Sand
Footballguy
Yes. Transactions are fast and very cheap for even very large amounts. Very low friction
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Stock Thread (37 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Likely they won’t have a choice
The Z Machine
Footballguy
So the ONLY way to buy Treasuries will be via stablecoins? And the goal is to force buyers into this cryptocurrency to generate more demand for UST? What if buyers are like, "nah, I'm not gonna do that, I'll buy Japanese bonds, or Eurobonds, or Frankenbonds." It feels like strong arm tactics.
Todem
Footballguy
Stable Coin is not a crypto currency.
It is a form of electronic payment and will definitely be the future of exchanging and paying in USD if things stay on this course. I can easily see the US treasury fully backing a USD stable coin in the future.
Unlike Crypto which is backed by absolutely nothing but the speculation of everyone investing in it.
Stable Coin = Intrinsic value
Crypto = zero intrinsic value. Basically digital gold, limited supply (Bitcoin)
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I agree with Todem our money is already digitized, it's like 99% of the way to being a stablecoin. It makes too much sense to just go that last 1% of the way and make it official.
Though isn't the risk with UST and USDC that the US government creates their own stablecoin? Again, it seems like it makes too much sense to not do it.
Though isn't the risk with UST and USDC that the US government creates their own stablecoin? Again, it seems like it makes too much sense to not do it.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I still really don't know how reducing the friction of buying/selling UST is going to massively pump demand for UST. It might help on the margins, but if the fundamentals of too much debt, not enough income keep trending as they are, the likelihood of default keeps escalating. Stablecoin vs. regular ol' auction? How will that change the dynamics?
Todem
Footballguy
I don't disagree with you...I am simply talking about how we pay for things and the delivery method of USD.
The National Debt....keeps rolling over and keeps getting refinanced.....and it will probably keep being done this way in our lifetimes....it's the next generation that may have the roosters come home to roost if we don't get some kind of control and pay it down....aggressively.
Sand
Footballguy
No, for sure not. But if the stablecoin market is 20T (totally made up number), then by the nature of how they would be setup the backing behind those stablecoins would be roughly 20T in USTs. Stablecoins are just another market, another demand, for treasuries.
Stablecoins are a cryptocurrency. The crypto part is the wrapper.
Stablecoins - UST (there are some EUR and gold ones, too) backed. So asset backed crypto.
Bitcoin, ETH, etc. - non asset backed crypto. These are priced purely on what folks think they are worth.
Yes, but there is huge resistance to that. If that were the case then the feds would have the power to turn off any wallet/set of funds they wanted to. And they would. It wouldn't be very secure, because this is the government we're talking about, so the trust issue is definitely there. There is a lot out there on a "fedcoin" if you look.
dancingbones
Footballguy
Starting a position TTD today @ just over $40 - no analysis here - seems like a bargain from when I last sold it north of $100.
Anyone have anything intelligent to say about TTD?
Anyone have anything intelligent to say about TTD?
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
I think this will help with money laundering/etc for cartels/etc, but my fear is that this only provides more reasons for other countries to try and use something besides the dollar.
culdeus
Footballguy
So I am now seeing "we aren't in a bubble we are building the next leg up infrastructure" articles. This is never a good sign.
Personally I think we "inflate" our way out of the issue. A dollar of debt from 2020 is now only 80 cents.
Capella
Footballguy
Seems like the whole market is hinging on NVDA tomorrow. Thought this was a fair article on the stock:
blog.portfolioparrot.com
Nvidia NVDA Valuation Deep-Dive: Is It Still Worth It?
Nvidia sits near a 4.6 trillion dollar valuation. This deep-dive breaks down its AI moat, market expectations, and three-year bull, base and bear cases.
blog.portfolioparrot.com
MTskibum
Footballguy
I think that the realization that LLM's will not be revenue generators will also sink in soon. The technology will become to commoditized as many companies enter the market.
The only hurdle with LLM's is ability to scrape data, and many more companies are entering that field, so much so that it is hurting the infrastructure of major websites that host data.
