TripItUp
Footballguy
why would I do that when I can get better odds everywhere else. You are drafting pitts 3 rounds ahead of Thomas, I would hope you would offer that bet.
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TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
why would I do that when I can get better odds everywhere else. You are drafting pitts 3 rounds ahead of Thomas, I would hope you would offer that bet.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Where are you getting Bets on Pitts v Thomas heads up for the season?
I'm curious now to see what odds are looking like. Tone of your message indicates there are lots of places.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
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TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
@TripItUp - you did say you can have better production from Logan Thomas 3 rounds later. You also were pretty high on Irv Smith Jr. too.
So, you are saying Kyle Pitts will outpace Logan Thomas now. By how much? I just want to be able to compare your 5th and 6th round player's production with my 8th and 9th round. Maybe we can do a cumulative score to get you to come back with as much confidence as you showed on your previous posts.
So, you are saying Kyle Pitts will outpace Logan Thomas now. By how much? I just want to be able to compare your 5th and 6th round player's production with my 8th and 9th round. Maybe we can do a cumulative score to get you to come back with as much confidence as you showed on your previous posts.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Allow me to be overly clear...
I think there is a decent change that Logan Thomas can straight up outscore Kyle Pitts this season. Let's say those chances are 40%. Those aren't good odds for Pitts drafters taking him in the 3rd or early 4th.
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TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Lol, stand by your convictions man. That gap has closed pretty significantly. Logan Thomas is being drafted 8.03 and Kyle Pitts is being drafted 5.05. You can't keep changing Kyle Pitts to being a guy picked in the 3rd round, while Logan Thomas' draft position doesn't, regardless of how much you want to skew the truth. We didn't have your percentage on likelihood of what you wrote panning out. Good to know - how much of a point kicker do you want. At 100% certainty, how close will Thomas be to Pitts' point total, because now I am interested on some of this action. I love free money.
Edited: to respond to your double post
So, we are specifically going on Mike Clay's draft projections? Ok, cool. Kyle Pitts and Logan Thomas are more than 13 points away by the end of the season. Do you want to wager that then?
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TripItUp
Footballguy
Where are you getting 5.05 for Pitts?
ETA: FF calculator has him at 4.03 which is consistent with where I've seen him go in drafts.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
I just used his as an example since they are the most cited in industry...are there other widely accepted projections you'd like to use?
TripItUp
Footballguy
I am, man. My stance has been overly clear for over a month.
Pitts is being overdrafted (on average) and Thomas is better value at TE.
Thomas can outscore Pitts.
Let me know if I can be more clear.
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TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com
I have done quite a few redraft leagues and haven't seen him go early 4th.
I mean, projections are projections. If you feel comfortable with that number then I guess so do I. I am not trying to beat you into my way of thinking. You think Pitts is a liability because he is a rookie TE and historically they have not performed in the top 5.
I, on the otherhand, believe WR position has changed drastically since Vernon Davis and don't think Pitts will be on the line much. So, I value him more in line with a top 20 WR. McLaurin at WR #20 last year finished around 220 points.
Pitts ceiling >>> Logan Thomas' ceiling
I think we have already seen Thomas' ceiling. The injury to Curtis Samuel helps Thomas, but I still think Fitz looks McLaurin's way more and Gibson becomes more involved in the offense. I could easily see a regression in the 110 targets; while there is a ton of targets left over for Pitts to snatch up.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I'm not saying that Pitts will be an instant superstar. None of us can say that with certainty. But simply quoting history about rookie tight ends failing simply does not take into account Pitts' athletic ability. He's likely to garner at least 100 targets, and I believe his talent is sufficient to turn that into a top three tight end performance this year.
TripItUp
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
Vernon Davis was also an athletic tightend drafted highly.
Rookie season: 265 yards 3 TDs
I have Pitts projected higher, but assuming top 5 numbers is dangerous...using 3rd/4th round draft capital for a rookie TE...hard pass.
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TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Vernon Davis started 8 games and had a dog turd named Alex Smith at QB. Vernon Davis was a great prospect, but Pitts has put up close to 700 yards receiving twice and had significantly more TD's than Vernon Davis.
Pitts is a day 1 starter and 1b for targets on a team with a decent QB. Those 2 are not the same.
