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Subscriber Contest to be Unveiled by Wednesday Morning (1 Viewer)

I got myself at 142.5 and done. If I make it I've got Riley Cooper to thank because my lineup only got 38 points out of my top 7 most expensive players which account for $156 of my roster.

 
Thanks to the pathetic showing from Romo, I'll be sweating it out tonight. According to FFLTools, the cut-line is currently at 128 and I'm at 144. Considering the lack of firepower on the Dolphins and Bucs, I feel like I SHOULD make it through...but it's definitely the closest I've been all season. I've yet to miss a cut by less than 30.

This was my roughest bye week by far though, so IF I get through I feel pretty good. My only big concern will be having Geno Smith as my only QB next week (Romo, Weeden, and Vick were my other three).

 
Thanks to the pathetic showing from Romo, I'll be sweating it out tonight. According to FFLTools, the cut-line is currently at 128 and I'm at 144. Considering the lack of firepower on the Dolphins and Bucs, I feel like I SHOULD make it through...but it's definitely the closest I've been all season. I've yet to miss a cut by less than 30.

This was my roughest bye week by far though, so IF I get through I feel pretty good. My only big concern will be having Geno Smith as my only QB next week (Romo, Weeden, and Vick were my other three).
You can turn off the sweat. The game could be Miami 254 to Tampa 253 and you would still be moving on.

 
Thanks to the pathetic showing from Romo, I'll be sweating it out tonight. According to FFLTools, the cut-line is currently at 128 and I'm at 144. Considering the lack of firepower on the Dolphins and Bucs, I feel like I SHOULD make it through...but it's definitely the closest I've been all season. I've yet to miss a cut by less than 30.

This was my roughest bye week by far though, so IF I get through I feel pretty good. My only big concern will be having Geno Smith as my only QB next week (Romo, Weeden, and Vick were my other three).
You can turn off the sweat. The game could be Miami 254 to Tampa 253 and you would still be moving on.
Yeah, I made that post before going back and looking at Saints post listing the relevant players.

I feel pretty good about making it through my toughest bye week, especially considering some of my best players had bad weeks in the process. I've definitely decided to go with big rosters moving forward.

 
Where does it show your score?
http://ffltools.com/fbg35k I built this and it updates your team scores every 5 minutes (I'm charging $2.99 a team for the rest of the season to help recoup some of my costs) and it also calculates the current cutoff every 30 minutes that's referenced in this thread (that's usually about 20 minutes behind).
I donated and have been very happy (Thank you very much), but it has never shown the cutoff all season for me. Is there a reason for this?

 
I have to admit, every year this contest is one of my favorite and worth the price of the website alone. So for those of you moving forward, to what do you attribute your success? The last several years I've taken the same approach and it seems to work pretty well. Here's some of the items I have found to work well.

  1. Large Rosters (25+). I had a roster of 27 folks, lost 5 so far to injuries and still have enough players to keep me alive.
  2. 3K/3D: Don't know why, but it always seems to work out where that 3rd K or 3rd D saves your bacon at least once in the regular season.
  3. Studs with early byes. I try to take at least one stud at each position with early byes. Stud is defined as any player I would consider in the top 2 rounds of a 12-team regular redraft. Early byes since I am more likely to survive with a larger roster and more variables early on.
  4. Bye week management is crucial. I spent many hours just studying bye weeks. Here's a couple of things that are imperative when I plan on my bye weeks:
    • No stud player with the same bye week as another stud player
    • No kicker on bye when a defense is on bye
    • Minimal players on bye Week 10 and forward, with a majority of players on bye in the first 3-4 weeks
    • No concurrent bye weeks for the same player positions. As in, I have 6 RBs, no RBs have the same bye week, Because I have 9 WRs, I have a few receivers that overlap.
    • Minimize the players on bye when a stud has a late bye week.
  5. Hope for the best and say a prayer. Sometimes survivability is based on not losing key players. In other times, it's praying for luck like when you lose all of your backup QBs and need to make it through taking a 0 at some positions.
Anyway, that's basically what I do and it seems to work fairly well.

