Stock Thread (6 Viewers)

[General Malaise]

Tariffs on for tomorrow. Stock market just taking on water.

 

[NajehHejan]

This market sucks. The uncertainty regarding tariffs and geopolitical risks is killing it. I’m hoping for 1 good day tomorrow or Wednesday to trim more and build more cash. If 2 red days in a row will sell anyway on Wednesday

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Seems like we're getting into the area to seriously consider selling some puts on NVDA. We're right about at a point where you can sell them such that you either end up collecting decent free premium or buying shares with a sub-$100 cost basis, both of which I'd be okay with.

 

[General Malaise]

Seems like we're getting into the area to seriously consider selling some puts on NVDA. We're right about at a point where you can sell them such that you either end up collecting decent free premium or buying shares with a sub-$100 cost basis, both of which I'd be okay with.

I wish I had even the most rudimentary understanding of how to trade options but I'm afraid I'd learn just enough to be dangerous.

Instead, I put on some SQQQ and SDOW. If that doesn't get us to turn around, nothing will. This sucks.

 

[fruity pebbles]

This market is great

 

[BassNBrew]

Awesome day...picking up some bargains.

 

[Schmeabs]

I continue to buy on weakness on days like today. We are still in a bull market with healthy economic and profit growth, supportive Fed policy and huge AI spending and adoption will help drive the market. I expect inflation to moderate further and S&P 500 earnings growth of around 8% this year.

The tariffs are annoying but it is a negotiation tactic. They will be temporary as it is not a winning political strategy and Trump knows this. They will not be on for any amount of time to have long lasting negative impacts on economic growth or inflation.

 

[ghostguy123]

I just bought a little VRT cause.....Todem said so, lol. Was down like 11% today when I bought.
I wanna buy some more but not sure what. Sprinkled a little more in DOW, LYB, TTD, and some fun SOXL

 

[The_Man]

Sold, sold, sold at the opening bell . I thought to myself: "self, in one year, what will I have wished I had done on 2/21/25?" and I answered myself "I wish I had moved even more into that sweet money market that is paying 4.3% and gotten the heck out of an overpriced market before _____ hit the fan." You're welcome, future me. (Disclosure: allocation now about 50% equities, 20% bonds, 30% cash, a good dozen years until retirement.)

And if the market is up 10% a year from now, what do you do then?

Not questioning your decision in any way, seems incredibly reasonable to me. I’m always just curious how people who are timing the market think about the plan to get back in. You have to be right twice. To come out ahead of just staying the course.

I know people that got out in 2022, and they’re still sitting on a pile of cash waiting for the right time to get back in as the market ran away from them.

I moved about 50% to a Money Market a couple of days before the first so-called Tariffs were supposed to hit (S&P was at 6068). Short-term, I might put some back in after a Budget Deal is struck between the House and Senate but I expect a lot of turmoil and foolishness before that eventually happens. Longer-term, I am probably going to wait until much closer to the mid-term elections to see if they actually take place as scheduled.

Still making my monthly contributions into an S&P Index Fund though might change it to an S&P equal weight index fund. If I miss out on some gains with the 50% I've parked, I can live with it way more than how I'll feel watching things go off the rails (like I think they will) and having done nothing about it

The question of how / when to get back in is a very good one that I certainly don't know the answer to @SFBayDuck

I just went ahead and put one-quarter of the money I pulled out in January (in other words, 12.5% of my total balance) back in to my usual S&P index fund. Not trying to time a top or bottom, just trying to shield funds from what I think will be an overall downward trend for the time being - so putting a chunk back in after shielding it from a 4% drop seems like the kind of sensible win I'm happy with

(and I want to get this on the record, as some kind of accountability tends to help me make more reasonable decisions)

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I continue to buy on weakness on days like today. We are still in a bull market with healthy economic and profit growth, supportive Fed policy and huge AI spending and adoption will help drive the market. I expect inflation to moderate further and S&P 500 earnings growth of around 8% this year.

The tariffs are annoying but it is a negotiation tactic. They will be temporary as it is not a winning political strategy and Trump knows this. They will not be on for any amount of time to have long lasting negative impacts on economic growth or inflation.

Got anything else?

