Hot damn, I agree. First Fed meeting in a while that wasn’t an awful day.
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Stock Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
The General
Footballguy
How far does AMZN drop tonight after earnings? +/- 6%
ChiefD
Footballguy
Now, why you gotta kick me in the nuts like that today?
Capella
Footballguy
What? Lol
The General
Footballguy
Put on your industrial strength cup!
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I sure as hell hope so. I was counting on Powell being himself for another month and wrote calls on AMZN at 103.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Fixed your postIt really is. I agree with the take that Powell will keep saying the same stuff. Jobs market still looks good and they seem to hate that.
Yup, such a weird thing in that their whole goal is really to put a few million more people out of work, and they won't stop until they've done so.
Capitalism doesn't work
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I hope you are right but I still fully expect a choppy market in the near term. A lot of the recent market gains are a result of stocks that had been devastatingly obliterated bouncing. While I get that Powell did acknowledge that there were some very early positive signs as a result of tightening- he still sounded pretty dang hawkish to me. I guess it all depends on how much we feel is baked into the markets. If economic apocalypse is baked in- we could be in for a fun ride. If the market is pricing in rate cuts before the end of the year- there is still room for some turbulence
The General
Footballguy
If any stock can dump the bed…it’s AMZNI sure as hell hope so. I was counting on Powell being himself for another month and wrote calls on AMZN at 103.
Feels like 24-hours of overzealous buying. I'm almost completely long so happy about the big move in January and the response to Powell's remarks yesterday. But today I am selling some covered calls and even buying some SPY puts as a hedge. Feels like too far too fast.
Sand
Footballguy
I think you're right, but I'm just
past the graveyard.Why do you two have to be dicks? Ruining a fun couple days.If any stock can dump the bed…it’s AMZNI sure as hell hope so. I was counting on Powell being himself for another month and wrote calls on AMZN at 103.
I feel the same but I also know I’m still down a ton. A lot of what’s been on fire is stuff that was down a lot more than say the Dow stocks, so while I have mixed feelings about the pop I also don’t think we are close to over valued. There are a lot of stocks that are close to all time highs that I’d be more worried about. Interest rate/inflation sensitive stocks do have good reasons to feel good. For example a stock down say 50%, may look crazy with a 10% jump but it’s only really regained 5% of it’s high.
The General
Footballguy
It’s a joke.Why do you two have to be dicks? Ruining a fun couple days.If any stock can dump the bed…it’s AMZNI sure as hell hope so. I was counting on Powell being himself for another month and wrote calls on AMZN at 103.
I know. @ConstruxBoy is a friend IRL and I hope he dwells on 2/2/23 as the day he missed Amazon on it’s way back to finally getting to 4000, split adjusted!It’s a joke.Why do you two have to be dicks? Ruining a fun couple days.If any stock can dump the bed…it’s AMZNI sure as hell hope so. I was counting on Powell being himself for another month and wrote calls on AMZN at 103.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Guess I'll need you to buy the beers at Duckworth's, huh?
It depends on post 4pm. Down, you buy while I cry and up, I’ll buy a lot.
The General
Footballguy
From your lips to God’s ears!I know. @ConstruxBoy is a friend IRL and I hope he dwells on 2/2/23 as the day he missed Amazon on it’s way back to finally getting to 4000, split adjusted!It’s a joke.Why do you two have to be dicks? Ruining a fun couple days.If any stock can dump the bed…it’s AMZNI sure as hell hope so. I was counting on Powell being himself for another month and wrote calls on AMZN at 103.
beef
Footballguy
Agreed. This volatility ride is far from over. Selling this rally from a day trader view could be a smart play. I was starting to get worried for Scott Wapner, thinking he may off himself on air with all the doom and gloom he kept spewing for months.
Todem
Footballguy
Scott Wapner may be the biggest business porn star I have ever heard. He is a total tool.
Todem
Footballguy
Sell covered calls!!!
