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Stock Thread (34 Viewers)

General Malaise said:
Have been out of gold and silver for well over a year, but looking hard at gold now.  With so much uncertainty, I could see some money flocking to gold. Still about > $150 off its highs, chart showing some support levels below here, might not be an awful gamble to put some on.  
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Say, anybody want to venture a guess as to who did NOT buy gold after posting this?  Hint:  He has two thumbs and made a lot of babies!  

FML

 
General Malaise said:
Say, anybody want to venture a guess as to who did NOT buy gold after posting this?  Hint:  He has two thumbs and made a lot of babies!  

FML
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:hifive:  Me too!  I replied to that post back in January that I haven't played NUGT/JNUG in a while and was thinking of starting a position in one.  But didn't...  :kicksrock:   

 
cosjobs said:
Big fan of +544% on one day... so far 
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Since we were talking hindsight the other day, betting against that one did seem like a slam dunk winner now.  Nice job, man.  I guess I was afraid to bet against stupid since there still seems to be so much of it going around.  

 
beef said:
Since we were talking hindsight the other day, betting against that one did seem like a slam dunk winner now.  Nice job, man.  I guess I was afraid to bet against stupid since there still seems to be so much of it going around.  
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Same. I have a friend who has been making really bullish bets on this one though.

 
Bought a bunch of Hgen again at 1.80 to drop my average under 9. It’s had a really good 5-6 days. Thinking of taking it off the table to lock in some gains but I’m probably just gonna be greedy and stupid and roll those bones on results again. 

 
Capella said:
Bought a bunch of Hgen again at 1.80 to drop my average under 9. It’s had a really good 5-6 days. Thinking of taking it off the table to lock in some gains but I’m probably just gonna be greedy and stupid and roll those bones on results again. 
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Not sure why it’s up so much looking at the numbers. They used $184M net cash (including all the money raised) in 2021 and have $70M left. Dilution on the way big time with not a real great outlook. CYDY is only -33% away from Chet’s first bat signal. Freaking captivated this thread for a while only to basically be right back where it started 2.5 years later.

 
stbugs said:
Not sure why it’s up so much looking at the numbers. They used $184M net cash (including all the money raised) in 2021 and have $70M left. Dilution on the way big time with not a real great outlook. CYDY is only -33% away from Chet’s first bat signal. Freaking captivated this thread for a while only to basically be right back where it started 2.5 years later.
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Obviously bc people are expecting good results on the activ trial. If the trial is a bust it’s going to zero. If results are positive the hope is to sell the drug to Europe and maybe the US. Their finances at the moment don’t really mean anything. 

 
Let's play the capitulation game.

If/when it hits, there will be lots of stocks down 50% raNGE

There are many stocks we could buy really really cheap and use as a hedge for bear market or get lucky and collect a longshot bet.

I'm talking about Puts we could get under 10-20 and buy 1000 (10 contracts) and have a $100-200 bet (or $10-20 if you want to go low budget).. Its probably as hard as hitting a superfecta, but I like superfectas. Esp. in my Roth where winners are tax-free. I think that in this crazy, angry market its a logical wager, as long as its a miniscule part of your account.

I'm going to look at option charts and place what I consider values here. If interested, please do the same.

Example: PM (Phillip Morris Intl) Put at $85 expiring 3/11 was 4-23 cents today (bid/ask), It should be cheaper tomorrow, so 1000 shares should be well under $200,

It was down to 85 in December and before April '21 it lived in 60-80 range for most of the two years preceding that.

Also factor in the fact that they use American tobacco, so there's all kinds of logistical/fuel #### that could #### it up. And I don't think PM has halted trade with Russia yet, either.

If it would swoop down to 62, 10 contracts would pay 23,000. Down to 80 would get you 5000. 

Let's find more and go longshot shopping 

 
cosjobs said:
Let's play the capitulation game.

If/when it hits, there will be lots of stocks down 50% raNGE

There are many stocks we could buy really really cheap and use as a hedge for bear market or get lucky and collect a longshot bet.

I'm talking about Puts we could get under 10-20 and buy 1000 (10 contracts) and have a $100-200 bet (or $10-20 if you want to go low budget).. Its probably as hard as hitting a superfecta, but I like superfectas. Esp. in my Roth where winners are tax-free. I think that in this crazy, angry market its a logical wager, as long as its a miniscule part of your account.

I'm going to look at option charts and place what I consider values here. If interested, please do the same.

Example: PM (Phillip Morris Intl) Put at $85 expiring 3/11 was 4-23 cents today (bid/ask), It should be cheaper tomorrow, so 1000 shares should be well under $200,

It was down to 85 in December and before April '21 it lived in 60-80 range for most of the two years preceding that.

Also factor in the fact that they use American tobacco, so there's all kinds of logistical/fuel #### that could #### it up. And I don't think PM has halted trade with Russia yet, either.

