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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Man, I thought initially the NFLX was an overreaction, but not so sure reading up a bit.
Never owned the stock, it's one of those companies that I like their product, but hate the stock. I was listening to something the other day about how they drive their subs - their pricing in like India is $1/month. So, they always are showing strong Asia growth, yeah, no kidding. But this quarter they lost 600,000+ US subscriptions which are their most profitable I believe and 700,000 in Europe due to the Russia/Ukraine war and a lot of those people aren't coming back. And they keep driving up monthly rates thinking people are just going to suck it up. Yeah, I pay it, but not real happy about it, but honestly, I can pretty easily afford a 5/month rate hike here and there. Eventually though, one of these services will be dropped and NFLX will be #1 on the queue for me as it's much pricier than Disney/Hulu/ESPN and even though I held out subscribing to HBO for a long while, I like their programming more I think.
And then NFLX blames password sharing for lost subs, come on. Is that really a large factor?
I will say though that at current price it could be a takeover candidate. They have a massive library and 225+million subscribers is nothing to scoff at.
Never owned the stock, it's one of those companies that I like their product, but hate the stock. I was listening to something the other day about how they drive their subs - their pricing in like India is $1/month. So, they always are showing strong Asia growth, yeah, no kidding. But this quarter they lost 600,000+ US subscriptions which are their most profitable I believe and 700,000 in Europe due to the Russia/Ukraine war and a lot of those people aren't coming back. And they keep driving up monthly rates thinking people are just going to suck it up. Yeah, I pay it, but not real happy about it, but honestly, I can pretty easily afford a 5/month rate hike here and there. Eventually though, one of these services will be dropped and NFLX will be #1 on the queue for me as it's much pricier than Disney/Hulu/ESPN and even though I held out subscribing to HBO for a long while, I like their programming more I think.
And then NFLX blames password sharing for lost subs, come on. Is that really a large factor?
I will say though that at current price it could be a takeover candidate. They have a massive library and 225+million subscribers is nothing to scoff at.
identikit
Footballguy
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Desert_Power
Footballguy
Also can't help that a lot of their streaming competitors are individually cheaper and easier to find promotions on IMO
Capella
Footballguy
Bought it at 384 6 weeks ago and thought I was getting a deal. This one is going to be a dog for a while.
General Malaise
Footballguy
That's the word on the street. Its a fabulous little company that's incredibly attractive. I hope you kept some!
Almost bought this the other day, not sure what tipped me onto it but I didn't. What's this stock all about and is it still worth buying into?
identikit
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Its biggest asset is a producing tin mine in the DRC. Great quality tin which is a critical metal for chip manufacturing. As you may know, there is a shortage of chips and you ain't making them without tin. As a result, tin prices are through the roof and you can't buy it fast enough. This company has paid off all it's debt and rewarded share holders with a dividend in Q1. I know I know "dividends are for your grandfather, GM!" But I think they are a sign of good health.
Anyhow, somebody is probably going to buy them and pay a premium. It's a Canadian resource stock which generally scares off buyers but this is a damn good company and I think they could be bought at at a double to where they are now. Imo.
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I've been a member since the DVD in the mail days but find I almost never watch it any longer.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
laissez faire
I do believe it's a pretty big issue too. I never understood why for most of their streaming existence they took a laissez faire attitude towards password sharing. There are some corners of the Internet outraged that they can't, at least not supposed to, use their friend's login any more which is kind of crazy.
I do believe it's a pretty big issue too. I never understood why for most of their streaming existence they took a laissez faire attitude towards password sharing. There are some corners of the Internet outraged that they can't, at least not supposed to, use their friend's login any more which is kind of crazy.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
At this price Disney, Microsoft or any number of companies would be a fool not snap them up. Of course they would need to clear SEC hurdles.
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Netflix does kinda suck. It's worth it to have for the 12 bucks a month I guess, but their library of movies is just dull. Some stuff for kids to watch, but you can just as easily watch free stuff on youtube.
Oh well. Only had a few shares, just bought a few more at 260.
Oh well. Only had a few shares, just bought a few more at 260.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Why would Amazon buy out Netflix?? Couldnt they essentially just put them out of business instead?
identikit
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
I’m assuming more and more people are doing what we do and dropping services until there’s multiple things piled up we want to watch, sign up, binge, cancel, move on to the other service where things were piling, rinse and repeat. I haven’t had Netflix in months and when I do, it’ll be for maybe 1-2 months at a time. Competition is catching up to them, finally. The fact that they tried to get into games should have been a hint that even they knew they wouldn’t have a content stranglehold forever.