 

[fruity pebbles]

Nvidia now with the same forward PE as Coca Cola

 

[BassNBrew]

I continue to buy on weakness on days like today. We are still in a bull market with healthy economic and profit growth, supportive Fed policy and huge AI spending and adoption will help drive the market. I expect inflation to moderate further and S&P 500 earnings growth of around 8% this year.

The tariffs are annoying but it is a negotiation tactic. They will be temporary as it is not a winning political strategy and Trump knows this. They will not be on for any amount of time to have long lasting negative impacts on economic growth or inflation.

Got anything else?

You've been here long enough to know the rules.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I continue to buy on weakness on days like today. We are still in a bull market with healthy economic and profit growth, supportive Fed policy and huge AI spending and adoption will help drive the market. I expect inflation to moderate further and S&P 500 earnings growth of around 8% this year.

The tariffs are annoying but it is a negotiation tactic. They will be temporary as it is not a winning political strategy and Trump knows this. They will not be on for any amount of time to have long lasting negative impacts on economic growth or inflation.

Got anything else?

You've been here long enough to know the rules.

He's trying to sell me something. I want to buy it. Part of his sales pitch doesn't resonate with me. I'd like to know if he has any other salient points to offer.

 

[guru_007]

Nvidia now with the same forward PE as Coca Cola

Crazy, and no slow down in demand on these chips for the foreseeable future. I love @FreeBaGeL thoughts of selling puts on them to scoop up NVDA even cheaper, but I owe so much money in income taxes this year I can't be tying up my cash until after April D'OH

 

[McBokonon]

$EUAD is a fairly new ETF - European aerospace and defense companies. Seems prudent.

This was up 9.21% today because of course I was a day late.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Nvidia now with the same forward PE as Coca Cola

Crazy, and no slow down in demand on these chips for the foreseeable future. I love @FreeBaGeL thoughts of selling puts on them to scoop up NVDA even cheaper, but I owe so much money in income taxes this year I can't be tying up my cash until after April D'OH

The semi drop has gotten as crazy as the consumer staples run up. Semi index back to where it was exactly one year ago. You’ve got KO and PG growing revenue at 2% with a 24 forward PE. And I get where we are in the cycle and what we’re supposed to be investing in now but that’s ridiculous. Everybody is always in on the same trade.

 

[Redwes25]

I continue to buy on weakness on days like today. We are still in a bull market with healthy economic and profit growth, supportive Fed policy and huge AI spending and adoption will help drive the market. I expect inflation to moderate further and S&P 500 earnings growth of around 8% this year.

The tariffs are annoying but it is a negotiation tactic. They will be temporary as it is not a winning political strategy and Trump knows this. They will not be on for any amount of time to have long lasting negative impacts on economic growth or inflation.

I agree with basics of economic analysis but tariff thing is a total wild card. The way he talks about Tariffs I don't see it as a negotiating strategy. I worry they are here to stay. He negotiated a new trade deal with Mexico and Canadian in his last term but here we are again.

 

[Schmeabs]

I continue to buy on weakness on days like today. We are still in a bull market with healthy economic and profit growth, supportive Fed policy and huge AI spending and adoption will help drive the market. I expect inflation to moderate further and S&P 500 earnings growth of around 8% this year.

The tariffs are annoying but it is a negotiation tactic. They will be temporary as it is not a winning political strategy and Trump knows this. They will not be on for any amount of time to have long lasting negative impacts on economic growth or inflation.

Got anything else?

Sorry, the Trump administration knows this

 

[Dr_Zaius]

Seems like we're getting into the area to seriously consider selling some puts on NVDA. We're right about at a point where you can sell them such that you either end up collecting decent free premium or buying shares with a sub-$100 cost basis, both of which I'd be okay with.

I sold a May 100 put on Friday. Could have gotten ~30% more if I had sold it today so that stinks, but it's not like you're going to time it perfectly. I'm already long the stock so I won't be selling any more puts for the time being.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I continue to buy on weakness on days like today. We are still in a bull market with healthy economic and profit growth, supportive Fed policy and huge AI spending and adoption will help drive the market. I expect inflation to moderate further and S&P 500 earnings growth of around 8% this year.

The tariffs are annoying but it is a negotiation tactic. They will be temporary as it is not a winning political strategy and Trump knows this. They will not be on for any amount of time to have long lasting negative impacts on economic growth or inflation.

Got anything else?

Sorry, the Trump administration knows this

What are we buying?