 
Where does it show your score?
http://ffltools.com/fbg35k I built this and it updates your team scores every 5 minutes (I'm charging $2.99 a team for the rest of the season to help recoup some of my costs) and it also calculates the current cutoff every 30 minutes that's referenced in this thread (that's usually about 20 minutes behind).
I donated and have been very happy (Thank you very much), but it has never shown the cutoff all season for me. Is there a reason for this?
Thank you. It should show it after 7:30PM on Sunday's. I just took a look and I am guessing it may be a presentation thing. The bottom (near your score) is where I put the actual cutoff in the past, that's not where the current cutoff is shown. Its on the top left of the page, just under the navigation. Do you see this?

Code:
Last Update - Cutoff: Monday, November 11th 8:30pm Cutoff at that time: 128.95
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Where does it show your score?
http://ffltools.com/fbg35k I built this and it updates your team scores every 5 minutes (I'm charging $2.99 a team for the rest of the season to help recoup some of my costs) and it also calculates the current cutoff every 30 minutes that's referenced in this thread (that's usually about 20 minutes behind).
I donated and have been very happy (Thank you very much), but it has never shown the cutoff all season for me. Is there a reason for this?
Thank you. It should show it after 7:30PM on Sunday's. I just took a look and I am guessing it may be a presentation thing. The bottom (near your score) is where I put the actual cutoff in the past, that's not where the current cutoff is shown. Its on the top left of the page, just under the navigation. Do you see this?

Last Update - Cutoff: Monday, November 11th 8:30pm Cutoff at that time: 128.95
OC it's 11:20 and still showing the 8:30 p.m. cutoff, why is that if it updates every 30 min? Just wondering if there's a problem with the program perhaps?

 
Where does it show your score?
http://ffltools.com/fbg35k I built this and it updates your team scores every 5 minutes (I'm charging $2.99 a team for the rest of the season to help recoup some of my costs) and it also calculates the current cutoff every 30 minutes that's referenced in this thread (that's usually about 20 minutes behind).
I donated and have been very happy (Thank you very much), but it has never shown the cutoff all season for me. Is there a reason for this?
Thank you. It should show it after 7:30PM on Sunday's. I just took a look and I am guessing it may be a presentation thing. The bottom (near your score) is where I put the actual cutoff in the past, that's not where the current cutoff is shown. Its on the top left of the page, just under the navigation. Do you see this?

Last Update - Cutoff: Monday, November 11th 8:30pm Cutoff at that time: 128.95
OC it's 11:20 and still showing the 8:30 p.m. cutoff, why is that if it updates every 30 min? Just wondering if there's a problem with the program perhaps?
Yeah, I noticed that when I posted that. I rebooted the server that processes the cutoff. I'll make sure it runs again at 11:30, the cutoff should post once it completes processing in about 20 mins.

 
Major players for MNF:

Miami Players: # of Teams:Tannehill: 72Miller: 77Thomas: 41Wallace: 10Hartline: 303Sturgis: 77Miami D: 89Tampa Bay Players:Jackson: 42Crabtree: 1 (FPD)TB D: 136I didn't realize how drastically the Tampa Bay starters were changed over. The three folks above are really the only players on Tampa that are worth tracking now that were in the September contest list.

Based on what I am seeing, looks like the line will not move much at all tomorrow with the low ownership of the players. Hartline probably would affect the most change at this point.
Yeah, I really only have the cut line moving 2 pts based on tonights game (130.65).
At 132.7, despite having to start Lance Moore and Christine Michael. AJ Green's hail mary is the only thing keeping my chances alive this week. Hoping I can squeak by.
I'm at 131 and some change.
Nice work, but possibly should have included Charles Clay in there also.

 
Looks like the dream is over as it appears Hartline ended up about 4 points short of what I needed from him.