Hopefully this crash will also contain the LLM crash or else we will also have an LLM fueled crash in the future. Companies like OpenAI will be worthless in 2030, it is only whether it happens this year or in 2-5 years.
AI bots strain Wikimedia as bandwidth surges 50%
Automated AI bots seeking training data threaten Wikipedia project stability, foundation says.arstechnica.com
April 3 is my first bubble post in this thread. Although i have quite a few since then.
Is this it?
edit, my take on bubble has evolved quite a bit since then. I still believe what i posted then to be true, however circular funding, lack of electricity for data centers, and bad financial situtations in companies like Open AI and Oracle also now contribute to my belief.
Although. While I had a contrarian take in April, it seems every news site is now talking about this being a bubble.
MTskibum
Footballguy
Microsoft partners with Anthropic and Nvidia in cloud infrastructure deal
Microsoft has announced a partnership with AI company Anthropic and chipmaker Nvidia. Anthropic, known for its chatbot Claude, plans to buy $30 billion of computing capacity from Microsoft's Azure cloud platform.
apnews.com
They will keep this bubble going as long as possible!
Anthropic buys 30 billion computing from Microsoft, and to power that computing it will need to buy chips from Nvidia. So that Anthropic has the money to buy that computing, Nvidia is investing 10 billion and Microsoft is investing 5 billion.
VIX was at 40 then. Everyone was talking bubble and froth back then. Problem with chasing bubbles is that I'm up 61% since April. Between my cash position and 4% bear hedges the market would have to drop over 50% for me to not end up with a 10% gain on the year.I think that the realization that LLM's will not be revenue generators will also sink in soon. The technology will become to commoditized as many companies enter the market.
The only hurdle with LLM's is ability to scrape data, and many more companies are entering that field, so much so that it is hurting the infrastructure of major websites that host data.
Hopefully this crash will also contain the LLM crash or else we will also have an LLM fueled crash in the future. Companies like OpenAI will be worthless in 2030, it is only whether it happens this year or in 2-5 years.
AI bots strain Wikimedia as bandwidth surges 50%
Automated AI bots seeking training data threaten Wikipedia project stability, foundation says.
April 3 is my first bubble post in this thread. Although i have quite a few since then.
Is this it?
edit, my take on bubble has evolved quite a bit since then. I still believe what i posted then to be true, however circular funding, lack of electricity for data centers, and bad financial situtations in companies like Open AI and Oracle also now contribute to my belief.
Although. While I had a contrarian take in April, it seems every news site is now talking about this being a bubble.
You do bring up some strong points. I'm not as concerned about circular funding when many of these companies have such high margins. I'm a little more concerned about the companies borrowing money to fund the AI build. If I have time later, I'll share a graph on the rates they are paying. Bubbles correlate to the amount of risk premium these companies are being charged. As of last week that was headed in the wrong direction. The other thing to consider is that this AI race is so critical that the gov't will step in and keep the pump primed if the cash runs out. If the technology continues to evolve then the money will take care of itself. If it hits a wall, then you will be absolutely right about a mammoth crash.
culdeus
Footballguy
VIX was at 40 then. Everyone was talking bubble and froth back then. Problem with chasing bubbles is that I'm up 61% since April. Between my cash position and 4% bear hedges the market would have to drop over 50% for me to not end up with a 10% gain on the year.I think that the realization that LLM's will not be revenue generators will also sink in soon. The technology will become to commoditized as many companies enter the market.
The only hurdle with LLM's is ability to scrape data, and many more companies are entering that field, so much so that it is hurting the infrastructure of major websites that host data.
Hopefully this crash will also contain the LLM crash or else we will also have an LLM fueled crash in the future. Companies like OpenAI will be worthless in 2030, it is only whether it happens this year or in 2-5 years.
AI bots strain Wikimedia as bandwidth surges 50%
Automated AI bots seeking training data threaten Wikipedia project stability, foundation says.
April 3 is my first bubble post in this thread. Although i have quite a few since then.
