This article has that data and several other "Market Shock Events", and what happened after each. Pearl Harbor was the worst one with a 20% drawdown over 143 days, and it took 307 days to recover. But in most cases the market rebounded in a matter of days or weeks, not months.
All that being said, the markets move way quicker than they used to with all of the algos and institutions driving things, so I'd expect the ride to be wilder than it has been historically. Where's TVIX when you need it?
Thanks for this. Makes me feel reassured since I, too, am running around 15% cash and felt a bit naked with so little money left to deploy. I've been buying this past week as well and thought I might be too cash-light but I'm happy to be within shouting distance of your cash allocation.
