Strategory for auction draft? (1 Viewer)

[Willowdoc]

Ok. I am going to be the contrarian here. Actually, all the above advice is great for people who have been in auctions for a few years, but competing against experienced auction players is a different kettle of fish. For some reason, I am far more successful in auctions then in traditional ff. I think it has to do with my preperation.

Unlike snake drafts where you can tier players, to be excellent at auctions you MUST have some sort of projections, at least of the top 100 players. Simply put, you do not know where the bargains are going to be and if you don't have a real idea of the value of players, you will let them pass you. Believe it or not, the best bargain of the auction might be LT, but if you aren't prepared, you wont know it.

Here is what I do:

1. Prepare my projections and put them into DD or a similar program.

2. Look at past drafts, count the number of players who were bought for $1 or $2. The numbers in my leagues has remained remarkably consistent over the years.

3. Take the total money available for all players: say $100 per team each drafting 20 players = $1000 available (10 team league) and subtract 1.3$ for each player. This works out to 267 in my example.

4. remove the number of players who sell for 1 or 2$ from the pool. In my leagues they average 55% or so, leaving 90 players who will split the $733 available.

5. I then use DD and set relatively high baselines (I plan on using my data from past years to see if I can do a better baseline for this year). I may even set the kicker baseline at 2 or 3 if necessary to note that most kickers are $1 players.

6. DD then calculates auction values. This is the true value I set for the player (they are my projections). Using DD at the draft, my values will always be dynamic. You have to adjust otherwise your bargains will be Cedric Benson, Brandon Jacobs and Ahman Green - all at great values, but nothing that will win the championship for you.

For the top 5 or so players (whomever is in my first tier really) I will pay full value for these players. If LT is 34$ in my projections, I will pay up to that for him, but I will never go over my projections in the first 1/3 of players drafted. For players in the next tier - top 20 or so, I will pay 95% of my value, then anyone else in my top 60 or so I will pay 85 - 90% of my calculated value. I always end up with the top running backs I seem to dislike (like everyone else), last year it was Tiki and Rudi, both bought in the 1st round of the draft and both for 85% of my value. This year I am betting I end up with SA because people just don't like him, so they bid short on him.

You can't win an auction league with a team full of midlevel bargains, because the guy who gets LT, will also get a couple of 3rd round value players and some cheap players that would go in the 5th/6th rounds in a snake. You have to get someone who you would draft in the 1st round, even if its Maroney (though if you do that, you need to have someone else who would be equivilant of your 2nd round).

Finally a word about Qbs, in the first few years of our leagues top QBs were always overpaid, now the best bargains are QBs. Everyone thinks they have a great sleeper in Cutler or Rivers or whomever, so they let palmer or Brady and especially McNabb go for a song. Especially early in drafts. Noone wants to spend their money on a QB when they still have to get their RB. I use the 85% mark for all my QBs regardless of how good they are.

Hope that helps, though it may not in an inexperienced league.

 

[treat88]

One note - don't try to be the "enforcer". Seen this happen a couple of times.Don't worry too much about other people getting "bargains" - worry about who you want, and getting them at good price.

My league uses a slow auction, so the dynamics are different but...A guy rostered Young, Brady, and McNabb trying to price enforce. Cost him about 40% of his cap.

 

[jdoggydogg]

8) A Tip Regarding Kickers. DON'T NOMINATE THE KICKER THAT YOU ACTUALLY WANT!

Why nominate any player you want at any position? I wrote a guest article for FBG last year regarding dynasty auctions asking this question. Auction drafts are complex. There's lots to remember. There's no guarantee that every player is accounted for by every owner, and you don't want to help another owner refresh his memory. NEVER NOMINATE A PLAYER YOU WANT.

 

[FantasyTrader]

8) A Tip Regarding Kickers. DON'T NOMINATE THE KICKER THAT YOU ACTUALLY WANT!

Why nominate any player you want at any position? I wrote a guest article for FBG last year regarding dynasty auctions asking this question. Auction drafts are complex. There's lots to remember. There's no guarantee that every player is accounted for by every owner, and you don't want to help another owner refresh his memory. NEVER NOMINATE A PLAYER YOU WANT.

I'm not sure I'm following you. Wouldn't the other owner's memory be "refreshed" regardless of who nominates the player, be it you or someone else?

 

[jdoggydogg]

8) A Tip Regarding Kickers. DON'T NOMINATE THE KICKER THAT YOU ACTUALLY WANT!

Why nominate any player you want at any position? I wrote a guest article for FBG last year regarding dynasty auctions asking this question. Auction drafts are complex. There's lots to remember. There's no guarantee that every player is accounted for by every owner, and you don't want to help another owner refresh his memory. NEVER NOMINATE A PLAYER YOU WANT.

I'm not sure I'm following you. Wouldn't the other owner's memory be "refreshed" regardless of who nominates the player, be it you or someone else?

Here's what I am saying: there is no reason to nominate a player you want. Players can slip through the cracks in an auction (especially a dynasty redraft). There is no reason to ever nominate a player you want. Ideally, you are netting every player on your list for the least amount of money. So since players go for more early than they would late, it always makes sense to let your coveted players slip as far as possible.

 

[FantasyTrader]

8) A Tip Regarding Kickers. DON'T NOMINATE THE KICKER THAT YOU ACTUALLY WANT!

Why nominate any player you want at any position? I wrote a guest article for FBG last year regarding dynasty auctions asking this question. Auction drafts are complex. There's lots to remember. There's no guarantee that every player is accounted for by every owner, and you don't want to help another owner refresh his memory. NEVER NOMINATE A PLAYER YOU WANT.

I'm not sure I'm following you. Wouldn't the other owner's memory be "refreshed" regardless of who nominates the player, be it you or someone else?

