I was blown away by how similar the following two sets of stat lines were:
Player A: 10 starts, 7-3 record, 201/286/2,742, 9.6 YPA, 10.2 AY/A, 8.52 ANY/A, 9.8% sack rate
Player B: 10 starts, 8-2 record, 203/317/2,891, 9.1 YPA, 10.5 AY/A, 9.18 ANY/A, 8.1% sack rate
...
I left out the TD/INT numbers because they'd be a dead giveaway - but even so it's probably obvious that A is Tannehill's 2019 and B is Nick Foles' 2013 (mouse over). I don't know how anyone at any level of an NFL organization couldn't look at that, look at what followed immediately afterwards, and not hear deafening klaxon-like alarms at the idea of handing Tannehill a long-term deal this offseason.
Now, you want to use the franchise tag and slightly overpay the guy for a year in order to accumulate a reasonable sample size? Have at it. But a multi-year deal at that type of pay scale strikes me as utterly bananas.