If it would swoop down to 62, 10 contracts would pay 23,000. Down to 80 would get you 5000. 

Let's find more and go longshot shopping 
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I think your superfecta is a good analogy for something out of the money like that on a 3 day leash.  It's not easy even when you have plenty of runway.

 
Dwayne Hoover said:
BassNBrew said:
Wtf is up with Kala?  Up 83%
 

most up my converted spacs are up big too. 
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That's a rainy day surprise for sure.  Looks like it just got added to a couple of big insurance plans.  See if it can hold these gains though, would be great to start building again.
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I am also still holding this one :lol:

 
cosjobs said:
Let's play the capitulation game.

PM (Phillip Morris Intl) Put at $85 expiring 3/11 was 4-23 cents today (bid/ask), It should be cheaper tomorrow, so 1000 shares should be well under $200,

It was down to 85 in December and before April '21 it lived in 60-80 range for most of the two years preceding that.
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Writing up PM, I like it. Esp. since they haven't stopped sales to Russia yet (that I can see). The day that hits... I think I will be targeting a entry point under a dime.

I'll write up COSTco later this evening.

 
I was looking more into SHOP since I was considering buying some here and did more DD on it.  Didn’t make sense to me that their earnings were larger than revenue certain quarters this year.  Turns out in q1-q3 of 2021 about 2.2 billion of their earnings were price increases of AFRM and GLBE which they have large stakes in.  In Q4 those 2 stocks took a hit hence the negative earnings this quarter.  Based on their charts I imagine SHOPs Q1 2022 will look awful with a -2 billion earnings give or take.  When those 3rd party companies are stripped out I think (really ballpark) 2021 for shop was around 4.5 billion revenue and 1 billion profit.  That would put their p/e closer to 70 still even at $500.  And they are guiding some slowdown in growth in 2022.  

Of course if AFRM or GLBE turns around that will help once again but they look ugly too.
 

I like the business but based off of what I learned and how godawful ugly their chart is right now I think I’ll be holding off for a bit to see what happens and maybe start a position around $350.

I’d love to hear other opinions or thoughts on this.

 
stinkzmagee said:
I was looking more into SHOP since I was considering buying some here and did more DD on it.  Didn’t make sense to me that their earnings were larger than revenue certain quarters this year.  Turns out in q1-q3 of 2021 about 2.2 billion of their earnings were price increases of AFRM and GLBE which they have large stakes in.  In Q4 those 2 stocks took a hit hence the negative earnings this quarter.  Based on their charts I imagine SHOPs Q1 2022 will look awful with a -2 billion earnings give or take.  When those 3rd party companies are stripped out I think (really ballpark) 2021 for shop was around 4.5 billion revenue and 1 billion profit.  That would put their p/e closer to 70 still even at $500.  And they are guiding some slowdown in growth in 2022.  

Of course if AFRM or GLBE turns around that will help once again but they look ugly too.
 

I like the business but based off of what I learned and how godawful ugly their chart is right now I think I’ll be holding off for a bit to see what happens and maybe start a position around $350.

I’d love to hear other opinions or thoughts on this.
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Amazon did the same thing with Rivian.

Can you explain why the stock price of companies they have ownership in impact their earnings if they chose to hold rather than sell?

 
stinkzmagee said:
I was looking more into SHOP since I was considering buying some here and did more DD on it.  Didn’t make sense to me that their earnings were larger than revenue certain quarters this year.  Turns out in q1-q3 of 2021 about 2.2 billion of their earnings were price increases of AFRM and GLBE which they have large stakes in.  In Q4 those 2 stocks took a hit hence the negative earnings this quarter.  Based on their charts I imagine SHOPs Q1 2022 will look awful with a -2 billion earnings give or take.  When those 3rd party companies are stripped out I think (really ballpark) 2021 for shop was around 4.5 billion revenue and 1 billion profit.  That would put their p/e closer to 70 still even at $500.  And they are guiding some slowdown in growth in 2022.  

Of course if AFRM or GLBE turns around that will help once again but they look ugly too.
 

I like the business but based off of what I learned and how godawful ugly their chart is right now I think I’ll be holding off for a bit to see what happens and maybe start a position around $350.

I’d love to hear other opinions or thoughts on this.
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I know @Todem likes it a lot. Would be curious to hear his take. 

 
BassNBrew said:
Amazon did the same thing with Rivian.

Can you explain why the stock price of companies they have ownership in impact their earnings if they chose to hold rather than sell?
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 In their earnings report they just have it as “other income”.  Here is a shippet from Q3, with adjusted taking out that other income:

 Net income for the third quarter of 2021 was $1,148.4 million, or $9.00 per diluted share, compared with net income of $191.1 million, or $1.54 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2020. Q3 2021 net income includes a $1,340.8 million unrealized gain on our equity investments.
• Adjusted net income4 for the third quarter of 2021 was $102.8 million, or $0.81 per diluted share, compared with adjusted net income of $140.8 million, or $1.13 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2020.

