Todem
Footballguy
Bond market closed. Stonks gonna stonk.
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Stock Thread (43 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Sand
Footballguy
That particular measure is from the start of the last four administrations through present. It just hammers home that you just keep buying. And that the markets, in the balance, really don't distinguish too much between red and blue.
McBokonon
Footballguy
This one is going well. Too bad @General Malaise didn't tail this one. (don't worry, NICE will be fine eventually.)Started an $APP position over the last couple of days.
Not even remotely worried on NICE.
Hey @General Malaise - not sure if you’re still holding $NICE but it’s back to where it was when we were talking about it, maybe even a little higher. They report on Thursday. I’m selling out with my modest gains beforehand and moving the proceeds elsewhere. I’m sure it’ll be fine but market sentiment just isn’t there for it like I want and there’s higher conviction plays I want to add to.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
SOFI on the rocket ship. +57% one month return.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Thanks, is that the S&P? And can you back further for us?
Sand
Footballguy
I don't have that, but here is a good overview of what you're interested in:
Presidential Terms, Recessions & Bear Markets - A Wealth of Common Sense
Some thoughts on the relationship between presidents, bear markets and recessions.
awealthofcommonsense.com
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DevilDog919
Footballguy
Thoughts on RXRX? Biotech stock that uses AI. Cathy Woods has bought in. Afterhour guys got me onto it. Having nice day today.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Uwmc.Quite the fall over the last couple of months.
3 years later and my mind hasn’t changed at all.
General Malaise
Footballguy
This one is going well. Too bad @General Malaise didn't tail this one. (don't worry, NICE will be fine eventually.)Started an $APP position over the last couple of days.
Not even remotely worried on NICE.
Hey @General Malaise - not sure if you’re still holding $NICE but it’s back to where it was when we were talking about it, maybe even a little higher. They report on Thursday. I’m selling out with my modest gains beforehand and moving the proceeds elsewhere. I’m sure it’ll be fine but market sentiment just isn’t there for it like I want and there’s higher conviction plays I want to add to.
Yup, still long. Cost basis is $197, so I'm still red on it. Appreciate the heads up but I think I'll stick with this one for a while. I've got nothing else compelling me to sell here.
Sand
Footballguy
Didn't realize it has dropped that much - just added. Even if you are correct and it is nothing but a bond it's a bond at 6.5% yield. I'll bite. The housing market is in vapor lock (worst market since, what, 1991?) - that will break loose at some point and the bet is that UWMC will benefit greatly when that happens.
Uwmc.
3 years later and my mind hasn’t changed at all.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Didn't realize it has dropped that much - just added. Even if McB is correct and it is nothing but a bond it's a bond at 6.5% yield. I'll bite. The housing market is in vapor lock (worst market since, what, 1991?) - that will break loose at some point and the bet is that UWMC will benefit greatly when that happens.
Uwmc.
3 years later and my mind hasn’t changed at all.
Yup, it was working when the expectation of lower mortgage rates this year was high, it peaked at the end of August ahead of the Sept Fed meeting. As mortgage rates haven't really come back down much at all, despite two cuts now, it's fallen way back again. But I agree, the housing market will "unstick" at some point and rates will come back down (enough), and this one pays a nice yield to wait.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Can they afford to keep paying it if volume doesn't follow soon?
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Draftkings had what was a poor earnings report last week, and got slammed briefly after hours, to the low 30's. Virginia and Missouri were the only two dominoes to fall in this election cycle for passing some gambling measures (expected more by now). But the days immediately following the earnings and revenue shortfall, and adjusted projections, have been great, busting through resistance and closing at $42.31 today.
I'll take the technical picture over the report I guess and continue to hold.
I'll take the technical picture over the report I guess and continue to hold.
Sand
Footballguy
They have 800M in cash and dividend burn rate is $45M per year, roughly. So from that point of view they have plenty to cover. Not sure about other debts, though.
ETA: Looks like they have a good bit of other debts. Not too surprising for a financial firm. I haven't seen much about dividend coverage being an issue, though. I would think if that was an issue it would come up.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
These online sportsbooks seem to be losing a lot of money. I've had some DKNG for a while, maybe looking to pare.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Shopify go kaboom
Been watching MRNA absolutely crater for the past six months, losing 75% of its value (and 90% of its value from the all-time high in 2021). Trading at $43 and I'm still not interested in catching this falling knife. However, there must be a support level but I cannot find it. Hasn't traded below $50 since before Covid when it was a fairly new name. I'm keeping an eye out for a bottom. Anyone with insight?
steelerfan1
Footballguy
This helps. SE looking okay too. I may be out of the red soon with these LOL
Desert_Power
Footballguy
My answer would be it is at least partially due to reasons we cannot discuss in the FFA.
Nugget
Footballguy
I think we can briefly touch on political influences as the relate to sectors/stock performance. I'd think pharma could be affected by RFK Jr. influence in the next administration. Potential changes to ACA/Medicaid/Medicare could also be a headwind.
