JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
TGT, you are breaking my heart a second time this year.
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Stock Thread (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Todem
Footballguy
Stay long and buy more if you can.
Todem
Footballguy
Some food for thought.
Since 1950 when the S&P has lost 25% or more:
So this year it was down 25.3% from 1/3/22 - 9/30/22
The average annual return of the S&P 500 since 1950 when this occurs looking forward:
1 year - 46.4%
3 year - 65.1%
5 year - 111.1%
10 year - 194.6%
“Time in” not “timing” is the key.
Since 1950 when the S&P has lost 25% or more:
So this year it was down 25.3% from 1/3/22 - 9/30/22
The average annual return of the S&P 500 since 1950 when this occurs looking forward:
1 year - 46.4%
3 year - 65.1%
5 year - 111.1%
10 year - 194.6%
“Time in” not “timing” is the key.
Last edited:
dancingbones
Footballguy
Thanks to all for the posts here - new to investing & learning much from the FBG community 
Opened a small position in SI today - seemed like a good time to dip my toe there.
Opened a small position in SI today - seemed like a good time to dip my toe there.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I like the company. Think it is a well-run straddle of banking and crypto. However, one of its largest customers has just been exposed to be a ponzi scheme. Hard to know whether to double down or cut bait on this one.
Todem
Footballguy
Run for the hills. That house of cards is falling like dominos. The tentacles of the FTX meltdown is just unfolding and more and more repercussions are coming down the pike. The confidence has been destroyed.
Sand
Footballguy
...and I retire.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Completely forgot that GME partnered with FTX because of course they did.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
They basically got into anything that was the flavor of the minute and might spike their share price. I’m surprised that turd is still as high as it is.
Caveman33
Footballguy
They could very well be fine in the long run but I am banking on short term puts. It seems like big ER drops are followed by quick rallies and then a return to the original drop point.
Bogart
Footballguy
Well, it did the opposite of spike. So that's awesome.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I think the allure and appeal of TFG is dead.
beef
Footballguy
Thought I saw something that they lost another board member, still don't have the votes to push the deadline to Sept 2023 either???
Bogart
Footballguy
Yep. And yep. True on both of those things. They have a meeting on the 22nd, and I think a due date for the extension vote of Dec 3rd. Plus Patrick Orlando, who is running the SPAC has had two other SPACs fail, one just last month. This thing should be at zero. I only invested what a nice night at the strip club would cost, so I'm enjoying the show either way it goes.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I guess my only question is where did you find a brokerage that's willing to accept $10k in one dollar bills?
Amazing they didn’t take a hit but I think people understand that partnership equals we sell FTX gift cards in our stores. Reminds me of the Microsoft “partnership” which was we bought some software from Microsoft.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Wow. Chapek definitely made some blunders and the last earnings report spooked everyone
Bogart
Footballguy
Well, they somehow got the votes for an extension for the merger until next September. Probably boosts the price for a couple of days, but all of the garbage surrounding TFG, and the fact that the Truth Social platform still isn't great and not a lot of people use should keep the price down.
They have kicked the can down the street, but TFG can crush it if he goes back to Twitter.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Nice report and bump for DE today.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Volume incredibly light today, no surprise. Dollar getting hit. Gold seems to want to move higher. Cooling labor market.
Gentle reminder that Friday is a half day. Market's close 1pm ET.
Happy Thanksgiving - Buckle up for a wild finish to '22.
Gentle reminder that Friday is a half day. Market's close 1pm ET.
Happy Thanksgiving - Buckle up for a wild finish to '22.
Todem
Footballguy
An outstanding company.
Alien Fantasy
Footballguy
Gamestop reports earnings on December 7th after the market closes.
Be ready to be wowed. They are going to smash expectations.
I remain all in and couldn't be happier holding this stock.
Be ready to be wowed. They are going to smash expectations.
I remain all in and couldn't be happier holding this stock.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
What is the stock buy today?
AMZN
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Dude couldn't have waited one more day for all my auto contributions to go in for the month?
Sand
Footballguy
Lol. My company matches 50% up to a max amount so my matching is done in like March so I always have my contributions max before the end of the year. My last contribution went in yesterday! Great timing for that $41.15 huge *** contribution. That’s like an extra $1 since it went in yesterday. My wife’s is always a couple days after the end of the month since she gets paid monthly so I’m winning on all sides.
Wouldn’t you love to see those folks portfolios over the past year? When did they sell and when did they buy because they sure seemed to time there announcements well to what they wanted the market to do.Powell is great for the markets! Haven't I been saying this for months!
Honestly, from what I’ve seen, there’s a lot of job losses still coming. I think maybe they realize that if they don’t moderate a little that they could overshoot.
