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TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
Banger
Footballguy
generally that tends to be good for receivers due to being behind and getting meaningless garbage stats.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
that lineup info is excellent news - sounds like he is more of a WR than a TE
Unfortunately, they whiffed on a good garbage script this week. Sometimes you suck so bad you don’t even get the garbage.
Banger
Footballguy
certainly wasn't a good game but it was one game. the targets were good, the usage was great, the results weren't, it happens.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Matt Ryan was hot garbage Sunday. I think we'll see a better outing from Pitts vs. Tampa.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Having Ridley and PItts, I watched the game off DVR yesterday and came away with a really bad feeling about this offense and my team for the year for that matter.
Davis can push a pile one yard but isn't special in any way. Runs just like you think he would given his build. No shimmy or shake. Gainwell and Sanders were kind of a stark contrast while watching. The Patterson runs you can see him looking a little more "Henryesque" in that he was getting more of a head of steam before he hits the hole.
The whole offense was just so bad for so many drives, I couldn't tell if it was that the offensive line was just horrifically bad, or that the Eagles D Line was much better than I expected, especially rushing the passer (and even more so in obvious passing situations). As the game wore on and Matt Ryan was getting battered, he started to look more and more like toast.
Any kind of crispness that his passes had in the first half seemed to evaporate. Passes kind of floating and not really being zipped or with touch and Ridley and Pitts weren't really getting open for him. The play calling was bad but it's hard to tell how bad when it seemed like nothing was working...
Back to Pitts, the 8 targets is kind of reassuring. After reading a lot of hype in the pre-draft and then watching a lot of football this weekend, however, Pitts didn't really jump off the page to me. He looked a little slight and wasn't a yac monster. He has a lot of learning to do on the job and hopefully will be able to make some strides this year.
I'm not panicking per se but my expectations have been dialed down to "would have rather paid up for Waller or waited for Everett in the 16th." At this point, however I think he's at least safe to keep in the lineup and hope for things to improve.
Fingers crossed. Also, the whole offense needs time to gel. Lots of penalties that slowed things down. Here's hoping.
Davis can push a pile one yard but isn't special in any way. Runs just like you think he would given his build. No shimmy or shake. Gainwell and Sanders were kind of a stark contrast while watching. The Patterson runs you can see him looking a little more "Henryesque" in that he was getting more of a head of steam before he hits the hole.
The whole offense was just so bad for so many drives, I couldn't tell if it was that the offensive line was just horrifically bad, or that the Eagles D Line was much better than I expected, especially rushing the passer (and even more so in obvious passing situations). As the game wore on and Matt Ryan was getting battered, he started to look more and more like toast.
Any kind of crispness that his passes had in the first half seemed to evaporate. Passes kind of floating and not really being zipped or with touch and Ridley and Pitts weren't really getting open for him. The play calling was bad but it's hard to tell how bad when it seemed like nothing was working...
Back to Pitts, the 8 targets is kind of reassuring. After reading a lot of hype in the pre-draft and then watching a lot of football this weekend, however, Pitts didn't really jump off the page to me. He looked a little slight and wasn't a yac monster. He has a lot of learning to do on the job and hopefully will be able to make some strides this year.
I'm not panicking per se but my expectations have been dialed down to "would have rather paid up for Waller or waited for Everett in the 16th." At this point, however I think he's at least safe to keep in the lineup and hope for things to improve.
Fingers crossed. Also, the whole offense needs time to gel. Lots of penalties that slowed things down. Here's hoping.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Tampa is built to stop the run. Dak threw for 400 yards against them.
Having said that, Atlanta looked like Matt Ryan is cooked, so I'm avoiding them until they provide proof of life.
Having said that, Atlanta looked like Matt Ryan is cooked, so I'm avoiding them until they provide proof of life.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Thank you for this color. Didn't see the game and this is exactly what I was afraid of as a fellow Ridley/Pitts manager.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Doesn’t really inspire confidence, wouldn’t you want him out there winded to draw coverage at least? I get that he’s a rookie but you invested your 4th in him
TripItUp
Footballguy
Makes a ton of sense.
What is the best rookie TE rookie season in the history of the NFL?
Chaka
Footballguy
One of the biggest reasons to be optimistic about Pitts to perform at a fantasy starter level as a rookie is that it was highly unlikely that he would line up as a traditional TE more than 15-20% of the time.
