TE Analysis (1 Viewer)

[-jb-]

I started doing some research on TEs, looking to avoid overpaying for the position. I really thought Cooley was going to be my guy this year...now I'm not so sure. What I found was interesting...

In order for this exercise to have substance, we need to make assumptions on projections. In order to do that, I combined all five of the FBG projections (Dodds, Wood, Henry, Smith, Tremblay), and created an average. The following is that average, with their ADP in parentheses:

Winslow - 143 (51)

Witten - 140 (43)

Gates - 133 (52)

Gonzalez - 132 (60)

Clark - 115 (69)

Cooley - 114 (71)

Scheffler - 95 (116)

Heap - 94 (89)

Shockey - 93 (98)

Daniels - 92 (110)

Davis - 92 (97)

Miller - 85 (101)

Crumpler - 84 (118)

We're obviously looking for the guy that has the best combination of high points and high ADP. In order to quantify that, let's rank 1-13 based on most points, and 1-13 based on highest draft position:

Winslow - 1, 12

Witten - 2, 13

Gates - 3, 11

Gonzalez - 4, 10

Clark - 5, 9

Cooley - 6, 8

Scheffler - 7, 2

Heap - 8, 7

Shockey - 9, 5

Daniels - 11, 6

Miller - 12, 4

Crumpler - 13, 1

If you average these numbers together, you get a loose interpretation of who is the "best buy" in consideration of their ADP:

Scheffler - 4.5

Winslow/Daniels - 6.5

Gates/Gonzo/Clark/Cooley/Shockey/Crumpler - 7

Witten/Heap - 7.5

Miller - 8

Davis - 8.5

Tony Scheffler leads the "best buy" pack. Since Scheffler can be had in the 12th round, there is a lot of flexibility in what you can do here. In reality, he's projected to score the same as a WR4 - that may not suffice for you. If this is the case, have a go at one of the other guys - but don't lose too much sleep over which one, since their ADP is pretty consistent with the points they'll afford you. You may also consider Scheffler as a back-up. However, if you're comfortable with WR4 production from your TE1, you've got a ton of time to draft other needs knowing your guy can be had way, way late.

This analysis is more informational than strategic. How you choose to use the data is your strategy. If you're aggressive in drafting TEs, Winslow seems to have an ever-so-slight advantage. If you like to wait, I suggest waiting all the way to the 12th and grab Tony Scheffler. One thing seems clear, though - most of the guys are all about the same from a points-to-ADP perspective.

I think my approach to TEs this year will be to wait for that moment when no other choices at other positions are compelling. That seems to happen to me once a draft, usually around the 5th round. I will definitely be seeking out Scheffler in the 12th, either as a back-up or my main guy.



ETA - I think this is headed in the right direction, but the ranking needs to be massaged. How can I use the projections and ADPs to create a more accurate ratio? This may slice up that middle-of-the-pack group a bit more. Help.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

KW2 looks wrong.

Wait, you flipped the math.

I think you need to VBD the TEs and re-analyze.

 

[-jb-]

KW2 looks wrong.

wrong how? bad projections?

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Some spirited discussion here.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=405740

 

[bcr8f]

I like Owens Daniels somewhat late.

 

[-jb-]

Some spirited discussion here.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=405740

thx. search is my friend.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Can we even search for two letter terms now?

 

[BigRed]

Pass on the number-crunching exercises, but overall this year is a tough call to make for TEs, IMO:

- Winslow looks great, but can you count on Anderson?

- Gates is Gates, but catches slipped a bit last year - is he worth what he'll cost?

- Gonzo did great but is really getting old and Croyle is a joke.....

- Witten was fantastic but only had 1 TD the year before with the norm somewhere in between - "regress to the norm" or is he really Gates-like?

Of the "2d tier" can guys like Cooley and Clark even come close to repeating?

What about some of the good-not-amazings like Miller, V Davis, Owens?

etc etc

 

[gregjcross]

I like Owens Daniels somewhat late.

I hope you mean as a back up. Because he was not worth much in a 12 team league last year from what i saw, I was even happier with VD.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I like Owens Daniels somewhat late.

