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Stock Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
At the point now when a 2% drop is a low volatility day
McBokonon
Footballguy
I don't even get out of bed in the morning unless the DOW moves 1500.
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
nvidia looking to be in a bad position as china is rapidly moving to develop in house chip development with tarriff moves. as china has demonstrated several times already, when they decide to build a capacity for in house support they do it and do so quickly.
point being, Nvidia may be on the cusp of losing the china market.
point being, Nvidia may be on the cusp of losing the china market.
Capella
Footballguy
I can’t, if somebody can give the cliffs notes.
Todem
Footballguy
Very important to understand….this point I cannot stress enough.
Do not let your political views cloud your long term investment judgment.
That’s all I am going to say.
Emotional bearishness sentiment is so strong right now.
Hang in there.
MTskibum
Footballguy
My worry is that we haven't even seen any of the bad effects of the tariffs.
When people start seeing these effects will the market continue to go down or by the time these effects are realized the market should be stabilized. On one hand the market is supposed to be forward looking, however the market didn't really start tanking until tariff's went into effect. So this kind of goes against the forward looking aspect.
I still think the market will tank caused mainly by NVDA and AI market tanking.
On the venture capital front as soon as they quit pumping money into these companies that will be a major source of income for nvidia that will dry up. Also, not just the venture capital. Fortune 500 companies today are investing in AI, however investments by fortune 500 companies is going to go down over next few quarters and software/AI teams are going to part of those cuts. This will further weaken nvidia's market.
www.fdiintelligence.com
- Inflation
- Reduced capital expenditure from fortune 500 companies
- Increase in US Debt due to 30 year bond interest rates
When people start seeing these effects will the market continue to go down or by the time these effects are realized the market should be stabilized. On one hand the market is supposed to be forward looking, however the market didn't really start tanking until tariff's went into effect. So this kind of goes against the forward looking aspect.
I still think the market will tank caused mainly by NVDA and AI market tanking.
On the venture capital front as soon as they quit pumping money into these companies that will be a major source of income for nvidia that will dry up. Also, not just the venture capital. Fortune 500 companies today are investing in AI, however investments by fortune 500 companies is going to go down over next few quarters and software/AI teams are going to part of those cuts. This will further weaken nvidia's market.
AI dominates venture capital funding in 2024
Half of all VC invested worldwide in the fourth quarter went to AI-focused companies
www.fdiintelligence.com
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It’s not just pure politics though - it’s also looking down the road at potential state of the economy under current policies.
Not arguing against “buying low” but this isn’t just any normal correction.
I mean not too much can be done but to ride it out.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
Bossman
Footballguy
I'm ready to dip my toes again but NFLX isn't cooperating so I'll need to look elsewhere.
Stopped in here to see what bargains people were shopping for... seems like everyone in here is expecting a continued fall? ... or just in "wait and see" mode.
Nothing worth a nibble?
Stopped in here to see what bargains people were shopping for... seems like everyone in here is expecting a continued fall? ... or just in "wait and see" mode.
Nothing worth a nibble?
Sand
Footballguy
Intel can't do it. AMD can't do it. No way China can just up and do this.
It's like saying China will just replicate what TSMC can do.
Todem
Footballguy
Fortunes are made in Bear Markets........let's leave it at that.
Todem
Footballguy
Downturns are never normal.
The uncertainty and headline risk is clearly driving this ship right now. Several pages back I stated my Bull/Base/Bear cases.
Unfortunately most people will allow emotions to drive investment decisions. It's a fact.
My point to everyone is.....really understand your goals, needs and act accordingly. And again do not panic. Stay level headed. And if you have cash keep DCA into this current bear market downturn we are in.
MTskibum
Footballguy
My worry is that we haven't even seen any of the bad effects of the tariffs.
- Inflation
- Reduced capital expenditure from fortune 500 companies
- Increase in US Debt due to 30 year bond interest rates
When people start seeing these effects will the market continue to go down or by the time these effects are realized the market should be stabilized. On one hand the market is supposed to be forward looking, however the market didn't really start tanking until tariff's went into effect. So this kind of goes against the forward looking aspect.
I still think the market will tank caused mainly by NVDA and AI market tanking.
On the venture capital front as soon as they quit pumping money into these companies that will be a major source of income for nvidia that will dry up. Also, not just the venture capital. Fortune 500 companies today are investing in AI, however investments by fortune 500 companies is going to go down over next few quarters and software/AI teams are going to part of those cuts. This will further weaken nvidia's market.
AI dominates venture capital funding in 2024
Half of all VC invested worldwide in the fourth quarter went to AI-focused companies
I see that bitcoin is up today, which I should point out that my prediction is only related to LLMsI. There could of course be some bitcoin related nvdia surge that takes up the slack in AI market.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
Well of course, but that's not what I asked. Feels like a lot of people are poo pooing this idea that we are headed towards a bear market. That means they either think we are stagnating and not really moving meaningfully in one direction or the other OR that we are moving toward a bull market. If you're of the former opinion, no harm, no foul. If you're of the later opinion, I'm merely asking for the evidence that we are moving in that direction. I don't see it. Financials mean very little in a situation like this one where emotion is ruling the day.
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I like UNH, AMZN, JPM, GS, DE. Looking for safety but also a chance at strong gains once the tide turns again. Chase quality.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I'd be looking at stocks outside the US or ones where foreign revenue is more stable currencies than USD dominate their P&L. GBP, EUR, CHF, etc.
Agreed. I just listed US companies but I’ve poured a lot into VWO and VXUS. Those are my top two international ETFs.
Todem
Footballguy
We are currently in a bear market by my account. The rip downward from the top has been quite dramatic. Bear markets can be quick as history has shown.
