Just bought a position in IAT at $32.12, the IShares ETF for regional banks. It is down 43% since its 52 week high last August. I am of the belief the banking issue is isolated to just a few banks who horribly mismanaged investing client deposits into long term treasuries.
No it’s the Fed’s fault. Don’t you know that? Too fast to soon........but they telegraphed it while these few banks sat on their hands thinking....we are safe.
No...no you made a terrible decision and did not take action the moment we all knew what the Fed’s direction was taking. Who parks everything in one basket and ever thinks......it’s safe. Even parking in cash....you take on immense inflation and longevity risk. There are risks in everything. And not diversifying that risk is all on the people who were entrusted to do so.
Not the Federal Reserve who simply have one job. Monetary policy. They are not responsible for the catastrophe that was SVB or First Republic. They were not responsible for all the packaged hot garbage or mortgage backed securities back in the heyday of 2003-2006. They were not responsible for the leverage risk the banks took with all these junk they created. They were not responsible for AIG who insured all this packaged junk back in 2003-2006.
They simply again.....set monetary policy for banks to lend to each other. They do not manage their portfolios, risk and decisions.
For those that don’t agree with how they have raised rates too far too fast.....sure....I tend to agree with that aspect. They were behind the curve and played catch up and undoubtedly there is going to be some pain involved. But those institutions who saw this taking shape and planned accordingly.....should be commended and the ones who completely dropped the ball eg SVB
Are gone.
That’s capitalism.
There are going to be winners and losers. You can’t protect everyone and everything. There is risk taking that is involved. Everyone knows FDIC is 250K per depositor per account.
So if you are depositing far beyond that in your bank......you better do your homework on where you are putting your money. We can’t expect the taxpayer to protect every single persons deposits with bailouts and full back stops. Banks pay into FDIC as well.
Also TARP.........the taxpayer footed no bill there contrary to false narratives. Practically every cent was paid back with interest. It was a win win for the treasury and the tax payer. The financial system was saved from total ruin and a true armageddon and the treasury made money on the deal and a lot more regulation came into place. The Big banks are now looked to as a beacon of safety amid all this regional bank volatility. Why? They take very little risk.
I was a big proponent of letting some of these Super Banks fail back in 2008 and let banking become more regionalized so we get far better choices as consumers of credit. Well......it seems some of these regional banks got far too lofty, took on too much interest rate risk......and here we are.
How SVB just stood by...knowing where all their eggs were and not take action well before the result blows my mind. that is called incompetence.
So no......the Fed is not to blame. They merely lit the fuse to fold some banks who simply were totally a sleep at the wheel......again it’s on them. Not the Federal Reserve.
Interest rates are not going be cut this year unless something catastrophic happens. The Fed has completely unwinded a lot of their bond purchases and now actually have tools again to combat recessionary conditions (which they are causing....by design to recalibrate the economy, pricing, inflation and cost of credit).
And in all fairness......if Covid never happened.....we would have already been at these interest rate levels back in 2021. Rates needed to go higher....and they were back in 2017 and 2018 until political forces had the Fed pivot.....that is where I take a huge issue with the Fed......they caved. There was no reason to cut again....none. And that left them totally vulnerable when Covid hit hard in March 2020.
9 trillion of liquidity between the Trump and Biden administration’s pumped into an economy at 0-.25% overnight rates.
The roosters are now coming home to roost. Business's are being affected, the real estate market is now going to really feel the effects and I get it is hurting those in that side of the business (relators, mortgage brokers)...but understand we may never in our lifetime see a rate environment like we did between 2020 and 2021. In fact I hope not. That means things are really bad.
I think second half of 2024 the cutting will begin to a more accommodative level. Not what we saw in 2020 and 2021.....but think prime 50% lower than where it is today....hell it went up over 450 basis points inside 12 months....that is fast. And yes it has damage.
But the Fed is not a direct reason some regional banks are having issues. That is solely on them. They fell asleep at the wheel.
Some may not agree.....that’s ok.
It’s just my opinion. But I am quite strong in my conviction of all of this. I am not looking to debate it.....but I don’t mind reading other opinions. We can have our opinions without having to argue or prove either of us are right. There are a lot of levers at work.
I happen to think the economy has shown some great resilience...but it’s starting to finally crack more and again......it was by design.
I look forward to a much better 2024 and more in particular the second half of 2024 where I can easily see a new bull market starting again. But we are going to take some painful medicine right now. I don’t like it either. Everything costs more, credit costs more and that will cause a moderate recession. As the Fed is intending. To cool this all off.