Is this it?
edit, my take on bubble has evolved quite a bit since then. I still believe what i posted then to be true, however circular funding, lack of electricity for data centers, and bad financial situtations in companies like Open AI and Oracle also now contribute to my belief.
Although. While I had a contrarian take in April, it seems every news site is now talking about this being a bubble.
You do bring up some strong points. I'm not as concerned about circular funding when many of these companies have such high margins. I'm a little more concerned about the companies borrowing money to fund the AI build. If I have time later, I'll share a graph on the rates they are paying. Bubbles correlate to the amount of risk premium these companies are being charged. As of last week that was headed in the wrong direction. The other thing to consider is that this AI race is so critical that the gov't will step in and keep the pump primed if the cash runs out. If the technology continues to evolve then the money will take care of itself. If it hits a wall, then you will be absolutely right about a mammoth crash.
So where is the profit going? Nvidia takes profit and invests it into a no profit space. Seems not sustainable
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
VIX was at 40 then. Everyone was talking bubble and froth back then. Problem with chasing bubbles is that I'm up 61% since April. Between my cash position and 4% bear hedges the market would have to drop over 50% for me to not end up with a 10% gain on the year.I think that the realization that LLM's will not be revenue generators will also sink in soon. The technology will become to commoditized as many companies enter the market.
The only hurdle with LLM's is ability to scrape data, and many more companies are entering that field, so much so that it is hurting the infrastructure of major websites that host data.
Hopefully this crash will also contain the LLM crash or else we will also have an LLM fueled crash in the future. Companies like OpenAI will be worthless in 2030, it is only whether it happens this year or in 2-5 years.
AI bots strain Wikimedia as bandwidth surges 50%
Automated AI bots seeking training data threaten Wikipedia project stability, foundation says.
April 3 is my first bubble post in this thread. Although i have quite a few since then.
Is this it?
edit, my take on bubble has evolved quite a bit since then. I still believe what i posted then to be true, however circular funding, lack of electricity for data centers, and bad financial situtations in companies like Open AI and Oracle also now contribute to my belief.
Although. While I had a contrarian take in April, it seems every news site is now talking about this being a bubble.
You do bring up some strong points. I'm not as concerned about circular funding when many of these companies have such high margins. I'm a little more concerned about the companies borrowing money to fund the AI build. If I have time later, I'll share a graph on the rates they are paying. Bubbles correlate to the amount of risk premium these companies are being charged. As of last week that was headed in the wrong direction. The other thing to consider is that this AI race is so critical that the gov't will step in and keep the pump primed if the cash runs out. If the technology continues to evolve then the money will take care of itself. If it hits a wall, then you will be absolutely right about a mammoth crash.
The VIX only spiked to 40 when the tariff announcement came out. That was a sudden event type thing, not people sitting on talk of bubbles and froth. The VIX was 21 prior to the tariff announcement (had peaked at 26 a few weeks earlier), and that was with the market already down 8%.
Prior to the 8% drop the VIX was sitting around 17, so definitely wasn't reflecting high risk at the time.
Investor sentiment set a record for the most consecutive weeks bearish this year. He was firmly attached to the majority at that time.VIX was at 40 then. Everyone was talking bubble and froth back then. Problem with chasing bubbles is that I'm up 61% since April. Between my cash position and 4% bear hedges the market would have to drop over 50% for me to not end up with a 10% gain on the year.I think that the realization that LLM's will not be revenue generators will also sink in soon. The technology will become to commoditized as many companies enter the market.
The only hurdle with LLM's is ability to scrape data, and many more companies are entering that field, so much so that it is hurting the infrastructure of major websites that host data.
Hopefully this crash will also contain the LLM crash or else we will also have an LLM fueled crash in the future. Companies like OpenAI will be worthless in 2030, it is only whether it happens this year or in 2-5 years.
AI bots strain Wikimedia as bandwidth surges 50%
Automated AI bots seeking training data threaten Wikipedia project stability, foundation says.
April 3 is my first bubble post in this thread. Although i have quite a few since then.
