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Stock Thread (24 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
McBokonon
Footballguy
I don't know how Powell remains so patient when he's doing these things.
Powell: "Again, we can really only speak to the Fed and what the Fed can do, and have no interest in offering opinions on political matters."
Every Single Congressperson: "Thank you, Chair Powell. Now, can you just say out loud that everything is the other party's fault and that they suck and my party is great?"
Powell: "Again, we can really only speak to the Fed and what the Fed can do, and have no interest in offering opinions on political matters."
Every Single Congressperson: "Thank you, Chair Powell. Now, can you just say out loud that everything is the other party's fault and that they suck and my party is great?"
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
No kidding. It's like Birch Barlow grilling Mayor Quimby. Can we please stay on topic people?
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Somebody pass the Dramamine. :X
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
So it looks like this quarter's GDP number comes out on the 29th. I expect it will probably be negative, which would be the 2nd negative quarter in a row which would mean we're officially in a recession.
I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing, as the average post WW2 era recession lasts about 11 months, and that would mean we're already 6 months into it (more than half way to being done with it potentially) instead of starting at the whole thing out in front of us. But I'm just thinking about how to play the markets and I'm thinking combined with this bounce the last few days it could spur a major short-term selloff just because the word "recession" has become so villainized and over politicized.
What are everyone else's thoughts? The flip side of that would be if the institutions are bullish because of the reasons I laid out above (we might be well on our way to being done w/ recession instead of still anticipating it happening soon). But it seems like something that might really spook the markets for a little while with everyone throwing around the word like the sky is falling.
I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing, as the average post WW2 era recession lasts about 11 months, and that would mean we're already 6 months into it (more than half way to being done with it potentially) instead of starting at the whole thing out in front of us. But I'm just thinking about how to play the markets and I'm thinking combined with this bounce the last few days it could spur a major short-term selloff just because the word "recession" has become so villainized and over politicized.
What are everyone else's thoughts? The flip side of that would be if the institutions are bullish because of the reasons I laid out above (we might be well on our way to being done w/ recession instead of still anticipating it happening soon). But it seems like something that might really spook the markets for a little while with everyone throwing around the word like the sky is falling.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Oh make no mistake, if a recession is officially confirmed, the news will hit every wire and every news outlet and you will see Dow -4%, S&P down 4.5%, Nasdaq down 5%. Potentially for multiple days. We don't want that.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Steeler
Footballguy
Can we discuss TWTR? I realize there is downside risk if the sale does not go through, but the board recently approved the sale. Currently trading at ~39 and if the sale goes through it will be for 54.20 per share or ~38% more. I'm somewhat surprised it's so far below 54 right now... is the expectation still that the sale won't go through for some reason? At some point, the price has to drift towards 54 if the same is imminent, right?
Steeler
Footballguy
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/heres-where-things-are-elon-musks-twitter-purchase
Just saw this today - Musk has been given more data by twitter and apparently there is still the outstanding question (for Musk) about the number of bots at the site... which could change the valuation I guess if the percentage of bots is higher that originally thought.
Also, Must said: “There is the question of, will the debt portion of the round come together, and then, will the shareholders vote in favor".
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
This was within 3% and four days of the recent bottom so feeling pretty good about it. A couple of those chips that were pushed in on 6/13 are coming off already, the short-term calls. Don't want to roll those dice much longer and, in fact, would look to be selling some covered calls. I don't have any holdings of 100 shares to make that happen today but would've if I could've. Holding firm on the stock side.
As mentioned before, it's impossible to time the bottom or any other short-term movements but I will say that it doesn't feel like smooth sailing from here. Will we re-test the lows from 6/17 (SPY of 362)? Definitely feels possible, as is the likelihood that this week was a short term power move up as part of the broader bear market. So I'm staying mostly invested (~90%) but taking those super risky plays off the table heading into the weekend. GLTA.
KGB
Footballguy
up 10% before earnings. just like i called itKGB said:Carnival Corporation CCL is scheduled to report second-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Jun 24. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 34.2%.
Earnings tomrrow. im probably buying the dip
still have leaps though
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Gopher State
Footballguy
In this market it’s always good to sell some on the rallies and buy in the deep dips. All eyes will be on the CIP report next month. I plan to sell a little on Monday if the market is flat or up.NajehHejan said:
Actually, the market is pretty forward looking so confirming the recession could start a bit of a rally. The big drops are in anticipation, not the confirmation. Recession rumors obviously make things go down but it’s still the buy the rumor, sell the news action just a different direction. Stocks can run up in anticipation of great earnings and then the stock dips once you see the actual results because the run up kind of already happened and the rally only continues if the news was better than expected.NajehHejan said:
Stocks will be on the way up when we are officially in a recession news comes out. The question may be more about how long the recession lasts and if there could still be more worse news out there.
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
Went on a business trip to Europe and middle east and it was a disaster trying to get back due to manpower shortages in US, Canada, and Europe. I can't see inflation coming under control for a while and will be avoiding international travel.
