Stock Thread (21 Viewers)

[culdeus]

Opec > wait!

 

[Gmail]

Was anyone really going to be surprised by oil going back over $100 a barrel before winter?

 

[Todem]

Really does feel like we’re going to have 2008 all over again. Probably because they never fixed anything after that, just printed a whole lot of funny money.

Yeah....no. Way off base here.

 

[Todem]

2 nice days in a row. Of course, it's early still.

It is. No idea where things are going, but it’s funny with all the short term bond discussion. I think I’m up 7% in two days. Bear markets suck but when they turn, the returns can be fast and furious. That’s why it’s usually bad if you bail late in the bear market. If you timed it early to get out, you can obviously do better, but jumping out at this point is dangerous because it’s so easy to miss the run back up.

We’ll see how this rally goes and need to pay attention to when the next Fed meeting will be. That’s probably the day when a rally could get pummeled again. Anyone know when the next Fed rate hike is?

November.

 

[Capella]

Well there we go. It was a fun two days.

 

[drunken slob]

There it is. Will be a long time before oil is cheap again.

 

[Desert_Power]

There it is. Will be a long time before oil is cheap again.

Not exactly a surprise that OPEC+ nations would react this way.

 

[The Big Donkey]

Nice intraday turnaround.

 

[Gmail]

Nice intraday turnaround.

6% swing for me. Was down 5, ended up 1.

 

[stbugs]

Nice intraday turnaround.

I’ll take that. After Monday and Tuesday, being down a fraction is not bad at all. It was way worse earlier.

 

[Capella]

That big turnaround seemed noteworthy to me. I figured we’d spiral down into a -4 or 5% day.

 

[drunken slob]

There it is. Will be a long time before oil is cheap again.

Not exactly a surprise that OPEC+ nations would react this way.

I know. Shame is, we could be selling the world even more, and not from the SPR.
Oh well, at least we’re not Germany.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

That big turnaround seemed noteworthy to me. I figured we’d spiral down into a -4 or 5% day.

Kind of the opposite of what we've been seeing lately. Usually it's a couple straight days of huge selloffs, followed up by a weak bounce on the 3rd morning that unwinds before the end of the day. First time in a while we've had the opposite of that with consecutive great days and the pullback afterwards was weak and unwound within the day.

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

Do we want a negative jobs report to appease the Fed so they take their foot off the gas on rate hikes?

 

[Schmeabs]

Do we want a negative jobs report to appease the Fed so they take their foot off the gas on rate hikes?

yes

 

[stbugs]

It’s really nice being basically flat for two days after the nice two day pop. Just being flat and not bleeding is a nice change. Don’t mind nothing days for a while TBH.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Was anyone really going to be surprised by oil going back over $100 a barrel before winter?

I would be but I sold all (the news) my UCO, Wednesday. I think it's more likely we settle around $75.

 

[humpback]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

 

[Caveman33]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31.21, a change of -0.09 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Right, this chart shows the p/e based on today's prices and the last 12 months of earnings as 18.9. That might be a bargain if we can expect the S&P to continue averaging around 25 in the future. But this current situation seems different, based on the little that I understand. I'll continue to wait for better deals and I might miss out.

 

[Schmeabs]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31.21, a change of -0.09 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Right, this chart shows the p/e based on today's prices and the last 12 months of earnings as 18.9. That might be a bargain if we can expect the S&P to continue averaging around 25 in the future. But this current situation seems different, based on the little that I understand. I'll continue to wait for better deals and I might miss out.

Those numbers are off as they would imply earnings at $198. 2021 earnings were $207 and this year is conservatively projected as $227 which puts current PE at 16.5.

 

[humpback]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31.21, a change of -0.09 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Right, this chart shows the p/e based on today's prices and the last 12 months of earnings as 18.9. That might be a bargain if we can expect the S&P to continue averaging around 25 in the future. But this current situation seems different, based on the little that I understand. I'll continue to wait for better deals and I might miss out.

Why would we expect a 25 PE in the future? That's significantly above historical averages.

 

[Caveman33]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31.21, a change of -0.09 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Right, this chart shows the p/e based on today's prices and the last 12 months of earnings as 18.9. That might be a bargain if we can expect the S&P to continue averaging around 25 in the future. But this current situation seems different, based on the little that I understand. I'll continue to wait for better deals and I might miss out.