I'll cross my fingers and hope for a miscalculation on the STL D I guess.

 
Major players for MNF:

Miami Players: # of Teams:Tannehill: 72Miller: 77Thomas: 41Wallace: 10Hartline: 303Sturgis: 77Miami D: 89Tampa Bay Players:Jackson: 42Crabtree: 1 (FPD)TB D: 136I didn't realize how drastically the Tampa Bay starters were changed over. The three folks above are really the only players on Tampa that are worth tracking now that were in the September contest list.

Based on what I am seeing, looks like the line will not move much at all tomorrow with the low ownership of the players. Hartline probably would affect the most change at this point.
Yeah, I really only have the cut line moving 2 pts based on tonights game (130.65).
At 132.7, despite having to start Lance Moore and Christine Michael. AJ Green's hail mary is the only thing keeping my chances alive this week. Hoping I can squeak by.
I'm at 131 and some change.
Nice work, but possibly should have included Charles Clay in there also.
No Charles Clay listed in the query tool.

 
Came in at 125.30, and the cutoff was 129.30. Missed the cut by 4 points, thanks to Romo (10.4 points) and Dez (5.4 points).

Good luck to the remaining teams!

 
Not going to lie, I was sweating it quite a bit last week. But looks like I will eek by with a 134.75 with 129.3 being the cut line. My QB group which has killed me the last 3 seasons almost did me in again this year but I sneak by with a combined 9.15 points out of them.

So far 23 out of 29 have played (79.3%).

Newton (7/10) Vick (3/10) Weeden (0/10)

Bush (7/10) D. Williams (5/10) Lacy (6/10) Helu (2/10) J. Bell (4/10) Redman (0/10) Polk (1/10)

Mi. Floyd (5/10) Hopkins (4/10) G. Tate (4/10) Hartline (5/10) Patterson (0/10) Wheaton (0/10) Kerley (2/10) K. Allen (4/10) Thompkins (3/10) J. Hunter (0/10)

Graham (8/10) D. Allen (0/10) Eifert (3/10) J. Thomas (7/10)

Zuerlein (4/10) Forbath (2/10) Gano (4/10)

Browns (3/10) Ravens (7/10)

Flex: RB 5, WR 7, TE 8

Players out for the year (or cut/benched): D. Allen, Weeden, Redman, Vick ($31/$250)

Biggest regret of a pick this year is Weeden with a close second to Patterson (although he has almost counted for me 3 times).

Players passed Bye week 24/29 (82.8%)

PocketSnowmen

 
No Romo (hence no QB) and no Austin for me this week. The way Romo has been playing it won't really matter anyway. Will get Gronk/Amendola back which should offset this.

 
made it by 30 points.

Dez & romo didnt do crap for me this week. So hopefully I can survive without them this week

No QB, David Wilson and Jermicahel Finley = dead

 
Furthest I've ever gone...will be playing with 1 QB next two weeks since Wilson/Romo is my combo. If only I'd gone Lacy for Wilson and Cooper for Wheaton...sigh. At least there are only a handful of teams with my stud combo of McCoy, Charles, Megatron, and Graham.

 
:lmao: How in the world am I still alive? Made it by 0.85 points this week. Took a zero at QB last week and got a grand total of 5.15 pts from Kaepernick this week.

I have survived by an average margin of 6.3 points over the past 6 weeks. Largest margin in that stretch was week 9 with a zero at QB and I made it by 15.15 pts. :shock:

Its not fair to all of you with good teams that my garbage squad has survived. I do believe, however, that my team is a prime example of the 3 Kicker/3 Defense theory....averaging 27.3 from those two spots.