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Insoxicated
TripItUp
Footballguy
Since we can't seem to agree on ADP even though it is publically available, here are my general thoughts on Pitts
3rd Round Hard Pass
4th Round Hard Pass (this is his ADP)
5th Round Maybe, depends on draft strategy
6th Round Serious Consideration
7th Round definitely would take Pitts here
3rd Round Hard Pass
4th Round Hard Pass (this is his ADP)
5th Round Maybe, depends on draft strategy
6th Round Serious Consideration
7th Round definitely would take Pitts here
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TripItUp
Footballguy
oh cmon man... just admit you're not confident in your claim. Damn.
What claim are you talking about? I said Thomas can outscore Pitts, I still believe that.
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Insoxicated
I got him at pick 55
Thomas went pick 59
Kelce / Waller / Kittle / Hock / Andrews were off the board
($350 buy in PPR)
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Insoxicated
TripItUp
Footballguy
I got him at pick 55
Thomas went pick 59
($350 buy in PPR)
I think 5.5 is okay, depends on the format...but that's not terrible.
That's way higher for Thomas, FF Calculator has him at 6.07
So you were in weird draft.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I love the talent of Kyle Pitts and really really like what I've seen in the preseason clips of Zach Wilson. I think both players (and offenses) have legit potential to shoot out strong from the gates. What I am not as confident in is their ability as rookies to keep producing through Nov/Dec when weekly matchups become super serious. They wouldn't be the first rookies to hit a wall around mid-season, right when you would need them most.
Now if your rookie strategy is to clip them at value now, and then sell high mid-season, by all means, run.
There are plenty of historical outliers to my point here, but for me at least, it's one major consideration when it comes to depending on rookie players for key positions on my team.
Now if your rookie strategy is to clip them at value now, and then sell high mid-season, by all means, run.
There are plenty of historical outliers to my point here, but for me at least, it's one major consideration when it comes to depending on rookie players for key positions on my team.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
And it's not just his ADP, it is the guys he is going ahead of: Mark Andrews, Cooper Kupp, DJ Moore, Tyler Lockett, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I won't lie, I have a decent amount of Pitts in Best Ball just because why not a few swings on the max upside. However, I think in redraft we are seeing with Pitts (and Chase about a month ago) the combination of reactionary drafting to last years historic rookie WR class, the increased interest in dynasty and the growth of NFL draft fandom. There are probably a few more examples but Pitts is the poster boy. It's really reaching the most unlikely outcome. However, I can also acknowledge the upside.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
I expect to get 100 reasons why Pitts is so much better than Davis, all of which I'm well aware of.
Pointing out that Pitts could be an absolute bust at this ADP. Playing as a rookie pass catcher in the NFL is not easy.
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jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Well said. I have Pitts in dynasty, so my enthusiasm is meant to be long-term and not just this season.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Pitts will be a top-5 TE this year despite all contrary analysis.
Throw the ball, catch the ball. It's not that complicated.
Throw the ball, catch the ball. It's not that complicated.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep. The only analysis I see that’s faulty is folks in here still talking about 1st year TE struggles.
it’s cute they think he’s going to play TE, like, ever.
I also suspect that none of the naysayers have seen his college clips. He’s a matchup nightmare who runs great routes, is a capable receiver and is a bear to bring down in the open field.
Dude had a single catch this preseason that traveled 3 yards at best, and he turned it into 27 with 2 broken tackles.
Pitts is a legitimate weapon. I don’t care what he’s listed as, he’s a wide receiver. And he landed on the perfect team wirh a QB who’s had a lot of success with big bodied receivers.
Bariring injury, he’s going to be plenty valuable at his 5th round ADP.
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finfansteve
Footballguy
Listed as a tight end but basically will be a wide receiver. If he stats even slightly better than average he will be an advantage for every owner that drafted him and extremely valuable. If he sputters this year he will sink quite a few teams including at least three of mine where he’s my starter at tight end
Stat Correction
Footballguy
I've got a couple of shares of Pitts, even though I fully understand the basic rule about rookie TE's. I was burned by GB rookie Jermichael Finley back in 2015, although he was a 3rd round pick for the Pack. As we know, however, there are exceptions to every rule. You know....kinda like 43 year old QB's don't win Super Bowls.
Pitt's situation is near perfect, but only time will tell. He could bust, be mediocre, or set the league on fire. Gotta admit, though, I haven't been this excited about a rookie TE since Shockey's first year as a NYG.