Self inflicted though…..prior to the Tarriff announcement fundamentals were still positive for full year 2025.
Were we due for a pull back? Absolutely.
Was anyone thinking we would see a self inflicted kick in the balls short term and if things don’t move in a meaningful positive direction it can be a longer period of pain and mild to moderate recession? Yeah.
We just had two amazing years and 4 out of the 5 last years were highly positive (despite the Pandemic panic).
Yet despite all this self inflicted pain we have a chance a window for lack of a better term to get out of this and still have a positive year and the base case I posted a ways back states that.
But right now? Pessimism is raging and dominating every headline and to me if you are long term you should be feasting on great stocks when they present themselves with great value.
I am still in the camp we will come out of this year positive……as crazy as that may sound to some.
I am not thinking the economy will be trainwrecked intentionally and that is what is being pumped daily on social media and the news.
So again…..opinions are like ******** and I think we will look back on this 6 months from now as the Tarriff Tantrum.
Good luck everyone.
Sand
Footballguy
The knights who say "NEE"!
General Malaise
Footballguy
$3,430/Oz gold.
In April 2020 when Covid was shutting us all down, it was $1,700/Oz.
I find this fascinating.
In April 2020 when Covid was shutting us all down, it was $1,700/Oz.
I find this fascinating.
Sand
Footballguy
This is at least a mini bubble, in my opinion. When the tariff dam breaks this will drop heartily.
Todem
Footballguy
It will be ugly when that corrects again one day.
Rirruto
Footballguy
Things I'm interested in:
1. The Meta anti-trust trial. I think Facebook sucks as a product and Instagram is AMAZINNG. Really hope insta gets spun off. I'm not sure I buy the government's theory of the case, but I'm hoping. Zuck et al clearly and unequivocally engaged in anti-competitive behavior. That's beyond dispute. But Meta as a monopoly? Not sure about that one. Zuck also has an ace in the hole. He'd hoped that relationship would get him out of the trial, but that influence can swoop in at any time.
2. How the market reacts to every day we don't have a trade deal. I sort of went in to the pause thinking it was the worst of both worlds. I think we may be seeing a 78 day period where the market throws a fit every few days as the deadline gets closer. It doesn't seem like the EU or China are even sitting at the table. The reports from the meetings with Japan cannot inspire confidence. I think it was the Japanese news + Powell news + being one day closer that gave us the market we had today.
1. The Meta anti-trust trial. I think Facebook sucks as a product and Instagram is AMAZINNG. Really hope insta gets spun off. I'm not sure I buy the government's theory of the case, but I'm hoping. Zuck et al clearly and unequivocally engaged in anti-competitive behavior. That's beyond dispute. But Meta as a monopoly? Not sure about that one. Zuck also has an ace in the hole. He'd hoped that relationship would get him out of the trial, but that influence can swoop in at any time.
2. How the market reacts to every day we don't have a trade deal. I sort of went in to the pause thinking it was the worst of both worlds. I think we may be seeing a 78 day period where the market throws a fit every few days as the deadline gets closer. It doesn't seem like the EU or China are even sitting at the table. The reports from the meetings with Japan cannot inspire confidence. I think it was the Japanese news + Powell news + being one day closer that gave us the market we had today.
Rirruto
Footballguy
I've been boosting gold for several pages, and even I agree with this. I closed my calls at +95%. I was confident the price would increase, but I'd be shopping for a beach house if I had any clue it would go this high this fast.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
The amount of people buying it through Costco and whatever is going on with international shipments have seemed weird to me.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I’m still trying to figure out Berkshire. It’s three largest holdings, which make up nearly 50% of the company, are down an average of 20% each yet the fund is up 12% on the year.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
Ok...thanks for the clarification. I agree almost entirely. All it takes is a comment and single action and we're back to where we were. The stuff with interest rates and the like is just a big distraction.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
The threats from China to those entering "negotiations" with the US didn't help either. I was kinda surprised that the comments were made. Clearly China smells blood.
KGB
Footballguy
Whats a stock to bet against gold?
General Malaise
Footballguy
To be fair, you probably said this when in hit $1,700 too.
General Malaise
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
I mean.....it was $2,623 on Jan 1 before this tariff tantrum so what's your figure when this dam breaks?
KGB
Footballguy
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
it won't happen overnight, unless they invade Taiwan, but china doesn't have a 1, 2, or 5 year plan. they have a 5, 10, 20 year plan.
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
Rirruto
Footballguy
Rumors of trade deal with Vietnam running wild on social media. Looks like it's totally speculation based on some clothing company/retailers having heavy trade interest before market close. Levi, Gap, Nike were vibing at the close. The past few market runups have seen heavy signs of insider trading. This seems like it could be at least maybe potentially could be another example.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
They might as well disband the SEC at this point. It’s basically useless.
Todem
Footballguy
Not a big gold guy…..I admit that.
Sand
Footballguy
$2,622
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So when is the next 10% green day? Asking for a friend...
culdeus
Footballguy
When the 90d window comes up and another extension is announced.
A lot of retailers are already saying April 25 is about the last day they can manage movement before the taxes hit.
WSJ this morning was pretty scathing on the tarrifs. The unraveling has really just started.
Sand
Footballguy
It's a relief rally - not much news here.
I will say it's pretty weird how bonds are tracking stocks at the moment - big rate rise yesterday and big drop today.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
this - we've seen a few days like this over the last three months and the next day doesn't look so great.
I nibbled on a few stocks that are still suppressed (AMZN. MSFT and VRT) but I don't feel good jumping in too much today with what tomorrow likely brings.
It's nice to see a green day once in a while though.