Todem
Footballguy
Sell sell sell.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Not right now. I've been in and out of uranium names for 20+ years and right now, I think global uncertainty is keeping me at bay. NLR looks to have a bunch of names I'm familiar with, so if you DO like uranium/nuclear as a play, this makes sense.
You could also look at Sprott Physical Uranium Trust if you want a pure play on uranium. They trade at a 10% discount to spot price right now....
steelerfan1
Footballguy
no warm and fuzzies?
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
I've been stripping the profits from many of my small caps during this one week run. So far, it's just sitting in cash, but I might move it to QQQ since the mega cap tech stocks haven't moved much since the election. I know I'm going to hold a lot of cash if the tariff program happens - that's going to create choppy waters I don't want to swim in.
Todem
Footballguy
I just don’t like the forward multiple anymore at this level. The revenue growth does not match up with the multiple. Just my opinion. Huge premium in this stock price.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Wow, Flutter smashes it on all levels. Stock has done exceedingly well since joining the NYSE in January, up 75%. I wonder if DKNG's poor results last week, yet still followed up by an encouraging little run since, had anything to do with Flutter and how the "industry" is looking. Flutter also ran up this last week. Both up around 10% in the last 5 days of trading.
I've been in the DKNG camp, due it being more of a pure play on mobile sports gaming, but have looked at both as the kind of the Coke and Pepsi of it all. I think both do well. That said, I want more Coke than Pepsi, ha, and if Flut/Fanduel is it, then I might make some changes (though after some sort of dip).
Of interest is that both got hurt in their 4th quarter results due to the NFL this year. Players have actually had it good so far! To the tune that it affected both of their quarters was a surprise. But whatever, that will undoubtedly not last.
The shocker for me was, and great news for all of them, the in-game and prop betting. Get this, it's exceeding Super Bowl levels. To me, that is CRAZY. Not that it's happening, but that we're already here. Although whenever I go to sports bars and such, I always like to see who's betting on their app, when possible. SO many. Especially after TDs or commercial breaks, when they can bet live with a little more time. And this is in a state where it's not legal. All those people are blocking their IPs, no problem. The non-gambling states need to wake up, that's a lot of money pouring into their neighbor's pockets.
Anyway, FLUT might be best in breed after all, we'll see....
I've been in the DKNG camp, due it being more of a pure play on mobile sports gaming, but have looked at both as the kind of the Coke and Pepsi of it all. I think both do well. That said, I want more Coke than Pepsi, ha, and if Flut/Fanduel is it, then I might make some changes (though after some sort of dip).
Of interest is that both got hurt in their 4th quarter results due to the NFL this year. Players have actually had it good so far! To the tune that it affected both of their quarters was a surprise. But whatever, that will undoubtedly not last.
The shocker for me was, and great news for all of them, the in-game and prop betting. Get this, it's exceeding Super Bowl levels. To me, that is CRAZY. Not that it's happening, but that we're already here. Although whenever I go to sports bars and such, I always like to see who's betting on their app, when possible. SO many. Especially after TDs or commercial breaks, when they can bet live with a little more time. And this is in a state where it's not legal. All those people are blocking their IPs, no problem. The non-gambling states need to wake up, that's a lot of money pouring into their neighbor's pockets.
Anyway, FLUT might be best in breed after all, we'll see....
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urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Interesting. Man, that's a long 4 years, where he, or his advisors (hell, his wife or family even, you never know) could have got him out of that investment just to make sure he didn't get decimated. A rocky road like that, especially with what is a newer financial "vehicle", will often have people waving the white flag.
Would love to know what price he got it at, any idea? Could've been anywhere from 20K to 40K, looking at prices from mid-December to mid Jan. That's a huge difference. If he got it towards the latter, one could argue he would've have done better (for now) with a solid basket of tech-heavy stocks, along with much less risk. Although if he got it closer to 20K, then not so much.
Ballsy move, either way.
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General Malaise
Footballguy
Interesting. Man, that's a long 4 years, where he, or his advisors (hell, his wife or family even, you never know) could have got him out of that investment just to make sure he didn't get decimated. A rocky road like that, especially with what is a newer financial "vehicle", will often have people waving the white flag.
Approximately what price did he get it at, any idea? Ballsy move.
He didn't get paid in Bitcoin. The NFL wouldn't grant that but he did apparently take half his pay and buy Bitcoin with it. According to Wikipedia.....
steelerfan1
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
It’s just one mishap after another, after another, after another.
My thoughts still remain that long term they will right the ship and get back on track. Despite how rocky the last few years have been this is one of the great American companies in the world and is relied upon heavily in the aerospace landscape.
So here is what I would be doing in taxable accounts.
If you need a loss to offset some gains go ahead and take that loss and wait the obligatory 31 days and then go back in and stay long. It’s dead money right now but when it does awaken……it will fly (pun intended).
If you have an IRA I would not be selling down here.
