Hey I'll take a guy that runs at a 6.X clip for 12 carries and gets 2 yards on the 13th carry. It's meaningless. What's more relevant to me is the number of positive or 4+ ypc runs as opposed to running for 0, 0, 1, 2, 3, 32 which is equiv to a 6.3 average.
You may take that. Shanahan won't with his featured RB. A dropoff of over 3 ypc is immense - almost unfathomable, regardless of how many carries it is and what the situation is.
My point is that people are focusing on this "dropoff" but I don't think that's the real issue. I think the issue is that he is totally feast or famine and the 12+ run stat is meaningless. I went through his carries last year and he carried for negative yards 13 times, 0 yards 18 times and 1-2 yards 54 times. So for 85 of 173 carries (49%) he got 2 yards or less. MA's % was 37% and I think anyone that watched the Bronc's know that MA was the short yardage guy and the guy that teams were looking to stop on 1st/2nd and Bell often came in on 3rd and long which made it easier to break a long one. So for 1/2 of Bell's carries to get 2 yards or less when the down/distance were often in situations where he could succeed is appallling. The # of times Bell carried between 3-5 yards was 38 which equates to only 22% of his carries contrast this with Anderson 87/239 (36%). This I believe is the issue that Shanny has with him. If you look at the box scores these 0, 1, -1 carry stats are all throughout the game it just happens that on the 7th or 9th run he runs for 32 yards and the YPC looks great but as a coach who is looking for a back to consistently move the chains and pick up 4 yards on 1st, 4 yards on 2nd to leave the team in a 3rd and short, he's not your guy. Until he proves that he can grind out consistent positive yards he will not be the solo back.
I tend to give greater credence to this explanation than to the tireing one. I suspect the ypc after 12 is a statistical anomoly, but that Shanahan just does not like this inconsistency you and others have pointed to. Pony Boy made a very similar observation about Quentin Griffen not so long back. At the time many were predicting his ascendence, but Pony pointed out this problem and predicted Q-dog would have to become Barry Sanders someplace other than in Denver. Shanny hates negative yards. Makes his veins pop and his little Touche` Turtle shaped head go all red.
Ok, I just pulled up the Data Dominator and sorted rushing yards on 1st and 2nd down outside of the opponent's 10 yard line. Here's what I got:
Mike Anderson - 180 for 872 yards (4.84), 3 TD
Tatum Bell - 128 for 692 (5.41), 2 TD
On 3rd downs outside the opponent's 10 yard line, Bell did very well with 5+ yards to go (9 for 117 (13.0 YPC), 3 TD) but not with 4 or less yard to go (16 for 40 (2.5 YPC), 0 TD).
Now before you rush off and say how terrible Bell is on 3rd and short compared to Anderson, Mike was only 14 for 37 (2.64) 0 TD.
Both MA and Bell has 9 first downs, MA on 16 carries and Bell on 14.
Where MA excelled was inside the 10 yard line with 4 or less yards to go where he was 25 for 48 (1.92 YPC) and 10 TD's and 4 first downs. Bell only carried the ball 6 times for 3 yards with 2 TD's.
However, inside the 10 yard line with 5 or more yards to go, Bell was actually better than MA:
Bell - 10 for 28 (2.8 YPC), 1 TD
MA - 9 for 17 (1.89), 0 TD