I hope you mean as a back up. Because he was not worth much in a 12 team league last year from what i saw, I was even happier with VD.

drafting solely based onwhat you saw last year is probably not the best strategy. i like daniels late,also.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I started doing some research on TEs, looking to avoid overpaying for the position. I really thought Cooley was going to be my guy this year...now I'm not so sure. What I found was interesting...

In order for this exercise to have substance, we need to make assumptions on projections. In order to do that, I combined all five of the FBG projections (Dodds, Wood, Henry, Smith, Tremblay), and created an average. The following is that average, with their ADP in parentheses:

Winslow - 143 (51)

Witten - 140 (43)

Gates - 133 (52)

Gonzalez - 132 (60)

Clark - 115 (69)

Cooley - 114 (71)

Scheffler - 95 (116)

Heap - 94 (89)

Shockey - 93 (98)

Daniels - 92 (110)

Davis - 92 (97)

Miller - 85 (101)

Crumpler - 84 (118)

We're obviously looking for the guy that has the best combination of high points and high ADP. In order to quantify that, let's rank 1-13 based on most points, and 1-13 based on highest draft position:

Winslow - 1, 12

Witten - 2, 13

Gates - 3, 11

Gonzalez - 4, 10

Clark - 5, 9

Cooley - 6, 8

Scheffler - 7, 2

Heap - 8, 7

Shockey - 9, 5

Daniels - 11, 6

Miller - 12, 4

Crumpler - 13, 1

If you average these numbers together, you get a loose interpretation of who is the "best buy" in consideration of their ADP:

Scheffler - 4.5

Winslow/Daniels - 6.5

Gates/Gonzo/Clark/Cooley/Shockey/Crumpler - 7

Witten/Heap - 7.5

Miller - 8

Davis - 8.5

Tony Scheffler leads the "best buy" pack. Since Scheffler can be had in the 12th round, there is a lot of flexibility in what you can do here. In reality, he's projected to score the same as a WR4 - that may not suffice for you. If this is the case, have a go at one of the other guys - but don't lose too much sleep over which one, since their ADP is pretty consistent with the points they'll afford you. You may also consider Scheffler as a back-up. However, if you're comfortable with WR4 production from your TE1, you've got a ton of time to draft other needs knowing your guy can be had way, way late.

This analysis is more informational than strategic. How you choose to use the data is your strategy. If you're aggressive in drafting TEs, Winslow seems to have an ever-so-slight advantage. If you like to wait, I suggest waiting all the way to the 12th and grab Tony Scheffler. One thing seems clear, though - most of the guys are all about the same from a points-to-ADP perspective.

I think my approach to TEs this year will be to wait for that moment when no other choices at other positions are compelling. That seems to happen to me once a draft, usually around the 5th round. I will definitely be seeking out Scheffler in the 12th, either as a back-up or my main guy.



ETA - I think this is headed in the right direction, but the ranking needs to be massaged. How can I use the projections and ADPs to create a more accurate ratio? This may slice up that middle-of-the-pack group a bit more. Help.

The problem with this first cut at it (good effort, though) is that the price you pay for going early at TE is heavy - a very good RB or WR option (or possibly QB) is your alternative choice to the first 4-5 TEs.Now you get to the "sweet spot" of TEs 8-12, where you can get a guy who could move up to a good TE1 if things go right.

Here's what I get when I look at FPts / value of their ADP (using my redraft pick calculator for each ADP spot):

Winslow - 143 (51) 0.212

Witten - 140 (43) 0.248

Gates - 133 (52) 0.235

Gonzalez - 132 (60) 0.269

Clark - 115 (69) 0.280

Cooley - 114 (71) 0.290

Heap - 94 (89) 0.382

Davis - 92 (97) 0.482

Shockey - 93 (98) 0.503

Miller - 85 (101) 0.509

Daniels - 92 (110) 0.754

Scheffler - 95 (116) 0.950

Crumpler - 84 (118) 0.894

There's a huge drop from Cooley to Heap and then another to the next 3 guys.

Scheffler does jump out here, but you have to weigh waiting to long vs. getting good value.

 

[Neo]

I will be picking up Anthony Fasano in most drafts in the last round. I just think he is totally under the radar. He many not do anything, but he has the opportunity to.

