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Stock Thread (21 Viewers)

Watching Bloomberg right now. One of the sidebar topics is how Crude is going to slow down because of Fed uncertainty. :lmao:

Physics. That's it. Physics.
Eventually the dummies will figure it out, maybe.
:banned:
 
At 2000 shares of SOXL now. Most I've had yet. Have a feeling I'll be at 2500 before the end of the month. :clyde:

errr 2160... 2240... might hit 2500 today...
 
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Another drunken rant :rant:

Please for the love of all that's good, Fed Board members, stop talking. Please, just stop talking. Take your unearned $400K/year salary and be quiet. None of you are helpful.

That's all.
:banned:
Isn't this their goal? Scare the F out of everyone and make them sell. Keep driving the fear dagger in their heart until they cash it all out. Whatever it takes to make them broke so they stop spending money.
 
Another drunken rant :rant:

Please for the love of all that's good, Fed Board members, stop talking. Please, just stop talking. Take your unearned $400K/year salary and be quiet. None of you are helpful.

That's all.
:banned:
Isn't this their goal? Scare the F out of everyone and make them sell. Keep driving the fear dagger in their heart until they cash it all out. Whatever it takes to make them broke so they stop spending money.
Why are they targeting Ford, though? Kinda specific and mean, imo.
 
Another drunken rant :rant:

Please for the love of all that's good, Fed Board members, stop talking. Please, just stop talking. Take your unearned $400K/year salary and be quiet. None of you are helpful.

That's all.
:banned:
Isn't this their goal? Scare the F out of everyone and make them sell. Keep driving the fear dagger in their heart until they cash it all out. Whatever it takes to make them broke so they stop spending money.
I don’t know.
If that’s the goal, just say so. I can respect honesty. What these people are doing is just BSing the hell out of us.
 
Semi sector down 50-60%. Feels like the news is negative upon negative every day. Feels like a buying opportunity soon as the sector runs in cycles.
 
Thoughts on this article from all the smart investors in this thread?


Historic Shiller P/E ratio of 22 = bottom?

What would a Shiller P/E ratio of 22 look like today? Considering the Shiller P/E ratio ended Oct. 5, 2022, at 28.32, an additional 22.32% downside would be necessary in the S&P 500 to bring it to a level where support has been found during prior bear markets. This would entail the S&P 500 dropping by 844.43 points to 2,938.85. All told, this would represent a peak-to-trough bear market decline of 39%.
 
Thoughts on this article from all the smart investors in this thread?


Historic Shiller P/E ratio of 22 = bottom?

What would a Shiller P/E ratio of 22 look like today? Considering the Shiller P/E ratio ended Oct. 5, 2022, at 28.32, an additional 22.32% downside would be necessary in the S&P 500 to bring it to a level where support has been found during prior bear markets. This would entail the S&P 500 dropping by 844.43 points to 2,938.85. All told, this would represent a peak-to-trough bear market decline of 39%.
Sounds about right to me. I still think we bottom between 3000-3200. Doesn’t mean I’m not buying the big drops on the way down.
 
Thoughts on this article from all the smart investors in this thread?


Historic Shiller P/E ratio of 22 = bottom?

What would a Shiller P/E ratio of 22 look like today? Considering the Shiller P/E ratio ended Oct. 5, 2022, at 28.32, an additional 22.32% downside would be necessary in the S&P 500 to bring it to a level where support has been found during prior bear markets. This would entail the S&P 500 dropping by 844.43 points to 2,938.85. All told, this would represent a peak-to-trough bear market decline of 39%.
The Schiller PE ratio uses earnings going back 10 years. It is useless. Earnings 10 years ago are not relevant. It is the worst indicator IMO.
 
