Strategically infecting people (1 Viewer)

[ghostguy123]

Mentioned this in the other thread, but that thread is a disorganized mess.

Anyway, any thought on strategically infecting people?  For example, infecting and quarantining as many volunteers aged 18-40 as possible.   

99% of those folks wont require hospitalization.  Use cruise ships?  

Obviously I have no plan laid out here, but its an idea that I think should be seriously discussed by the powers that be.

 

[gianmarco]

No.

/thread

 

[SayWhat?]

No.

/thread

x1000000000000

 

[Apple Jack]

No.

Unless they are testing vaccines.

 

[Juxtatarot]

I don't even understand the potential strategy behind this.  Are you thinking they'd have an immunity after getting it?  I've read that they think people could be reinfected.  

 

[Ilov80s]

Mentioned this in the other thread, but that thread is a disorganized mess.

Anyway, any thought on strategically infecting people?  For example, infecting and quarantining as many volunteers aged 18-40 as possible.   

99% of those folks wont require hospitalization.  Use cruise ships?  

Obviously I have no plan laid out here, but its an idea that I think should be seriously discussed by the powers that be.

For what purpose?

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

 Are you think they'd have an immunity after getting it?  I've read that they think people could be reinfected.  

I think there's some contradictory information out there on this issue.

 

[ghostguy123]

I don't even understand the potential strategy behind this.  Are you think they'd have an immunity after getting it?  I've read that they think people could be reinfected.  

If this is true, then obviously dont dont do that.

Also if that is true, then the world as we known it is basically over

 

[gianmarco]

I don't even understand the potential strategy behind this.  Are you thinking they'd have an immunity after getting it?  I've read that they think people could be reinfected.  

The fact that young/healthy people can still die from this doesn't even make trying to come up with a reason for this sensible.

 

[Brony]

Take it easy Champ, why don't you stop talking for a while. 

 

[ghostguy123]

For what purpose?

If masses of people get the disease now and recover, then they wont get sick and spread it in the  future.   At least not by being contagious.

Infect the people who likely wont need a hospital bed.  Volunteers of course.  Paid volunteers.

 

[ghostguy123]

The fact that young/healthy people can still die from this doesn't even make trying to come up with a reason for this sensible.

I don't think this disease will kill as many people in that age range as the fallout from this easily could.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

LA Times article on reinfection

Scientists in and outside China agree that reinfection is a highly unlikely explanation for the patients who retest positive. They say testing errors are more likely to blame — either false negatives that resulted in patients being discharged too early, or false positives when they retested and were taken back into hospital.

Those errors could be attributed to contaminated test samples, human error while taking swabs, or an oversensitive nucleic acid test that detects strands of virus. When a person gets sick with any kind of viral infection, their immune system naturally develops antibodies that should protect them from contracting the illness again after they’ve recovered.

Even in cases where that immunity wears off, it shouldn’t be as quick as within a few days or weeks, said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, director of Hong Kong University’s School of Public Health.

“If you get an infection, your immune system is revved up against that virus,” he said. “To get reinfected again when you’re in that situation would be quite unusual unless your immune system was not functioning right.”

 

[KarmaPolice]

You volunteering to go first? 

 

[ghostguy123]

It's just an idea folks.  

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

It's just an idea folks.  

I don't think it's a terrible idea at all.

 

[ghostguy123]

You volunteering to go first? 

Yes.  In fact as a nurse I will take a nice paid work trip on a Corona cruise 

 

[ghostguy123]

I have also been saying for a while, I would rather get it now than 2-3 months from now.  

 

[DallasDMac]

Natural immunities happen over time. As more people get it, immunities will begin to develop. But I doubt that immunity happens after one round of infection. If so, most of us wouldn't need flu shots anymore.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

For what purpose?

 

[Kal El]

That doesn't sound like it would work, mainly because we still don't know the full extent of what the virus does, not to mention the risk of being a carrier anyway. Could something like that be done? Sure, once we know more, and if it's deemed to be an effective strategy. I'm not flipping that coin just yet.

 

[jamny]

I have also been saying for a while, I would rather get it now than 2-3 months from now.  

That I would agree with.

 

[Caesar]

So, I will assume that most of you who immediately dismiss this idea are also against the existence of a military?  Or maybe you are ok with there being a military, as long as we don't have to use it.

I perceive the idea as exactly the same as military service.  We understand that some percentage of you may not make it back, but that is a chance we have to take to preserve our freedom and our way of life.  