Todem
Footballguy
Enjoy the rally as I keep saying……we will have some pain again first half of next year but fixed income is gonna outperform stocks next year. So think about some tactical rebalancing year end as I have been saying. Use this rally (it’s not over btw) to make some decisions on profits as well as losers that are not as bad as they were two months ago and redeploy into fixed income for 2023 and also high dividend paying stocks.Wouldn’t you love to see those folks portfolios over the past year? When did they sell and when did they buy because they sure seemed to time there announcements well to what they wanted the market to do.Powell is great for the markets! Haven't I been saying this for months!
Honestly, from what I’ve seen, there’s a lot of job losses still coming. I think maybe they realize that if they don’t moderate a little that they could overshoot.
By year end 2023 I expect the next cyclical bull market to begin and early 2024 the reduction of the target fed funds rate to a lower level (not zero) will ignite a massive rally and bull market.
Good luck everyone!
Sand
Footballguy
I assume you're talking ETFs or funds and not direct bonds to catch the upswing in rates moderating? There are some nice high quality corporates out there, but they're hold until called or mature items.Enjoy the rally as I keep saying……we will have some pain again first half of next year but fixed income is gonna outperform stocks next year. So think about some tactical rebalancing year end as I have been saying. Use this rally (it’s not over btw) to make some decisions on profits as well as losers that are not as bad as they were two months ago and redeploy into fixed income for 2023 and also high dividend paying stocks.Wouldn’t you love to see those folks portfolios over the past year? When did they sell and when did they buy because they sure seemed to time there announcements well to what they wanted the market to do.Powell is great for the markets! Haven't I been saying this for months!
Honestly, from what I’ve seen, there’s a lot of job losses still coming. I think maybe they realize that if they don’t moderate a little that they could overshoot.
By year end 2023 I expect the next cyclical bull market to begin and early 2024 the reduction of the target fed funds rate to a lower level (not zero) will ignite a massive rally and bull market.
Good luck everyone!
Todem
Footballguy
Talking both. For large accounts that can build bond ladders and barbells when rates fall again those bonds will go up in price and you could have some nice gains that you may want to take on some of those positions.I assume you're talking ETFs or funds and not direct bonds to catch the upswing in rates moderating? There are some nice high quality corporates out there, but they're hold until called or mature items.Enjoy the rally as I keep saying……we will have some pain again first half of next year but fixed income is gonna outperform stocks next year. So think about some tactical rebalancing year end as I have been saying. Use this rally (it’s not over btw) to make some decisions on profits as well as losers that are not as bad as they were two months ago and redeploy into fixed income for 2023 and also high dividend paying stocks.Wouldn’t you love to see those folks portfolios over the past year? When did they sell and when did they buy because they sure seemed to time there announcements well to what they wanted the market to do.Powell is great for the markets! Haven't I been saying this for months!
Honestly, from what I’ve seen, there’s a lot of job losses still coming. I think maybe they realize that if they don’t moderate a little that they could overshoot.
By year end 2023 I expect the next cyclical bull market to begin and early 2024 the reduction of the target fed funds rate to a lower level (not zero) will ignite a massive rally and bull market.
Good luck everyone!
As far as funds and ETF’s they have been beaten down as bad as S&P type stock funds.
But the bigger longer term picture is this is a chance to diversify your portfolio more and add more high quality, some beaten down value names and add fixed income if you want less overall volatility for the long haul.
KGB
Footballguy
What do you mean "fixed income"? cash?Talking both. For large accounts that can build bond ladders and barbells when rates fall again those bonds will go up in price and you could have some nice gains that you may want to take on some of those positions.I assume you're talking ETFs or funds and not direct bonds to catch the upswing in rates moderating? There are some nice high quality corporates out there, but they're hold until called or mature items.Enjoy the rally as I keep saying……we will have some pain again first half of next year but fixed income is gonna outperform stocks next year. So think about some tactical rebalancing year end as I have been saying. Use this rally (it’s not over btw) to make some decisions on profits as well as losers that are not as bad as they were two months ago and redeploy into fixed income for 2023 and also high dividend paying stocks.Wouldn’t you love to see those folks portfolios over the past year? When did they sell and when did they buy because they sure seemed to time there announcements well to what they wanted the market to do.Powell is great for the markets! Haven't I been saying this for months!
Honestly, from what I’ve seen, there’s a lot of job losses still coming. I think maybe they realize that if they don’t moderate a little that they could overshoot.
By year end 2023 I expect the next cyclical bull market to begin and early 2024 the reduction of the target fed funds rate to a lower level (not zero) will ignite a massive rally and bull market.
Good luck everyone!
As far as funds and ETF’s they have been beaten down as bad as S&P type stock funds.
