Strategies for selecting a MNF point total in pick'em pools (1 Viewer)

[SkyRattlers]

My FIL invited me to be his partner in his NFL pick'em pool that he has been part of for like 40 years. But he insisted I make all the picks. Well after two weeks we sit on top of the pool after outright winning both weeks. My competitive streak has kicked in and I fell down the rabbit hole of pick'em strategies.

My question to all you fine folks is do you have a strategy for choosing your MNF total points number?

Is it better to choose numbers closer to the low or high rather than in the middle. ie. where Vegas sets the line. This past week going into MNF I had 45 total points and the 3 other teams were 48, 48, and 55. I felt really good about my prospects because I owned 46 points and lower (Vegas line was 47 or so) and my three competitors had to share the over. I feel like choosing a number that can give me that kind of edge has more value that getting caught in the middle of the pack and therefore needing a very narrow window to come away with the win.

Thoughts?

 

[Gally]

Part of it depends on whether or not you are playing price is right rules or not. In general, the easiest thing to do is just go with the Vegas number. I mean, they make a living off of being right about that number so use their expertise.

 

[El Floppo]

Step one, put your **** in the box.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Part of it depends on whether or not you are playing price is right rules or not. In general, the easiest thing to do is just go with the Vegas number. I mean, they make a living off of being right about that number so use their expertise.

Pretty much this. But I might move it a little one way or the other for a "more logical" score. If the Total is 46 and the spread is 3, I might go with 45 (24-21).

 

[Zow]

Depends, if at best I am looking at a tie (i.e. choosing an underdog in the hopes I get a tie for 1st) then I usually go with a standard deviation or two above the Vegas number. Otherwise, if I think a tie is my worst case or I'm only going to tie with one or two other players, I hover around the Vegas number.

 

[Zow]

Part of it depends on whether or not you are playing price is right rules or not. In general, the easiest thing to do is just go with the Vegas number. I mean, they make a living off of being right about that number so use their expertise.

The problem with this is that your odds of winning if there is say 5+ other owners (with several inevitably picking a number right around yours) is that then you almost have to hit it exact whereas you can be afforded more variance with a higher or lower end score.

 

[Gally]

Part of it depends on whether or not you are playing price is right rules or not. In general, the easiest thing to do is just go with the Vegas number. I mean, they make a living off of being right about that number so use their expertise.

The problem with this is that your odds of winning if there is say 5+ other owners (with several inevitably picking a number right around yours) is that then you almost have to hit it exact whereas you can be afforded more variance with a higher or lower end score.

well ideally you want to be on either end depending on if you think it will higher or lower than the number. That way you get everything up to (or after) your number. Kind of like bidding $1 if you think everyone overbid or picking one dollar over if you think they are all underbid. That gives you the most variance for sure.

But if it's all anonymous that's hard to ensure. Depending on the format, rarely does it come down to the tie break for these pick em pools and you are really only against one or two other people typically so going with the Vegas number (plus or minus a couple) is a good strategy.

 

[SkyRattlers]

Part of it depends on whether or not you are playing price is right rules or not. In general, the easiest thing to do is just go with the Vegas number. I mean, they make a living off of being right about that number so use their expertise.

The problem with this is that your odds of winning if there is say 5+ other owners (with several inevitably picking a number right around yours) is that then you almost have to hit it exact whereas you can be afforded more variance with a higher or lower end score.

well ideally you want to be on either end depending on if you think it will higher or lower than the number. That way you get everything up to (or after) your number. Kind of like bidding $1 if you think everyone overbid or picking one dollar over if you think they are all underbid. That gives you the most variance for sure.

But if it's all anonymous that's hard to ensure. Depending on the format, rarely does it come down to the tie break for these pick em pools and you are really only against one or two other people typically so going with the Vegas number (plus or minus a couple) is a good strategy.

Well I'm new to this pool but so far I've had to win both weeks based on the MNF tiebreaker. There were 3 of us tied the first week and 4 tied in the 2nd week.

With 27 entries its not a large pool but I'd still expect almost every week to have atleast two people tied for the best record that week.

 

[TheAristocrat]

Roll 10d8