He really is being deployed as a giant slot receiver most of the time.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't think that the first series of his entire career not being deployed on every snap is really worth noting on any level. It's the first drive of a long season at the beginning of a, potentially, long career.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
I’m not bashing pitts I’m speaking of the coaching. It’s the first drive so I doubt he’s tired as he said, this sounds like a coach running cover for himself
Chaka
Footballguy
I never meant to suggest you were bashing Pitts. I apologize if it came off that way.
I think this is just a nothing situation in general, for Pitts or Smith. There are dozens of possibilities for why Pitts wasn't in on the goal line package. Smith may be a terrible coach, Pitts may be dumber than a bag of hammers, the analytics favored other players, Pitts was gassed...etc.
More than anything this feels like typical overreaction to a single data point.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Agreed on the micro of the play. I guess I can’t call the whole game a macro, it was one game and the first game. The tendency about smith that concerned me was trying to make the falcons fit his system and not scheme for what he had. Mike Davis is a journeyman and Derrick Henry is a gold jacket guy 2000 yard rusher. What worked there isn’t going to work here with this talent. They moved to take pitts at an unprecedentedly high level. So you think he’d at least be featuredChaka said:
but as you said, one set of downs
Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah, I have no idea about Arthur as a HC, I never thought LaFleur would get a sniff at an HC job after his stint in Tennessee.
There isn't a ton of legit #1 offensive talent in ATL after Ryan, Ridley & Matthews. I think Pitts is next on the list but, who really knows?
Still there should be enough talent for a good HC to put out a competent offense but who knows if Arthur is that guy? Only time will tell.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I'm not worried about Pitts. Yet. But that Tampa secondary is not good. So if Pitts can't get separation in week two, I'm going to be concerned for him.
Chaka
Footballguy
Why do you think the TB secondary is not good?
No shame in getting torched by the Dallas offense.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
well Mike Ditka had 1k yards in 1961.TripItUp said:
Jeremy Shockey did pretty well his rookie season, 780 yards, 7TD or close to that.
Evan Engram did well.
Those come off the top of my head I'm sure I'm missing one or two.
Pitts isn't any of these guys, he's never going to be the top notch TE they drafted him to be, not in an Arthur Smith offense anyways. If he gets 45 catches I'd be surprised.
The highway is littered with the Vernon Davis's of the world , highly coveted TEs drafted way too high, who never pan out.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Yes, but are they actually going to use him as a TE. I expect he will mostly be a big slot WR. And just for his own financial future, he wants' to be known as a WR and not a TE in case he ever gets a franchise tag. If that utilization pattern holds up all year he might get classified as a WR next year in fantasy drafts.
As long as Hurst is healthy and on the field, why not let him be the traditional TE, while Pitts can also go in line if you want a double TE look, but otherwise is mostly a WR.
Chaka
Footballguy
I think it is absolutely fair to question Arthur's ability to deploy a TE to high end fantasy production in his offense.
What I question is whether or not Pitts is a true TE in the Ditka sense. I am not sure how much time he will be spending locked into a tackle with his hand on the ground.
Seems more like a big slot WR than anything. Certainly doesn't guarantee success but it shortens the learning curve.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I wasn't expecting Ryan to be so horrible. My main take coming into the season was that they would pass 600 times and Pitts must get tons of targets. But if they are just hot garbage it won't matter if he is Mike Ditka 2.0. I didn't draft Pitts very often in redraft and only a couple shares of Ridley but dang they looked bad. Like worst team in the NFL bad. A contender for it anyway.
Chaka
Footballguy
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Valid point. I'll alter my statement to read: the Tampa secondary is the weakness of that defense.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Pitts did everything I projected him to do week 1. Played the majority of his snaps from the slot or split out wide, and had 8 targets, tied for the team lead.
it was one week.
Weren’t you the dude claiming you “could get twice the production x rounds later in Thomas”?
Yeah - he went 5/7 for 45 yards with 0 TDs. You gonna “admit you were wrong?”
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massraider
Footballguy
There's this guy in the Trey Sermon thread that keeps pushing him relentlessly, talking about his "tape" from college. That's the extent of his analysis.