Is this it?
edit, my take on bubble has evolved quite a bit since then. I still believe what i posted then to be true, however circular funding, lack of electricity for data centers, and bad financial situtations in companies like Open AI and Oracle also now contribute to my belief.
Although. While I had a contrarian take in April, it seems every news site is now talking about this being a bubble.
You do bring up some strong points. I'm not as concerned about circular funding when many of these companies have such high margins. I'm a little more concerned about the companies borrowing money to fund the AI build. If I have time later, I'll share a graph on the rates they are paying. Bubbles correlate to the amount of risk premium these companies are being charged. As of last week that was headed in the wrong direction. The other thing to consider is that this AI race is so critical that the gov't will step in and keep the pump primed if the cash runs out. If the technology continues to evolve then the money will take care of itself. If it hits a wall, then you will be absolutely right about a mammoth crash.
The VIX only spiked to 40 when the tariff announcement came out. That was a sudden event type thing, not people sitting on talk of bubbles and froth. The VIX was 21 prior to the tariff announcement (had peaked at 26 a few weeks earlier), and that was with the market already down 8%.
Prior to the 8% drop the VIX was sitting around 17, so definitely wasn't reflecting high risk at the time.
MTskibum
Footballguy
Investor sentiment set a record for the most consecutive weeks bearish this year. He was firmly attached to the majority at that time.VIX was at 40 then. Everyone was talking bubble and froth back then. Problem with chasing bubbles is that I'm up 61% since April. Between my cash position and 4% bear hedges the market would have to drop over 50% for me to not end up with a 10% gain on the year.I think that the realization that LLM's will not be revenue generators will also sink in soon. The technology will become to commoditized as many companies enter the market.
The only hurdle with LLM's is ability to scrape data, and many more companies are entering that field, so much so that it is hurting the infrastructure of major websites that host data.
Hopefully this crash will also contain the LLM crash or else we will also have an LLM fueled crash in the future. Companies like OpenAI will be worthless in 2030, it is only whether it happens this year or in 2-5 years.
AI bots strain Wikimedia as bandwidth surges 50%
Automated AI bots seeking training data threaten Wikipedia project stability, foundation says.
April 3 is my first bubble post in this thread. Although i have quite a few since then.
Is this it?
edit, my take on bubble has evolved quite a bit since then. I still believe what i posted then to be true, however circular funding, lack of electricity for data centers, and bad financial situtations in companies like Open AI and Oracle also now contribute to my belief.
Although. While I had a contrarian take in April, it seems every news site is now talking about this being a bubble.
You do bring up some strong points. I'm not as concerned about circular funding when many of these companies have such high margins. I'm a little more concerned about the companies borrowing money to fund the AI build. If I have time later, I'll share a graph on the rates they are paying. Bubbles correlate to the amount of risk premium these companies are being charged. As of last week that was headed in the wrong direction. The other thing to consider is that this AI race is so critical that the gov't will step in and keep the pump primed if the cash runs out. If the technology continues to evolve then the money will take care of itself. If it hits a wall, then you will be absolutely right about a mammoth crash.
The VIX only spiked to 40 when the tariff announcement came out. That was a sudden event type thing, not people sitting on talk of bubbles and froth. The VIX was 21 prior to the tariff announcement (had peaked at 26 a few weeks earlier), and that was with the market already down 8%.
Prior to the 8% drop the VIX was sitting around 17, so definitely wasn't reflecting high risk at the time.
I have specifically been calling that there will be an AI crash, both in this thread and the AI thread.
Nothing to do with general market. Now there are many articles talking about an AI bubble
However in the early part of this year and summer I was the only one posting about it in this thread.
60 billion in buybacks authorized.VIX was at 40 then. Everyone was talking bubble and froth back then. Problem with chasing bubbles is that I'm up 61% since April. Between my cash position and 4% bear hedges the market would have to drop over 50% for me to not end up with a 10% gain on the year.I think that the realization that LLM's will not be revenue generators will also sink in soon. The technology will become to commoditized as many companies enter the market.
The only hurdle with LLM's is ability to scrape data, and many more companies are entering that field, so much so that it is hurting the infrastructure of major websites that host data.