But the bigger longer term picture is this is a chance to diversify your portfolio more and add more high quality, some beaten down value names and add fixed income if you want less overall volatility for the long haul.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
CDs, actual bonds.What do you mean "fixed income"? cash?Talking both. For large accounts that can build bond ladders and barbells when rates fall again those bonds will go up in price and you could have some nice gains that you may want to take on some of those positions.I assume you're talking ETFs or funds and not direct bonds to catch the upswing in rates moderating? There are some nice high quality corporates out there, but they're hold until called or mature items.Enjoy the rally as I keep saying……we will have some pain again first half of next year but fixed income is gonna outperform stocks next year. So think about some tactical rebalancing year end as I have been saying. Use this rally (it’s not over btw) to make some decisions on profits as well as losers that are not as bad as they were two months ago and redeploy into fixed income for 2023 and also high dividend paying stocks.Wouldn’t you love to see those folks portfolios over the past year? When did they sell and when did they buy because they sure seemed to time there announcements well to what they wanted the market to do.Powell is great for the markets! Haven't I been saying this for months!
Honestly, from what I’ve seen, there’s a lot of job losses still coming. I think maybe they realize that if they don’t moderate a little that they could overshoot.
By year end 2023 I expect the next cyclical bull market to begin and early 2024 the reduction of the target fed funds rate to a lower level (not zero) will ignite a massive rally and bull market.
Good luck everyone!
As far as funds and ETF’s they have been beaten down as bad as S&P type stock funds.
But the bigger longer term picture is this is a chance to diversify your portfolio more and add more high quality, some beaten down value names and add fixed income if you want less overall volatility for the long haul.
DevilDog919
Footballguy
Newer to investing and have followed advice in here along with Motley Fool Stock Advisor. Not very educated on ETFs and bonds. Which ETF or bonds should I be looking to purchase, and why are they a better option than to continue investing in stocks right now?
Todem
Footballguy
I am not saying they are better. It is a different asset class. Traditionally it is also less volatile.
The key to long term investing is diversification. Not putting all your eggs in one basket. Now depending on your age, time horizon and risk tolerance that will help determine what would be the most appropriate allocation for you.
Like stocks you should also be diversified in bonds when/if you invest in them.
There are a lot of different factors woth bonds:
Credit quality
Duration
What type of bonds
Geographical location of the bonds
Tax free
Taxable
In an tax deferred account you would never purchase Municipal bonds.
If you are in a high tax bracket you should be looking at mostly municipal bonds:
Ultra short
Short
Intermediate
Long duration
High yield
When it comes to taxable bonds:
Government
Corporate
Ultra short
Short
Intermediate
Long duration
High yield
Floating rate
Convertibles
International
Domestic
If you want to index the taxable bond market look for a Barclays Agg ETF.
I don’t think it’s a great option.
If you are do it yourself person look at some vanguard etf’s or mutual funds that are total bond index funds (they also have a total stock market
Fund too with 5000 positions).
It can get daunting trying to build out your own diversified portfolio. But it is worth the effort. It is very difficult to predict what sectors in both stocks and bonds will perform best Year to Year. So instead of chasing have a balanced diversified approach. Most of the time it works and works effectively. But you will get outlier years like 2008 and 2022 where nothing really works and both bonds and stocks go down.
It’s the classic 50/50 or 60/40 portfolio (stocks to bonds).
Sand
Footballguy
They're a different asset class, so the choice to buy them is dictated by your portfolio plan. But among the bond ETF world I own three US Treasury ones - IEF (10 year treasury), GVI (5 year), and BIL (ultra short).
Todem
Footballguy
Yeah…..it’s really hilarious.“Stock futures add to losses after excellent job report”
Right now (and this won’t last) the market mentality is like a heroin addict that has gone cold turkey off the smack (near zero interest rates)
We have a strong economy. Yes weakness will come….but this whole idea
or mentality that the markets can’t function in a market neutral interest rate environment is preposterous.
Don’t let this deter your long term goals. But I agree it’s amusing to watch these gyrations where good news is now bad news.
Another nice tell we already hit a short term bottom back in September.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Another tragic day
ericttspikes
Footballguy
I miss the good ole days when unemployment was 15% and the stocks of business who had no customers would shoot up 20% daily.
General Malaise
Footballguy
We'll finish green today. Happy Friday all y'all.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
If low unemployment is considered bad for the market, maybe unfettered capitalism doesn’t really work afterall?
Oh come on.
Again, this isn't rocket surgery. Monetary policy has a pretty big impact on the economy and thus the markets, that's why we're in an inverse position for now- a strong job report means it's more likely the fed stays tighter for longer, etc. That doesn't mean businesses can't do well with tighter policies but the vast majority won't do as well as they would with lower rates, etc. Overall the post-report move was very muted and didn't last long at all so your "hot take" isn't so hot.
Of course, many complain when the market goes down on "good" news but the opposite also occurs quite a bit.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
And when unemployment eventually rises and demand softens, that will be good? For who?
The ~95% who are still employed, unless you think inflation doesn't hurt anyone.
In any event, what we have is far from unfettered capitalism but I won't take the stinky bait. I was just explaining the very simple reason for the inverse relationship right now.