 

[Schmeabs]

I continue to buy on weakness on days like today. We are still in a bull market with healthy economic and profit growth, supportive Fed policy and huge AI spending and adoption will help drive the market. I expect inflation to moderate further and S&P 500 earnings growth of around 8% this year.

The tariffs are annoying but it is a negotiation tactic. They will be temporary as it is not a winning political strategy and Trump knows this. They will not be on for any amount of time to have long lasting negative impacts on economic growth or inflation.

Got anything else?

Sorry, the Trump administration knows this

What are we buying?

Adding to AI stocks like NVDA, AMZN, META, GOOGL on days like today. Some Financials as well like JPM. Just adding some index ETFs as well like VTI, VUG and VTV.

 

[Todem]

Nvidia now with the same forward PE as Coca Cola

Crazy, and no slow down in demand on these chips for the foreseeable future. I love @FreeBaGeL thoughts of selling puts on them to scoop up NVDA even cheaper, but I owe so much money in income taxes this year I can't be tying up my cash until after April D'OH

The semi drop has gotten as crazy as the consumer staples run up. Semi index back to where it was exactly one year ago. You’ve got KO and PG growing revenue at 2% with a 24 forward PE. And I get where we are in the cycle and what we’re supposed to be investing in now but that’s ridiculous. Everybody is always in on the same trade.

The rotation is staggering this year.

My current income clients portfolios are destroying the S&P 500 by over 400 basis points now. People are slamming into staples, utilities and bonds.

Well look at that....diversification actually is working again.

Anyway agree....but we absolutely have more room to fall. And that's ok. Par for the course.

The elevator has gone straight up to penthouse in 2023 and 2024. Of course we are going to have a lot of froth and foam to blow off.......be patient. Pick your spots.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Nvidia now with the same forward PE as Coca Cola

Crazy, and no slow down in demand on these chips for the foreseeable future. I love @FreeBaGeL thoughts of selling puts on them to scoop up NVDA even cheaper, but I owe so much money in income taxes this year I can't be tying up my cash until after April D'OH

The semi drop has gotten as crazy as the consumer staples run up. Semi index back to where it was exactly one year ago. You’ve got KO and PG growing revenue at 2% with a 24 forward PE. And I get where we are in the cycle and what we’re supposed to be investing in now but that’s ridiculous. Everybody is always in on the same trade.

The rotation is staggering this year.

My current income clients portfolios are destroying the S&P 500 by over 400 basis points now. People are slamming into staples, utilities and bonds.

Well look at that....diversification actually is working again.

Anyway agree....but we absolutely have more room to fall. And that's ok. Par for the course.

The elevator has gone straight up to penthouse in 2023 and 2024. Of course we are going to have a lot of froth and foam to blow off.......be patient. Pick your spots.

Agree 100%. The time to be diversified was when you did it though. Seems like a lot of people are now trying to be diversified, after the move is already made. If anything now is the time to start dipping back into tech imo.

 

[Sand]

I continue to buy on weakness on days like today. We are still in a bull market with healthy economic and profit growth, supportive Fed policy and huge AI spending and adoption will help drive the market. I expect inflation to moderate further and S&P 500 earnings growth of around 8% this year.

The tariffs are annoying but it is a negotiation tactic. They will be temporary as it is not a winning political strategy and Trump knows this. They will not be on for any amount of time to have long lasting negative impacts on economic growth or inflation.

Got anything else?

Sorry, the Trump administration knows this

What are we buying?

I'm not buying yet, but I am giving a "How you doin'?" side eye to CEG. PE is now down below 20 and I don't see the AI boom stopping at this point.

 

[General Malaise]

I continue to buy on weakness on days like today. We are still in a bull market with healthy economic and profit growth, supportive Fed policy and huge AI spending and adoption will help drive the market. I expect inflation to moderate further and S&P 500 earnings growth of around 8% this year.

The tariffs are annoying but it is a negotiation tactic. They will be temporary as it is not a winning political strategy and Trump knows this. They will not be on for any amount of time to have long lasting negative impacts on economic growth or inflation.

Got anything else?

You've been here long enough to know the rules.