Here's what I am saying: there is no reason to nominate a player you want. Players can slip through the cracks in an auction (especially a dynasty redraft). There is no reason to ever nominate a player you want. Ideally, you are netting every player on your list for the least amount of money. So since players go for more early than they would late, it always makes sense to let your coveted players slip as far as possible.

Okay, I'll buy that.

 

[coolnerd]

8) A Tip Regarding Kickers. DON'T NOMINATE THE KICKER THAT YOU ACTUALLY WANT!

Why nominate any player you want at any position? I wrote a guest article for FBG last year regarding dynasty auctions asking this question. Auction drafts are complex. There's lots to remember. There's no guarantee that every player is accounted for by every owner, and you don't want to help another owner refresh his memory. NEVER NOMINATE A PLAYER YOU WANT.

I'm not sure I'm following you. Wouldn't the other owner's memory be "refreshed" regardless of who nominates the player, be it you or someone else?

Here's what I am saying: there is no reason to nominate a player you want. Players can slip through the cracks in an auction (especially a dynasty redraft). There is no reason to ever nominate a player you want. Ideally, you are netting every player on your list for the least amount of money. So since players go for more early than they would late, it always makes sense to let your coveted players slip as far as possible.

The biggest mistake anyone can make in an auction is ALWAYS or NEVER. Good players are looking for patterns of behavior and will take advantage you not mixing your playing style.

 

[jdoggydogg]

8) A Tip Regarding Kickers. DON'T NOMINATE THE KICKER THAT YOU ACTUALLY WANT!

Why nominate any player you want at any position? I wrote a guest article for FBG last year regarding dynasty auctions asking this question. Auction drafts are complex. There's lots to remember. There's no guarantee that every player is accounted for by every owner, and you don't want to help another owner refresh his memory. NEVER NOMINATE A PLAYER YOU WANT.

I'm not sure I'm following you. Wouldn't the other owner's memory be "refreshed" regardless of who nominates the player, be it you or someone else?

Here's what I am saying: there is no reason to nominate a player you want. Players can slip through the cracks in an auction (especially a dynasty redraft). There is no reason to ever nominate a player you want. Ideally, you are netting every player on your list for the least amount of money. So since players go for more early than they would late, it always makes sense to let your coveted players slip as far as possible.

The biggest mistake anyone can make in an auction is ALWAYS or NEVER. Good players are looking for patterns of behavior and will take advantage you not mixing your playing style.

How will you take advantage of the fact that I never nominate a player I want?

 

[coolnerd]

8) A Tip Regarding Kickers. DON'T NOMINATE THE KICKER THAT YOU ACTUALLY WANT!

Why nominate any player you want at any position? I wrote a guest article for FBG last year regarding dynasty auctions asking this question. Auction drafts are complex. There's lots to remember. There's no guarantee that every player is accounted for by every owner, and you don't want to help another owner refresh his memory. NEVER NOMINATE A PLAYER YOU WANT.

I'm not sure I'm following you. Wouldn't the other owner's memory be "refreshed" regardless of who nominates the player, be it you or someone else?

Here's what I am saying: there is no reason to nominate a player you want. Players can slip through the cracks in an auction (especially a dynasty redraft). There is no reason to ever nominate a player you want. Ideally, you are netting every player on your list for the least amount of money. So since players go for more early than they would late, it always makes sense to let your coveted players slip as far as possible.

The biggest mistake anyone can make in an auction is ALWAYS or NEVER. Good players are looking for patterns of behavior and will take advantage you not mixing your playing style.

How will you take advantage of the fact that I never nominate a player I want?

If you never nominate a player that you aggressively go after, I won't bid heavy either. If my/your leaguemates see the same pattern they will do the same. Having a player you don't like at a "bargain" price ties up your roster, even if we are talking a handful of rounds left. Fantasy football has positions to account for, you may get a bunch of WRs you like come on the board with no QB you like nominated, at some point you will need to either a get a QB or nominate the guy you like. Also, if I already know that you are not going to really go after whoever you nominated, then that takes a bidder out of the process, so I may get the player that I want a better price, because I know that you won't join in the fun or if you do I am sticking you with a guy that you really don't want.

 

[Statorama]

One note - don't try to be the "enforcer". Seen this happen a couple of times. Player X has a set of values for, say, second tier RBs. If he sees FWP go for less than his value, he gets the notion that "nuh-uh, buddy, you're not getting a bargain like that!" So he bids up Parker and gets him. Then the same thing happens with Westbrook. And then Portis. And guess what? If Player X's values are a little skewed (not too hard to do), he's now got several players that are overpriced, that he probably didn't want in the first place, and he's doing bargain basement shopping the rest of the auction.Don't worry too much about other people getting "bargains" - worry about who you want, and getting them at good price.

I'm this guy, and I ended up with Heap and Shockey last year.Don't be this guy.

 

[SSOG]

The biggest mistake anyone can make in an auction is ALWAYS or NEVER. Good players are looking for patterns of behavior and will take advantage you not mixing your playing style.

How will you take advantage of the fact that I never nominate a player I want?

Sometimes nominating a player that you want presents value, so by NEVER nominating a player that you want, you're losing out on that value. That's like saying that you'd NEVER be the first person to draft a TE- if it's the 13th round and Gates is still sitting there, that "NEVER" is making you look pretty stupid.A good example of a good time to nominate a player that you want is when you like a player at the bottom of a tier or the top of the next tier down while everyone else is salivating over a player at the top of it. For instance, if you have the first nomination and you love Frank Gore, then nominate him. It's not like anyone failed to account for Frank Gore, so refusing to nominate him gives you nothing. You know Gore is going to go for big bucks, but you also know that everyone and his brother would rather have Tomlinson. If you wait until after Tomlinson is gone, then everyone who lost the Tomlinson sweepstake is going to jump in and try to nab Gore, instead. If you nominate Gore before Tomlinson, you effectively take several bidders out of the game as they'd rather wait and save their money for Tomlinson. The net result is that you get a player for cheaper than you otherwise might just because you nominated him early. As another example, T.J. Houshmanzadeh is likely going to be cheaper if he's the first WR nominated than he will be if he's the 10th WR nominated. A smart owner who loved Housh could easily take advantage of this fact, but not if he *NEVER* nominates a player that he likes.

