Stock Thread (35 Viewers)

[Capella]

Huh????

I meant for the stock price, I thought the 13% was after hours. Just during normal hours!

 

[James Daulton]

I'd expect we'll test new lows as oil prices rise and Russia gets more entangled and frustrated in Ukraine.  The Fed has to keep raising interest rates to try to hold inflation at bay.  Gonna be a weird couple of months I think. 

 

[beef]

SOFI at 13 (this was <9 last week).  Finally a beat and positive outlook that the Market rewards.  

SoFi Sees Q1 Adj. Net Revenue $280M-$285M vs $306.32M Est., Sees FY22 Adj. Net Revenue $1.57B vs $1.45B Est.

SoFi Technologies Q4 EPS $(0.15) Beats $(0.17) Estimate, Adj. Sales $279.88M Beat $279.29M Estimate

 

[BassNBrew]

SOFI at 13 (this was <9 last week).  Finally a beat and positive outlook that the Market rewards.  

SoFi Sees Q1 Adj. Net Revenue $280M-$285M vs $306.32M Est.,

Sees FY22 Adj. Net Revenue $1.57B vs $1.45B Est.

Something doesn't add up here.  Q1 guidance down 8% but the full year will be up by 8%?

 

[stbugs]

SoFi Sees Q1 Adj. Net Revenue $280M-$285M vs $306.32M Est.,

Sees FY22 Adj. Net Revenue $1.57B vs $1.45B Est.

Something doesn't add up here.  Q1 guidance down 8% but the full year will be up by 8%?

That is weird. Also, they barely beat the forecasts for Q4. I’d assume that it’s been beat down so much that just beating revenue by 0.3% was good.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Bought 1,  4/1/22, $75, DWAC put for $15.

Added another at $6.25.    This one has been crazy.  I've never seen such wide spreads between the bid,ask and where it actually closes. 

ETA

And the stock price hasn't gone up much since my original purchase.  Sure I lost a couple of weeks but still. 

 

[Klimtology]

I am still all cash.

Am I still dumb?

 

[pecorino]

I am still all cash.

Am I still dumb?

Cash is losing value at about 7% per year so it would seem wise to have some hedges or alternate forms of currency like Gold, silver, Crypto, NFTs, real estate, metaverse real estate, unused NBA ticket stubs, guns and/or butter. You may want to look for entry points into some of those. Or I heard that rubles are on sale right now.

 

[Chadstroma]

UWM 2021 profits down more than 50% despite loan origination growth

Jordyn Grzelewski

The Detroit News

United Wholesale Mortgage Holdings Corp. — the publicly traded parent of Pontiac-based wholesale lender UWM — on Tuesday reported a profit of $1.6 billion for 2021, down more than 53% from 2020's roughly $3.4 billion.

Meanwhile, for the fourth quarter, the company reported net income of $239.8 million, down more than 80% from the nearly $1.4 billion it reported in the same period of 2020.

Still, executives noted it was the company's 15th consecutive profitable year and its second most profitable ever — underscoring the boom the mortgage industry saw in 2020 as low interest rates fueled refinancing activity.

“Our continued focus on speed, service and best-in-class technology is why we continue to deliver these results," UWMC chairman and CEO Mat Ishbia said on a call with analysts. "However, our scale is now also a huge factor in our success.”

For the full year, UWM reported loan origination volume — a key market indicator — of $226.5 billion, up 24% from 2020 and a new record for the company, executives said. Purchase originations were up more than 100% to $87.3 billion. Refinances totaled $139.3 billion, down slightly from $139.6 billion in 2020.

UWM's gain-on-sale margin was 1.14% in 2021, down from 2.49% in 2020.

In the fourth quarter, originations totaled $55.2 billion, up slightly from $54.7 billion in the same period of 2020. That included $24.5 billion in purchase volume, a 103% increase from Q4 2020. 

Executives pointed to growth in purchase volume, as well as its model of selling loans exclusively through mortgage brokers, as indicators that UWM is well-positioned to leverage the ongoing shift away from refinancing activity to purchase loans.

“Our operations are built for the purchase market, to enable broker clients to provide a differentiated solution to American consumers," said chief financial officer Tim Forrester. "The competitive environment pushed margins lower as compared to record margins we saw in the fourth quarter of 2020 and dropped a bit from the prior quarter. Even with the increased competition, our financial performance remains strong and our return on equity for the quarter was impressive.”