All the big players pulling their content for their own startup services is finally catching up to them. All those other services are pricing their services as loss leaders to blow-up subscriptions too. You can get all the major streamers for serious discounts if you know when and where to look. Eventually one or more of them will implode or have to merge. Amazon just bought MGM, and the CW is likely on the chopping block soon for example. Another big player like D+ will probably soon get saturated and eventually start raising prices.
Netflix has shot themselves in the foot in many ways though, producing and then cancelling too many shows too soon a big one. Having a throw everything at the wall and see what sticks approach to original content. Sticking with the binge model that doesn’t work long-term for building up fan bases and spurring talk about your original content as well.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Netflix should have invested in known properties as a way to keep a hook in people and not rented it but bought it to own.
There is a lot of content and so much of it is not compelling at all. There are a few shows that I look forward to. Witcher, Ozarks, Peaky Blinders, The Last Kingdom are the ones that come to mind. Peaky Blinders is wrapping up and The Last Kingdom is done.
They got Voltron and did a good job with that but ended the series.
The seem rudderless in their content too. What they greenlight and then cancel seems almost at the mood swings of some exec.
I held out from Netflix for a long time. I finally broker down after a free trial and binging Daredevil. I go on Netflix now and there just anything interesting like that anymore.
There is a lot of content and so much of it is not compelling at all. There are a few shows that I look forward to. Witcher, Ozarks, Peaky Blinders, The Last Kingdom are the ones that come to mind. Peaky Blinders is wrapping up and The Last Kingdom is done.
They got Voltron and did a good job with that but ended the series.
The seem rudderless in their content too. What they greenlight and then cancel seems almost at the mood swings of some exec.
I held out from Netflix for a long time. I finally broker down after a free trial and binging Daredevil. I go on Netflix now and there just anything interesting like that anymore.
Capella
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Also, with inflation and a coming recession... I think the waters will get worse before it gets better.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I would like it 100x more if there was an option to delete movies/shows from your search so you never have to sift through them again.identikit said:
If I could rid 95% of the crap who knows, I might actually see some things I want to watch instead of being angry at looking through the same thousand piles of crap every time I want to try and find something to watch.
Gopher State
Footballguy
So now NETFLIX says it projects to lose two million subscribers in the second quarter. Sell Forest sell!
culdeus
Footballguy
You forgot they bought up every action movie that wasnt superhero led in the last 6 years that didn't get north of 50% on RT.
Capella
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Well I guess I'm the weird one because there's a lot of content I enjoy on Netflix. If I had to choose just 1 streaming service that would be it.
I guess this earnings report shows that's not a popular opinion though.
I think more people decided to spin up a Netflix subscription just temporarily during covid than we originally thought too.
I guess this earnings report shows that's not a popular opinion though.
I think more people decided to spin up a Netflix subscription just temporarily during covid than we originally thought too.
Sand
Footballguy
Chance they overshot to the left over the last number of years - 100%.
Chance they'll overshoot to the right with inflation panic raises - 100%.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I figured it was like ROME with HBO where HBO and..... was it BBC or Sky or.... some brit network... co-produced them.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
The guy who directed it is the reason that show is dead.
And we loved that show.
NFLX is brutal today…….and I am not going to sit here and say buy today with that horrendous earnings call yesterday.
But I will say this….5 years from (yeah who cares about 5 years from now on this thread let alone next year) Netflix will still be the #1 giant in the streaming wars. I think the brand is getting hit hard with the predictable saturation of streaming providers….but in the end I am willing to say most people when they start cancelling for the long term…..will cancel most everything else and keep Netflix.
There will be most certainly more consolidation coming in the next few years too. The time for another company to grab Netflix was a while ago…..could it happen now? Doubtful but never say never. But it is highly doubtful.
No reason to sell into this bloodshed. But yeah this stock is gonna be dead money for a few years. I will check back on this stock in 24-36 months and write covered calls on it till then.
Is what it is.
To counter the argument against the content on Netflix…coming soon to Netflix…
Ozark - end of April 2022
Umbrella Academy - June 2022
Stranger Things - Summer 2022
All three shows above have been hits for Netflix.
And I’m not a fan of those silly dating shows but I think they are popular with chicks and the younger crowd. Besides, they are probably dirt cheap to make.
Ozark - end of April 2022
Umbrella Academy - June 2022
Stranger Things - Summer 2022
All three shows above have been hits for Netflix.