Those numbers are off as they would imply earnings at $198. 2021 earnings were $207 and this year is conservatively projected as $227 which puts current PE at 16.5.

It's using the actual earnings from the previous 12 months. I remember someone pointing out the $207 and $198 discrepancy in the past and when I googled I found 2021 earnings listed at $198 and $207 depending upon what type of earnings. (I can't recall the difference and didn't fully understand it then). This website lists 2021 at $197.87. Do you know why these sources are using $198 as the earnings for 2021?

S&P 500 Earnings (Monthly) - United States - Historical Dat…

View monthly updates and historical trends for S&P 500 Earnings. from United States. Source: Robert Shiller. Track economic data with YCharts analytics.

ycharts.com

 

[Caveman33]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31.21, a change of -0.09 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Right, this chart shows the p/e based on today's prices and the last 12 months of earnings as 18.9. That might be a bargain if we can expect the S&P to continue averaging around 25 in the future. But this current situation seems different, based on the little that I understand. I'll continue to wait for better deals and I might miss out.

Why would we expect a 25 PE in the future? That's significantly above historical averages.

Just looking at the chart, the historical average appears to be trending up. Since 1990, the average P/E looks to be above 20. I think that once we get through this current situation (it could take months or years), interest rates will be pushed back down and P/E will continue to trend up. The stock market will continue to be the preferred investment vehicle. There may be some things in the future that change this trend but I figure that is at least a few decades away.

I'm not an informed investor, though. Just a gambler. It's so easy, even a caveman can do it!

 

[humpback]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31.21, a change of -0.09 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Right, this chart shows the p/e based on today's prices and the last 12 months of earnings as 18.9. That might be a bargain if we can expect the S&P to continue averaging around 25 in the future. But this current situation seems different, based on the little that I understand. I'll continue to wait for better deals and I might miss out.

Those numbers are off as they would imply earnings at $198. 2021 earnings were $207 and this year is conservatively projected as $227 which puts current PE at 16.5.

They give you their sources, click on the links. You're using a different time frame than they are.

And I certainly wouldn't characterize $227 as a "conservative" estimate. It's been steadily dropping (it's actually down around $224 now) and many expect the trend to continue.

 

[Caveman33]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31.21, a change of -0.09 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Right, this chart shows the p/e based on today's prices and the last 12 months of earnings as 18.9. That might be a bargain if we can expect the S&P to continue averaging around 25 in the future. But this current situation seems different, based on the little that I understand. I'll continue to wait for better deals and I might miss out.

Those numbers are off as they would imply earnings at $198. 2021 earnings were $207 and this year is conservatively projected as $227 which puts current PE at 16.5.

They give you their sources, click on the links. You're using a different time frame than they are.

And I certainly wouldn't characterize $227 as a "conservative" estimate. It's been steadily dropping (it's actually down around $224 now) and many expect the trend to continue.

I'm looking at the 5 year earnings chart and 2019 was $139 and 2020 was $94 so 2021 was about 40% higher than 2019. Is such a huge increase explained by make-up from 2020 and inflation? Inflation should continue to boost 2022 and 2023 earnings, right? Using a P/E of 15, I figure the S&P will bottom between 3000-3300 and since I'm a pessimist, I'll guess 2987.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31.21, a change of -0.09 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Right, this chart shows the p/e based on today's prices and the last 12 months of earnings as 18.9. That might be a bargain if we can expect the S&P to continue averaging around 25 in the future. But this current situation seems different, based on the little that I understand. I'll continue to wait for better deals and I might miss out.

I apologize, I misheard last week.

Still, I think we're oversold. Absolute bottom? Probably not. I stand by my original assertion. There's too much panic and no shortage of people predicting doomsday. JMHO

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

I'm not an informed investor, though. Just a gambler. It's so easy, even a caveman can do it!

Nice

 

[Schmeabs]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31.21, a change of -0.09 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Right, this chart shows the p/e based on today's prices and the last 12 months of earnings as 18.9. That might be a bargain if we can expect the S&P to continue averaging around 25 in the future. But this current situation seems different, based on the little that I understand. I'll continue to wait for better deals and I might miss out.

Those numbers are off as they would imply earnings at $198. 2021 earnings were $207 and this year is conservatively projected as $227 which puts current PE at 16.5.

They give you their sources, click on the links. You're using a different time frame than they are.

And I certainly wouldn't characterize $227 as a "conservative" estimate. It's been steadily dropping (it's actually down around $224 now) and many expect the trend to continue.