The company said it again was the largest wholesale mortgage lender in the U.S. by closed loan volume, with about one-third market share of the wholesale channel.

"As the industry navigates rising rates and low housing inventory, UWM is well-positioned to succeed by doing what we do best — proving a mortgage broker is the fastest, easiest and most affordable option for borrowers," Ishbia said in a statement. "With continued channel growth and elite industry-leading service, we are poised to reach our goal of becoming the nation's No. 1 overall mortgage lender."

The company said it expects first-quarter production to be in the range of $33 billion to $42 billion.

UWM had total equity of $3.2 billion at the end of 2021, up from $2.4 billion at the end of 2020. For the year, the company repurchased nearly 11.5 million Class A common stock shares for $81.6 million, at an average price per share of $7.10.

Tuesday was the second time the mortgage lender reported full-year results as a publicly traded company, after listing on the New York Stock Exchange in January 2020 following a $16.1 billion merger with a blank-check company.

UWM Holding Corp.'s stock closed at $4.34 per share Monday. It was trading down about 3% Tuesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, crosstown rival Rocket Cos. last week reported net income of more than $6 billion in 2021, down more than 35% from 2020. The country's largest mortgage originator closed a record $351 billion in loans last year, a nearly 10% rise from 2020.

Another Michigan-based mortgage lender, Ann Arbor's Home Point Capital Inc., posted $1.19 million in profit in 2021, down 73% year-over-year, with $96.203 billion in volume closed, up 55%.

Both UWM and Rocket saw their stocks plunge ahead of their earnings reports amid a broader slowdown for U.S. home mortgage lenders due to rising mortgage rates and a decline in refinance applications.

For the week ending Feb. 18, mortgage applications fell 13.1% from one week earlier, according to survey data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association last week. 

Mortgage applications dropped to their lowest level since December 2019 and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 4.06%, almost a full percentage point higher than a year ago, the organization reported.

UWM will pay a cash dividend of 10 cents per share on the outstanding shares of Class A common stock to stockholders of record as of close of business March 14. The dividend is payable on April 11.

jgrzelewski@detroitnews.com

Twitter: @JGrzelewski

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2022/03/01/united-wholesale-mortgages-2021-profits-down-more-than-50-percent/9324770002/

I was asked for my thoughts on the UWMC earnings. I highlighted the parts of this article that I think are key. For those who have read what I have said earlier on UWM this is what I was talking about. As interest rates rise and the refinance "easy money" is gone, UWM is well positioned to dominate. During the refi boom, they helped control their pipeline with pricing. Being competitive but not usually not the 'best option' in as much as rates are concerned. As the market shifts to be clearly dominated by purchase loans, most brokers will choose UWM over most other lenders as they are the fastest, easiest and smoothest wholesale lender when it comes to 'clean' files (basically vanilla consumers with decent or better credit). UWM has the capacity and will lower their rates. For these files, sometimes the only reason you don't take it to UWM is because another good lender is just offering a much better rate. If UWM has the best rate out of the good lenders (there is always some crap lender offering bottom price) then there is no debate- the loan is going to UWM. 

Industry wise, brokers will continue to grow and be an even bigger part of the mortgage market. Some retail lenders are already doing layoffs. As rates increase there is rate compression and it is harder for retail to be competitive with brokers. UWM is the clear leader in wholesale and will continue to be and in fact, actually increase that lead. 

The 80% decrease likely (best guess) is not just in lower margins on the loans but I would think it is an indication of further investment into tech. As I have said before, even though I am a mortgage broker doing loans and working with UWM- I don't see it as a mortgage company. I see it is as a tech company. I think that is where Wall St. is pricing it and think at some point when the numbers show differently then the stock will rise accordingly. I continue to be long and will hold taking my dividend income in the meantime. 

 

[Capella]

I am still all cash.

Am I still dumb?

Not dumb. Everybody has their own level of risk. I went shopping off the todem list today, stoked for these prices. I’m super long-term though, wouldn’t want to day trade right now. 

 

[David Dodds]

I am still all cash.

Am I still dumb?

I suspect the market goes way lower from here. Today actually feels like a dead cat bounce with the Dow up 562 points against the backdrop of higher interests, no QE, a worsening war in Ukraine and oil prices over $100/barrel.

If I wasn't all-in on GME, I would be in cash waiting for the hammer to level this market.

 

[Klimtology]

Thanks guys!

