Yeah that was a rough year for a diversified portfolio
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Stock Thread (25 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Sand
Footballguy
General commentary - dispersion in market returns.
We had one day in 2023 with a 2% loss - it's been 16 months. Not sure if it's a record, but I'm sure it would be on a top 10 list. You really have to go back to 2022 until you get a decent spread of returns. 2024 has been incredibly boring. Now that the cherry is broken perhaps we'll get some upside dispersion to match. This market still looks to want to go up.
We had one day in 2023 with a 2% loss - it's been 16 months. Not sure if it's a record, but I'm sure it would be on a top 10 list. You really have to go back to 2022 until you get a decent spread of returns. 2024 has been incredibly boring. Now that the cherry is broken perhaps we'll get some upside dispersion to match. This market still looks to want to go up.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
I THOUGHT ALL HEDGE FUNDS AGREED LONG AGO TO TAKE JULY OFF!!!!ONETRILLOOONMISSING11!!
steelerfan1
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
I think our gains were put in for the year and we will drift down here till the first rate cut.
After the election (I don't want to get political at all in here) we could see either a nice post election rally or pull back.
I like 2025 as being a more broad based rally and in the more historical average range.
2024 has been a great great year. Enjoy it.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I'll dip some fun money into SOXL. Why not
Capella
Footballguy
:( missed the 106
steelerfan1
Footballguy
me too. i got cute...
Capella
Footballguy
I was fn driving home. Expensive car ride.
beef
Footballguy
did anything really change that would be a total 180 from their last earnings report? I think they crush it again. but I'm an extremely biased bull with semi horns growing out my ***.
McBokonon
Footballguy
One thing is that overall investor impatience with NVDA's customers (like GOOGL and others) being unable to demonstrate an ROI on their AI capex might cause them to slow down their AI investment, making current NVDA projections too high. Not sure I fall in that camp personally but it's something to look for.
beef
Footballguy
I'm playing with a lot of free money from SOXL. It's almost paying for my house addition that broke ground today.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
so, you had an excuse, while i was just an idiot...
Bossman
Footballguy
I grabbed another healthy chunk at $113
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
And of course the political talk that would affect chip manufacturing was after the last earnings report so that's a potential change that people are factoring in as well.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
That's the big question long term.
Selling the pickaxes is only a great business if people are finding gold with those pickaxes. So far, the prospectors haven't found much of anything.
Short of Chat GPT, I can't really think of much AI stuff consumers are clamoring for. Adobe has probably one of the best AI implementations of any public company currently and I doubt it's made them a penny on their actual bottom line. It's pretty dang cool what their AI image editors can do. But I doubt the number of subscribers they've added from it are more than a rounding error.
I think 90% of the companies diddling with AI don't even have a plan for how it's going to make them money, they're just kind of doing it because everyone else is doing it.
I think the big potential money maker in AI is less consumer focused and more on the side of cutting expenses by replacing employees. But I'm MUCH more skeptical of that being something that's actually around the corner than most. Google's AI can't even consistently set a kitchen timer or close my blinds. We really think they're a year away from replacing a complicated $250k/yr managerial employee with it?
AI can't even solve a math problem from a dude known as @ChiefD
The software program we use for property management has released an AI module. It's pretty slick but at the end of the day I still have to proof everything because missing a Zero or posting an ad with multiple fair housings violations is expensive.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Quick pop down, Nasdaq 100 now down almost 10%
cosjobs
Footballguy
LPA with a nice move at the close
Desert_Power
Footballguy
What a wild day.
dino259
Footballguy
Interesting chart from June
Maik Jeaunz
Footballguy
do we think CRWD has found the bottom yet?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Maybe, but I'd also think the short term will be full of testimony, lawsuit announcements from a multitude of stakeholders (including shareholders) and defense against those lawsuits, insurance claims, renewal discounts, customer credits, settlements, looking for cost savings to offset unexpected expenditures and likely lost revenue, new ammunition for competitors in the sales market, etc. They may be a stalwart in the space, but that just seems like a less than ideal environment to try to generate growth.
Doesn't mean you can't make 20% on them in the next year. Just the reasons I'm hesitant to go there.
Edited for awful grammar
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McBokonon
Footballguy
I agree with Robert. I was as bullish as anyone on CRWD but I'm waiting at least a couple quarters, or more, to see the total impact of whatever discounts they need to provide to retain customers and any other financial fallout before going back.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Right on cue, $CRWD down 5% AH with the news that Delta has hired a law firm to seek compensation.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
DEO rough earnings and down 7% pre.
SOFI solid earnings and up 3%.
SBUX and MSFT report at close.
SOFI solid earnings and up 3%.
SBUX and MSFT report at close.
Capella
Footballguy
Got a second chance at this this morning and hit it.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Just curious, would a Dem win or a Rep win be better for this? Or does it even matter?
beef
Footballguy
IMO, doesn't matter. Good business decisions resulting in solid earnings and strong future growth should drive these stocks. Certain laws and regs can help/hurt, but these are the megas of mega caps. You don't get to that level without succeeding no matter what dipshit is sitting in the oval.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
My understanding is that the semi slide has been so fast because it was kind of a perfect storm, where BOTH parties said stuff that would be detrimental to semi's on the same day.
Biden admin said they were considering being more aggressive on their semiconductor trade restrictions with China (not sure if Kamala follows suit on this or not).
On the same day, Trump said that the US should not be paying for the defense of Taiwan, which I guess has the possibility of completely upending the semi markets if that were to lead to Chinese aggression in Taiwan.
Honestly between the potential trade restrictions, the ever looming potential political disaster in Taiwan, and more and more time passing where companies fail to yield any real world returns on their substantial AI investments, there is a lot of risk in the Semi space imo. Especially for something that is up so much already.
But of course, still lots of upside if those risks aren't realized.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I see we've learned nothing in here.
beef
Footballguy
Should also note that I'm a huge Semi bull and long the sector. I'm not buying or adding to make quick cash now. There has been recent news that could continue to impact these stocks, but 5 years from now I think I'll be extremely pleased that I was able to buy/add at these levels.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Sure, the problem is it doesn't end always end right there and there's folks in here with VERY itchy report fingers. BVFWIH
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The results of an election are simply an extremely relevant thing when it comes to stocks. CNBC doesn't shy away from it either. I agree the leash should be short if people start veering off to actually being political instead of it just being how political policies affect stocks, but the regulars in here have always been great at keeping it as the latter. This thread has made it through two elections and covid without much of an issue on that front, while the rest of the forum burned down around us.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Lost everything on my 210 58 puts expiring (almost 800).
On the Aug 18 expiry, doing very very well.
58 Put bought for .52 now 2.20
60 Put 1.03 / 3.50
61 Put .41 / 4.40
Sold a few today o cover last month's losses and pocket some profit.
Unfortunately I only have 5-10 contracts of each Put. I sure wish I had 200 contracts like the first round
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JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Not enjoying the immediate AH reaction to MSFT
KGB
Footballguy
Loving it! Go puts!