Pitt's situation is near perfect, but only time will tell. He could bust, be mediocre, or set the league on fire. Gotta admit, though, I haven't been this excited about a rookie TE since Shockey's first year as a NYG.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Check out Calvin's rookie season. Look, if we want to talk absolute theoretical upside of a freak like Pitts, it's the top scoring player in all of fantasy football. But it's his rookie season. And he's completely unproven as an NFL player. And his HC is new to the team. And his OL (and QB) may struggle.
Calvin went for 48/756/4 in 15 games his rookie year. He wasn't playing TE either.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh I know - I’ve seen it.
but the season starts tomorrow and I’m bored. I’ve done all my drafting, consumed literally every word about FF and seemingly watched all of YouTube, so all I’m left to is wild speculation about Pitts to drive the hype train completely out of control.
Then Sunday will come and we will have to live in whatever reality presents itself.
Until then,
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
What if Pitts emerges as the redzone target?
12 TD's - 1400 yards with around 100-105 catches. This should put him in the ballpark.
Roughly 6 catches for 80 yards a game and the primary redzone target scoring 12 TD's. Obviously, there is room for fluctuation in any category but he will be one of the primary targets in this offense, which should be forced to pass frequently.
The beauty is he could put up 250 ff points and he will still be the TE1, because every person out here talking about how TE's don't score fantasy points will be salivating and the potential next year. There has never been an appreciating asset as great as owning Kyle Pitts in Fantasy. According to @TripItUp the baseline is just 256 yards and 3TD's scored by Vernon Davis. I think Pitts easily triples that number.
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I'm sorry, you misunderstood me. I'm not asking how many points he needs to score to be the overall TE1 in scoring.
I'm asking what's the minimum level of production required for him to unseat Kelce as the overall dynasty TE1 heading into the 2022 offseason.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s actually really close to the ceiling I suggested either earlier in this topic (or somewhere else on FBG, maybe the TE4-6 topic)
it truly is the perfect storm: Julio gone, Gauge a relatively weak 2nd WR option, a QB who’s had incredible success with tight ends (including playing with an all-time great for 5 years), and with a defense that should force a lot of passing.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
i’m not sure he’d even need to have Kelce’s production. If he’s 80% of Kelce this year, age and upside should vault him there.
Kelce will be 32 next season. I can’t imagine taking a 32 y/o in the 1st round. But then I struggled with the idea of taking a 31 y/o in the 1st round this year.
I don't think any reasonable person thinks Pitts will match or come close to matching Kelce this year. It sounds like you're saying Pitts must come within some high percentage of Kelce's numbers, but I don't believe that's true.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
70-80% isn’t a crazy expectation, but you’re probably right. Even if he’s 60% as a rookie, the projected growth will catapult him to TE1-2 status for 2022 redraft.
At some point, dynasty owners could have a hard time holding all that value because there should be an inflection point where there’s consensus opinion that he’s the TE1 of the future.
And at that point the offers will be substantial.
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greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
In my home league I was pumped to scoop him up at 5.11. Hock and Andrews went much earlier.
To balance out the conversation though, here are other things that happened:
Javonte Williams went before my next pick but so did Logan Thomas.
So what's more valuable? Javonte/Henderson as your RB3 plus pu-pu platter TE (where I had everyone beyond Logan Thomas) or a 65/35 shot at a TE that's a clear 2-3 point weekly advantage over half of your league and grabbing Sermon later. I chose Pitts. Plus, it's fantasy football, it's fun to root for things like this to happen.
To balance out the conversation though, here are other things that happened:
Javonte Williams went before my next pick but so did Logan Thomas.
So what's more valuable? Javonte/Henderson as your RB3 plus pu-pu platter TE (where I had everyone beyond Logan Thomas) or a 65/35 shot at a TE that's a clear 2-3 point weekly advantage over half of your league and grabbing Sermon later. I chose Pitts. Plus, it's fantasy football, it's fun to root for things like this to happen.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I managed to land Henderson 6.12 & JaWill 8.12 after taking Pitts 5.01
IDP, so the defensive runs that started in the 5th helped, but both RBs fell further than they should have.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Anything > 60/700/5
He's got it all going. College production, age, draft position, decent team, etc.. Posting a season like that in his age 21 season would be enough for me to slide him all the way to the top. The only other TE he's competing with after this year is Hockenson. I have the tinglies that Hock is going to post a monster season if he's healthy.