Did you and MOP get singled out to do the FBG Mod's bidding or is this just a voluntary undertaking that you two have committed to? Because increasingly, the two of you have admonished posters who have been around as long as you have for minor transgressions and I got to tell you, it comes across as brown-nosing like a hall monitor who so desperately wants to be liked by authority. Obsequious, even.

 

[belljr]

Nothing to see here

 

[beef]

Our markets are crashing. Eggs are a high price luxury food now. Housing & other costs are still insane. Our allies are bailing on us. But we still got the Gulf of America dammit!

 

[Capella]

Odds they reverse course on these stupid tarrifs in the next 10 days?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Odds they reverse course on these stupid tarrifs in the next 10 days?

Based on gut feeling? Low. Based on recent history? High.

It seems like every time we get into one of these ruts where we're thinking "oh this is finally it", a few days later we're back on and busting through ATHs.

 

[BassNBrew]

I continue to buy on weakness on days like today. We are still in a bull market with healthy economic and profit growth, supportive Fed policy and huge AI spending and adoption will help drive the market. I expect inflation to moderate further and S&P 500 earnings growth of around 8% this year.

The tariffs are annoying but it is a negotiation tactic. They will be temporary as it is not a winning political strategy and Trump knows this. They will not be on for any amount of time to have long lasting negative impacts on economic growth or inflation.

Got anything else?

You've been here long enough to know the rules.

Did you and MOP get singled out to do the FBG Mod's bidding or is this just a voluntary undertaking that you two have committed to? Because increasingly, the two of you have admonished posters who have been around as long as you have for minor transgressions and I got to tell you, it comes across as brown-nosing like a hall monitor who so desperately wants to be liked by authority. Obsequious, even.

Nope. Just tried of watching good threads get locked because minor transgressions from long time posters have resulted in the Gaza/Israel and long running Gov't Employee thread getting locked. J has specifically said they aren't going to spend time punishing the offenders, they are going to lock threads. Not my preferred approach, but his business and business decision. He's the one who loses subscribers and revenue due to enforcing the rules. Several of us have been hall monitoring the Russia/Ukraine thread for years and it's survived. If we start blaming specific politicians for stock woes, then this thread will join the other locked threads. I don't want to lose this thread because I'll lose access to the thoughts of some pretty smart dudes in the market including you.

Hopefully people will stop mentioning Trump unless they are posting a news article/link and not adding commentary. Hopefully if someone doesn't do this and posts something polictical then rest of us will refrain for debate or atta boys.

 

[General Malaise]

I continue to buy on weakness on days like today. We are still in a bull market with healthy economic and profit growth, supportive Fed policy and huge AI spending and adoption will help drive the market. I expect inflation to moderate further and S&P 500 earnings growth of around 8% this year.

The tariffs are annoying but it is a negotiation tactic. They will be temporary as it is not a winning political strategy and Trump knows this. They will not be on for any amount of time to have long lasting negative impacts on economic growth or inflation.

Got anything else?

You've been here long enough to know the rules.

Did you and MOP get singled out to do the FBG Mod's bidding or is this just a voluntary undertaking that you two have committed to? Because increasingly, the two of you have admonished posters who have been around as long as you have for minor transgressions and I got to tell you, it comes across as brown-nosing like a hall monitor who so desperately wants to be liked by authority. Obsequious, even.

Nope. Just tried of watching good threads get locked because minor transgressions from long time posters have resulted in the Gaza/Israel and long running Gov't Employee thread getting locked. J has specifically said they aren't going to spend time punishing the offenders, they are going to lock threads. Not my preferred approach, but his business and business decision. He's the one who loses subscribers and revenue due to enforcing the rules. Several of us have been hall monitoring the Russia/Ukraine thread for years and it's survived. If we start blaming specific politicians for stock woes, then this thread will join the other locked threads. I don't want to lose this thread because I'll lose access to the thoughts of some pretty smart dudes in the market including you.

Hopefully people will stop mentioning Trump unless they are posting a news article/link and not adding commentary. Hopefully if someone doesn't do this and posts something polictical then rest of us will refrain for debate or atta boys.

But Bob Sacamano didn't mention Trump, did he? You took the liberty of interpretation here and I think that's unfair to him. And when you call out posters by saying things like "you've been here long enough to know the rules" it makes you look like a hall monitor, for lack of a better description. I've noticed a giant uptick between you and MOP calling out other posters as if you have some sort of moral authority to admonish your peers.

