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Stock Thread (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Fool me once shame on you. Fool me 23 times...you can't get fooled again.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Full blown recession fears now. If they come to pass, small caps are the worst place to be.
McBokonon
Footballguy
MELI's hanging in there remarkably well considering the broader market.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Seems like we went from "YAY, RATE CUT COMING, LET'S RALLY" to "THEY DIDN'T CUT, IT'S TOO LATE, HERE COMES THE RECESSION" all in the past three days.
+4.4% move in one of my long-term bond funds, that's a crazy day.
you know, I don't want to harp on the rate cut thing too much, but one thing that kills me about the fed is they ALWAYS seem to wait too long. They waited too long to start raising rates. They almost definitely waited too long to start cutting rates. I am 100% sure that these guys are smarter than me when it comes to this. But (and you knew there was a but coming), they use data points that are TRAILING indicators. I get that they want to error on the side of caution, but they are looking in the past to try to determine the future - it's akin to looking through the rear view mirror when driving. I am sure I'm not the only one that has ever made this point, but damn if it isn't always the case.
And I'm not even really concerned about the cuts in regard to the stock market. Bond market is more important any way. But, taking too long to cut rates chops small businesses and consumers off at the knees (not too mention the effects it can have on commercial real estate and our debt).
I know we've been at near zero for way, way too long, but they went up too far as well. Hopefully, this is a relatively short situation, less than say 18 months if we are really in a recession, is about normal.
/rant
And I'm not even really concerned about the cuts in regard to the stock market. Bond market is more important any way. But, taking too long to cut rates chops small businesses and consumers off at the knees (not too mention the effects it can have on commercial real estate and our debt).
I know we've been at near zero for way, way too long, but they went up too far as well. Hopefully, this is a relatively short situation, less than say 18 months if we are really in a recession, is about normal.
/rant
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
2 times does not equal "always". Prior to these 2 you're referencing, their biggest fault was that they had cut too fast (in 2019), which played a big part in accelerating our run into inflation. I've said many many times in this thread (when people thought they'd start cutting in early 2023, and then mid 2023, and then late 2023, and then early 2024, etc) that by far the most likely outcome this time was that they were going to wait too long, precisely because they'd erred in the opposite direction the last time cuts were on the table and the fed has a tendency to overcorrect so as not to make the same mistake again.
The most common outcome of inflationary periods is that the pressure is eased off too soon and inflation ramps all the way back up to the peak. They couldn't risk inflation spiking again as it would both destroy the market (way worse than we're seeing right now) and put impossible pressure on the lower class.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
My cash (SHV) has become a bit elevated since June so shifted about 1/5th of that over into market ETFs
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Todem
Footballguy
Nice. Next week will be another chance as this correction deepens IMO.
DCA into those ETF's.
Todem
Footballguy
S&P is now down 9.85% from all time high
Dow is now down just 4.29% off all time high
Nasdaq is now down 10.25% off all time high.
2/3 are now officially in correction territory with another 5-7% more downside next week in the cards.....or not.
I am willing to wait to see how Monday and Tuesday go....and if it snaps back so be it.....if not we can add some powder (I don't have a lot to be honest).
Been a while.......but this is healthy short term folks. We will be fine.
Dow is now down just 4.29% off all time high
Nasdaq is now down 10.25% off all time high.
2/3 are now officially in correction territory with another 5-7% more downside next week in the cards.....or not.
I am willing to wait to see how Monday and Tuesday go....and if it snaps back so be it.....if not we can add some powder (I don't have a lot to be honest).
Been a while.......but this is healthy short term folks. We will be fine.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I did very well with SRTY today. And UVXY and all those PUTS I had against momentum stocks..
My one really stupid move as buying way too AMZN just before close yesterday and then selling pre-market for an $1800 haircut.
Then I started selling everything else except UWMC, HCA, COST, and UCO. Good move except UCO losing again, despite the ME unrest.
cosjobs
Footballguy
When Pauley was young she was as hot as the current 286 chip
cosjobs
Footballguy
Trickle back in, we may not be done with the correction.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Is it normal for the corrections to be this fast? Over 6% on the Nasdaq in two days.
Outside of covid times, of course.
Todem
Footballguy
Yes…..absolutely.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I saw a study a number of years back that measured the top 5 declines and top 5 gains in the market in a given year. The average time lag between a top decline and then a top gain was like 7 days. Really. Stay in the market or buy more.
culdeus
Footballguy
Wsb is talking about this. I mean they talk about everything stonks, but then yolo it.