Team Jayrodsquad

 
4 QBs @ $46

6 RBs @ $73

8 WRs @ $73

3 TEs @ $39

3 PKs @ $ 9

3 Ds @ $10

-----------

27 players, $250

(snip - detailed team roster and rationale in link to post)
(snip - detailed week 3 breakdown)
(snip - detailed week 4 breakdown)
(snip -detailed week 5 breakdown)
(snip - detailed week 6 breakdown)
(snip - detailed week 7 breakdown)
(snip - detailed week 8 breakdown)
(snip - detailed week 9 breakdown)
Week 10: Knock knock. Who's there? The Turk! ####!

Missed the cut by 3.55 points, but I'm surprised I lasted this long. Still, if Welker could crack just 9 points which still would have been his season low, I'd be alive. Anyway, onto the post-mortem:

QB strategy: I went overboard with the "best ball" strategy at QB, choosing 4. Would have absolutely been fine if I stopped at just QB1 Luck and QB2 Wilson. Even the weeks QB3 Locker and QB4 Ponder scored for me, the gap from them to Luck/Wilson wasn't the difference between dead or alive. That's $15 overspent at this position. As for Luck/Wilson, their $31 combined I think was worth it in this best ball format. I hoped that both would have good 2nd seasons and they have. Cracked 30pts once, 25pts four more times, sub-20 only twice with 16.55 the low score. The drawback is no huge upside like Brees or Rodgers (injury notwithstanding) which may not have gotten me much further.

RB strategy: Wanted 5+ RBs all along for best ball purposes, but knew due to budget concerns that could only really afford two decent guys and the rest would be hit-or-miss. Then I went out and missed on RB1 MJD. Thought he would have a bounce back year. Oops. As a Pats fan, with the new faces at WR this year I figured that the Pats would use the running game a lot more and RB2 Ridley would be the guy. After his fumbleitis game in Buffalo to start the season, he got shelved until week 6 then started performing as I had hoped. Missed him on his bye this week. Of the hit-or-miss guys, my big hit was RB3 Jacquizz Rodgers. While Steven Jackson was hurt, Rodgers put up two 20+pt games and a 14pt game. Even after Jackson returned, he put up two double-digit games thanks to PPR. $10 well spent all told. Wish I could say the same about the $20 spent on RB4 Pead, RB5 Redman and RB6 Michael. Admittedly, Michael was a flyer...looked good in preseason and hoped he could see reps later in the year as the Seahawks may start rotating him in to keep Lynch fresh for the postseason. Any production from him was expected later. The other two guys? :cringe: I think next year I may go thin and top-heavy at RB, spending money on guys like Peterson and Lynch, picking up an RB3 who gets PPRs like Rodgers or Woodhead and focus the money elsewhere for my flex scores.

WR strategy: Between PPR and the high variance WRs offer in yardage, I figured this would be the position to load up on quantity and I did with 8 guys. My focus was on PPR and I anticipated that WR1A Welker and WR1B Amendola would thrive with their new QBs. What I didn't expect was how Welker would become a TD machine; Manning uses him down by the goalline like Brady uses Gronk. Welker was my team MVP (which also explains why I wasn't long for this contest). When healthy, Amendola and Brady clicked. Like Ridley, could have used him this week. The remaining 6 WRs were a pu pu platter of low cost with high variance, but I do say I missed big-time on WR3 Givens. WR4 Hartline was $9 well spent with 6 double-digit scores. WR5 Streater ended up scoring 5 times for me, but only twice in double-digits, but that's what $6 gets. I thought I was getting a steal with WR6 Jacoby Jones at $5, that he would build on his excellent post-season and offer a random kick return TD or two, but didn't happen. WR7 McCluster was a $3 flyer on someone who perhaps could thrive with new coach Reid and he did have 3 double-digit scores with one 20+pt game that likely saved me that week, so not bad. WR8 Thompkins was everyone's $2 favorite who made some noise until both Gronk and Amendola returned. I would use this strategy again next year, but tweak it just a bit to squeeze in a home run threat like Calvin or Dez as someone like them is probably needed to win the whole thing.