I'd honestly prefer you and MOP just report the threads that bother you so verses this performative public demonstration of loyal servitude.

 

[pecorino]

Markets looking weak, even before the open. I think we are still far from the bottom, but I will probably leg into a couple positions on another down day today. Accumulating more NVDA and buying back a quarter of my previous QQQ position.

ETA: NVDA down almost 30% off its high. Hadn’t noticed just how beaten down it was.

 

[[icon]]

Picked up a decent slice of SQQQ on 2/13 as a hedge in my non-managed account.

Been a fun ride (+24% in ~2wks) and has damn near offset the train wreck occurring in the rest of that account.

 

[[icon]]

Latest Atlanta Fed estimates put GDP forecast at -3% and falling fast.

Suffice to say a GDP drop of 3-4% would mean we’ve got a lot more room to move downward.

In a completely unsurprising move, Administration looking to change how GDP is counted to obscure the impact of their actions.

 

[pecorino]

Picked up a decent slice of SQQQ on 2/13 as a hedge in my non-managed account.

Been a fun ride (+24% in ~2wks) and has damn near offset the train wreck occurring in the rest of that account.

Love a cheap hedge

 

[Capella]

Odds they reverse course on these stupid tarrifs in the next 10 days?

Based on gut feeling? Low. Based on recent history? High.

It seems like every time we get into one of these ruts where we're thinking "oh this is finally it", a few days later we're back on and busting through ATHs.

Yea seems like this admin is constantly reversing course on these but maybe not this time.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

If you thought yesterday was bad.....

 

[ghostguy123]

If you thought yesterday was bad.....

did something ELSE happen last night or this morning?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

If you thought yesterday was bad.....

did something ELSE happen last night or this morning?

You can't have a trade war without the other side enacting their own.

 

[BassNBrew]

If you thought yesterday was bad.....

Actually I thought it was great. As mentioned above by @fruity pebbles

Nvidia now with the same forward PE as Coca Cola

I'll just keep adding on the way down.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Just bought some MSFT at 381. Forward PE of 25, hasn’t been much lower at any point in the last 5 years.

 

[Nugget]

If you thought yesterday was bad.....

did something ELSE happen last night or this morning?

Not really. Target added to the message that retail spending is soft. Crypto Bros don't like the strateic reserve plan. Tariff responses from USMCA partners and China. Maybe the crypto pushback was a surprise, but in general there is uncertainty and it will drive markets down.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

If you thought yesterday was bad.....

did something ELSE happen last night or this morning?

Political uncertainty (tariffs start today) and a step closer to a potential WWIII is still spooking the market.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'll just keep adding on the way down.

You may be chasing for a while. I get how "dip" days are good buy days, but this seems like something else than just a dip.

 

[BassNBrew]

I'll just keep adding on the way down.

You may be chasing for a while. I get how "dip" days are good buy days, but this seems like something else than just a dip.

Could be. I still have 35% cash to do so. I just remember the Covid period when people were pulling out their money and never got back in.

 

[Capella]

and a step closer to a potential WWIII is still spooking the market.

Is this just hyperbole? Do people really think this?

 

[ghostguy123]

and a step closer to a potential WWIII is still spooking the market.

Is this just hyperbole? Do people really think this?

IMO, it would be silly to completely dismiss that possibility.

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

Feels like something will be said tonight that'll shake the markets pretty hard. I'm on the nervous side. Parking 10% of my SPY funds into cash today to avoid the volatility.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

and a step closer to a potential WWIII is still spooking the market.

Is this just hyperbole? Do people really think this?

I'm not saying it's going to happen but history tells us the when there are multiple battle lines happening around the World simultaneously by the major world players, it potentially leads to a WW.

Do you really think it's not a possibility at this point? This isn't meant to be political but our President literally put that possibility of WWIII out there multiple times on live television, so it seems hard to just totally ignore that possibility.

Right now the market is surely reacting to domestic and World events - in addition to being a normal correction to some extent.

And I don't think and surely hope it doesn't happen but I think it's a factor in the current market.

 

[General Malaise]

Picked up a decent slice of SQQQ on 2/13 as a hedge in my non-managed account.

Been a fun ride (+24% in ~2wks) and has damn near offset the train wreck occurring in the rest of that account.

That, SDOW and VRTX have me green on the day. Nuts.