 

[Hagger]

Auctions can be very hard to predict. I've been in a competitive auction league for 7 years now, and every year things go down a little different than the years before. I've seen premium players go for a lot early, like expected. But I've also seen people hold off on bidding on them early and save their money for later, and when this happens some lower tier player ends up going for an obscene amount because he's the best of what's left over.

Rookies tend to go for more than they should in general.

Homers can definitely be exploited. Know who people's favorite teams and players are. But be careful about bidding someone up too much, they'll catch on sooner than later and drop that player on you.

Some strategies I use in general are to rarely (not never) nominate a player I want. But it only works if you also get involved in bidding on many other players other people nominate. This way they can't tell when you're bidding for a player you actually want or not. Just be cautious not to get stuck with someone you don't want.

I also nominate the best players at positions I don't need early. For example if I own WR's that I'm already happy about, I nominate the best WR's available to force people to bid on them and burn a little of their money.

Nominate trendy players early.

 

[heckmanm]

8) A Tip Regarding Kickers. DON'T NOMINATE THE KICKER THAT YOU ACTUALLY WANT!

Why nominate any player you want at any position? I wrote a guest article for FBG last year regarding dynasty auctions asking this question. Auction drafts are complex. There's lots to remember. There's no guarantee that every player is accounted for by every owner, and you don't want to help another owner refresh his memory. NEVER NOMINATE A PLAYER YOU WANT.

So, if there's a guy you want, and nobody else nominates him either, you're SOL, yes? (Yes, I'm being a smartass.)

 

[Sweat Hog]

When a starting RB with high injury potential or in a RBBC is bought by another owner, as soon as you can, nominate the back up to ensure that the starting RB owner has to pay full value or higher for the handcuff - as opposed to waiting until the end of the draft and picking up the backup for less than expected value.

Prime example this year: Portis/Betts. In my league, right now Portis is valued at $18 and Betts at $3. As soon as Portis is bought, I'm throwing Betts out for his full value(because I wouldn't mind getting him at that price). If the Portis owner bids $4, I'll let him go and feel good about knowing he was overbid for - and as a bonus, Betts will take up valuable bench space which is at a premium in my league where we only have 5 bench players.

 

[Lehigh98]

Are any of you guys in auction leagues that also have keepers?

How do you adjust your strategy in this situation?

What young or cheap players are you targeting for potential keepers?

 

[jdoggydogg]

8) A Tip Regarding Kickers. DON'T NOMINATE THE KICKER THAT YOU ACTUALLY WANT!

Why nominate any player you want at any position? I wrote a guest article for FBG last year regarding dynasty auctions asking this question. Auction drafts are complex. There's lots to remember. There's no guarantee that every player is accounted for by every owner, and you don't want to help another owner refresh his memory. NEVER NOMINATE A PLAYER YOU WANT.

I'm not sure I'm following you. Wouldn't the other owner's memory be "refreshed" regardless of who nominates the player, be it you or someone else?

Here's what I am saying: there is no reason to nominate a player you want. Players can slip through the cracks in an auction (especially a dynasty redraft). There is no reason to ever nominate a player you want. Ideally, you are netting every player on your list for the least amount of money. So since players go for more early than they would late, it always makes sense to let your coveted players slip as far as possible.

The biggest mistake anyone can make in an auction is ALWAYS or NEVER. Good players are looking for patterns of behavior and will take advantage you not mixing your playing style.

How will you take advantage of the fact that I never nominate a player I want?

If you never nominate a player that you aggressively go after, I won't bid heavy either. If my/your leaguemates see the same pattern they will do the same. Having a player you don't like at a "bargain" price ties up your roster, even if we are talking a handful of rounds left. Fantasy football has positions to account for, you may get a bunch of WRs you like come on the board with no QB you like nominated, at some point you will need to either a get a QB or nominate the guy you like. Also, if I already know that you are not going to really go after whoever you nominated, then that takes a bidder out of the process, so I may get the player that I want a better price, because I know that you won't join in the fun or if you do I am sticking you with a guy that you really don't want.

Your bolded statement above isn't neccessarily true. You are going to bid on the guys that you want, regardless of my opinion. If I think that Shaun Alexander will go for far too much, I will nominate him early and hope fellow owners spend too much on him. But you aren't going to refrain from bidding simply because I nominated him.Understand I am just having fun discussing this. Certainly, I agree that speaking in absolutes isn't always the best strategy.

 

[jdoggydogg]

The biggest mistake anyone can make in an auction is ALWAYS or NEVER. Good players are looking for patterns of behavior and will take advantage you not mixing your playing style.

How will you take advantage of the fact that I never nominate a player I want?

Sometimes nominating a player that you want presents value, so by NEVER nominating a player that you want, you're losing out on that value. That's like saying that you'd NEVER be the first person to draft a TE- if it's the 13th round and Gates is still sitting there, that "NEVER" is making you look pretty stupid.A good example of a good time to nominate a player that you want is when you like a player at the bottom of a tier or the top of the next tier down while everyone else is salivating over a player at the top of it. For instance, if you have the first nomination and you love Frank Gore, then nominate him. It's not like anyone failed to account for Frank Gore, so refusing to nominate him gives you nothing. You know Gore is going to go for big bucks, but you also know that everyone and his brother would rather have Tomlinson. If you wait until after Tomlinson is gone, then everyone who lost the Tomlinson sweepstake is going to jump in and try to nab Gore, instead. If you nominate Gore before Tomlinson, you effectively take several bidders out of the game as they'd rather wait and save their money for Tomlinson. The net result is that you get a player for cheaper than you otherwise might just because you nominated him early. As another example, T.J. Houshmanzadeh is likely going to be cheaper if he's the first WR nominated than he will be if he's the 10th WR nominated. A smart owner who loved Housh could easily take advantage of this fact, but not if he *NEVER* nominates a player that he likes.