Hopefully this crash will also contain the LLM crash or else we will also have an LLM fueled crash in the future. Companies like OpenAI will be worthless in 2030, it is only whether it happens this year or in 2-5 years.
AI bots strain Wikimedia as bandwidth surges 50%
Automated AI bots seeking training data threaten Wikipedia project stability, foundation says.
April 3 is my first bubble post in this thread. Although i have quite a few since then.
Is this it?
edit, my take on bubble has evolved quite a bit since then. I still believe what i posted then to be true, however circular funding, lack of electricity for data centers, and bad financial situtations in companies like Open AI and Oracle also now contribute to my belief.
Although. While I had a contrarian take in April, it seems every news site is now talking about this being a bubble.
You do bring up some strong points. I'm not as concerned about circular funding when many of these companies have such high margins. I'm a little more concerned about the companies borrowing money to fund the AI build. If I have time later, I'll share a graph on the rates they are paying. Bubbles correlate to the amount of risk premium these companies are being charged. As of last week that was headed in the wrong direction. The other thing to consider is that this AI race is so critical that the gov't will step in and keep the pump primed if the cash runs out. If the technology continues to evolve then the money will take care of itself. If it hits a wall, then you will be absolutely right about a mammoth crash.
So where is the profit going? Nvidia takes profit and invests it into a no profit space. Seems not sustainable
It's over my head to determine where these investments are on their balance sheet. Are they claiming a value for OpenAI that's inflating their worth?
I'm off the opinion that NVDA is going to sell GPUs to someone regardless. Unless AI turns out to be a huge fraud, we are in inning one.
Investor sentiment set a record for the most consecutive weeks bearish this year. He was firmly attached to the majority at that time.VIX was at 40 then. Everyone was talking bubble and froth back then. Problem with chasing bubbles is that I'm up 61% since April. Between my cash position and 4% bear hedges the market would have to drop over 50% for me to not end up with a 10% gain on the year.I think that the realization that LLM's will not be revenue generators will also sink in soon. The technology will become to commoditized as many companies enter the market.
The only hurdle with LLM's is ability to scrape data, and many more companies are entering that field, so much so that it is hurting the infrastructure of major websites that host data.
Hopefully this crash will also contain the LLM crash or else we will also have an LLM fueled crash in the future. Companies like OpenAI will be worthless in 2030, it is only whether it happens this year or in 2-5 years.
AI bots strain Wikimedia as bandwidth surges 50%
Automated AI bots seeking training data threaten Wikipedia project stability, foundation says.
April 3 is my first bubble post in this thread. Although i have quite a few since then.
Is this it?
edit, my take on bubble has evolved quite a bit since then. I still believe what i posted then to be true, however circular funding, lack of electricity for data centers, and bad financial situtations in companies like Open AI and Oracle also now contribute to my belief.
Although. While I had a contrarian take in April, it seems every news site is now talking about this being a bubble.
You do bring up some strong points. I'm not as concerned about circular funding when many of these companies have such high margins. I'm a little more concerned about the companies borrowing money to fund the AI build. If I have time later, I'll share a graph on the rates they are paying. Bubbles correlate to the amount of risk premium these companies are being charged. As of last week that was headed in the wrong direction. The other thing to consider is that this AI race is so critical that the gov't will step in and keep the pump primed if the cash runs out. If the technology continues to evolve then the money will take care of itself. If it hits a wall, then you will be absolutely right about a mammoth crash.
The VIX only spiked to 40 when the tariff announcement came out. That was a sudden event type thing, not people sitting on talk of bubbles and froth. The VIX was 21 prior to the tariff announcement (had peaked at 26 a few weeks earlier), and that was with the market already down 8%.
Prior to the 8% drop the VIX was sitting around 17, so definitely wasn't reflecting high risk at the time.
I have specifically been calling that there will be an AI crash, both in this thread and the AI thread.
Nothing to do with general market. Now there are many articles talking about an AI bubble
However in the early part of this year and summer I was the only one posting about it in this thread.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yp2y8rdpro
I'll sum up his interview...
