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Stock Thread (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Ozark sequel? Feels like an island somewhere in the Caribbean could be the move.The Man With No Name said:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Was just having this conversation on our cruise. When we stopped at Castaway Cay (Disney private island) we were wondering how long until they add a theme park there. There is plenty of space.
Capella
Footballguy
They could add like 5 more theme parks in Orlando with all the land they own. I doubt they branch out of there — they want to keep those hotels full.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
This is a much better response and of the level I would expect from FBG's.FreeBaGeL said:Twitter has 1000x the political/woke backlash of Disney, with an alternative that that has 1 million times the funding and celebrity power more than the as of yet uninvented Disney alternative you're dreaming up, and it has effected Twitter's bottom line essentially zero.
There have been dozens of companies in the limelight for wokeness over the years. Whether it be race or sexual preference or now gender identity, it always goes the same and doesn't matter in the end. A handful of emotional people getting riled up and ranting on social media and then forgetting about it two weeks aren't going to change a quarter trillion dollar company's bottom line. Few people are actually going to follow through on denying their children the happiness that all the other little kids are getting to make some stand, and the few that do are immediately canceled out by the people that spend extra in support of it.
It'll all eventually be everywhere anyways, and people will just have to accept that if they want to watch TV or movies or generally have fun sometimes there are going to be gay people/characters out there. The same way people in the 70's eventually had to accept that about interracial couples in entertainment. That will happen long before some magical alternative to the insanely massive kid conglomerate of Disney is ever thought up, much less executed on.
I have a pretty decent chunk of Disney stock. This is like 1,134th on the list of things I'd worry about for it. The likelihood it ever actually affects the stock price is infinitesimal imo.
And, as others have mentioned, Disney I'm sure has done the calculations on this. Multi billion dollar public corporations aren't exactly known for their altruistic behavior at the expense of their bottom line, so I doubt this is politically or societally motivated so much as it is motivated by the profits.
First, let me clarify that I am not concerned about a 'boycott' type of effect of mass cancels of Disney+ or not watching movies or going to parks etc. What I am concerned about is more of the same way I would think of the monetary policy of buying bonds by the Fed over the last few years. By itself and in context, it is not something that will make or break things when it comes to inflation. However, it is an inflationary pressure and coupled with other things can quickly add up to high inflation (please see now). What I mean by that is the thing that caught my eye on that survey was the "less likely" to do business. What does that mean to me? Well, it means that not much else has to break a certain way for a decision like the following: "Disney+ raised rates? Forget it. I didn't like how they were doing things anyways... I am not paying more. I will go ahead and cancel." or "We were thinking of going to Disney this summer but you know, we decided to head to spend our money at Universal instead" These are things that will happen. The question is to how much and what degree which is what I was asking here to get other views and ideas on it. Instead getting "how bizarre" crap was very disappointing as I expected more from FBG's outside of the political forum.
My own viewing of ESPN is also something I think of. Many years ago, I was an ESPN junky. If I was watching TV there was a decent bet that it was ESPN. Over time, with a bit of a liberal slant, this thing here, that thing there, etc and there was no actual specific decision of "I am not watching ESPN anymore" but I migrated away from it. Now, it is very rare for me to watch ESPN. I don't make it a point to not watch it but I just don't watch it anymore. As much as it is hard for me to think of not watching Marvel or Star Wars, back then, it would have been as insane for me to think I rarely watch ESPN much at all.
As for using Twitter as an analogy, I don't think that that is a good comparison. It comes down to children. There are plenty of people that have a live and let live philosophy about much of things specially those who are center/right. They may be irritated or not like something but oh well.... but then mess around with their kids and they will take action. Push it more and more and there is a breaking point for many of these people. In a similar way, is there really an offset to this for those who may applaud it? It isn't like you can buy extra Disney+. Are people going to make extra trips to the parks because "yea gay content for kids"? I am not sure I see that but I do see potential lost customers- the question again, is how much and is it significant?
As for the idea that "well, they are smart and must have done their research" first... I don't automatically buy that. When an exec is talking about how she wants to add gay/trans etc things to all content because of her gay and pan sexual (or whatever it was) kids... you are going to tell me that that is something she went and did a research study on about how this was a good business decision? I am a little suspicious of that. Further, even if you showed me actual proof that they have done major research on this, it still would not be a factor to me. Why? Back in 2006 I was at an all manager meeting for a large bank. At that point it was glaringly evident to me that a major real estate correction was coming (I thought it would be a correction, I had not clue of the extent that would actually happen). While listening to them basically outright say that they were going to double down on high margin loans (essentially the loans you DO NOT want to do going into a correction let alone a meltdown we had) I literally had the thought "Well, they are smarter than me and have much more information that I do." and I ignored my own views and perspective. About a year and half or so later, the company was gone and I lost six figures of my own money. That is experience is burned into my mind and conscious on every financial decision I make from now on. I will listen to what people that are smarter than me will say but I also want to see data or have the logic or line of thinking to make me change MY mind. I will never, ever, ever just say "well, they are smarter than me..." on anything that I have any amount of understanding, experience, knowledge of etc (I mean, someone blabs on about Quantum Physics, then yes, I will say that and move on in life).