Well said.

 

[jdoggydogg]

8) A Tip Regarding Kickers. DON'T NOMINATE THE KICKER THAT YOU ACTUALLY WANT!

Why nominate any player you want at any position? I wrote a guest article for FBG last year regarding dynasty auctions asking this question. Auction drafts are complex. There's lots to remember. There's no guarantee that every player is accounted for by every owner, and you don't want to help another owner refresh his memory. NEVER NOMINATE A PLAYER YOU WANT.

So, if there's a guy you want, and nobody else nominates him either, you're SOL, yes? (Yes, I'm being a smartass.)

Obviously, I am hoping to nominate my guys late in the draft when owners have less money.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Are any of you guys in auction leagues that also have keepers?How do you adjust your strategy in this situation?What young or cheap players are you targeting for potential keepers?

My league is an auction salary cap dynasty league. So since we can potentially keep all the players that fit under our cap, you have to balance young talent vs. established players with high cap figures. I don't know about your league, but there are only a handful of guys in my league that are aware of the value of rookie talent. So accordingly, my strategy is to scoop up guys like Calvin Johnson for a decent price since he will be undervalued.

 

[Lehigh98]

Are any of you guys in auction leagues that also have keepers?How do you adjust your strategy in this situation?What young or cheap players are you targeting for potential keepers?

My league is an auction salary cap dynasty league. So since we can potentially keep all the players that fit under our cap, you have to balance young talent vs. established players with high cap figures. I don't know about your league, but there are only a handful of guys in my league that are aware of the value of rookie talent. So accordingly, my strategy is to scoop up guys like Calvin Johnson for a decent price since he will be undervalued.

We have a max of 3 keepers. ($200 total cap)If a player is kept, their price goes up by $5 each year.I got Bush at $45, Addai at $15, and picked up MJD as a FA (Counts as $5).I'm keeping them at $50, $20, and $10.Addai and MJD may be good keepers for next year but Bush starts to get closer to his actual and is less of a value.So I'm basically looking for a few guys that may have good potential to be that 3rd keeper (or even bump Addai or MJD) next year.Was originally thinking of Calvin Johnson, Peterson, Lynch, but they're pretty obvious and will go at a premium.Will also keep an eye on the Burner and how much he goes for, the LT owner is keeping LT for $75 so may not be willing to pay full value on Burner.So I'm looking for a guy that I can sneak in cheap but will be solid next year. Top RB's are usually worth the most ($50 - $70) so are the best values if you can get a deal on one in advance.

 

[coolnerd]

8) A Tip Regarding Kickers. DON'T NOMINATE THE KICKER THAT YOU ACTUALLY WANT!

Why nominate any player you want at any position? I wrote a guest article for FBG last year regarding dynasty auctions asking this question. Auction drafts are complex. There's lots to remember. There's no guarantee that every player is accounted for by every owner, and you don't want to help another owner refresh his memory. NEVER NOMINATE A PLAYER YOU WANT.

I'm not sure I'm following you. Wouldn't the other owner's memory be "refreshed" regardless of who nominates the player, be it you or someone else?

Here's what I am saying: there is no reason to nominate a player you want. Players can slip through the cracks in an auction (especially a dynasty redraft). There is no reason to ever nominate a player you want. Ideally, you are netting every player on your list for the least amount of money. So since players go for more early than they would late, it always makes sense to let your coveted players slip as far as possible.

The biggest mistake anyone can make in an auction is ALWAYS or NEVER. Good players are looking for patterns of behavior and will take advantage you not mixing your playing style.

How will you take advantage of the fact that I never nominate a player I want?

If you never nominate a player that you aggressively go after, I won't bid heavy either. If my/your leaguemates see the same pattern they will do the same. Having a player you don't like at a "bargain" price ties up your roster, even if we are talking a handful of rounds left. Fantasy football has positions to account for, you may get a bunch of WRs you like come on the board with no QB you like nominated, at some point you will need to either a get a QB or nominate the guy you like. Also, if I already know that you are not going to really go after whoever you nominated, then that takes a bidder out of the process, so I may get the player that I want a better price, because I know that you won't join in the fun or if you do I am sticking you with a guy that you really don't want.

Your bolded statement above isn't neccessarily true. You are going to bid on the guys that you want, regardless of my opinion. If I think that Shaun Alexander will go for far too much, I will nominate him early and hope fellow owners spend too much on him. But you aren't going to refrain from bidding simply because I nominated him.Understand I am just having fun discussing this. Certainly, I agree that speaking in absolutes isn't always the best strategy.

Not a problem...Anyway, i don't like my answer as much today as I did when I posted it. A couple other people gave better responses than I did.

 

[jdoggydogg]

8) A Tip Regarding Kickers. DON'T NOMINATE THE KICKER THAT YOU ACTUALLY WANT!

Why nominate any player you want at any position? I wrote a guest article for FBG last year regarding dynasty auctions asking this question. Auction drafts are complex. There's lots to remember. There's no guarantee that every player is accounted for by every owner, and you don't want to help another owner refresh his memory. NEVER NOMINATE A PLAYER YOU WANT.

I'm not sure I'm following you. Wouldn't the other owner's memory be "refreshed" regardless of who nominates the player, be it you or someone else?

Here's what I am saying: there is no reason to nominate a player you want. Players can slip through the cracks in an auction (especially a dynasty redraft). There is no reason to ever nominate a player you want. Ideally, you are netting every player on your list for the least amount of money. So since players go for more early than they would late, it always makes sense to let your coveted players slip as far as possible.

The biggest mistake anyone can make in an auction is ALWAYS or NEVER. Good players are looking for patterns of behavior and will take advantage you not mixing your playing style.