2022 earnings should be just fine. 2023 earnings will be a challenge to grow the anticipated 4% if we see a recession.

 

[McBokonon]

Too many people with jobs.

 

[Gmail]

Too many people with jobs.

Just crazy cuz no one wants to work.

 

[Capella]

it almost was a good week!

 

[Gmail]

Market is stuck in round-a-bout. We just saw these figures.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Lame.

 

[Gmail]

AMD lowers their revenue guidance by $1.1B (16.5%). Not good. Stock down 10% today because of the "what have you done for me lately" mentality we're in.
AMD still managing a 29% year-on-year growth. I like that and I can add today at a 10% discount? OK, thanks.

 

[drunken slob]

Who else is sick of hearing about a, “Fed pivot?”

 

[fruity pebbles]

Who else is sick of hearing about a, “Fed pivot?”

It's the new transitory inflation

 

[Gmail]

Guess it depends on a hard or soft pivot. We going major rager out one hole and into the other, or soft, sensual adjustment?

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Was anyone really going to be surprised by oil going back over $100 a barrel before winter?

I would be but I sold all (the news) my UCO, Wednesday. I think it's more likely we settle around $75.

NAILED IT

I still believe in a few months it will settle in the $75 range.

 

[humpback]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31.21, a change of -0.09 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Right, this chart shows the p/e based on today's prices and the last 12 months of earnings as 18.9. That might be a bargain if we can expect the S&P to continue averaging around 25 in the future. But this current situation seems different, based on the little that I understand. I'll continue to wait for better deals and I might miss out.

Why would we expect a 25 PE in the future? That's significantly above historical averages.

Just looking at the chart, the historical average appears to be trending up. Since 1990, the average P/E looks to be above 20. I think that once we get through this current situation (it could take months or years), interest rates will be pushed back down and P/E will continue to trend up. The stock market will continue to be the preferred investment vehicle. There may be some things in the future that change this trend but I figure that is at least a few decades away.

I'm not an informed investor, though. Just a gambler. It's so easy, even a caveman can do it!

I don't want to get too far into the weeds here, but I'd call that more "extremely volatile" than I would a well defined uptrend. Yes, it's higher now than it was in 1990, but it's been all over the place and those huge spikes are due to the denominator collapsing during some of the biggest shocks we're ever experienced. Also, interest rates have been in a major downtrend since then, and lower rates support higher P/E's. So yes, we've had higher P/E's recently than we have historically, but even those averaged below 25, and it was during the most accommodative monetary policies we've ever seen (which again, supports higher P/E's). It's also a core reason why some have been saying that the market was long overdue for a pretty big sell off.

So, if we somehow completely reverse and go back to the most accommodative policies we're ever had, perhaps we can temporarily support trailing P/E's in the low 20's again, but that seems extremely unlikely to happen. Even if it did it wouldn't be sustainable, it will eventually lead right back to what we're dealing with now. Sustained P/E's of 25 for the S&P just aren't a thing.

 

[humpback]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31.21, a change of -0.09 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Right, this chart shows the p/e based on today's prices and the last 12 months of earnings as 18.9. That might be a bargain if we can expect the S&P to continue averaging around 25 in the future. But this current situation seems different, based on the little that I understand. I'll continue to wait for better deals and I might miss out.

Those numbers are off as they would imply earnings at $198. 2021 earnings were $207 and this year is conservatively projected as $227 which puts current PE at 16.5.

They give you their sources, click on the links. You're using a different time frame than they are.

And I certainly wouldn't characterize $227 as a "conservative" estimate. It's been steadily dropping (it's actually down around $224 now) and many expect the trend to continue.

2022 earnings should be just fine. 2023 earnings will be a challenge to grow the anticipated 4% if we see a recession.

We'll find out eventually, but I was just commenting on the "conservative" part. $227 is above the current estimates, which have been steadily declining and typically will continue to drop so it seems much more likely to come in below that number than above. Yardeni is at $215 fwiw.

 

[Schmeabs]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31.21, a change of -0.09 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Right, this chart shows the p/e based on today's prices and the last 12 months of earnings as 18.9. That might be a bargain if we can expect the S&P to continue averaging around 25 in the future. But this current situation seems different, based on the little that I understand. I'll continue to wait for better deals and I might miss out.