And I’m not a fan of those silly dating shows but I think they are popular with chicks and the younger crowd. Besides, they are probably dirt cheap to make.
Todem
Footballguy
I have been able to find plenty to watch on Netflix….and they have been producing some great movies and always seem to have shows I get hooked on all the time.
The playing field is going thru a transitional phase as many competitors have entered the fray…….as a long term bull on the company my case is NFLX will win the war…but they lost the battle here in 2022 and probably 2023.
Today is a painful day for shareholders. No two ways about it. And it will be a grind for the next 1-2 years.
McBokonon
Footballguy
The thing is, I can wait until Stranger Things drops, sign back up, watch all three, cancel. Unless they bring back the dreaded contract, that’ll continue.
Does Netflix report churn/retention? I’d be curious about that. I think Disney were the first ones who reported, or at least talked about, how many people canceled after trials and it was pretty high but my first half-### search just now came up empty. I wonder how these streaming services in general are going to strengthen retention without contracts, which won’t happen, or go back to weekly episodes instead of dropping entire shows at once.
Anyway, I’m not a NFLX bull or bear but I’d want to see some retention strategies in addition to their overseas growth (and at what customer acquisition cost and are they reporting churn) before I add them to my watchlist.
Gopher State
Footballguy
When I see what happen to Netflix it is always a reality check for me that bad things can happen to a good company. It puts me on edge that something like this could happen to Apple or Amazon which I am overweight in. But you have to believe long term in good companies, you can’t retire 100 percent on dividend stocks.
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Content is not the issue at all, imho.
Netflix spends $17 BILLION/year on content. Obviously they have content in spades. The stock is priced as a growth stock. In order to grow, you need subscriptions to increase. Analysts were looking at 2.5 million+ subscriber GROWTH this year. Netflix has guided to losing 2.2 million subscribers this year. And, everyone seems to gloss over that the subscribers they are losing are at the 12-20/month range, and the ones they are adding are at the 1-2/month range. Not sustainable.
I like Netflix, I've subscribed forever. I can find plenty to watch. But the stock, yeesh. Not to mention they are now competing against the #1, #4 and #5 businesses in the world for streaming. These companies (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG) have massive free cash flow, whereas NFLX does not. That's not to mention DIS which gets massive boosts from the Star Wars and Marvel franchises.
I can see NFLX bouncing off this massive drop for a bit, but unless you see a huge growth in subscribers in the back of of 2022 (doubt it), the stock will tank again.
I think NFLX needs to tighten up their spending a lot, I mean their movie contracts with the likes of Sandler and Smith are crazy money. Their CEO is a lot smarter than me and has seen the writing on the wall for lower subscriptions for a while now, thus the foray into gaming and the ties in to the Asian market which is still booming. But if they need to start adding an ad based option, I think it's going to be watch out below until a bigger fish tries to buy them.
Todem
Footballguy
I agree 100% Stocks do not move in a straight line. And when you believe in a company long term it is akin to a roller coaster.
The last time NFLX had this kind of negative sentiment was back in 2012. And there was a ton of talk Apple would buy them out. The stock price was siting around 67 a share then. No one is coming in and buying Netflix today.
They will figure things out in terms of monetizing more of their IP. Streaming is mainstream (pun intended) and TV has completely changed. But in the end it comes down to content and value added. I believe Netflix has that power and they will need to figure out different ways to monetize their services and evolve and meet the competition head-on. There are far too many series out there now. The whole “cut the cable” is dead. By the time to add everything you want you are paying close to what you would for Xfinity or Direct TV again.
Consolidation is on the horizon and there will be 2-3 major players left standing 5 years from now IMO. And then some very minor auxiliary the streamers.
The blood shed today in NFLX is deserved.....the quarter was horrible in terms of growth. But.....the fact they are cash flow positive and have a massive runway of overseas growth, content power unlike most others, and different ways they can monetize password sharing (they are too blind on that but it will happen and be successful) add commercial plans in addition to premium ad free.....lot;s of things they are going do.
I think NFLX, DIS and AMZN are the big three.....and the rest are truly way behind. People are in a frenzy of trying different stuff.....but in the end it will be these three with NFLX being #1 in the world of premium streaming services. And if I am wrong.....then we are wrong and we sell at some point. But NFLX isn’t going anywhere. I think this is a big transitional period of a growth company that has matured domestically and they need to update their model while growing overseas.
Capella
Footballguy
After my disappointment with them last night, I think Netflix is going to look like a buy situation here for long-term investors, of which I am one. Definitely annoying though.