Anyway, that guy's not panicking on Sermon, an ordinary athlete from the 3rd round, so I'm probably not gonna toss out the top 5 draft pick freak athlete.
Chaka
Footballguy
I am not certain 60 years is a relevant window in todays NFL. With year round study and conditioning plus the vast number of rules to make the game safer (i.e. higher scoring) I am not sure much more than 5-10 years can be used as any frame of reference for judging how good a player may perform as a rookie in 2021.
Peter King pointed out a good example: in 1996 there were 3 starting QBs under 25 on opening day, today there are 11 (with Justin Fields waiting in the wings). He attributes that change to high school offenses becoming more complex and throwing the ball a lot more.
A QB has thrown for 5,000 yards 12 times in NFL history, only one of those seasons occurred before 2008. 10 of those seasons happened after 2011. If you look back to 1967 a quarterback has thrown for 4,000 yards 198 times (Joe Namath was the first in 1967), 135 of those seasons (68%) happened after 2008, 109 of them were after 2011 (55%). There have been 67 4,500 yard passing seasons, the first was Fouts in 1980; 53 of them since 2008 (79%) and 45 since 2011 (67%).
60 years of data seems like a huge stretch for making any type of comparison. 10 years tops.
Your point still holds as the data doesn't get much better for rookie TE performance over the last decade but there have been only eight TEs drafted in the first round since 2011 (Hockenson, Fant, Hurst, Howard, Engram, Njoku, Ebron & Eifert) only two of which were drafted in the top 10 (Hockenson #8 in 2019 and Ebron #10 in 2014) and only two of the eight were full time starters (Howard & Eifert).
Their average performance was 14 games played, 9 starts, 59 targets, 34 receptions, 416 yards & 3 TD
Evan Engram had the best season with 115 targets, 64 catches, 722 yards & 6 TDs
So while the data shows that investment in rookie TEs to perform as a fantasy starter is not a great idea, we have to acknowledge that the data set is pretty tiny. Pitts is a week 1 starter and received 8 targets his first game, which puts him ahead of the curve...for now.
Todem
Footballguy
Very
The game in the last 5 years has changed drastically!!!! Period. You can’t even compare a lot of offensive trends from 10-15 years ago let alone 25-30 years ago. Defense is not played in any way the same with all the rule changes. Offensive schemes have changed a lot too. And QB play has gone into a different direction as well. Bigger, stronger, faster, RPO’s the speed in the game has improved across the board and guys are “allowed” to truly run free in todays “safety” first mentality.
I have no horse in this race.....but your post Chaka is an example of why I read stuff in here in the Shark Pool.
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eric rymer
Footballguy
Depends on how you looked at it going in? I only play my one local keeper/dynasty and I took him at 1.1. I’m. It expecting a huge rookie campaign but I also think the path is there for it to happen. Just looking at the long game for me.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Agree that Dynasty is totally different.
my criticism has been aimed at redrafters taking him at ADP or earlier.
Weebs210
Footballguy
You can't gloat after week one. Absolutely nothing has been proven yet. We need some more data points. The targets are there let's see what happens
TripItUp
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
his ADP went from late 5th to early 5th to as high as 3rd just before the season started, so you’re not exactly being specific here.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
No, it wasn't late 5th. It was 4th round in 12 team PPR. I've provided my sources(FantasyPros/FFPC/FantasyCalculator)
You have provided none.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I got him in the 5th.
I don’t care about your sources. I watched his ADP closely & his climb into the 4th was well documented on the “4-6 TE” topic.
Ardbeg4ever
Footballguy
The past 2 years, the ATL QB (not sure if Ryan played all the games) has scored 1 PPG more on the road. Maybe some of that was garbage time IDK. I went streaming QB this year and am stuck with Ryan/Ben/Lawrence, ugh.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It was Ryan the whole time, yeah.
Dude had an MVP season & almost (should have) won a Super Bowl.
He’s wildly underrated. It’s 1 game. I’m sure he will have better ones. He’s on the downside of his career, but unless he took a nose dive this offseason, he’s not as bad as he looked week 1.
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steelerfan1
Footballguy
I don’t think it’s Ryan as much as the o line. It didn’t look great in preseason to me, and not sure how much it improves. Look what happened to Lamar last week. If the line has changed dramatically it can really hurt.