I am still not sold either way.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Meh... with my entire life having lived in California and Illinois as well as being very accepting of people regardless of their political and/or social views giving them respect as long as they also respect me.... I don't think I am in an echo chamber. At the same time, yes, I do have conservative friends. So, I do have a pulse on the thoughts/feelings of those right of center.ConstruxBoy said:
I tend to bust any echo's not only because of where I have lived all my life but that I have always trended to seeking out what the other or opposite thinking or beliefs are as a way to think through my own thoughts and beliefs. The funny thing is that my liberal friends seem to think of me as being hard core conservative and my conservative friends seem to think I am too... I wouldn't say liberal but not conservative enough. I am not partisan (though I do find one party lining up with my thinking much more so than the other) and have no qualms bucking trends or the group think. One example of this would have been previously supportive of gay marriage being law well before it was.
I would also point out, that I am not saying this WILL happen. I still own the stock and have not yet sold (though it has been on a downward trend). I simply asked the question and was looking for the thoughts and reasoning of others interested in the stock decisions, this is actually an example of how I tend to seek to leave any potential echo chambers in my life.
glvsav37
Footballguy
If disney really wanted to ease the capacity in the florida theme parks (which they clearly don't) they would build a park somewhere in South America. A large percentage of tourists come from that area, esp in group tours. Putting a park there would make the trip more accessible. Plus if you could put it close enough to water/cruise port to make it a stop on the cruise line would be a major win.The Man With No Name said:
However someone mentioned Universal. Right now, IMO Universal is poised to make a major leap forward in the orlando theme park market and take a big chuck out of WDW. For starters they are working on their 3rd (or 4th depending on how you look at it) park. And while that might seem a long distance thing, UO has proven that their construction times are 2-3x quicker then WDW's. So while right now UO's new park is already going vertical, as far as we know WDW has no plans for a major expansion. So with that, the new UO park (Epic Universe) is expected to be 2 years away from opening, WDW can't build a single ride within a 3 year time span. The newest ride to open in WDW is in Epcot, Guardians of the Galaxy themes AND it took over an already existing building—and it was announced back in Aug of 2017, it's April of 22 now and it's just starting previews. By comparison, UO broke ground on a whole new coaster in Jan of 2019 and opened it in April of 21. Granted Covid effected both of these, but the timelines still favor UO. If WDW was to break ground today (which they are clearly not) on a new park, it wouldn't open until (est) 2027-2030 based on their average construction time. Even a park extension would be min 5 years away. Where as Disneyland was built in 1 year and WDW/Magic Kingdom was built in 18 months.
Also, UO has been very deliberate to sit back and let Disney stuff its foot in its mouth over and over again. And not just with the current political stuff. When Covid was waining and the parks were opening, WDW suspended its Annual Pass program, even for FL residents. UO was like, "AP's sure we got them, come on in neighbor." When Disney killed their free FP service and replaced it with a very complicated, pay-for access, limited ride, cell phone based system, UO was like "sure we charge for ours, but you always got every ride included and its a free perk for deluxe resort guests. Come on over and see." Disney cancels their complimentary shuttle service from the airport to the resort? OU "Hey Disney just voluntarily removed a huge barrier from preventing you from visiting here, so...come on over"
I follow both parks closely (as a fan, not investor) and I am doubling down on UO as the destination of fed-up Disney fans.
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Desert_Power
Footballguy
Looks like that island is about 1000 acres. Disneyland and Magic Kingdom are both about 100 acres. Doable. Not sure how much space is needed for an airstrip
glvsav37
Footballguy
the problem the orlando property faces is that there is already too much to do in your typical 5-7 day vacation there. So guests leave disappointed that they didn't "see everything" Adding a 5th gate in WDW will only make it that much harder. They have to look at other areas and asia and europe are already covered.
glvsav37
Footballguy
the challenge with making a theme park a cruise excursion is being able to keep the boat there all night. It cant be an "off the boat at 10 and back on by 6" thing. You need the port space for 1 or multiple night stopovers. CastAway Key is such a popular destination and a true selling point for the cruise line that it needs to turn over the dock space almost everyday.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
That is why I mentioned the airstrip (didn't notice it until FreeBagel mentioned it. It's tiny). You'd want to add some hotels with the park. Then it is both a cruise excursion AND a standalone destination. Time it with a reboot of Pirates of the Caribbean.
glvsav37
Footballguy
Apologies if the Disney discussion got off topic. I'd love to continue it over in the Disney thread. There's a few people would would enjoy the discussion.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
What are the thoughts on the end game with TWTR?
The drama seems to be heating up.
The drama seems to be heating up.
