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Stupid to go for two (1 Viewer)

Should Shanahan have gone for two, down 38-37 with 24 seconds left?

  • yes

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  • no

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timschochet

timschochet

Footballguy
I say it's stupid to go for two in that situation. Sure, it's gutsy, but it's also stupid. Kick the extra point, go into overtime. What say you?

 
I'm with ya Tim. I think it's a closer call than you make it out, but really simple math gets us there if we make a few estimations.

 
I'd like to think that Shanny knew the call that put them into that position was bogus, and he was giving SD a chance to stop them -- but I don't think of Shanny as that noble. Mind you, I don't think any NFL coach would have done it out of a spirit of nobility.

 
I already know the voting is going to be lopsided here, because it worked. But if it had failed, a lot of you guys would be all over Shanahan here. Remember, we're not discussing either the execution of the play nor it's result, only the decision itself.

 
But, they REALLY couldn't stop San Diego down the stretch.

With that, Shannahan controlled his own destiny in this game. If he lets it go to overtime, and SD gets the ball...I'm not sure they felt they were going stop them. He saw a chance to steal a win instead of delaying the loss.

 
If the Denver D shoved SD around all day, yes, it would have been a dumb decision. But they didn't - the way this game was going, whoever won the coin toss would win the game.

Gutsy.

 
Serenity Now said:
I'd like to think that Shanny knew the call that put them into that position was bogus, and he was giving SD a chance to stop them -- but I don't think of Shanny as that noble. Mind you, I don't think any NFL coach would have done it out of a spirit of nobility.
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Id like to think tat too. I hope at the postgame presser he says SD got screwed and he wanted to give them a fair shot at earning the W.
 
timschochet said:
I already know the voting is going to be lopsided here, because it worked. But if it had failed, a lot of you guys would be all over Shanahan here. Remember, we're not discussing either the execution of the play nor it's result, only the decision itself.
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And the decision was the correct one. Neither defense could get a stop. I'd rather have my offense out there to get 2 yards rather than hoping for a coin flip.Once again you are completely wrong tim.
 
A stathead might call it stupid if they aren't thinking about practical applications. The numbers might tell you that he has a better chance of winning by forcing OT in general. But honestly if a smart coach after seeing 4 quarters of football thinks that he has a play that has a HIGH chance of working against that opponent, he should throw the numbers out and go for it, IMO. If he sees a mismatch or a hole in the defense that can be exploited, that's more important than playing the odds. I say it was a good call.

 
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DEN was 2-3 yards away from the win, SD defense hadnt been stopping DEN, defense wasnt apparently stopping SD--why leave the fate of the game to a coin toss???

 
Jon_Moore said:
But, they REALLY couldn't stop San Diego down the stretch. With that, Shannahan controlled his own destiny in this game. If he lets it go to overtime, and SD gets the ball...I'm not sure they felt they were going stop them. He saw a chance to steal a win instead of delaying the loss.
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I doubt he believed that his defense could not stop the Chargers. Besides, with 24 seconds and no time outs left, SD is not going to score. So then you have a 50/50 chance to get the ball back. All this = a greater probability of winning than one shot at a 2 point conversion.
 
timschochet said:
Jon_Moore said:
But, they REALLY couldn't stop San Diego down the stretch.

With that, Shannahan controlled his own destiny in this game. If he lets it go to overtime, and SD gets the ball...I'm not sure they felt they were going stop them. He saw a chance to steal a win instead of delaying the loss.
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I doubt he believed that his defense could not stop the Chargers. Besides, with 24 seconds and no time outs left, SD is not going to score. So then you have a 50/50 chance to get the ball back. All this = a greater probability of winning than one shot at a 2 point conversion.
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Link to your math?
 
I thought the announcers were wrong.. i may be crazy, but i always remember it as "if at home,go for 2, on the road go for the tie"

you have the momentum and the crowd.. try to put it away. :shrug:

 
Charlie Harper said:
timschochet said:
Jon_Moore said:
But, they REALLY couldn't stop San Diego down the stretch.

With that, Shannahan controlled his own destiny in this game. If he lets it go to overtime, and SD gets the ball...I'm not sure they felt they were going stop them. He saw a chance to steal a win instead of delaying the loss.
Click to expand...
I doubt he believed that his defense could not stop the Chargers. Besides, with 24 seconds and no time outs left, SD is not going to score. So then you have a 50/50 chance to get the ball back. All this = a greater probability of winning than one shot at a 2 point conversion.
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Link to your math?
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I'm guessing, Charlie, though it's an educated guess. Does anyone know what the odds are of making a two point conversion in the NFL? Someone probably does.
 
What's the average for 2-pt conversion percentage?

Better yet, what are the Denver's (offense) and SD's (defense) percentages for and against?