I have some cash laying around from a bonus. May deploy it Wednesday.
massraider
Footballguy
Aug 3 (Reuters) - Warren Buffett appears to have soured on stocks, letting cash at Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N), opens new tab soar to nearly $277 billion and selling a large chunk of its stake in Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab, even as the conglomerate posted a record quarterly operating profit.
Berkshire sold about 390 million Apple shares in the second quarter, on top of 115 million shares from January to March, as Apple's stock price rose 23%. It still owned about 400 million shares worth $84.2 billion as of June 30.
The cash stake grew to $276.9 billion from $189 billion three months earlier largely because Berkshire sold a net $75.5 billion of stocks. It was the seventh straight quarter Berkshire sold more stocks than it bought.
Berkshire sold about 390 million Apple shares in the second quarter, on top of 115 million shares from January to March, as Apple's stock price rose 23%. It still owned about 400 million shares worth $84.2 billion as of June 30.
The cash stake grew to $276.9 billion from $189 billion three months earlier largely because Berkshire sold a net $75.5 billion of stocks. It was the seventh straight quarter Berkshire sold more stocks than it bought.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Didn't we already have the top gain of the year like 3 days ago?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Maybe
TripItUp
Footballguy
Nikkei down 6.35% as I type.
Yep, could be in store for a major correction
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
"Yoo hoo, Big Summer Blowout" - Frozen
beef
Footballguy
Still holding? Should have tailed you.
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Insoxicated
So apparently hedge funds ****ing the global economy again. Expect to be chewing a lotta Big Red today fellas.Nikkei down 6.35% as I type.
This time they reportedly got caught indirectly trying to short the Yen?
Japanese central bank raised interest rates for the first time in a hot minute. They are getting squeezed.
Good explanation here.
x.com
x.com
McBokonon
Footballguy
Hedgies making a bad bet in the yen - Scroll up to icon’s post.
culdeus
Footballguy
I read this stuff and wonder how much a single bad play factors here. The market moved 4T if you figure world market cap is about 100T. The entire world hedge market cap is like 3T.So apparently hedge funds ****ing the global economy again. Expect to be chewing a lotta Big Red today fellas.Nikkei down 6.35% as I type.
This time they reportedly got caught indirectly trying to short the Yen?
Japanese central bank raised interest rates for the first time in a hot minute. They are getting squeezed.
Good explanation here.
x.com
Maybe some pigs got slaughtered, but there's more to this.
CNBC (person who knows something): This is not a good day to sell. CNBC (Joe Kiernan): This looks like the day to sell.
McBokonon
Footballguy
I read this stuff and wonder how much a single bad play factors here. The market moved 4T if you figure world market cap is about 100T. The entire world hedge market cap is like 3T.So apparently hedge funds ****ing the global economy again. Expect to be chewing a lotta Big Red today fellas.Nikkei down 6.35% as I type.
This time they reportedly got caught indirectly trying to short the Yen?
Japanese central bank raised interest rates for the first time in a hot minute. They are getting squeezed.
Good explanation here.
x.com
Maybe some pigs got slaughtered, but there's more to this.
This is a little (a lot) beyond my pay grade, but I think the hedgie(s) exploding causes significant automated contagion elsewhere, and then there’s the panic selling.
Todem
Footballguy
Market is lowering rates for him right now.
This is gonna play right into the Feds plans.
They raised fast and furious (.75 at a time 4 times I believe in addition to a .25 and a few .50) and now they have arrows in the quiver to lower rates.
Market is now 70% (maybe after this week 90%) sure they cut .50 in September and another cut in November and December.
We always thought the back half of 2024…..well that’s fast approaching and the market is selling off the froth.
Par for the course.
Thoughts on buying the TLT (or TLT calls)? Everyone is telegraphing rate drops from September until who knows when. The TLT already moved on the non-news last week when rates were held steady but the market pushed TLT higher anyway. Stands to reason that it should continue to climb over the next five months when rates actually go down.
Todem
Footballguy
It’s a logical trade and it’s being telegraphed by the markets.
Look at the 10 year pre market today.
Nugget
Footballguy
I'm holding my TMF. Up 20% over past 30 days. It is up another 4% pre market.
Capella
Footballguy
Thanks. I bought more last week so sadly sitting this one out I guess.
