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Stock Thread (14 Viewers)

Stocks going up and down 7% every day is just totally insane. This is just extremely stupid. The stock market is crypto now. 

 
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BassNBrew said:
From that article...

"So far, we’ve yet to see inventory post a meaningful upward bounce. Until that happens, industry insiders say, we won’t see any significant cooling in the housing market."

What's going to drive inventory?

1. We are just getting back to typically recession level of housing starts.  https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/housing-starts

2. Work from home has reduced forced relocation activity.

3. Old people want to die neglecting their homes, not die neglected in an old folks home.

4. Even with Zillow dropping of the map, Wall Street is still aggressively buying.

I expect a soft landing and not a crash unless those parameters change.
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It may not be a crash like last time however I think things will get ugly really fast.  The situation is very similar except this time we have inflation to deal with too. 

 
Capella said:
Stocks going up and down 7% every day is just totally insane. This is just extremely stupid. The stock market is crypto now. 
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Agreed it is annoying. Every up day is big and then a bigger down day. I don’t see how a Fed being hawkish changes things aren’t we betting on 7 or 8 bumps in interest rates this year? Isn’t that a pretty hawkish sentiment?

I still have plenty of cash (dollar wise) but I’ve got no plans for it. Too volatile. If we get back to some of those 3/14 lows, I may bite a little bit but it’s still crazy and I’m not a day trader, too damn busy. I guess we just keep maxing out the 401ks and see where that gets us closer to the end of the year. Other than stocks, been a decent year, wife just got a great promotion (* I dig it, don’t mind be the retired cook/bus boy in a few years) and my car is paid off in a few months so free cash is looking up even with college costs.

 
Nothing that is going on right now is causing me to be concerned long term.  Maybe my only fear is that I don't buy enough now and regret it in 5, 10, 15 years.  

All these talking heads can F-off with all this "I'm not calling for a recession now, but 2023-2024..." fear too.  They can't even make sense of these fed rates and daily swings that are in their face right now.  I'm not sitting on millions or billions so I'm not going to be scared or prep for something that might happen in a year or two.  It probably will.  Likely have 2-3 more significant dips or recessions in the next 10-15 years too.  Kind of how the patterns go.  

 
beef said:
Nothing that is going on right now is causing me to be concerned long term.  Maybe my only fear is that I don't buy enough now and regret it in 5, 10, 15 years.  

All these talking heads can F-off with all this "I'm not calling for a recession now, but 2023-2024..." fear too.  They can't even make sense of these fed rates and daily swings that are in their face right now.  I'm not sitting on millions or billions so I'm not going to be scared or prep for something that might happen in a year or two.  It probably will.  Likely have 2-3 more significant dips or recessions in the next 10-15 years too.  Kind of how the patterns go.  
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Cramer’s still my favorite. Just last week he was pounding the table saying the bear market is over and you have to buy. This morning he said you can’t buy into this market and he’s divesting his positions in a big way. 

 
SFBayDuck said:
2Squirrels1Nut said:
Looking to invest in the upcoming (my opinion) housing market collapse.  I found DRV but not sure it's the right vehicle for my goal.

Thoughts anyone?  TIA
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Thesis?  My take is that it would seem demographics (boomers still in their homes while millennials are ready to buy) and historically low new housing building rates the past few years would prevent a collapse. There is just still too much demand and too little supply.  I do see the ridiculous price increases falling back towards historical norms going forward as rates go up and the frothiness subsides.  But I'm always interested in other opinions.
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Here's another

Surging interest rates push mortgage demand down more than 40% from a year ago

Bumping again a way to play this if anyone has a suggestion.  I don't think DRV is the way to go. 

I'm not very good at the Internet. :bag:

NM

I found REK which is -1x and the best for an accumulative strategy and SRS which is -2x and better for a short term trade.

 
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2Squirrels1Nut said:
It may not be a crash like last time however I think things will get ugly really fast.  The situation is very similar except this time we have inflation to deal with too. 
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Things may get ugly, but the situation really isn't very similar to last time. That was literally the wild wild west with all sorts of shenanigans causing the unsustainable bubble. Not nearly as much of the "zero money down no income verification" stuff going on now, this is much more old fashioned supply and demand.

 
beef said:
I used to be a NB guy for the same reason.  Then I tried a Hoka.   No more NB for me.     
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Yeah, that's what my co-workers uses and he swears by it.

I was at Nordstrom's Rack yesterday and was going to buy another pair of NB but there was a pair of Asics next to them for $20 less.  Tried them on and noticed the cushioned soles put me back over 6 feet tall, so I bought them.  At least they aren't velcro.

 
humpback said:
Things may get ugly, but the situation really isn't very similar to last time. That was literally the wild wild west with all sorts of shenanigans causing the unsustainable bubble. Not nearly as much of the "zero money down no income verification" stuff going on now, this is much more old fashioned supply and demand.
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Mostly true but not entirely.  As previously posted as well, inflation wasn't an issue back then either.   I think supply outstrips demand sooner than later.  Then we're back in the same situation where people have a loan on a house whose value has dropped so much home owners will begin to walk away.   I hope I'm wrong.