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Not pretty after hours in tech
McBokonon
Footballguy
Been doing this. Did it again today except for anything that reports before a reasonable strike date.
McBokonon
Footballguy
This thing (AXON) has been a shining beacon. What a freaking horse. Probably due for a pullback but talk about a stock that’s just ignoring everything.I've been wanting to add to my AXON position and just did today as it hangs around 7 month lows.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Interesting job report today. I want to make crystal clear that what I’m about to say is nothing more than personal opinion. I find it very fishy that just before the state of the union—in an economy that is definitely slowing—that we had a blockbuster jobs report that came completely out of left field. Call me a conspiracy theorist—but I don’t know if I trust the jobs report number released today. With that said—I will fully admit that to me—I’m not sure what to make of the market. A super strong job market should make it easier for the fed to continue to tighten—which should be challenging for the market. Secondly—we had some pretty mediocre to terrible reports from Alphabet, Apple, QCOMM, Ford and Amazon—and the market is actually hanging in there a lot better than I would have anticipated. Is anybody else having a hard time evaluating all of these moving parts?
I agree. Projections were the low 200's. How do they miss that bad?
Capella
Footballguy
Seems to me this is confirmation bias. Are you sure it’s slowing?
Todem
Footballguy
The market priced in a recession in 2022. This is a bear market rally.
It’s only February 3rd.
We have a lot of time for more volatility ahead.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Manufacturing is slowing, higher percentage of companies are missing earnings, earnings are down, GDP is decelerating. Do you have data that shows our economy is accelerating? I’m all ears.
edit—i changed the word “growing” into “accelerating” as my claim was that the economy was slowing
Capella
Footballguy
I mean all the jobs is a pretty good indicator of that isn’t it? Missed earnings is a lagging measure.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
You are hitting the nail on the head to why I’m confused on how the market is reacting and why the jobs report is a little eyebrow raising. There seems to be a lot of opposing data sets in play here. One possibility could be that people that had decent and high paying jobs are getting back into the workforce and taking lower paying jobs. A lot of the hiring was in the hospitality, government and retail sectors. Let’s not forget that job reports routinely get adjusted as well—so there’s also that possibility.
dancingbones
Footballguy
I do recall Kai R saying on Marketplace yesterday that the margin of error of the jobs report was something like +/- 120,000 - FWIW
Capella
Footballguy
I can get behind this. We’ll see. I’m not optimistic that 2023 is going to be some incredible year for stocks or anything but just getting back on our feet after that pummeling last year is fine by me. I do think some of the doom and gloom around the entire economy was a bit overstated.
Sand
Footballguy
Let's recall that the government made a massive correction (like 2M?) to jobs last year. Hard to trust this 8 sigma number.
Edit - it was 1.2M.
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Todem
Footballguy
The doom and gloom has definitely been overstated. The biggest factor that is pulling the market one way or the other is what is going to be the end result of doubling the overnight rates inside 9 months which was unprecedented measures taken by a Fed that was clearly behind the 8 ball on inflation. It typically takes 4-6 months for each raise to be felt by the general economy.
Then you have the ECB and Japan raising as well…..China finally reopening, the ongoing Ukraine/Russia war.
So lot’s of levers at work. The housing market is undoubtedly going to slow and slow more and more in the first quarter. It will be interesting to see how Spring home sales and resales go as that is typically the highest season of buyer
And seller activity. Housing is a huge indicator.
I am not in the camp we are in a new bull market right now. I don’t think that starts till early to mid 2024.
I think 2023 will prove to be that those who broadly diversified heading into 2023 with a focus on total return by adding more high quality dividend paying stocks and adding a lot more fixed income than they may have in the past will do well this year. Shedding junkie high valuation speculative stocks on these big rallies is a wise move here. We had a massive tech crash in 2022 and a lot of those types of stocks will never come back to their highs ever again.
This is a very typical bear market rally coming off the worst market in the last 14 years. The market has had a great rally and I love it of course. But it won’t keep going in a straight line from here. That was a big January!!