 After looking further their 2021 income when you take out this “other” was $268 million (instead of the 2.9 billion you see).  Based on that their PE would actually be like 240ish even at $500.
 

Good news is they are profitable but with this market that still a wicked high PE.  Could reverse tomorrow who knows but after looking further I’m not sure I’m buying at $350 like I said an hour ago.

 Edited to add I own plenty of crap that has gotten destroyed that has NO PE because they don’t turn a profit yet…so please take my opinion with a grain of salt, but I’d love to hear what Todem or anyone else thinks.

 
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stinkzmagee said:
 In their earnings report they just have it as “other income”.  Here is a shippet from Q3, with adjusted taking out that other income:

 Net income for the third quarter of 2021 was $1,148.4 million, or $9.00 per diluted share, compared with net income of $191.1 million, or $1.54 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2020. Q3 2021 net income includes a $1,340.8 million unrealized gain on our equity investments.
• Adjusted net income4 for the third quarter of 2021 was $102.8 million, or $0.81 per diluted share, compared with adjusted net income of $140.8 million, or $1.13 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2020.

 After looking further their 2021 income when you take out this “other” was $268 million (instead of the 2.9 billion you see).  Based on that their PE would actually be like 240ish even at $500.
 

Good news is they are profitable but with this market that still a wicked high PE.  Could reverse tomorrow who knows but after looking further I’m not sure I’m buying at $350 like I said an hour ago.

 Edited to add I own plenty of crap that has gotten destroyed that has NO PE because they don’t turn a profit yet…so please take my opinion with a grain of salt, but I’d love to hear what Todem or anyone else thinks.
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Thank you for your post.  I'll have to digest your perspective.

unrealized gain on our equity investments
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I don't get this.  CRM and AMZN don't do this.  Makes no sense.  Are companies inflating their revenue based upon their real estate assets being more valuable?  Is the IRS going to let them deduct an unrealized loss?

 
BassNBrew said:
Thank you for your post.  I'll have to digest your perspective.

I don't get this.  CRM and AMZN don't do this.  Makes no sense.  Are companies inflating their revenue based upon their real estate assets being more valuable?  Is the IRS going to let them deduct an unrealized loss?
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You’re welcome.

Beats me, I’m certainly not an accountant but it seems strange.  There are a few articles out there that briefly discuss it.

 
stinkzmagee said:
You’re welcome.

Beats me, I’m certainly not an accountant but it seems strange.  There are a few articles out there that briefly discuss it.
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a) I could try to find them, read them, and then decipher them

b) @Todem could probably answer off the top of his head.

I think I'll wait for the later.

 
Did anyone else notice all of those I never heard of before oil stock making huge moves last week? I wonder if any of them are having similar dips today? I'd like to find some relative oil value.

e.g. HUSA - popped to 14-16 earlier in the week. now at 6.70, but historically a $2 stock

 
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stinkzmagee said:
You’re welcome.

Beats me, I’m certainly not an accountant but it seems strange.  There are a few articles out there that briefly discuss it.
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Other income is just income derived from activities unrelated to the main focus of a business.  So it really can vary quite a bit, and I really don't know how much of that has to be disclosed.  You might have to dig into the subaccounts or general ledgers to see exactly what it is and those reports aren't getting posted.  

 
cosjobs said:
Did anyone else notice all of those I never heard of before oil stock making huge moves last week? I wonder if any of them are having similar dips today? I'd like to find some relative oil value.

e.g. HUSA - popped to 14-16 earlier in the week. now at 6.70, but historically a $2 stock
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INDO a $5 stock that spiked to 61, now at 31.

 
cosjobs said:
INDO a $5 stock that spiked to 61, now at 31.
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All this Russia BS has just made the supply and demand chain of oil into a perfect storm of volatility.  Not sure I got the stones to play it.  Sure is interesting though.    

 
beef said:
All this Russia BS has just made the supply and demand chain of oil into a perfect storm of volatility.  Not sure I got the stones to play it.  Sure is interesting though.    
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If INDO got down to 12-15, I'd be a buyer, but its up 8% today while oil overall is down

HUSA is down another 15%, but its quite stinky

:confused:

 
cosjobs said:
Complete longshot, but I'm betting on the financial management acumen of Devin Nunes and the entrepreneurial track record of DJT. If things get harrier overall this week, I could see this stock dropping like a rock.

DWAC put 80, expires 3/11 95 cents a share

if the underlying stock goes back to $96/share, I'll buy more with higher strikes and a better theta
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Sold at 5.35 this afternoon for 880 profit

 
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