TE strategy: Wanted TE1 Witten going into this contest, figuring he's a PPR machine and more reliable than Jimmy Graham week-to-week. Meh. That being said, he did put up three 28+pt games and 3 other double-digit games. But for those 4 games he didn't crack double-digits, that's not going to cut it, especially at 1.5pts/catch for TEs. I thought I was getting value at TE2 Fleener, figuring his 2nd year with Stanford teammate Luck would boost him into the upper echelon of TEs...all for $10. Aside from his three games with 17+pts, he was indeed a TE2 and even this production was likely boosted due to Dwayne Allen's season-ending injury. My big miss was at TE3: Celek over Julius Thomas. Next time I need to pay attention to more preseason action. This definitely cost me this week. Next year I will look at perhaps two studs (Graham, Witten) as 1.5pts/catch is nothing to sneeze at. Maybe even go 4+ TEs.

PK strategy: Went 3 kickers for best ball purposes, all at the cheapest cost of $3. Figured Crosby and Hauschka would get FG opportunities on their teams and that Carson Palmer would put Feely into better positions to score. Probably will do this again next year.

D/ST strategy: Went 3 defenses for best ball purposes. Wanted to go $3 for all 3 so I picked Saints and Chargers, hoping that a full season of Sean Payton and Rob Ryan would mean sacks and turnovers galore and that 4 games vs. Oakland and KC would get the Chargers some decent scoring chances. Hit on the Saints, miss on the Chargers. Didn't see a good option at the time for a third $3 defense, so spent $4 on the Giants, hoping for sacks and forced fumbles by their front four (and games vs. Tony Romo). Didn't see much there, either. Next year I'm weighing going with two defenses, spending the same total $10, but on guys like Seattle and KC.

Next year I'm definitely going to start looking into this contest earlier when the prices are set. Then use the preseason to see where the pricing inefficiencies may lie. Maybe simply paying attention at all will help a ton (hello, Julius Thomas).

Good luck to everyone left.

 
No Julio and crappy QBs finally caught up to me this week. I'm out. Good luck to everyone else still in and have been posting!

 
132 this week...riding the te's straight to he#$#$$ with Thomas/Graham...Giovanni doing well has really helped. Barely anyone left though with blackmon/wayne/wilson/hillman all wasted $$$s...can't believe this team has come this far

 
Haven't checked but wondering how many with Romo don't have anyone else this week. Rodgers, Schaub, Vick
I have been riding to quite a bit of success the romo/luck combination this year...
Same combo, been good for 20+ every week but 6.

My weekly dud's are starting to pile up though, TRich, DRich, Blackmon, Thompkins. Thankfully, the TE trio of Graham/Cameron/Thomas has been a boon.

 
Top 15 in week 10 - not bad. This is the farthest I've gone and I spent maybe 20 minutes constructing the team. Go figure.

 
another week, another score clearing the cut by 30+ points.

Gonna start looking for stuff to spend the check on this week.

 
Ugh. No QB, and DeSean Jackson being my only WR to show up means that I am at 123.6 with only Daniel Thomas -6.5 to go.

Would need around 50 yards and a TD to even get it close...
Yup, and the -.2 points from Daniel Thomas spell my end. Good luck to everyone from here on out! If only I had even 6 points from my QB position, I would still be in it :ptts:

 
Haven't checked but wondering how many with Romo don't have anyone else this week. Rodgers, Schaub, Vick
Me: Romo, Vick, Cutler

No QB and no Dez is going to be tough this week.

I need A. Morris, C. Johnson, F. Gore, E. Lacy, G. Tate, (one of my scrub WRs), J. Cameron, D. Thomas to all have good games.... so this may be my last week in the tourney.

 
killface said:
Gottabesweet said:
Haven't checked but wondering how many with Romo don't have anyone else this week. Rodgers, Schaub, Vick
I have been riding to quite a bit of success the romo/luck combination this year...
Been doing the same. Fortunately, they are both still playing....and playing well. Although my point totals have been declining since week 1, I'm still hanging in there!

 

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