Everything depends on your cost basis.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
This would be for and IRA. i am not an owner at this point, but was debating whether or not to jump in at this level for a little. Thanks for the above.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Boeing needs a complete regime change. Until they get some activists or something in there to clean house and bring in fresh blood at every level, the same people making the same mistakes will be the same people making the same mistakes. These are lessons that should have been learned if you stayed in $T or some other so-called blue chip who kept recycling the same people who made stupid decision after stupid decision.
Todem
Footballguy
I am so way ahead on T it’s kinda funny. The compounding I have gotten in that stock the last 35 plus years has been ridiculous.
BA is getting to the point of some house cleaning….and we have successfully traded this puppy many times.
Everything is about when you buy when making moves into distressed stocks.
Todem
Footballguy
I would definitely take a nibble here. Also this position would never exceed 3% of my overall portfolio.
McBokonon
Footballguy
That's great, but it doesn't make it a good buy now for those with 35 years in front of themselves.
Note that he didn’t actually get paid in crypto. The Panthers have him a check like everyone else. I’m assuming they also took out taxes and such. The articles never mention that.Interesting. Man, that's a long 4 years, where he, or his advisors (hell, his wife or family even, you never know) could have got him out of that investment just to make sure he didn't get decimated. A rocky road like that, especially with what is a newer financial "vehicle", will often have people waving the white flag.
Would love to know what price he got it at, any idea? Could've been anywhere from 20K to 40K, looking at prices from mid-December to mid Jan. That's a huge difference. If he got it towards the latter, one could argue he would've have done better (for now) with a solid basket of tech-heavy stocks, along with much less risk. Although if he got it closer to 20K, then not so much.
Ballsy move, either way.
He had to buy bitcoin himself using the net $$$s he was paid. Would be interesting to know if and when he got in and if he got out.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
There is a pro disc golfer who got half of his bonus paid in bitcoin a few years ago. I'm assuming he held, but...Note that he didn’t actually get paid in crypto. The Panthers have him a check like everyone else. I’m assuming they also took out taxes and such. The articles never mention that.Interesting. Man, that's a long 4 years, where he, or his advisors (hell, his wife or family even, you never know) could have got him out of that investment just to make sure he didn't get decimated. A rocky road like that, especially with what is a newer financial "vehicle", will often have people waving the white flag.
Would love to know what price he got it at, any idea? Could've been anywhere from 20K to 40K, looking at prices from mid-December to mid Jan. That's a huge difference. If he got it towards the latter, one could argue he would've have done better (for now) with a solid basket of tech-heavy stocks, along with much less risk. Although if he got it closer to 20K, then not so much.
Ballsy move, either way.
He had to buy bitcoin himself using the net $$$s he was paid. Would be interesting to know if and when he got in and if he got out.
x.com
twitter.com
Todem
Footballguy
If that’s what you think. I will stress again the importance of when you buy vs what you buy in this context.
I happened to purchase T for a large portion of my clients on July 31st 2023.
That was the last time I bought it.
It wad purchased at an avg cost basis of $14.50
It is now up 55% since then and we collected 5 quarters of dividends. The yield at that CB is 7.65%
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Investing in distressed companies is never for the faint of heart. I read a lot of Peter Lynch in the 90's and he loved buying on bad news. There definitely were some losers that went the way of the horse and buggy whip but he had a lot of winners amongst turnaround plays that usually offset that.
He was also a big small caps guy but hated investing in technology (makers that is, he loved companies that benefitted from tech.) Wonder how his portfolio style may or may not have changed the last 20 years since he retired.
McBokonon
Footballguy
There's a difference between buying a company still on the growth trajectory in a non-dying industry on bad news, and buying a distressed company that was formerly great, but is now in the late to final stages of its growth trajectory. One of those quotes I added up there was talking about RTX. They got bad news that punished the stock, but RTX also didn't have clear, longstanding problems underneath the bad news. Sometimes one-offs happen and that seemed to be the case with them.
Sometimes you get an IBM that turns it around, or a MSFT. But those turnarounds didn't happen overnight, and it took major shakeups for those to find their footing. I'm just saying I need to see some sort of major change at old stalwarts like T, BA, CSCO, etc. to see them as investable again.
Sometimes you get an IBM that turns it around, or a MSFT. But those turnarounds didn't happen overnight, and it took major shakeups for those to find their footing. I'm just saying I need to see some sort of major change at old stalwarts like T, BA, CSCO, etc. to see them as investable again.
Todem
Footballguy
I generally don’t disagree with you.
But I just edited my post where I responded to you. Check out what I mean about T
And speaking of CSCO we did that on 2/28/24
Bought it at $48
We are up 23% in less than year.
Tactical buying on distressed stocks is something I have been doing for over 35 years. Most of the time it has worked out really nice.
McBokonon
Footballguy
yeah, trading is a different thing altogether. Like when we all were trading BLMN back in the day - no way I'd buy it and forget it for 5-10 years, but trades, sure.
Todem
Footballguy
Exactly!!!!
Now when it comes to T and CSCO for example….when I see an emotional sell off on a fairly stable business that pays great dividends…..I get horny.
The yields and gains can be juicy over a longer holding period.