 

[FUBAR]

Here's what I get when I look at FPts / value of their ADP (using my redraft pick calculator for each ADP spot): Winslow - 143 (51) 0.212 Witten - 140 (43) 0.248 Gates - 133 (52) 0.235 Gonzalez - 132 (60) 0.269 Clark - 115 (69) 0.280 Cooley - 114 (71) 0.290 Heap - 94 (89) 0.382 Davis - 92 (97) 0.482 Shockey - 93 (98) 0.503 Miller - 85 (101) 0.509 Daniels - 92 (110) 0.754 Scheffler - 95 (116) 0.950 Crumpler - 84 (118) 0.894 There's a huge drop from Cooley to Heap and then another to the next 3 guys.Scheffler does jump out here, but you have to weigh waiting to long vs. getting good value.

I'm sure you can see the flaws in the use of a FPts/ADP ratio. I suppose what you're looking for is the point where it jumps up more than others, and perhaps back down? Maybe if you did this for every position and could see a trend?Some sort of baseline - pts. might work. Something like TE12 - TEX = Y (where X is the current TE), compared to ADP? I'm not a stat whiz, although I used to love math, but I would think you'd want to use a ratio where both are heading in the same direction.

 

[-jb-]

The problem with this first cut at it (good effort, though) is that the price you pay for going early at TE is heavy - a very good RB or WR option (or possibly QB) is your alternative choice to the first 4-5 TEs.Now you get to the "sweet spot" of TEs 8-12, where you can get a guy who could move up to a good TE1 if things go right.Here's what I get when I look at FPts / value of their ADP (using my redraft pick calculator for each ADP spot):Winslow - 143 (51) 0.212 Witten - 140 (43) 0.248 Gates - 133 (52) 0.235 Gonzalez - 132 (60) 0.269 Clark - 115 (69) 0.280 Cooley - 114 (71) 0.290 Heap - 94 (89) 0.382 Davis - 92 (97) 0.482 Shockey - 93 (98) 0.503 Miller - 85 (101) 0.509 Daniels - 92 (110) 0.754 Scheffler - 95 (116) 0.950 Crumpler - 84 (118) 0.894 There's a huge drop from Cooley to Heap and then another to the next 3 guys.Scheffler does jump out here, but you have to weigh waiting to long vs. getting good value.

I see the big dropoff relative to points with Cooley, but I'm not following the factor on the end there. Can you explain?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The problem with this first cut at it (good effort, though) is that the price you pay for going early at TE is heavy - a very good RB or WR option (or possibly QB) is your alternative choice to the first 4-5 TEs.Now you get to the "sweet spot" of TEs 8-12, where you can get a guy who could move up to a good TE1 if things go right.Here's what I get when I look at FPts / value of their ADP (using my redraft pick calculator for each ADP spot):Winslow - 143 (51) 0.212 Witten - 140 (43) 0.248 Gates - 133 (52) 0.235 Gonzalez - 132 (60) 0.269 Clark - 115 (69) 0.280 Cooley - 114 (71) 0.290 Heap - 94 (89) 0.382 Davis - 92 (97) 0.482 Shockey - 93 (98) 0.503 Miller - 85 (101) 0.509 Daniels - 92 (110) 0.754 Scheffler - 95 (116) 0.950 Crumpler - 84 (118) 0.894 There's a huge drop from Cooley to Heap and then another to the next 3 guys.Scheffler does jump out here, but you have to weigh waiting to long vs. getting good value.

I see the big dropoff relative to points with Cooley, but I'm not following the factor on the end there. Can you explain?

You mean the 0.290?Take his ADP, look up the value in the pick calculator, and divide that into the FPs.

 

[-jb-]

The problem with this first cut at it (good effort, though) is that the price you pay for going early at TE is heavy - a very good RB or WR option (or possibly QB) is your alternative choice to the first 4-5 TEs.Now you get to the "sweet spot" of TEs 8-12, where you can get a guy who could move up to a good TE1 if things go right.Here's what I get when I look at FPts / value of their ADP (using my redraft pick calculator for each ADP spot):Winslow - 143 (51) 0.212 Witten - 140 (43) 0.248 Gates - 133 (52) 0.235 Gonzalez - 132 (60) 0.269 Clark - 115 (69) 0.280 Cooley - 114 (71) 0.290 Heap - 94 (89) 0.382 Davis - 92 (97) 0.482 Shockey - 93 (98) 0.503 Miller - 85 (101) 0.509 Daniels - 92 (110) 0.754 Scheffler - 95 (116) 0.950 Crumpler - 84 (118) 0.894 There's a huge drop from Cooley to Heap and then another to the next 3 guys.Scheffler does jump out here, but you have to weigh waiting to long vs. getting good value.