(Where's Chase Stuart when you need him?)

 
timschochet said:
Jon_Moore said:
But, they REALLY couldn't stop San Diego down the stretch. With that, Shannahan controlled his own destiny in this game. If he lets it go to overtime, and SD gets the ball...I'm not sure they felt they were going stop them. He saw a chance to steal a win instead of delaying the loss.
Click to expand...
I doubt he believed that his defense could not stop the Chargers. Besides, with 24 seconds and no time outs left, SD is not going to score. So then you have a 50/50 chance to get the ball back. All this = a greater probability of winning than one shot at a 2 point conversion.
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I haven't looked at the numbers but I have to doubt the two point conversion is a 50/50 proposition.So I agree with you on this. It was a wild call. He got a bit lucky.
 
I liked the call, and not just because it worked. I would rather give my offense the chance to win the game from the 2 yard line than to chance all of the other things that can go wrong, not to mention the coin toss. I also like it because Cutler is the QB, and he's got the best rating from outside the pocket, plus he's mobile enough to score on a bootleg.

I wish more coaches would have the guts to play to win.

 
timschochet said:
I say it's stupid to go for two in that situation. Sure, it's gutsy, but it's also stupid. Kick the extra point, go into overtime. What say you?
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I think it was a good call, honestly.It takes some balls, but Denver wasn't stopping SD's offense at all.

You might think to yourself that the odds of them converting are less than 50/50, and that may be right, but Shanny (and any coach, for that matter) knows his players. He knows if they're capable of getting 2 in that situation, and he let his offensive players take over.

:shrug: I don't think either would have been a bad decision, but it's calls like that which help separate coaches like Shanny from coaches like Lane Kiffin.

 
Another statistic that would be interesting to know is how many coaches ever go for two in this situation. I'm betting it's extremely low, and that should tell you something about the wisdom of the decision.

 
Sure, statistically based on history you figure it was a bad call, because the conversion rate of 2-point conversions is less than 50%.

However, that's in a vacuum. This game was not played in a vacuum. 39-38....it was an offensive shootout, one of those "whoever has the ball last is going to win" type games. You have a chance to have the ball last, you take it.

I don't think coaches do this enough. You have those games where neither team has even punted and it's just two teams trading off scores, then a team gets 4th and 3 later in the game and punts it even though the chances of their defense finally stopping the other team are far less than the chances of them picking up that 4th and 3.

Plus, when you really think of it, SD had outplayed Denver in regulation by 14 points, they just got a bit of luck (ahem, Ed Hochuli and faulty replay equipment) that made the score magically 38-37 for them. I don't think the game was 50/50 either way if the game went into overtime like some seem to be assuming.

 
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Couple years old but in 2004, the success rate was 50% and rising in recent years.

Article

The Two-Point Conversion Can Make Or Break A Team's Chances

by Greg Davis - 10/03/2005

'Oddly enough, the success rate continues to improve. Last year NFL teams converted 50 percent of their two point tries. This year so far in college percentages are up to 50 percent as well with 24 of 48 successful attempts.'

 
Glatty said:
I thought the announcers were wrong.. i may be crazy, but i always remember it as "if at home,go for 2, on the road go for the tie"you have the momentum and the crowd.. try to put it away. :shrug:
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Other way around. On the road go for two and the win. Thinking is that it's harder to win on the road so if you have the chance go for it.
 
timschochet said:
Another statistic that would be interesting to know is how many coaches ever go for two in this situation. I'm betting it's extremely low, and that should tell you something about the wisdom of the decision.
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X1st - No other coach has ever been in THIS situation. Games are unique. Denver couldn't stop SD and was moving the ball at will. They also needed 2 very bad/lucky calls just to get to this situation where they were tied. He knew he could score, and he did. But you, sitting at home on your coach, probably know more about his team in that situation than he does, right? :rollseyes:2nd - Just because a decision is not the one that everyone else makes certainly does not make it wrong. In my opinion, this should be done more. I think the conversion rate is right around 50%. As usual, Tim, you are wrong.
 
Don't have the time to find it right now, but I recall a mathematical argument in favor of going for two EVERY time. The logic being that if you go for two every time, the times you miss will be offset by the times you get it (if league averages apply). And that by going for two, you force the opposition to go for two, so you have to compound the calculations of your own success rate by their success rate. It was a bunch of stuff probably only Drinen and Chase would get, but it was pretty good.

I'll see if I can find it, and post later when I've sufficiently recovered from one of the two most gut-wrenching losses of the season.

Wow, last week's loss has become downright tolerable after this one! :excited:

 
timschochet said:
Another statistic that would be interesting to know is how many coaches ever go for two in this situation. I'm betting it's extremely low, and that should tell you something about the wisdom of the decision.
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If you coach like everyone else coaches, how can you ever distinguish yourself?I think it says more about Shanahan as a coach than anything.
 
Michael Brown said:
Don't have the time to find it right now, but I recall a mathematical argument in favor of going for two EVERY time. The logic being that if you go for two every time, the times you miss will be offset by the times you get it (if league averages apply). And that by going for two, you force the opposition to go for two, so you have to compound the calculations of your own success rate by their success rate. It was a bunch of stuff probably only Drinen and Chase would get, but it was pretty good.I'll see if I can find it, and post later when I've sufficiently recovered from one of the two most gut-wrenching losses of the season.Wow, last week's loss has become downright tolerable after this one! :excited:
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I've read this before too....I don't remember where though....he backed all of it up with numbers and it actually made sense.
 
timschochet said:
I say it's stupid to go for two in that situation. Sure, it's gutsy, but it's also stupid. Kick the extra point, go into overtime. What say you?
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If only there was a thread about this game somewhere. Then you could have posted in that thread instead of starting a new one. What a tragedy.
 