How will you take advantage of the fact that I never nominate a player I want?

If you never nominate a player that you aggressively go after, I won't bid heavy either. If my/your leaguemates see the same pattern they will do the same. Having a player you don't like at a "bargain" price ties up your roster, even if we are talking a handful of rounds left. Fantasy football has positions to account for, you may get a bunch of WRs you like come on the board with no QB you like nominated, at some point you will need to either a get a QB or nominate the guy you like. Also, if I already know that you are not going to really go after whoever you nominated, then that takes a bidder out of the process, so I may get the player that I want a better price, because I know that you won't join in the fun or if you do I am sticking you with a guy that you really don't want.

Your bolded statement above isn't neccessarily true. You are going to bid on the guys that you want, regardless of my opinion. If I think that Shaun Alexander will go for far too much, I will nominate him early and hope fellow owners spend too much on him. But you aren't going to refrain from bidding simply because I nominated him.Understand I am just having fun discussing this. Certainly, I agree that speaking in absolutes isn't always the best strategy.

Not a problem...Anyway, i don't like my answer as much today as I did when I posted it. A couple other people gave better responses than I did.

I hate it when that happens

 

[Statorama]

Are any of you guys in auction leagues that also have keepers?How do you adjust your strategy in this situation?What young or cheap players are you targeting for potential keepers?

My league is an auction salary cap dynasty league. So since we can potentially keep all the players that fit under our cap, you have to balance young talent vs. established players with high cap figures. I don't know about your league, but there are only a handful of guys in my league that are aware of the value of rookie talent. So accordingly, my strategy is to scoop up guys like Calvin Johnson for a decent price since he will be undervalued.

Mine is exactly the opposite. The guys in my league WAY overvalue rookies and don't pay attention to the yeoman like efforts of Jeremiah Trotter or Andra Davis for example.

 

[BigRed]

Unlike snake drafts where you can tier players, to be excellent at auctions you MUST have some sort of projections

And the reason you can't tier players in auctions or "must" have projections is......Sorry but wrong - you don't "have" to do projections. If it helps you fine, but IMO it's a waste of time. I don't and have traditionally drafted very well. (picking lineups is another story......)

Believe it or not, the best bargain of the auction might be LT, but if you aren't prepared, you wont know it.

There is absolutely no freaking way LT will be the best bargain of the draft unless you're in a draft with a bunch of morons who let him go for WAY WAY less than he should go for.

 

[BigRed]

8) A Tip Regarding Kickers. DON'T NOMINATE THE KICKER THAT YOU ACTUALLY WANT!

Why nominate any player you want at any position? I wrote a guest article for FBG last year regarding dynasty auctions asking this question. Auction drafts are complex. There's lots to remember. There's no guarantee that every player is accounted for by every owner, and you don't want to help another owner refresh his memory. NEVER NOMINATE A PLAYER YOU WANT.

Wrong. PKs are the exception. It rarely if ever makes sense to spend more than the minimum on a PK, so why not bid one up a little early and get (in your mind at least) the best one, since if the owners have a clue they know not to pay more than min. ie not bid him up?

 

[inca911]

There is absolutely no freaking way LT will be the best bargain of the draft unless you're in a draft with a bunch of morons who let him go much WAY WAY more cheaply than he should go for.

Depends on how well you calculate value. I believe that LT2 will be underbid in most leagues this year and likely the best bargain by far, followed closely by CHI DST and Peyton Manning. In a 10 team league, $200 cap, $1 min bid, standard scoring (VBD default), starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST, 1 K, how much do you think LT2 is worth?

 

[BigRed]

There is absolutely no freaking way LT will be the best bargain of the draft unless you're in a draft with a bunch of morons who let him go much WAY WAY more cheaply than he should go for.

Depends on how well you calculate value. I believe that LT2 will be underbid in most leagues this year and likely the best bargain by far, followed closely by CHI DST and Peyton Manning. In a 10 team league, $200 cap, $1 min bid, standard scoring (VBD default), starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST, 1 K, how much do you think LT2 is worth?

It doesn't matter and you miss the point. No way do any of those make the list, in fact they're well down the list as they are the most expensive players at their respective positions this year in nearly all drafts. Therefore, unless one of them has a simply ridiculously huge year like LT did last year - exceedingly unlikely - there is no way they will be the best bargain of the draft - and even then they probably wouldn't qualify due to their cost. It's more likely on an order of magnitude that it will be some player you can get for a buck or 2 who ends up a top producer. In fact, Gore was a better bargain than LT last year, despite LT's amazing season. It's not even close. Note: not the better PLAYER - the better BARGAIN.

 

[inca911]

There is absolutely no freaking way LT will be the best bargain of the draft unless you're in a draft with a bunch of morons who let him go much WAY WAY more cheaply than he should go for.

Depends on how well you calculate value. I believe that LT2 will be underbid in most leagues this year and likely the best bargain by far, followed closely by CHI DST and Peyton Manning. In a 10 team league, $200 cap, $1 min bid, standard scoring (VBD default), starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST, 1 K, how much do you think LT2 is worth?

It doesn't matter and you miss the point. No way do any of those make the list, in fact they're well down the list as they are the most expensive players at their respective positions this year in nearly all drafts. Therefore, unless one of them has a simply ridiculously huge year like LT did last year - exceedingly unlikely - there is no way they will be the best bargain of the draft - and even then they probably wouldn't qualify due to their cost. It's more likely on an order of magnitude that it will be some player you can get for a buck or 2 who ends up a top producer. In fact, Gore was a better bargain than LT last year, despite LT's amazing season. It's not even close. Note: not the better PLAYER - the better BARGAIN.