At 2000 shares of SOXL now. Most I've had yet. Have a feeling I'll be at 2500 before the end of the month. :clyde:

errr 2160... 2240... might hit 2500 today...
Having been involved in a number of reverse splits this year, I have a question.
At what point does SOXL do a reverse of their own? This thing was $71.07 on January 4th and closed at $8.28 today.
I only ask because of the recent resets I've experienced with my BrokeAzzed-Suisse ETN's.
Thanks
 
At 2000 shares of SOXL now. Most I've had yet. Have a feeling I'll be at 2500 before the end of the month. :clyde:

errr 2160... 2240... might hit 2500 today...
Having been involved in a number of reverse splits this year, I have a question.
At what point does SOXL do a reverse of their own? This thing was $71.07 on January 4th and closed at $8.28 today.
I only ask because of the recent resets I've experienced with my BrokeAzzed-Suisse ETN's.
Thanks
I was actually just thinking about this and it's likely to happen if stays below $10 for a while. Direxion did a 1:10 with DRIP and SOXS in February. NRGU did a reverse split two years ago while it was below $10/sh (think I was buying in the $3's).

7.30's now. Damn, this is fugly.
 
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Who is selling at these levels? I really don't understand how the markets can be down 1% every day like clockwork. I assume it's got to be institutional and/or algorithmic based selling. Lord knows that all the retail investors hear the same thing over and over--stay in the market, the biggest mistake you can make is to sell in a down market, etc. I'm a holder like many of you. But with these constant drops, someone is selling. I've also been figuring that the really big money is leveraging derivative plays with options action at record volume. We're going to hear about hedge funds making boatloads of money because of the drop this year. The cynic in me says they're related. You get the algos to keep pushing the momentum down, and the big boys get to reap the benefits twice, by shorting and also by cleaning up with puts. I've always assumed the whole market is rigged and feel more certain about it this year.
 
It's certainly rigged against the poorer people who can't ride out the storms. Credit cards maxed, bills piling up. Cashing out that 401k becomes an only option. I'll never underestimate what fear can do to some of these retailer investors or 401k only investors.

VIX has spent a lot more time above 32.50 than it has below 20 the past 6 months. Takes a lot of puts to do that. I do kind of wonder what impact that has and probably more than the 401k sellers. Anyone have data on that?
 
At 2000 shares of SOXL now. Most I've had yet. Have a feeling I'll be at 2500 before the end of the month. :clyde:

errr 2160... 2240... might hit 2500 today...
Having been involved in a number of reverse splits this year, I have a question.
At what point does SOXL do a reverse of their own? This thing was $71.07 on January 4th and closed at $8.28 today.
I only ask because of the recent resets I've experienced with my BrokeAzzed-Suisse ETN's.
Thanks
I was actually just thinking about this and it's likely to happen if stays below $10 for a while. Direxion did a 1:10 with DRIP and SOXS in February. NRGU did a reverse split two years ago while it was below $10/sh (think I was buying in the $3's).

7.30's now. Damn, this is fugly.
Well, at least you have enough shares that the Corporate Action fees are less of a drag on your actual basis.
Good luck :hifive:
 
CPI hot again, shocker
Knew this was coming. Everything in September seemed more expensive than it did in August.

We're going to see some real ugly now. I should have been cutting my play money plays instead of buying. At least I shouldn't have to pay any taxes this year, lol.
 
Cut some losses and dumped it all on UVXY. Like roulette green 0, baby!

:lol: oops... that's didn't work, but overall i'm green right now so I'll take it.
 
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What are your guys thoughts on someone relatively young dumping money into TQQQ? Basically a 3X on the NASDAQ. It seems like now is the time for a potential multibagger without the risk of owning a single company. Thoughts?
 
What are your guys thoughts on someone relatively young dumping money into TQQQ? Basically a 3X on the NASDAQ. It seems like now is the time for a potential multibagger without the risk of owning a single company. Thoughts?
I think I'm gonna dump my money into beer.
 
What are your guys thoughts on someone relatively young dumping money into TQQQ? Basically a 3X on the NASDAQ. It seems like now is the time for a potential multibagger without the risk of owning a single company. Thoughts?
:shrug:I've been thinking this for months now and the Daq keeps saying "FU, nope, we can go lower!"

My average is quite a bit higher than what it's at now, so sure, great buying time compared to that.
 