PFP had an article on 2-point conversions in 2007. The success rate of 2-point conversions was 50% or higher in 2002, 2004, 2005, and 2006.

 
Steve Tasker for Prez said:
Michael Brown said:
Don't have the time to find it right now, but I recall a mathematical argument in favor of going for two EVERY time. The logic being that if you go for two every time, the times you miss will be offset by the times you get it (if league averages apply). And that by going for two, you force the opposition to go for two, so you have to compound the calculations of your own success rate by their success rate. It was a bunch of stuff probably only Drinen and Chase would get, but it was pretty good.I'll see if I can find it, and post later when I've sufficiently recovered from one of the two most gut-wrenching losses of the season.Wow, last week's loss has become downright tolerable after this one! :excited:
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I've read this before too....I don't remember where though....he backed all of it up with numbers and it actually made sense.
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I think that I've also read that it's mathematically correct to go for it anytime in is 4th and 2 or less, as long as you are past your own 30 yard line, or something like that.
 
tribecalledjeff said:
Steve Tasker for Prez said:
Michael Brown said:
Don't have the time to find it right now, but I recall a mathematical argument in favor of going for two EVERY time. The logic being that if you go for two every time, the times you miss will be offset by the times you get it (if league averages apply). And that by going for two, you force the opposition to go for two, so you have to compound the calculations of your own success rate by their success rate. It was a bunch of stuff probably only Drinen and Chase would get, but it was pretty good.I'll see if I can find it, and post later when I've sufficiently recovered from one of the two most gut-wrenching losses of the season.Wow, last week's loss has become downright tolerable after this one! :excited:
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I've read this before too....I don't remember where though....he backed all of it up with numbers and it actually made sense.
Click to expand...
I think that I've also read that it's mathematically correct to go for it anytime in is 4th and 2 or less, as long as you are past your own 30 yard line, or something like that.
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Yep, seen that as well.No idea where though....ESPN maybe?
 
Michael Brown said:
Don't have the time to find it right now, but I recall a mathematical argument in favor of going for two EVERY time. The logic being that if you go for two every time, the times you miss will be offset by the times you get it (if league averages apply). And that by going for two, you force the opposition to go for two, so you have to compound the calculations of your own success rate by their success rate. It was a bunch of stuff probably only Drinen and Chase would get, but it was pretty good.I'll see if I can find it, and post later when I've sufficiently recovered from one of the two most gut-wrenching losses of the season.Wow, last week's loss has become downright tolerable after this one! :excited:
Click to expand...
We used to apply this logic in flag football back during intramurals (fun times).One problem that I see with going for 2 everytime (and we ran into the same, though obviously there is no comparison between the two) is that eventually you just run out of good goalline plays. Even worse, then you end up with some 4th and shorts or regular goal to go situations and you've already used up some of your best short yardage stuff on conversions.
 
timschochet said:
Another statistic that would be interesting to know is how many coaches ever go for two in this situation. I'm betting it's extremely low, and that should tell you something about the wisdom of the decision.
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This I agree with. Because most coaches play in fear of losing rather than to win, the fact that most coaches play it safe should tell you that going for it was the right call.
 
IvanKaramazov said:
timschochet said:
I say it's stupid to go for two in that situation. Sure, it's gutsy, but it's also stupid. Kick the extra point, go into overtime. What say you?
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If only there was a thread about this game somewhere. Then you could have posted in that thread instead of starting a new one. What a tragedy.
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You must be new here. It timothy has a thought, he starts a thread.
 
timschochet said:
I already know the voting is going to be lopsided here, because it worked. But if it had failed, a lot of you guys would be all over Shanahan here. Remember, we're not discussing either the execution of the play nor it's result, only the decision itself.
Click to expand...
Isn't that the definition of gutsy/ballsy? If there wasn't any risk then no one would be talking about it.
 
timschochet said:
I say it's stupid to go for two in that situation. Sure, it's gutsy, but it's also stupid. Kick the extra point, go into overtime. What say you?
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Why do you say it's stupid?J
 
timschochet said:
Another statistic that would be interesting to know is how many coaches ever go for two in this situation. I'm betting it's extremely low, and that should tell you something about the wisdom of the decision.
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if all the coaches in the NFL jumped over a cliff, should Shanahan do as well?
 
Even if they had missed you still have to figure into the risk calculations the fact that they have a chance to get the ball back around midfield with 20 seconds left and a TO.

Shanahan saw the opportunity to win, maybe taking advantage of the defense being a little off from the horrible call.

It was definitely either a great move or a dumb call in most peoples eyes based on the outcome. With it working it will add to the genius moniker.

 
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