1. It does matter.2. I don't miss your point.3. You miss my point.My point is that most expensive players can also be the best bargains because people still don't bid enough for them based on their predicted performance. They know the player will be the most expensive at the position, but they stop short of the true value for the player. Yes these players are the most expensive, but that doesn't automatically mean the actual cost they command is aligned with their performance. If LT2's true value is $122 (scoring 169 points more than the 24th RB as an example baseline) and people aren't bidding past $80, then he is an amazing bargain and still the most expensive player in the entire auction. If Manning is going for $40 and his true value if $65, he's also a great bargain. If CHI DST is going for $9 and the true value is $17, you have another great bargain. The assumption that people bid enough even for the top players is not guaranteed to be true, and some amazing value often exists at the top of the positional ladder.

 

[Dudley Dawson]

Are any of you guys in auction leagues that also have keepers?How do you adjust your strategy in this situation?What young or cheap players are you targeting for potential keepers?

My league is an auction salary cap dynasty league. So since we can potentially keep all the players that fit under our cap, you have to balance young talent vs. established players with high cap figures. I don't know about your league, but there are only a handful of guys in my league that are aware of the value of rookie talent. So accordingly, my strategy is to scoop up guys like Calvin Johnson for a decent price since he will be undervalued.

We have a max of 3 keepers. ($200 total cap)If a player is kept, their price goes up by $5 each year.I got Bush at $45, Addai at $15, and picked up MJD as a FA (Counts as $5).I'm keeping them at $50, $20, and $10.Addai and MJD may be good keepers for next year but Bush starts to get closer to his actual and is less of a value.So I'm basically looking for a few guys that may have good potential to be that 3rd keeper (or even bump Addai or MJD) next year.Was originally thinking of Calvin Johnson, Peterson, Lynch, but they're pretty obvious and will go at a premium.Will also keep an eye on the Burner and how much he goes for, the LT owner is keeping LT for $75 so may not be willing to pay full value on Burner.So I'm looking for a guy that I can sneak in cheap but will be solid next year. Top RB's are usually worth the most ($50 - $70) so are the best values if you can get a deal on one in advance.

One way to guess at $ amounts is keeper leagues: 1. Take your best bet at who is keeping who for how much $$2. Add the keeper $bling$ up and subtract it from 2000 (this is the money left)3. Multiply this number by .75 (represents the % that players will bid for their starting lineup..adjust if needed) 4. Figure out the total fantasy points for the starting players in your league. I cut and pasted the projections from sites for the top 25 RB's, 25 WR's etc.. This is from my leagues starting requirements. For example, let's say there will be $1500 left after keepers, thus $1125 for starters. There will be about 6500 points from these top positions.5. Divide the starter points (6500) by the starter money ($1125) and you get 5.8. This means you should try to get 5.8 (or 6) projected fantasy points for every dollar you spend. If you think Your Mom will score 300 points this year, she is worth $50, which is what I paid for her. Obviously there is alot of fudge work here and I take out the $$ for qb, K, d's since they are different for me.An easier way:1. Take 3 RB's and 3 WR's that you feel confident about their value. Divide their projected fantasy points by their projected price and you've got a points per $ amount. (ex. You "know" that S. Smith will go for $40 and he will score 300 points in a ppr league therefore WR's should go for $1 for every 7.5 pts they will score and do the same for RB's)All this does is give me an idea when keepers are involved. The problem in keeper leagues is that if a guy is being kept, it's usually because he represents great value which throws the rest of the players out of whack.I realize that this a very crude method but it has helped me get a grip on player values in keeper auction leagues.

 

[Kai's Hero]

There is absolutely no freaking way LT will be the best bargain of the draft unless you're in a draft with a bunch of morons who let him go much WAY WAY more cheaply than he should go for.

Depends on how well you calculate value. I believe that LT2 will be underbid in most leagues this year and likely the best bargain by far, followed closely by CHI DST and Peyton Manning. In a 10 team league, $200 cap, $1 min bid, standard scoring (VBD default), starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST, 1 K, how much do you think LT2 is worth?

$86.00

 

[Nate]

Watch everyone else's teams, predict where they're going to spend their money.

Be one of the last guys with cap space. There's nothing like watching players with a ton of upside go for a buck or two more than you can afford in the late stages. Some are saying never to have money left over... that's a good general rule but don't follow it at the expense of being a player in the late bargains. I left 5% of my cap on the table last year but having money near the end got me unbelievable steals on Gore, Evans, and Kitna.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I blew my load on a few uber studs then couldn't bid on anyone until the auction was nearly over. I think my team has a good a chance as any other team.

 

[toxic]

 

[Sylira21]

There is absolutely no freaking way LT will be the best bargain of the draft unless you're in a draft with a bunch of morons who let him go much WAY WAY more cheaply than he should go for.

Depends on how well you calculate value. I believe that LT2 will be underbid in most leagues this year and likely the best bargain by far, followed closely by CHI DST and Peyton Manning. In a 10 team league, $200 cap, $1 min bid, standard scoring (VBD default), starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST, 1 K, how much do you think LT2 is worth?

It doesn't matter and you miss the point. No way do any of those make the list, in fact they're well down the list as they are the most expensive players at their respective positions this year in nearly all drafts. Therefore, unless one of them has a simply ridiculously huge year like LT did last year - exceedingly unlikely - there is no way they will be the best bargain of the draft - and even then they probably wouldn't qualify due to their cost. It's more likely on an order of magnitude that it will be some player you can get for a buck or 2 who ends up a top producer. In fact, Gore was a better bargain than LT last year, despite LT's amazing season. It's not even close. Note: not the better PLAYER - the better BARGAIN.

Exactly correct. It's sort of like with high-round draft picks - you can lose by drafting a bust in the first or second round, but you win based on the guys you draft in the mid- and late-rounds. My most expensive pick last year was Larry Johnson - and I did a lot better than the guy who bought Shaun Alexander. But Donald Driver was a lot better value for me...

