I'm only talking about redraft this year. Austin has a high ceiling for his future years. I'm only talking about him as a rookie.
Tavon is small but with the small WR's we've seen be very successful (Harvin, Cobb, Welker, Hilton, DeSean) why so much doubt about him? He could certainly stand to gain some weight but if he can avoid hits the way he was in college then I don't see what there is to worry about. He has 80 catches written all over him.
I agree those are decent places to look. They suggest a ceiling and floor for Austin, and temper the 80 catch suggestion.
Harvin - 60 rec/800 yards, 15 rushes/134 yards. It would be AWESOME for Tavon to hit that mark, but I think it's his ceiling.
Hilton - 50 rec/850 and 7 TD. That would also be an awesome result for Tavon, and it's a great comp based on size (5'9, 175). Hilton was one of many WRs on a passing offense with a young QB... similar to Tavon.
DeSean - 62 rec/912 yards, 17 rushes/96 yards. Another good comp, but I don't think Austin will have as high a YPC, although he could based on elusiveness. But again represents Austin's ceiling of up to 1,000 yards, probably 900/100 rushing receiving.
Cobb - 25 rec/375 yards, 5 rushes/2 yards. This is also a REAL possibility for Austin - not that I think it's likely. But Givens and Quick have a year more of experience, plus there's Dobson, and TEs. I figure STL to give Austin reps because of his draft price, but he's going to be one weapon on a team with many other WRs and 2 TEs. This is probably his floor.
Welker - didn't have a catch for 3 years, then 29 rec/434 yards. Austin's floor, similar to Cobb's numbers.
I brought up Bush because, as a rookie, he was immediately inserted as the center piece of the Saints offense and had 88 receptions. Most of those coming on short/quick throws. I expect the Rams to use Austin in similar way.
And the comparison to Jackson just seems so off to me. He plays a completely different position than Austin will play.
But Austin doesn't play on an offense like the Saints, and won't have 88 receptions as a RB also lining up at WR. Bush plays a completely different position, because he's a RB/WR hybrid. Austin is a tiny WR, and a microscopic RB. Dany Woodhead, a tiny RB, is 25 pounds heavier.
Jackson, actually, plays the exact same position that Austin will play, except that he operates more as a deep threat.
The problem is that there is no real comp to this kid so everyone is trying to compare apples to oranges. You don't like the comparisons, we get it. Nobody else really likes the comparisons either, but they are throwing out some discussion rather than complaining over and over and over and over about the comps not being good or being downright terrible. No comp is going to be good with Tavon because nobody that small and wickedly fast has been drafted that high.
Here's a thought. Maybe offer something constructive other than, "Tavon is not _______. Tavon plays WR. Tavon is 20 lbs lighter." We get it already. Oh, and did I mention we get it?
I agree that 60 carries is nuts. I'm thinking 32 carries is his ceiling in his first year and that is optimistic. Seems like 2 carries a game isn't much, but the guy is going to be playing special teams, lining up for probably 40 routes a game plus lining up in the backfield? Seems much to me. And they may not use him in the running game right away so he can concentrate on WR. So maybe he doesn't run the ball till week 8. I wouldn't expect more than about 10 carries from that point on.
There are decent comps - they happen to be small, athletic WRs. There are plenty of them so we don't need to consider RBs. I agree that 32 carries is probably an optimistic ceiling. More realistically 10-16.
I also think it's more likely he gets 2-3 return TDs than he has more than 16+ carries.
The only startable rookie I can remember that was close to Austin's size/role was Eddie Royal. He was a waiver add so thats a bad comp. His career was derailed because of injuries.
Other than that, Dexter McCluster. Too many nagging injuries and a inability to score TD's.
Royal is another decent comp based on size and position, ignoring the draft position. If Austin shows up in camp and pre-season as good of a route runner as Royal, it might suggest increasing his receptions.
But I think the Rams offense is being designed to run super fast, out of the shutgun, and spray the ball around to a number of weapons they have, based out of multiple WR and multiple TE sets. I don't think its going to be like the Denver offense when it was setup to force the ball to Royal and Marshall.
Also - Dexter McCluster played RB in college and ran for over 1,000 yards in the SEC. He's basically a failed convert to WR, but his rookie year was 21rec/209yards plus 18 rushes/71 yards. But I think Austin has way more talent at WR, and even less ability to play RB.
I re-read your post and saw that you were talking about this year, in which case I agree with you. I do think he'll have at least 60 catches and 15-20 carries, which puts him around low WR2 for this year.
"At least" 60 and 15-20 carries, is IMO closer to his ceiling, than his floor.
Revised, more-likely estimate:
50 rec, 650 yards, 16 rushes for 96 yards, 8 total TDs including 1 PR
Not bad, but not worth his current ADP. That comp of his, TY Hilton, in his 2nd year, on a team with a more proven passing attack... who already put up 50 / 850 / 7 ... as a rookie, with a rookie QB, looks like a much better value a round later. So does DeSean jackson, that other comp, playing on an offense that might run a ton of screens to him, and who's already shown 1,000 yard ability, and is available about two full rounds later. There are tons of other examples.
At Austin's current ADP of 6.11, or WR25, he better have high end WR3 or WR2 numbers to justify that draft position. But there's no water to squeeze out of this rock for value. All the reasons that make it smart to wait on QB, stock up on RB, and hit WR for late value suggests that he's over-valued right now.