The 1.04 is not a great place to be many years. The Brandon Jackson owners might agree. I think there is a much bigger difference between the 1.02 and even 1.03 (much less down to 1.04) picks than most realize, imo. The difference is not in the player, but the value held in each pick. To me, the value is the key, not looking back at which player was drafted. My man, BETO, had a great thread on this from a few years back:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...0&hl=rookie
I've seen a lot of questions recently on the value of rookie picks in making trades in new and existing dynasty leagues. Since I have saved my rookie draft data since the 2000 draft I thought I could look it over and form some conclusions. This is my 1st cut comparing 1st round rookie picks in a 12 team league to the corresponding picks in an initial dynasty veteran draft.
This is not meant to be a guide specifically for the 2005 season but rather a guideline for the average draft that balances years with draft classes of varying talent and depth.
First off, let's take a look at some of the trends that jumped out at me from the data.
1. The 1st pick can be a difficult decision. Ricky over Edge, Dayne over Jamal Lewis, Bennett over Tomlinson and Charles Rogers over Willis McGahee are all mistakes I've seen made. Some of them obviously have brutal consequences. Swapping spots with the overzealous 1.2 owner could be profitable on draft day.
2. Reaching for questionable RBs can start some years at the #5 and #6 spots. I think my data shows that although most teams are in need of a young RB, the value of other positions is better starting at around this spot. Good RBs are occasionaly found after the #5 spot but I think the list of busts is probably longer. This is where an eye for a good RB can make a huge difference.
3. All draft spots are not created equally. When picking your draft spot in an initial dynasty the value of the difference in rookie picks (1vs12) is much greater than the difference between veteran picks (1vs12). Having the 1st pick in the rookie draft is probably the equivalent of adding an early 2nd rounder.
Here's my baseline for trading rookie picks. I would adjust these every year depending on my assessment of the quality of the class and what can be had at the corresponding point in the veteran draft.
Rookie pick # = Veteran pick #
1.1 = 2.4
The perfect srting of players picked #1 since 1999 would include Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis (or Shaun Alexander if you were bold), Ladainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee and Kevin Jones (personal preference on the last two, jury is still out IMO). Getting players like this is obviously worth more than the 2.4 Vet pick. However, the fact is that no matter how much you love a player, until they start playing on Sunday's you have a good amount of risk. Couple that with weaker draft classes and I think 2.4 is a fairly conservative estimate. At the 2.4 spot you are usually looking at a player with a nice track record to help anchor your team.
1.2 = 2.8
I don't see much of a difference in picking 1 or 2 over the years for reasons I mention above. However, if your league mate picking at 1 knows his stuff or the draft class is weak at the top that risk must be factored in.
1.3 = 3.2
The 3 spot is also a money spot where you can expect a worthwhile player. Since '99 the worst player taken at this spot has been Thomas Jones in my leagues. When I think of this spot I think of Tory Holt who has kept his late 2nd, early 3rd round value since he has been in the league.
1.4 = 3.11
The 4 spot also carries a lot of value historically. A RB with talent but stuck behind a veteran can be found here, (Alexander) or a promising WR. You're still getting a player that could carry 3rd or 4th round value for years to come.
1.5 = 5.5
This is the 1st big drop in value (16 spots) probably because of the reach factor that I mention above. In my leagues there have been as many busts as successes here.
1.6 = 5.8
I view the 5 and 6 spots fairly equivalently. As long as you don't reach you are getting a good player that should contribute to your roster in a couple of years like a 5th round would currently do. Beyond this you are getting players who probably will take 2 years to develop.
1.7 = 7.2
The next big drop hits here (17 spots). Your league mates would have to be asleep to allow talent to drop to here.
1.8 = 9.1
The average player's value at this spot is declining badly. Need the scouts eye here. The good news is a lot of leagues don't draft QBs this high and you might be looking at the top QB.
1.9 = 11.1
Nobody of note taken at this spot. Best players seen around here have been Reggie Wayne, Boldin, Porter, Lelie.
1.10 = 12.6
1.11 = 13.6
1.12 = 15.1
I hope the top 3 picks in the vet draft were worth it!
I know alot of us are in dynasty leagues with each other but I hope this can generate some discussion. I would love to see the data from anyone else who has saved it. I have mine in a excel table and would be happy to share. Shoot me a PM.
Least points possible makes no sense. I've had Cadilac williams all year long. So I get a zero at RB1 slot for the year?Um...Or did you mean BEST score possible (and then taking the lowest "best" as the #1 pick winner)?????
Least points possible makes no sense. I've had Cadilac williams all year long. So I get a zero at RB1 slot for the year?
What's odd is that Jeff lists him as the perfect #1 that year. In reality that would've been Steven Jackson. Of guys not really in the discussion for the 1.01, Larry Fitzgerald was the best choice, but there were soem other good players. Jones hasn't been as complete a bust.If I ever get the 1.01 again, it's getting traded away; there's less pressure to get one pick right, and by acquiring picks, you can get a better chance of acquiring help.