 

[Warhogs]

A strategy I used last Sunday that has not been maentioned is after I filled up my starting RB slots and the pickings were slim but I was short on cap space I kept nominating the RBs left that I thought would command the highest bid. I wanted everyone else to get spent down to my level again as quickly as possible and why not have them spend the money on a position I no longer needed.

 

[ukshane]

The biggest mistake anyone can make in an auction is ALWAYS or NEVER. Good players are looking for patterns of behavior and will take advantage you not mixing your playing style.

How will you take advantage of the fact that I never nominate a player I want?

Sometimes nominating a player that you want presents value, so by NEVER nominating a player that you want, you're losing out on that value. That's like saying that you'd NEVER be the first person to draft a TE- if it's the 13th round and Gates is still sitting there, that "NEVER" is making you look pretty stupid.A good example of a good time to nominate a player that you want is when you like a player at the bottom of a tier or the top of the next tier down while everyone else is salivating over a player at the top of it. For instance, if you have the first nomination and you love Frank Gore, then nominate him. It's not like anyone failed to account for Frank Gore, so refusing to nominate him gives you nothing. You know Gore is going to go for big bucks, but you also know that everyone and his brother would rather have Tomlinson. If you wait until after Tomlinson is gone, then everyone who lost the Tomlinson sweepstake is going to jump in and try to nab Gore, instead. If you nominate Gore before Tomlinson, you effectively take several bidders out of the game as they'd rather wait and save their money for Tomlinson. The net result is that you get a player for cheaper than you otherwise might just because you nominated him early. As another example, T.J. Houshmanzadeh is likely going to be cheaper if he's the first WR nominated than he will be if he's the 10th WR nominated. A smart owner who loved Housh could easily take advantage of this fact, but not if he *NEVER* nominates a player that he likes.

This is exactly what I was thinking.

 

[jdoggydogg]

The biggest mistake anyone can make in an auction is ALWAYS or NEVER. Good players are looking for patterns of behavior and will take advantage you not mixing your playing style.

How will you take advantage of the fact that I never nominate a player I want?

Sometimes nominating a player that you want presents value, so by NEVER nominating a player that you want, you're losing out on that value. That's like saying that you'd NEVER be the first person to draft a TE- if it's the 13th round and Gates is still sitting there, that "NEVER" is making you look pretty stupid.A good example of a good time to nominate a player that you want is when you like a player at the bottom of a tier or the top of the next tier down while everyone else is salivating over a player at the top of it. For instance, if you have the first nomination and you love Frank Gore, then nominate him. It's not like anyone failed to account for Frank Gore, so refusing to nominate him gives you nothing. You know Gore is going to go for big bucks, but you also know that everyone and his brother would rather have Tomlinson. If you wait until after Tomlinson is gone, then everyone who lost the Tomlinson sweepstake is going to jump in and try to nab Gore, instead. If you nominate Gore before Tomlinson, you effectively take several bidders out of the game as they'd rather wait and save their money for Tomlinson. The net result is that you get a player for cheaper than you otherwise might just because you nominated him early. As another example, T.J. Houshmanzadeh is likely going to be cheaper if he's the first WR nominated than he will be if he's the 10th WR nominated. A smart owner who loved Housh could easily take advantage of this fact, but not if he *NEVER* nominates a player that he likes.

Well said.

 

[Gravedigger]

The comments on this thread are excellent. The beauty to an auction is that if you get some experience, you'll need to be paying attention to all of them all the time.

For your first auction, I'd suggest making sure you lay out some senarios. Auctions are very fluid. You can think to take two top 10 RB's only to find your other owners are driving up the prices of all of them $10-15 more than you considered. (I'm crying about this as I type)

If you have some 'team make-up' senarios already in your head, you are not caught off-guard when you find yourself with more money than you intended at the end, or no top 10 RB. For example, what would your team look like with Manning at 80% what you think he's worth? Or two top WR's, or two top RB's, or LT at any cost? Then, at the beginning of the draft, try for the team you'd 'love', and when your best laid plan goes awry, look at your senario sheet to see which one best fits what players you've managed to land after your first two or three.

I am a RB stud theory guy and nobody will ever be able to change that. However, I know what my team will look like if I end up with Manning because he was going for 80% what I thought he should go for. Having this laid out ahead of time helps you not panic.

The senarios I tend to have are '2 RB studs', 'LT at all costs', "Stud QB", "2 WR studs", "Diamonds in the Rough", "Quality ancillary positions", and "Well-rounded". I will stress, like others did earlier, that the best way to get a feel for constructing these senarios is by mock auctioning or just experience. Take the time to learn the ropes and it'll pay for years to come as others have to learn from mistakes they make one year at a time.

- - - - - -

Related, I would also suggest considering what you'd like to see if it were a snake draft. When you snake, how do you like to construct your team? Do you trade out of the first round for extra 3rds and 4ths? Do you trade up? With an auction, you don't have to trade - you just do it.

For example, here are what my league did in this years auction:

After the auction, I ranked the players from most expensive to least. This should be the order they would have drafted, right? (The number in () is the number of 'picks' that team would have had in the first 'six rounds')

(4) Team A: 1.01, 2, 3, 6

(5) Team B: 1.02, 2, 4, 4, 4

(5) Team C: 1.03, 1.06, 4, 5, 6

(5) Team D: 1.04, 2, 3, 3, 5

(6) Team E: 1.05, 2, 3, 4, 4, 6,

(5) Team F: 1.07, 1.10, 4, 5, 5

(5) Team G: 1.08, 1.12, 3, 5, 6

(7) Team H: 1.09, 2, 3, 4, 4, 6, 6

(5) Team J: 1.11, 2, 2, 4, 5

(6) Team K: 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 6

(9) Team L: 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6

(7) Team M: 2, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5

So, Team A had only 4 picks in the first 6 rounds. The first was the #1 pick of the auction (LT), and that left him with a 2nd, 3rd, and 6th. He's got three studs and likely nothing else. Team L, on the other hand, didn't get aboard the RB bidding and ended up spending money on deals only. I've seen both styles fail and both succeed.