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Gopher State
Footballguy
Hoping for a better showing today.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I have:
8, $25 put contracts that expire 7/15
100, $10 put contracts that expire 9/16
Unfortunately I have all the money I can afford to lose shorting DWAC or I would be buying even more. Probably the 1/20/23 which are around $0.80 just to be safe. Unfortunately @General Malaise has made it clear not to use margin or ask him for money.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Well so much for a supported rally. Looks like we’re back to looking for a bottom.
Cruise stocks are getting beat up today.up 10% before earnings. just like i called it
still have leaps though
Thoughts going forward?
On one hand, Covid is pretty much in the rear-view mirror and these ships can get back to almost full capacity. On the other hand, people don’t have much money to go cruising (expensive housing, fears of recession, etc) and most of these cruise stocks have a ton of debt.
FYI, if you own 100 shares of Carnival or NCL, you can get an on-board credit of $100 on a 7 day cruise (which is basically an automatic 10% return).
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Wow I hadn't looked in a while. Carnival is all the way down to its March 2020 covid lows.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Like all of them, but favorite on my watch list is meta, followed by Tesla, but great list.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
I really need to start tracking these stock split days better so I can avoid my mini strokes from when Yahoo alerts me a stock is down 90%.
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Todem
Footballguy
Blackstone is looking extremely attractive at these levels.
Fundamentally sound. Incredible dividend growth, excellent gross and net margins.
Yes......a long term buy at these levels IMO.
They deal in primarily private equity, real estate. But they are very good at what they do in that arena. One of the top players in Private Equity and Real Estate ventures.
5.7% yield and a forward PE of just under 16.
A nice alternative asset for your portfolio if you are looking for one.
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Well, they aren’t close to “back” yet and they’ve had 2+ years of little to no revenue which I assume had diluted/added debt. Their last quarterly revenue was $1.6B, which prorated to $6.4B. I’m sure it’s growing but their 2019 revenue was $20.8B. The stock price in 2019 was in the $40s so about on par revenue wise and I’d assume their fundamentals are worse. I wonder how much dilution has happened. Does the $10B market cap imply a higher share price than $8-9 based on the number of shares back in 2019?
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Very nice list and a similar list to what I have. I just don’t have Shopify, target, or Tesla on my list. Its not because I don’t like those names—I’m just satisfied with my existing exposure to them. In regards to positions that I’m looking to add to—I have apple, Costco, Disney, and Starbucks in addition to the other names you mentioned. I’m just not pulling the trigger on anything today. While I don’t think today is bad entry point—I’m just keeping my cash on the sidelines because I believe the markets have more time and room to go down.
Capella
Footballguy
Yea I am bringing my Shopify average down. Target and tesla are new buys for me (used to own tesla but traded in and out).
Gopher State
Footballguy
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
From Cramer’s newsletter this morning:
Morgan Stanley cuts price target on Carnival (CCL) to $7 per share from $13; unsustainable; sees bear case for the stock going to zero. Yep, $0. They had been positive, now weaker; revenue pressure; really bad fuel costs; higher full-year losses seen; occupancy lower; cost pressure.
beef
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut said:I have:
8, $25 put contracts that expire 7/15
100, $10 put contracts that expire 9/16
Unfortunately I have all the money I can afford to lose shorting DWAC or I would be buying even more. Probably the 1/20/23 which are around $0.80 just to be safe. Unfortunately @General Malaise has made it clear not to use margin or ask him for money.
The bolded have not only have not risen with the sell off but have gone down. I reason it's because people think it won't exist by then making them worthless?
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Love you GB but not too sure how I feel about more corporate socialism.
From a security and supply view, it would be great. Other than that....
beef
Footballguy
No worries, I f'n hate the idea of Corporate Socialism and would rather it not get passed. I'm just in it for the money and betting it does.
I’m actually for it. Security and job wise, it would be a good thing for us. I’d rather that than some of the other money we throw around. Unless we are going back to the stone ages, it’s important that we aren’t sole sourced on something so key to everything we have. I don’t want to be like Germany so dependent on Russia.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Now that I understand my brother. It's not like you are the one proposing 52 billion.... or are you?
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I agree with this but would rather the money to go to a US company. From what Ive read there are Chinese companies trying to take advantage of it which really kind of defeats the purpose.
Agreed there, but I don’t know about any Chinese companies. Taiwan (TSM) and Korean (Samsung) and US (Intel), I recall but nothing strictly Chinese. That said, TSM would be a huge blow if China did jump on Taiwan and basically divert everything to China only. That’s the biggest risk. Korea not so much, but still, would be best to have all our food, energy and semiconductors (among other things like raw materials) in our/ally hands not Russia, Middle East and China.
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KGB
Footballguy
Yep, I keep a separate 200 shares in another account I got in the $8s for cruises.
I love CCL in the $8's seems to have alot of support there