If people were willing to volunteer for something like this, and they were to get paid, with benefits and knowing that it could help to fight this thing, then tell me why its a terrible idea?

 

[bostonfred]

If this is true, then obviously dont dont do that.

Also if that is true, then the world as we known it is basically over

The world wouldn't be over.  Thr rate of reinfection almost certainly won't be as high as the initial rate of infection. The concern at one point was that the second time you get this is much worse than the first, but it seems that's not really known (as far as I know). 

Regarding "strategic infection", you're basically describing vaccination, but with live virus. It's not a terrible idea if they can't get a vaccine/ treatment in place, but it sounds like a vaccine may be available as soon as July depending on test results, and widespread availability of tests may make containment possible eventually.  

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

Natural immunities happen over time. As more people get it, immunities will begin to develop. But I doubt that immunity happens after one round of infection. If so, most of us wouldn't need flu shots anymore.

I believe the reasom we need flu shots every year is because the flu virus changes every year.  We don't know if that's true about this virus.

 

[Caesar]

That doesn't sound like it would work, mainly because we still don't know the full extent of what the virus does, not to mention the risk of being a carrier anyway. Could something like that be done? Sure, once we know more, and if it's deemed to be an effective strategy. I'm not flipping that coin just yet.

I agree with this as well.  Its not a viable strategy right now.  

That doesn't mean it will never be.  

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I'm a big fan of exploring counter-intuitive solutions to problems, even if they're just hypotheticals.  I agree that "let's infect everybody deliberately" is an interesting approach that's probably worth talking about.  But we also know this isn't going to happen, and given what I've read it seems like there's an extremely strong case against it. 

 

[DallasDMac]

If people were willing to volunteer for something like this, and they were to get paid, with benefits and knowing that it could help to fight this thing, then tell me why its a terrible idea?

The bolded is the issue. We have no idea if it will help fight this thing. In fact, if this virus is "different," it could end up doing nothing other than exacerbating the problem.

 

[Anarchy99]

Isn’t this similar to what Britain is going to try, just without the volunteering part?

 

[AAABatteries]

I'm a big fan of exploring counter-intuitive solutions to problems, even if they're just hypotheticals.  I agree that "let's infect everybody deliberately" is an interesting approach that's probably worth talking about.  But we also know this isn't going to happen, and given what I've read it seems like there's an extremely strong case against it. 

It seems if you could truly isolate/quarantine the people you infect then maybe but I’m not sure I trust that could happen.  

 

[Ilov80s]

Isn’t this similar to what Britain is going to try, just without the volunteering part?

Seems that way

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

The world wouldn't be over.  Thr rate of reinfection almost certainly won't be as high as the initial rate of infection. The concern at one point was that the second time you get this is much worse than the first, but it seems that's not really known (as far as I know). 

Regarding "strategic infection", you're basically describing vaccination, but with live virus. It's not a terrible idea if they can't get a vaccine/ treatment in place, but it sounds like a vaccine may be available as soon as July depending on test results, and widespread availability of tests may make containment possible eventually.  

I’d love to see a link about a vaccine by July. Feel free to tell me Google is my friend. Thanks for your good post either way. 

 

[ghostguy123]

It seems if you could truly isolate/quarantine the people you infect then maybe but I’m not sure I trust that could happen.  

Hence cruise ship.

We obviously dont know all the facts about the virus.  Seems like a great idea to get some volunteers and start this in an isolated location.  We all know there are people willing to take a nice chunk of change to go be a test subject.

 

[ghostguy123]

The world wouldn't be over.  

Everything we are used to would be

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Can you flesh out the argument a little bit?  What do we gain by doing this?

 

[lod001]

Bad idea.

I'll say this. We are lucky this is not a global killer. This is a huge opportunity to see if our plans can stop this. I've been saying this for days now and last night on TV, one of the specials had a guy stating the exact same thing. We need to make a full assault on quarantining. This is simply a test case and we need to pass this test or when a real killer virus strike we are all dead. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Can you flesh out the argument a little bit?  What do we gain by doing this?

Long story short, we gain a lot less lives lost and a much faster return to normalcy.  

 

[Bracie Smathers]

It is already been done with the regular flu.

This from a few months back in November.

Researchers are paying volunteers $3,300 to be infected with the flu

Researchers are turning sick day into pay day for volunteers who will be infected with the influenza virus as part of a study on how our bodies combat the seasonal illness.

As many as 80 people aged 18 to 50 will get paid $3,300 to inhale a nasal spray containing Influenza A, or the common H1N1 strain, which produces mild to moderate symptoms, according to US News & World Report.