I point this out to show that you can assemble your senarios still thinking like a snake until you get the hang of auctions. If you excell at finding mid-level RB talent, don't get caught up in the crazy early bidding. If you're terrible at finding middle talent but great and predicting early stuff, blow serious cash on a couple 1st round picks. For an auction, half the battle is discovering what YOU are good at, then customizing a tactic that lets you exploit it.

- - - - - -

It is difficult to predict what an entire league new to auctioning might do. However, over time, I've found:

Top 5 QB's go for what they are worth. Later ones are cheap as all get-out.

Top 24 RB's go for more than what you think they are worth. Plan ahead if you want them.

Top 10-12 WR's go for about what they are worth but no other position presents as smokin' of deals later.

Top 1-4 TE's tend to go for about what people project.

PK's don't go for over $3-4. Most go for $2 however since most people are willing to pay the extra $1 for the guy they like. I suggest putting your favorite one out for $2 and seeing if anyone is willing to go more.

DF's go for slightly less than what you'd guess. This is largely due to being such a difficult position to predict.

- - - - - - -

Lastly, I'd suggest saving $8-$10 by not getting a premier DF, and instead outbidding folks for two solid RB's. The $8-10 extra will allow you to spend $4-5 more than you thought you'd be willing to pay for two guys you like better, and who are more predictable. Everyone might say you overpaid, but if you find a decent late DF, and there are always several, your team is simply stronger. In essence, I'd be leary of any of the 'top tier' guys except, perhaps, at RB. You will get no deals on any of them (except for the comment someone made earlier that the first 1-3 RB's on the block tend to go for about what they are worth - while the rest go for more than they are worth).

- - - - - - -

Best of luck. I know of no league that has done auctions and wanted to go back to snake drafting. There is simply no subsitute for all players being within your grasp and for the dynamics of an auction.

 

[Defending Champs]

I have participated in some form of auction draft for about ten years now...HUGE fan of the system and have learned a lot over the years.

If it's been said before, sorry, I read most of the posts and enjoyed the heck out of them.

1. DO NOT leave money on the table. It will really make you made when you get finished and you look at your roster and you now see that instead of grabbing Ronnie Brown for $25 I could have had Frank Gore (insert name here) for the $10 extra dollars that you are still sitting on.

2. If you are stuck on a player...you BETTER put a personal cap on yourself. If you don't, you will be sorry.

3. Don't leave money on the table.

4. Know your owners. Someone mentioned the Steelers in an earlier post. I personally know the favorite teams of all my owners, I use it against them every year. We always have one guy that ends up with most of the Saints offense.

5. Don't leave money on the table.

6. I saw it before, but tisssss true. If you are trying to run someone up to get them to spend some money, don't bid more than you are willing to keep the guy for. It's painful to get stuck with your 5th run of the mill WR when you still need a TE etc...

7. Don't leave money on the table.

8. If you are a division format...pay very close attention to their team make-up and what $$$ they have left. It is a tremendous help.

9. And last but not least...Don't leave money on the table.

 

[Beef Ravioli]

Alright, I started this topic back on March 26th and my draft is tomorrow (Saturday) morning at 10. Thanks for all the help - it has been tremendous, as I have tried to soak it all in.

One last chance to give me and others some last minute advice. How about some sleepers that I can get real cheap and get some production (this years jones-drew please).

 

[Beef Ravioli]

Thanks to all who gave some input - here is how I did.

Thomas Jones - $11 First player drafted - did not intend on getting him, but thought it was to good of a value to pass up.

Stephen Jackson - $67

Roy Williams - $20

Shaun Alexander - $48

Reggie Wayne - $35

Matt Schaub - $1

Mark Clayton - $2

Jericho Cotchery - $1

John Casey $1

Owen Daniels - $1

Ny Giants - $1

Brian Leonard -$1

Greg jennings - $1

Patrick Crayton -$1

Maurice Morris - $1

Garrett Wolfe- $1

I decided to go big on a RB and WR and see what else I could get. I could of had TO for $39 but I stopped and ended up with Wayne - good or bad?

 

[matuski]

Thanks to all who gave some input - here is how I did.Thomas Jones - $11 First player drafted - did not intend on getting him, but thought it was to good of a value to pass up.Stephen Jackson - $67Roy Williams - $20Shaun Alexander - $48Reggie Wayne - $35Matt Schaub - $1Mark Clayton - $2Jericho Cotchery - $1John Casey $1Owen Daniels - $1Ny Giants - $1Brian Leonard -$1Greg jennings - $1Patrick Crayton -$1Maurice Morris - $1Garrett Wolfe- $1I decided to go big on a RB and WR and see what else I could get. I could of had TO for $39 but I stopped and ended up with Wayne - good or bad?

I'm guessing this was everyone's first time auctioning in the league?Some serious steals there (WR's), and a nice line-up..... except for the Qb postion (horrible).

 

[bigfoamfinger]

8) A Tip Regarding Kickers. DON'T NOMINATE THE KICKER THAT YOU ACTUALLY WANT!

Why nominate any player you want at any position? I wrote a guest article for FBG last year regarding dynasty auctions asking this question. Auction drafts are complex. There's lots to remember. There's no guarantee that every player is accounted for by every owner, and you don't want to help another owner refresh his memory. NEVER NOMINATE A PLAYER YOU WANT.

So, if there's a guy you want, and nobody else nominates him either, you're SOL, yes? (Yes, I'm being a smartass.)

Obviously, I am hoping to nominate my guys late in the draft when owners have less money.

Watch that stategy as well. If there are only a handful of decent players left and several teams have cash, that leads to over inflated prices. You just need to keep an eye on what everyone else has left and their needs. I think it really hinders guys that don't track the other teams dollars and roster spots.