What are your guys thoughts on someone relatively young dumping money into TQQQ? Basically a 3X on the NASDAQ. It seems like now is the time for a potential multibagger without the risk of owning a single company. Thoughts?
Just know that is a short-term trading vehicle and not really an "investment." If this is a young person looking to start scaling into a long term investment, then just the normal QQQ's would be better.
 
What are your guys thoughts on someone relatively young dumping money into TQQQ? Basically a 3X on the NASDAQ. It seems like now is the time for a potential multibagger without the risk of owning a single company. Thoughts?
Just know that is a short-term trading vehicle and not really an "investment." If this is a young person looking to start scaling into a long term investment, then just the normal QQQ's would be better.
Well said. :hifive:
 
CPI horrible and I'm down almost 15%, an now up 8%. Can someone smarter than me - and that's everyone of you! - please explain it?

I didn't think the likeliness of the Fed adding another 1.50 hike before year's end would help, but is this the "just jack it up and get it over with" that WS wanted?
 
CPI horrible and I'm down almost 15%, an now up 8%. Can someone smarter than me - and that's everyone of you! - please explain it?

I didn't think the likeliness of the Fed adding another 1.50 hike before year's end would help, but is this the "just jack it up and get it over with" that WS wanted?
No way of knowing the reason, but it's definitely a good sign that it's shrugging off bad news (for now, at least).
 
CPI horrible and I'm down almost 15%, an now up 8%. Can someone smarter than me - and that's everyone of you! - please explain it?

I didn't think the likeliness of the Fed adding another 1.50 hike before year's end would help, but is this the "just jack it up and get it over with" that WS wanted?
I think when the market goes down another 10-15% after the last 0.1% surprise, maybe we’ve gotten to a plateau of some sort where everyone knows the Fed is raising rates a lot. I don’t think anyone was really forecasting some rosy CPI where the Fed would stop.

I was green yesterday but Amazon is holding me back from enjoying today more.
 
CPI horrible and I'm down almost 15%, an now up 8%. Can someone smarter than me - and that's everyone of you! - please explain it?

I didn't think the likeliness of the Fed adding another 1.50 hike before year's end would help, but is this the "just jack it up and get it over with" that WS wanted?
No way of knowing the reason, but it's definitely a good sign that it's shrugging off bad news (for now, at least).
Shrugging off may not be the best words. We are down a ton from the last report a month ago which was about the same miss. I don’t think anyone was expecting the Fed to suddenly say .25 instead of 0.75. Shrugging off to me would be during a rally higher. This seems more of a yeah, we already know the Fed’s not taking their foot off the pedal. The recession, which feels already underway, will knock down prices. At some point in the recession stocks will start back up in anticipation of the recession ending.
 
CPI numbers are going to continue to be bad. The shelter component was understating housing inflation last year and is overstating it now. Whether the Fed looks through that and pays more attention to the deterioration in leading indicators is anyone's guess.

Another good day to put more cash into T-Bills IMO.
 
CPI horrible and I'm down almost 15%, an now up 8%. Can someone smarter than me - and that's everyone of you! - please explain it?

I didn't think the likeliness of the Fed adding another 1.50 hike before year's end would help, but is this the "just jack it up and get it over with" that WS wanted?
No way of knowing the reason, but it's definitely a good sign that it's shrugging off bad news (for now, at least).
Shrugging off may not be the best words. We are down a ton from the last report a month ago which was about the same miss. I don’t think anyone was expecting the Fed to suddenly say .25 instead of 0.75. Shrugging off to me would be during a rally higher. This seems more of a yeah, we already know the Fed’s not taking their foot off the pedal. The recession, which feels already underway, will knock down prices. At some point in the recession stocks will start back up in anticipation of the recession ending.
The direction of the market doesn't matter, it's simply how it reacts to the current news. The CPI report was worse than expected, the probability of 75 bps at the next meeting went from very likely to a lock, and the December meeting went from 50 to likely 75 bps- none of that is "good" here. When the market goes up on that clearly bad news, I think "shrugging it off" fits just fine.
 

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