Todem
Footballguy
I like some big Pharma like MRK and we have owned PFE a while and will start to trim a little.SFBayDuck said:
As far as oil…..sell half on positions you are up 100% plus. The rest is house money.
When we bought PEO back in April 2020 we are now up 150% in it. Sold half when oil hit 127ish a barrel. Oil will slowly fall back over the next 12-18 months…..take your profits!!!
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
The Man With No Name said:
Walt originally wanted to build it in St.Louis. However Busch II, who held considerable power, insisted they sell beer at the park. Walt would have none of it so changed the plans to Orlando. Just one of the many, many, many,.........many, things the St. Louis region has managed to screw up in the last hundred years or so.
Anyway, hope you cats are making a fortune!
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Lose money on Lucid (LCID) between November 15, 2021 and February 28, 2022?
Class action suit info https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/04/17/2423456/0/en/LCID-EQUITY-ALERT-ROSEN-A-TRUSTED-AND-LEADING-LAW-FIRM-Encourages-Lucid-Group-Inc-Investors-with-Losses-in-Excess-of-100K-to-Secure-Counsel-Before-Important-Deadline-in-Securities-.html
Class action suit info https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/04/17/2423456/0/en/LCID-EQUITY-ALERT-ROSEN-A-TRUSTED-AND-LEADING-LAW-FIRM-Encourages-Lucid-Group-Inc-Investors-with-Losses-in-Excess-of-100K-to-Secure-Counsel-Before-Important-Deadline-in-Securities-.html
identikit
Footballguy
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
Can't find the option thread, so will post here that I'm getting a little 
about my 160 AAPL 4/29 Put. It's cash secured and I've been looking to start an Apple position, but that would be a pretty big stake for me, and I was more planning on rotating through puts for a few months rather than having the first one trigger.
about my 160 AAPL 4/29 Put. It's cash secured and I've been looking to start an Apple position, but that would be a pretty big stake for me, and I was more planning on rotating through puts for a few months rather than having the first one trigger.
McBokonon
Footballguy
You could always roll ‘em. Close out that one by buying it to close (looks like 3.90 or so today) and sell a new one with the same 165 strike on May 20 for about 5.80 today. Just an example.Can't find the option thread, so will post here that I'm getting a little
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PhillipPhoto
Footballguy
Why did the Disney Thread get merged with the Stock Thread?
McBokonon
Footballguy
Fulgent Genetics to acquire Inform Diagnostics for $170M, raises Q1 guidanceGeneral Malaise said:
- Fulgent Genetics (NASDAQ:FLGT) to acquire Inform Diagnostics, a national independent pathology laboratory based in Irving, Texas, and a portfolio company of Avista Capital Partners.
- Total purchase price of ~$170M, closing expected in Q2.
- For Q1, anticipates total revenue to be ~$300M compared to previous guidance of $245M. (consensus $244.65M)
- Also, company now expects core revenue for FY 2022 to be ~$175M, compared to previous guidance of $120M.
- Core revenue excluding COVID-19 NGS testing to be at least $22M, consistent with previous guidance.
—————————————————————————-
It might take a while for this story to fully play out, but this is what a growth company with a pile of cash should be doing. A cash dividend for this company at this stage would be asinine. There’s a completely different timetable and reasoning for owning something like Fulgent than a dividend stock. I have dividend stocks, too, but at my age those are ballast against the rough rides you get with stuff like FLGT. You can never predict when it will take off, so I’m just making sure I’m in it when it does.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Bullard taking about possible :75 rate increase. I hate the Fed. But I have exited a significant amount of tech and rotated into RIO, and grain commodities, and strong dividend paying stocks.
Todem
Footballguy
Bullard loves to hear himself talk.
.75 ain’t happening. No freaking way. But if it spooks the market.....take advantage.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Couple of weeks of earnings from the big guys headed our way. 
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
certainly seems like they’re trying to talk rates up and the market down so they have to do less.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Something is very wrong. I see a lot of green instead of red.
Won't complain though
Won't complain though
Todem
Footballguy
The market has done most of the work so far in terms of yields rising.....and they have only raised the overnight once so far......futures have priced in now almost 8 rate hikes by December at a .25 basis point at a time.
Remains to be seen just how many raises they do this year.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
NFLX earnings after hours. I loaded up on the dips and would really appreciate the start of the turnaround in the price.
General Malaise
Footballguy
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Good day to be an Alphamin Resources stock holder.
Capella
Footballguy
Gopher State
Footballguy
Wow, big dip after earnings. Now it’s dragging Disney down with it. I buy NFLX if it drops to 250.00.
Capella
Footballguy
Gopher State
Footballguy
They lost 200,000 paid views in the first quarter. First time in 10 years that the reported negative viewer growth. Down 22 percent in after hours.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
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JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
I guess I just hang on and hope Stranger Things brings everyone back.Were expected to add 2.5M
Steeler
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Turrible