If your diversified don’t even sweat it. It will most likely be a positive year in the market for 2023. It will take some real left hooks (black swains) to print back to back negative years. It’s a rare thing. And this economy is not teetering on the abyss like it was in 2008 and yet even though we were in 2008 there were enough tools in the tool box to print our way out of it.
The Fed doing all this tightening is a good thing long term. It’s painful right now…..Home Equity lines have doubled, mortgage rates have doubled, credit card rates have doubled. Inside 9 months.
Unprecedented.
Inflation is showing signs of slowing, supplies are absolutely building again. The Fed has a tough job trying to navigate a softer landing. Along the way we are going to have some turbulence.
So again my thoughts are build new cash for taxable accounts to deploy on violent pull backs. The year is early and just getting started. I mean you can get 4% on a money market…..what’s wrong with that? Then if you see some great stocks dropping to outstanding value multiple forward PE’s of 15 or less and you love those companies long term…..deploy that cash.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Total speculation but it seems like there are a lot of reasons why we could be seeing the difference in jobs versus some of the things you mentioned above (manufacturing, earnings, etc).
Part of it could just be a normalization in manufacturing after everyone was pumping to the max to catch up with supply chain issues. Now that there is actually some inventory on hand, seems to make sense to slow that down a bit.
Earnings misses were almost entirely tech companies and companies that benefited from covid. So again, could very well just be some normalization on that front and rebalancing in where people are spending their money. It's really kind of crazy to me that Amazon is growing at all from its mid covid numbers. Those numbers were so artificial and obviously propped up from everyone being stuck at home, it's a testament to how strong the economy is that their numbers are still growing at all from the stay at home numbers, and the only thing that's slowed is the unsustainable growth that created instead of the unsustainable revenue that created, which they've somehow managed to sustain.
And then I think the largest of all is that the whole thing is a self fulfilling prophecy. There's been so much doom and gloom that people are saving more and spending less, even when their own economic situation is still great. I realize a lot of it is politically motivated but if you go on social media and listen to the way people talk about the economy you'd think it was 2008, even while the economy is still strong as heck and everyone has tons of money. Everyone just talks like everyone else must be really hurting but they're all pointing to each other, while each of them are actually doing really well.
I do think we could see a big crash, and I honestly think we need it. But everyone has been talking like we're already in it when in reality the biggest problem we have with the economy has been that it's TOO STRONG and we can't slow it down.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
My concern is that we’ll never see 2% inflation again, but the Fed is hellbent on that happening - I think the new norm is 4%, due to corporate greed, companies knowing they can get away with it. The Fed needs to eventually move the goal posts instead of keep raising rates.
Capella
Footballguy
Of course. It’s a license to steal money behind the guise of inflation is making things go up. Infuriating.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Great info, do you think all tech doesn’t make it back to those highs or just the riskier ones not the giants?
Todem
Footballguy
The really high multiple junk tech. And stuff like SHOP and CRM and the like may take years and years.
Mega tech? Not worried about those long term. AAPL, GOOGL, META, MSFT and AMZN will continue to grow. Just not at the speed they did the previous decade.
Alien Fantasy
Footballguy
Hopefully, everyone loaded up on my tip. This one is getting juicy.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Oh my, BBBY
McBokonon
Footballguy
They just announed an offering, which is the right thing to do with the price artificially higher from this short squeeze. $225 million offering for a stock with a market cap of $358 million before the offering.
The offering document uses the 2/3 last price and says Post Effective. That’s ruthless if they sold a bunch today. Might as well just call it stealing.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I mean why wouldn’t they use these ridiculous pumps to sell stock and raise capital? Now……if they were in on the pump, that’s a different story. Not that the comatose SEC would do anything anyways.
I understand why they did it. Just ruthless to do it today (and you know they had anonymous help) and deliver the post effective news at the end of today. Stock is already down 30% AHs.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
If the meme stock holders want to pay off their debt, more power to them. It doesn't change anything about the business and is just another transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich though.