ETA re: bolded

Mortgage Rules

The Biden administration hinted it may dismantle mortgage rules inked during the waning days of Donald Trump’s presidency.

Those Trump-era rules erase protections for borrowers and may open the door to risky loans that led the housing bubble to burst in the 2008 financial crisis, according to some consumer advocates.
Click to expand...

 
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stbugs said:
Agreed it is annoying. Every up day is big and then a bigger down day. I don’t see how a Fed being hawkish changes things aren’t we betting on 7 or 8 bumps in interest rates this year? Isn’t that a pretty hawkish sentiment?

I still have plenty of cash (dollar wise) but I’ve got no plans for it. Too volatile. If we get back to some of those 3/14 lows, I may bite a little bit but it’s still crazy and I’m not a day trader, too damn busy. I guess we just keep maxing out the 401ks and see where that gets us closer to the end of the year. Other than stocks, been a decent year, wife just got a great promotion (* I dig it, don’t mind be the retired cook/bus boy in a few years) and my car is paid off in a few months so free cash is looking up even with college costs.
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So the 401k money is buying into elections?  That's opposite of holding cash because of volatility.  At some point doesn't DCA kick in?

I'm going to be really selective and buy big dips on any new stocks, but, the good blue chip names I've had for a long time I'm just looking at it as DCAing and make sure I put in new money on down days.  I can't afford to hold cash loosing out to high inflation for 1+ years.

 
2Squirrels1Nut said:
Mostly true but not entirely.  As previously posted as well, inflation wasn't an issue back then either.   I think supply outstrips demand sooner than later.  Then we're back in the same situation where people have a loan on a house whose value has dropped so much home owners will begin to walk away.   I hope I'm wrong.

ETA re: bolded

Mortgage Rules
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Well, if inflation wasn't an issue back then, that's just another reason why the situations aren't similar.  :P

Seriously though, people currently have record levels of home equity, and lenders now rarely let you keep less than a 20% equity stake even when "cashing out". Prices would have to drop a ton for it to make financial sense for people to walk away, which is very unlike back then when people were refinancing back to 0% equity every time prices went up a couple of %.

Supply may outstrip demand at some point, but total housing inventory is at all time lows vs. all time highs during the bubble.

Again, not saying everything looks rosy for the housing market- rising rates is obviously a big headwind- but things are very different now than they were during the bubble. It's possible that we end up with a similar outcome (although I don't think so), but if we do it would be for very different reasons IMO.

 
PhillipPhoto said:
So the 401k money is buying into elections?  That's opposite of holding cash because of volatility.  At some point doesn't DCA kick in?

I'm going to be really selective and buy big dips on any new stocks, but, the good blue chip names I've had for a long time I'm just looking at it as DCAing and make sure I put in new money on down days.  I can't afford to hold cash loosing out to high inflation for 1+ years.
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Yeah, maxing 401ks is just funds. No real options for stocks in either, but yes all of that is on auto-pilot and DCAing. I don’t mind some cash, need to have some buying power and I’ll be honest, I don’t trust the market is truly bottomed out yet.

 
Whoring myself for more BNKU at these 52 week lows.  

Continues to be my top holding in my play money accounts making up about 30% of my total port.  Come on markets, just give me a reason to make it 40%!

 
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I still like SOFI long term as a significant player in the financial world, but I really misjudged this short term period.  Starting to wonder if/when it becomes "SOFI" ©JP Morgan Chase.

 
Doubled up on QQQ at $350 and AMD at $102.50 this morning. Had sold the QQQ I bought at $335 when it hit $366 last week.  Back in for some more.  These swings are wild.

 
beef said:
I still like SOFI long term as a significant player in the financial world, but I really misjudged this short term period.  Starting to wonder if/when it becomes "SOFI" ©JP Morgan Chase.
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I have owned and traded SOFI two times and made cash each time. But it reminds me of chewy, lemonade,  companies with great ideas but don’t make money.  The student loan pause killed SOFI again.  I am buyer again if it gets to the low sevens, if not plenty of real bargains out their now.

 
I don't have the stomach to check in everyday during these swings, but I too love COST and am glad to hear it may be propping up my brokerage account.

 
Todem said:
Sit tight on that one. 

I have a $15-$20 target on it. Their platform in that space is second to none. 

Super high speculative stock in an area of consumer discretionary  I feel is going to blow up in a good way.

Patience will pay off.
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Thank you!  Thoughts on the ROTH IRA stuff I PMd you?

 
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