 

[Gilroy34]

I am still all cash.

Am I still dumb?

I would be extremely uncomfortable if I was sitting all in cash right now.  S&P 500 down 8% YTD, NASDAQ 12%.  Earlier in this thread I mentioned 4100 on the S&P 500 as a level I would be buying as I thought that would be my downside number.  Well, we hit 4114 last Thursday and it rallied hard and now sits at 4376.  It looks like 2021 earnings will be around $210 so that gives you a trailing PE of 21.  Current projections assume 2022 earnings to be around $235 which gives us a forward PE of 18.6.  That is very reasonable and attractive considering the 10 year yield is 1.84%.  You can almost get that in dividend yield alone holding the S&P.

 

[BassNBrew]

I am still all cash.

Am I still dumb?

That takes a big pair of stones.  

Personally I'm thinking pigs get fat, hogs get slaughter.  Just a reminder how fast we snapped back from covid...https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/07/business/omicron-stock-market-covid.html

I'd rather be earlier and miss the bottom by a good bit than be sitting on cash when the train is rolling.

 

[David Dodds]

That takes a big pair of stones.  

Personally I'm thinking pigs get fat, hogs get slaughter.  Just a reminder how fast we snapped back from covid...https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/07/business/omicron-stock-market-covid.html

I'd rather be earlier and miss the bottom by a good bit than be sitting on cash when the train is rolling.

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

was watching Powell's testimony in the senate earlier, I thought the screen flashed "Powell: Will propose, support 30 basis point rate hike in March," now it's been edited to 25 basis points. Looks like first rate hike for the year is coming. he also said this is the highest inflation he's seen since he was in college 30 years ago.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

I think the compression of older, smaller numbers relative to percentages makes the chart look a little misleading.  It's saying we're way out of whack because we're 48% higher than the long term trend line for the last year or so.  But if I'm reading that correctly it looks like we were around that same amount higher than the long term trend line for a full 20 years once before in the past.

 

[BassNBrew]

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

Interesting.

Does this impact those numbers?

Since peaking at around 8,000 sometime in the mid-to-late 1990s, depending on your data source, the number of companies publicly listed on U.S. exchanges has steadily declined. In 2016, according to Credit Suisse, that number got down to around 3,600. Today, closer to 6,000 companies trade on the NYSE and Nasdaq. 

Lots of SPAC and IPO mania last year.  Wouldn't the S&P500 be a better measure?

 

[Gopher State]

Taking some more profits today.  I suspect we will see new lows in the near future, so building cash to buy low.

 

[identikit]

BNKU

I you

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Added another at $6.25.    This one has been crazy.  I've never seen such wide spreads between the bid,ask and where it actually closes. 

ETA

And the stock price hasn't gone up much since my original purchase.  Sure I lost a couple of weeks but still. 

For example right now the bid is $4.95 and the ask is $8.00

 

[The Big Donkey]

Snowflake (SNOW) is melting.

 

[beef]

Buffet Indicator was alarming prior to Covid.  There were people making a lot of references to it back in 2018 and 2019.  I kind of think markets and companies (at least US based ones) have changed so much, and are far more globalized now, that the Buffet indicator can't quite measure it as accurate as it could decades ago.  One of many tools to look at, but not a primary one for me.  In 2017 the Buffett Indicator hit a new all time high. If you followed it then and got out, you'd still be out.  That's a lot of missed gains.    

 

[BassNBrew]

Buffet Indicator was alarming prior to Covid.  There were people making a lot of references to it back in 2018 and 2019.  I kind of think markets and companies (at least US based ones) have changed so much, and are far more globalized now, that the Buffet indicator can't quite measure it as accurate as it could decades ago.  One of many tools to look at, but not a primary one for me.  In 2017 the Buffett Indicator hit a new all time high. If you followed it then and got out, you'd still be out.  That's a lot of missed gains.    

Not sure if the scale in Dodd's link was accurate, but GDP wasn't increasing linearly visually.  If the "Buffet indicator" is forward looking, then the  ranges need to be increasing.  I'd equate it to using fantasy football ranges from 20 years ago to evaluate players when we know scoring and passing up today.

 

[beef]

Not dumb. Everybody has their own level of risk. I went shopping off the todem list today, stoked for these prices. 