They’ll then spend at least a week holed up in a clinic where they’ll be closely monitored with blood samples and nasal and throat swabs to track “initiation, size and duration of various immune system responses and to detect virus shedding,” according to the National Institutes of Health.

Go to the link for the full reaad.

Using cruise ships? 

I suspect its already been done without consent since unique strain have popped up on cruise ships.  Perfect  Petrie dish, captive population, timed incubation period.  Perfect controlled environment.

 

[lod001]

Next time one of these pops up in China, it's shut the borders and if you are outside, you are on your own.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I get that's what you're saying, but how does this actually work?  What's the mechanism here that saves lives?

 

[ghostguy123]

Bad idea.

I'll say this. We are lucky this is not a global killer. This is a huge opportunity to see if our plans can stop this. I've been saying this for days now and last night on TV, one of the specials had a guy stating the exact same thing. We need to make a full assault on quarantining. This is simply a test case and we need to pass this test or when a real killer virus strike we are all dead. 

When a real killer virus strikes we ARE all dead.

 

[ghostguy123]

I get that's what you're saying, but how does this actually work?  What's the mechanism here that saves lives?

It's not a problem for hospitals right now, but WILL be.  Lots of people will die who would have otherwise survived because they cant get medical care.

We can speed up the process of people being immune, hence less spreading, hence more medical availability for more people.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Next time one of these pops up in China, it's shut the borders and if you are outside, you are on your own.

Or we could start testing immediately and track contacts of the initial positives.  Just as effective, far lower cost.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

It's not a problem for hospitals right now, but WILL be.  Lots of people will die who would have otherwise survived because they cant get medical care.

We can speed up the process of people being immune, hence less spreading, hence more medical availability for more people.

Thanks.  Not sure I agree with the logic, but appreciate you unpacking it.

 

[Anarchy99]

I get that's what you're saying, but how does this actually work?  What's the mechanism here that saves lives?

The theory is that it speeds the recovery process and would create a community immunity. Britain has determined it’s too late to quarantine, isolate, or lock things down so the next option is to have people catch it and get over it. The old and sick would be dying over it regardless. At some point, those that recover would be immune  and that would stop the spread in its tracks. But it becomes a case of survival of the fittest, and if you are on the wrong side of the severe case line you aren’t going to make it. At least that’s how I see it based on what I read. 

 

[bostonfred]

Can you flesh out the argument a little bit?  What do we gain by doing this?

It's basically a vaccine with live virus. If you can't get this twice (and don't become contagious if you get it a second time) then having low risk people get it early is basically the same thing as having people get a flu shot except they actually get sick. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Thanks.  Not sure I agree with the logic, but appreciate you unpacking it.

There's a lot more to it than that.  

Mostly the civil unrest this virus could easily cause, which could easily kill more people than the virus itself

 

[ghostguy123]

The theory is that it speeds the recovery process and would create a community immunity. Britain has determined it’s too late to quarantine, isolate, or lock things down so the next option is to have people catch it an get over it. The old and sick would be dying over it regardless. At some point, those that recover would be immune  and that would stop the spread in its tracks. But it becomes a case of survival of the fittest, and if you are on the wrong side of the severe case line you aren’t going to make it. At least that’s how I see it based on what I read. 

This could prevent many old people from getting it in the first place, but if they do, there would be a greater chance they get the care they need

 

[ghostguy123]

It's basically a vaccine with live virus. If you can't get this twice (and don't become contagious if you get it a second time) then having low risk people get it early is basically the same thing as having people get a flu shot except they actually get sick. 

Vaccines actually kill a small percentage of people also.  

 

[bostonfred]

I’d love to see a link about a vaccine by July. Feel free to tell me Google is my friend. Thanks for your good post either way. 

There's a bunch of articles out there that discuss different timelines but the range is from about 4 months (July) to a little over a year. 

One of the big questions is whether we need animal testing. Normally the answer is definitively yes, but that appears likely to be skipped in some trials because so many researchers are racing to be first.  

Then they need to go to clinical trials and perform a bunch of tests before they know if it's safe for human use.  That's almost certainly going to be fast tracked by this administration and most other countries as well. 

Once a vaccine is available, they need to start manufacturing it, which also takes time, and distribution is going to be a mess because the demand will probably still be high.  Hopefully they'll triage the vaccine to make sure high risk individuals get it first, but in the US the answer could be that it's just really expensive at first.