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
www.youtube.com
Just buy another share or two off the clearance rack. In 5 years when you are sipping on umbrella drinks on the Capellazon yacht this will all be a fart in the wind.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Google has almost caught Amazon for forward PE. Like 26 to 28.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I'll sum up his interview...
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
LMAO Nice
Right? I was hoping they would announce a dividend. Doge coin, something. I'm with GB BnB, it's not exactly on sale but long term hold for sure.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Microsoft partners with Anthropic and Nvidia in cloud infrastructure deal
Microsoft has announced a partnership with AI company Anthropic and chipmaker Nvidia. Anthropic, known for its chatbot Claude, plans to buy $30 billion of computing capacity from Microsoft's Azure cloud platform.
They will keep this bubble going as long as possible!
Anthropic buys 30 billion computing from Microsoft, and to power that computing it will need to buy chips from Nvidia. So that Anthropic has the money to buy that computing, Nvidia is investing 10 billion and Microsoft is investing 5 billion.
It's like that cocaine commercial in 80's. Do more coke, so you can work harder, so you can make more money, to buy more coke.
Of course in the 80's a lot of folks seemed to think of this as a PSA and took the "advice".
I don’t get it either. You’d think it was one of the safest AI stocks because it’s got the retail with Advertising and AWS is the largest cloud service. They are not big into the circular financing and already have the most data centers in place. They aren’t like Oracle hoping that their assumption of 10x sales in 4 years happens.
Didn’t they just have a great earnings report a couple weeks ago?
Capella
Footballguy
Oh I buy every month I just have to complain here about it since I have nowhere else to do it.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The problem is you're using logic and financials to drive your conclusions instead of memes.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
steelerfan1
Footballguy
in for 2 META and 2 AXON.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
The bolded is a really oddly timed thing to point to as a driver for a downgrade. They went from 3 to 5 around COVID iirc. In fact, in 2024 they extended the 5 years to 6 years, and effective this year they're shortening it back to the 5 year estimate. So the increased time for depreciation is less impactful now than it was before the downgrade. Unless they're just now updating their model to reflect a 5 year old practice, which isn't really confidence inspiring.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
This is similar to an argument of Burry and others where it is estimated the weighted useful life of these GPUs to be more like 2-3 years.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Gotcha.
Then say that. The comparison to 5 year old practices is meaningless on its own.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Man are the sports wagering and prediction markets colliding. Fanduel and DKNG have left the American Gaming Association and have both entered prediction markets with recent buys.
Just watched an interview with the CEO of CME at the last LPGA event of the year (and highest purse -- winner gets 4 mil!) in Naples. Anyway, he announced a partnership with Fanduel.
How States deal with this new world remains to be seen -- the "big 3", Ca, Tex, Fla -- never got on board and watched a lot of money go to neighboring states. Regardless, it is obviously here to stay. In what capacity and who the winners will be is what remains to be seen.
Ultimately, he "predicted" all this ends up in the Supreme Court.
As an aside, I've been planning on selling most of DKNG in the new year (3 reasons for that which I won't bore you with). Then, move into Flutter/Fanduel.
Just watched an interview with the CEO of CME at the last LPGA event of the year (and highest purse -- winner gets 4 mil!) in Naples. Anyway, he announced a partnership with Fanduel.
How States deal with this new world remains to be seen -- the "big 3", Ca, Tex, Fla -- never got on board and watched a lot of money go to neighboring states. Regardless, it is obviously here to stay. In what capacity and who the winners will be is what remains to be seen.
Ultimately, he "predicted" all this ends up in the Supreme Court.
As an aside, I've been planning on selling most of DKNG in the new year (3 reasons for that which I won't bore you with). Then, move into Flutter/Fanduel.
Sand
Footballguy
Well, I can tell you exactly how Alabama will deal with this. We don't even have the lottery.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Just hit single numbers on the fear greed index
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Interesting article on Morningstar: Linky
The General
Footballguy
Tell me everything is going to be ok NVDA!