I'm with you and stoked at some of the prices we're seeing.  I know I can be a bit more aggressive at times than others, but I'm comfortable with that.  I'll take profits when it's screaming to take them and wait for buying opportunities to get those funds back in.  But I won't pull my money out because of bearish fears.  I'll just buy a #### ton more if/when the markets do drop, and keep buying until they rebound.  

 

[Judge Smails]

I'm in too much cash right now for non-IRA stuff.  Think I'm going Todem shopping as well.

 

[Capella]

I'm with you and stoked at some of the prices we're seeing.  I know I can be a bit more aggressive at times than others, but I'm comfortable with that.  I'll take profits when it's screaming to take them and wait for buying opportunities to get those funds back in.  But I won't pull my money out because of bearish fears.  I'll just buy a #### ton more if/when the markets do drop, and keep buying until they rebound.  

Yea I’m pretty thrilled. Long-term seems like a good position to be buying into. 

 

[stbugs]

Buffet Indicator was alarming prior to Covid.  There were people making a lot of references to it back in 2018 and 2019.  I kind of think markets and companies (at least US based ones) have changed so much, and are far more globalized now, that the Buffet indicator can't quite measure it as accurate as it could decades ago.  One of many tools to look at, but not a primary one for me.  In 2017 the Buffett Indicator hit a new all time high. If you followed it then and got out, you'd still be out.  That's a lot of missed gains.    

Yeah, using just US GDP seems like maybe in 1950 and 1970 it worked but now? Non-Amazon FAANG stocks get more than half of their revenue internationally. Amazon gets about a quarter of its revenue, over $125B internationally. Those are most of the biggest companies in the US.

 

[Chadstroma]

I am thinking of buying Dassault, BAE or Airbus to capitalize on the coming large increases in European defense expenditures (Germany already has announced a large increase). Any thoughts on this or looking at another European defense contractor. I have in the past thought about adding Lockheed or Boeing and some others but never liked the e try points when I was thinking about. I prefer a European contractor as I think all NATO countries and even non-NATO will be greatly increasing their spending and they do like yo buy from European companies. The F-35 will likely get more orders but the Eurofighter and Rafale likely will get more of the unexpected buys. Poland is buying a bunch of M1A1 Abrams but Germany will be developing their own etc. 

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Bought 2, 3/18, SDOW (3X Bear) contracts at $2.05.   

 

[beef]

Bought 2, 3/18, SDOW (3X Bear) contracts at $2.05.   

31 calls?  

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

31 calls?  

Sorry, yes. 

 

[Capella]

Couldn’t resist that SE price any longer. 

 

[SFBayDuck]

I am thinking of buying Dassault, BAE or Airbus to capitalize on the coming large increases in European defense expenditures (Germany already has announced a large increase). Any thoughts on this or looking at another European defense contractor. I have in the past thought about adding Lockheed or Boeing and some others but never liked the e try points when I was thinking about. I prefer a European contractor as I think all NATO countries and even non-NATO will be greatly increasing their spending and they do like yo buy from European companies. The F-35 will likely get more orders but the Eurofighter and Rafale likely will get more of the unexpected buys. Poland is buying a bunch of M1A1 Abrams but Germany will be developing their own etc. 

I was just looking at two defense ETFs, XAR and ITA.  I ended up starting a position in XAR as ITA was too heavy on just Raytheon (22%) and Boeing (18%) for my taste.  Both are US-only stocks though.  I didn't dig too deep, but didn't see any European-focused equivalents on Fidelity.

 

[BassNBrew]

ACI up 10% today.  Culled half the position I opened 2 weeks ago.  This stock continues to be an instant buy under $30.

 

[General Malaise]

So is FLGT done for now that Covid is over?  Just seems like sellers are more active and for a stock that has healthy financials, I don't quite get it.  

 

[Gopher State]

RBLX down 6 percent today, over 50 percent for the year.  I nibble if it drops another 10 percent.

 

[Desert_Power]

Anyone actually taking positions that are long Russian names at some point?  I guess ERUS would be the way to do that, down 83% YTD.

 

[David Dodds]

Anyone actually taking positions that are long Russian names at some point?  I guess ERUS would be the way to do that, down 83% YTD.

The 5 year chart on this looks pretty sexy. Trying to catch a falling knife is always tricky, but this seems like it's close to a bottom. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The better question is why the heck did we not all buy puts on ERUS leading up to this?  It seems so obvious now.

 

[beef]

Anyone actually taking positions that are long Russian names at some point?  I guess ERUS would be the way to do that, down 83% YTD.