Those numbers are off as they would imply earnings at $198. 2021 earnings were $207 and this year is conservatively projected as $227 which puts current PE at 16.5.

They give you their sources, click on the links. You're using a different time frame than they are.

And I certainly wouldn't characterize $227 as a "conservative" estimate. It's been steadily dropping (it's actually down around $224 now) and many expect the trend to continue.

2022 earnings should be just fine. 2023 earnings will be a challenge to grow the anticipated 4% if we see a recession.

We'll find out eventually, but I was just commenting on the "conservative" part. $227 is above the current estimates, which have been steadily declining and typically will continue to drop so it seems much more likely to come in below that number than above. Yardeni is at $215 fwiw.

I feel pretty strongly in will come in above $215 this year. $227-$232 is my guess. I agree that next years projections need to come down a touch.

 

[Sand]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31.21, a change of -0.09 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Right, this chart shows the p/e based on today's prices and the last 12 months of earnings as 18.9. That might be a bargain if we can expect the S&P to continue averaging around 25 in the future. But this current situation seems different, based on the little that I understand. I'll continue to wait for better deals and I might miss out.

Those numbers are off as they would imply earnings at $198. 2021 earnings were $207 and this year is conservatively projected as $227 which puts current PE at 16.5.

It's using the actual earnings from the previous 12 months. I remember someone pointing out the $207 and $198 discrepancy in the past and when I googled I found 2021 earnings listed at $198 and $207 depending upon what type of earnings. (I can't recall the difference and didn't fully understand it then). This website lists 2021 at $197.87. Do you know why these sources are using $198 as the earnings for 2021?

S&P 500 Earnings (Monthly) - United States - Historical Dat…

View monthly updates and historical trends for S&P 500 Earnings. from United States. Source: Robert Shiller. Track economic data with YCharts analytics.

ycharts.com

That's a pretty decent ratio.

 

[Sand]

Been out of pocket all week. Looks like the market is about the same as it started. Nice sanguine week - didn't miss anything, I guess.

 

[Gmail]

Didn't trim this week when SOXL rallied and now have even more. If I don't trim on the next rally I might have to join one of those hoarders help groups.

 

[pecorino]

AMD lowers their revenue guidance by $1.1B (16.5%). Not good. Stock down 10% today because of the "what have you done for me lately" mentality we're in.
AMD still managing a 29% year-on-year growth. I like that and I can add today at a 10% discount? OK, thanks.

Bought two long term at-the-money AMD calls when it hit $60. We're supposed to buy low, right?

 

[humpback]

Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.

Average PE of the S&P has dropped from about 21 to about 15. That's significant.

Only if you believe the E estimates will be met.

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31.21, a change of -0.09 from previous market close.

www.multpl.com

Right, this chart shows the p/e based on today's prices and the last 12 months of earnings as 18.9. That might be a bargain if we can expect the S&P to continue averaging around 25 in the future. But this current situation seems different, based on the little that I understand. I'll continue to wait for better deals and I might miss out.

Those numbers are off as they would imply earnings at $198. 2021 earnings were $207 and this year is conservatively projected as $227 which puts current PE at 16.5.

They give you their sources, click on the links. You're using a different time frame than they are.

And I certainly wouldn't characterize $227 as a "conservative" estimate. It's been steadily dropping (it's actually down around $224 now) and many expect the trend to continue.

2022 earnings should be just fine. 2023 earnings will be a challenge to grow the anticipated 4% if we see a recession.

We'll find out eventually, but I was just commenting on the "conservative" part. $227 is above the current estimates, which have been steadily declining and typically will continue to drop so it seems much more likely to come in below that number than above. Yardeni is at $215 fwiw.

I feel pretty strongly in will come in above $215 this year. $227-$232 is my guess. I agree that next years projections need to come down a touch.

Not sure why you'd feel so strongly but let's hope you're right. Of course, if it's a matter of just holding on until a big drop in estimates next year it won't really matter.

I think more cuts to estimates are on the horizon, and hopefully that can be the final shoe to drop before we can stabilize some.

 

[Shula-holic]

Been passive in the market lately, busy season for my business. Doesn't look like I missed much. About time to send my daughters' college plan funding for the year it appears.

 

[KGB]

Purchased CCL options for 7/23

 

[drunken slob]

Another drunken rant

Please for the love of all that's good, Fed Board members, stop talking. Please, just stop talking. Take your unearned $400K/year salary and be quiet. None of you are helpful.

That's all.