I see the big dropoff relative to points with Cooley, but I'm not following the factor on the end there. Can you explain?

You mean the 0.290?Take his ADP, look up the value in the pick calculator, and divide that into the FPs.

roger

 

[zanti8]

seems like a lot of my re-drafts i have the crumpler /zack miller combo . i think they are undervalued and could work well as a TEBC. i also have gates or daniels in several and i usually wait past value for te . winslows knees and shockeys whatever have moved them down my board.....

 

[jurb26]

Mercedes Lewis is the sleeper TE for 2008.

 

[travdogg]

I think Todd Heap is going to be a major value this year. Outside of Gates and Witten, I don't see any other TE that I like more. The best part is you can get Heap 40 picks after Gates and Witten are gone.

 

[Beefeaters]

McMichael will end up being the best value per average draft position at TE this year.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Mercedes Lewis is the sleeper TE for 2008.

I also like Ben Utecht and Anthony Fasano. Leonard Pope has an outside chance of succeeding with a possible (unfortunate) injury to either Fitz or Boldin.

 

[FUBAR]

seems like a lot of my re-drafts i have the crumpler /zack miller combo . i think they are undervalued and could work well as a TEBC. i also have gates or daniels in several and i usually wait past value for te . winslows knees and shockeys whatever have moved them down my board.....

I have either Daniels, Miller, or Scheffler in every league I'm in.

 

[BigRed]

I think Todd Heap is going to be a major value this year. Outside of Gates and Witten, I don't see any other TE that I like more.

You need glasses.

 

[travdogg]

I think Todd Heap is going to be a major value this year. Outside of Gates and Witten, I don't see any other TE that I like more.

You need glasses.

We'll see.

 

[Sweet Love]

In my Keep 3 league, I have drafted Cooley as TE 10 and TE 9 respectively the last two years. I know I can't do that again, but the guy is pretty automatic and has had a ton of offenses over the years and everything seems to work out just fine for him. I would grab him as high as TE 5-6 based on his past production, but I am really looking for that guy who will move to the 5-7 spot by the end of the year that I was able to grab as TE 10 again...I think Crumpler could be a nice short-term solution and I think if you coupled him with a Lewis or Davis you would be in good shape.

 

[ratbast]

I'm targeting Watson, Lewis and Pope late.

 

[lord_helmet]

Mercedes Lewis is the sleeper TE for 2008.

Why ? He has talent, but Jacksonville is a wasteland for TEs

 

[Banger]

TE used to be a position of scarcity just a few years ago but now there are plenty of palatable options available. With Gates coming back to the pack a bit it doesn't really make much sense to make an expensive investment in a TE. I'll be happy to grab the 7-8th off the board which will have a legit shot to be top 3.

 

[Tanner9919]

Pass on the number-crunching exercises, but overall this year is a tough call to make for TEs, IMO:

- Winslow looks great, but can you count on Anderson?

- Gates is Gates, but catches slipped a bit last year - is he worth what he'll cost?

- Gonzo did great but is really getting old and Croyle is a joke.....

- Witten was fantastic but only had 1 TD the year before with the norm somewhere in between - "regress to the norm" or is he really Gates-like?

Of the "2d tier" can guys like Cooley and Clark even come close to repeating?

What about some of the good-not-amazings like Miller, V Davis, Owens?

etc etc

you mean Daniels? Don't write off Witten as a 'fall back to the norm' type of player. Remember, in 2006 when he score just 1 TD, he'd just lost Sean Payton as his OC ..2006 was not the 'norm' for Witten..

in 2007 Jason Garrett came aboard as OC..he runs the same offense Norv Turner used when Garrett was a career backup to Aikman.Remember Jay Novachek? That's how Garrett uses Witten.. this offensive system is reliant on getting big-time production out of the TE position..

Owen Daniels is underrated...With AJ back, Daniels should get even MORE looks, as defenses will be more concerned with stopping AJ by doubling him..that'll leave Daniels one-on-one over the middle presumably against a slower LB..with a respectable running game, Houston could have a potent offense this season..