I'd maybe risk a few grand in a Russian company tracking ETF, but think I'll wait for their economy to collapse first and see which companies survive it.  

 

[GreenNGold]

I'd maybe risk a few grand in a Russian company tracking ETF, but think I'll wait for their economy to collapse first and see which companies survive it.  

Agreed, sanctions (and more sanctions are most likely on the way) are going to be in place for months at minimum, probably years, with a chance at decades.  Russia is also going to be closing their economy to outside/western interests in an attempt to go at it on their own again.  I said in the Ukraine thread I think we are starting a new cold war, it could be a long time before anyone can realistically invest in the Russian economy again.  

I know defense stocks already popped a bit but I could see them continuing to do well as there is now a renewed focus on defense spending by multiple countries. 

 

[stbugs]

So is FLGT done for now that Covid is over?  Just seems like sellers are more active and for a stock that has healthy financials, I don't quite get it.  

I’ve got a long horizon but yeah it hasn’t done enough to shed the label and people in this market aren’t looking at real numbers.

I’ll add that I think the company needs to highlight all the non-COVID testing they do and those results. They are in the reports but probably need to discuss it more especially since that cash hoard has helped them make some moves. Would help to see the value of the company overall. Almost 1B in cash, 1.7B market cap and Q4 core (non-COVID) revenue predicted to be $120M in 2022. Seems like they are predicting a decent amount of COVID testing Q1 (just under half of their prediction for all of 2022) so should still be a nice cash flow in Q1 again really helping the future.

 

[General Malaise]

I’ve got a long horizon but yeah it hasn’t done enough to shed the label and people in this market aren’t looking at real numbers.

Can you summarize what is their long horizon once Covid testing falls by the wayside?  I'm ashamed to admit I own this without really understanding their business plans long term.

 

[KGB]

Reddit ipo should be a fun ride. 

https://www.protocol.com/bulletins/reddit-march-ipo

 

[David Dodds]

wow - I pulled the trigger on ERUS, got some lunch and now I am up 10+%.  Weird times.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Reddit ipo should be a fun ride. 

https://www.protocol.com/bulletins/reddit-march-ipo

Man a year ago this thing would have blown up.  Not sure about the current market.

As a reddit user, not too stoked about the IPO at all.  I assume it will mean much more aggressive monetization before long.

 

[KGB]

Man a year ago this thing would have blown up.  Not sure about the current market.

As a reddit user, not too stoked about the IPO at all.  I assume it will mean much more aggressive monetization before long.

Agree.  It will probably ruin it.

Doesnt mean we can't make a buck first lol

 

[stbugs]

Can you summarize what is their long horizon once Covid testing falls by the wayside?  I'm ashamed to admit I own this without really understanding their business plans long term.

Lol. I was on a call and was editing. Core, non COVID genetics testing (they’ve also made acquisitions on cancer testing) is predicted at $120M which seems like an easily beatable number. Here’s the transcript of their earnings call:

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/02/23/fulgent-genetics-inc-flgt-q4-2021-earnings-call-tr/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article 

One thing that they seem excited about is spatial genomics which they see as their next gen (past their current next gen) and this is an article about their investment:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fulgent-genetics-announces-strategic-investment-210500553.html 

There are two things that really excite me about this company. First, they were able to pivot and make an absolute killing on COVID testing the past couple years. That tells me that they’ll take full advantage of opportunities and be able to deliver. Second, they now have a cash hoard to make investments both to increase their core revenue and expand their markets but also be able to invest in new technology to make sure they are always ahead of the game.

 

[General Malaise]

Lol. I was on a call and was editing. Core, non COVID genetics testing (they’ve also made acquisitions on cancer testing) is predicted at $120M which seems like an easily beatable number. Here’s the transcript of their earnings call:

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/02/23/fulgent-genetics-inc-flgt-q4-2021-earnings-call-tr/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article 

One thing that they seem excited about is spatial genomics which they see as their next gen (past their current next gen) and this is an article about their investment:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fulgent-genetics-announces-strategic-investment-210500553.html 

There are two things that really excite me about this company. First, they were able to pivot and make an absolute killing on COVID testing the past couple years. That tells me that they’ll take full advantage of opportunities and be able to deliver. Second, they now have a cash hoard to make investments both to increase their core revenue and expand their markets but also be able to invest in new technology to make sure they are always ahead of the game.

Thank you, GB.