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TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (6 Viewers)

TripItUp said:
Are all of you Pitts lovers eating crow yet for overdrafting him in 2021 redrafts...tried to warn you.   :coffee:
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Wut

What crow is there to eat over a rookie TE who came in with 68 receptions for 1000+ yards?

I wouldn’t go spraining your arm patting yourself on the back for being wrong. 

 
TripItUp said:
whoops, that's right...got the one TD.  

You could have done so much better with that pick last year...I suspect not many Kyle Pitts teams did well last year.  Drafting Rookie TEs in the high rounds is a great way to lose at fantasy football.
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3rd/4th round redraft picks bust at over a 50% rate so it's likely a lot of championship teams had players a lot worse than Pitts come from that pick.  Pitts went off the board as TE3 and finished TE5 despite fluky low TDs, so a pretty reasonable pick where he went.  The 3 guys right after him in fantasypros ADP were Jacobs, Zeke, and Montgomery.

I had the ADP's in my original post mixed up.  Those were 2022 ADP.  In 2021 Pitts' ADP was 48th.  Here are the 8 players taken on either side of him.

Robert Woods
Julio Jones
Amari Cooper
Myles Gaskin
Aaron Rodgers
Adam Thielen
Kareem Hunt
Russell Wilson
Cooper Kupp
Mike Davis
Dak Prescott
Mark Andrews
Tyler Lockett
Raheem Mostert
DJ Moore
Darrell Henderson

He's easily in the top 20% of that list, if not higher.  So yes, you could have gotten Kupp or Andrews so 2 players that were clearly much better than him if you nailed it exactly right.  

But passing on Pitts you were far more likely to end up with an outright useless droppable bust than someone clearly better.  You could have done a LOT worse with that pick.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
This is silly.  3rd/4th round redraft picks bust at over a 50% rate so it's likely a lot of championship teams had players a lot worse than Pitts come from that pick.  Pitts went off the board as TE3 and finished TE5 despite fluky low TDs, so a pretty reasonable pick where he went.  The 3 guys right after him in fantasypros ADP were Jacobs, Zeke, and Montgomery.

The 3rd round in fantasy pros adp last year was...

AJ Brown
Aaron Jones
Keenan Allen
Antonio Gibson
Patrick Mahomes
Mike Evans
Kyle Pitts
Josh Jacobs
Ezekiel Elliot
David Montgomery
Tee Higgins
Diontae Johnson

Not a lot of standouts in there.  A few busts, no real breakouts, and a bunch of guys pretty comparable to Pitts in that they were plug and play starters but not really difference makers.  Even Mahomes didn't really end up being any better as he was basically the same as Pitts (QB5 vs. Pitts TE5) except that QB was even more replaceable and easy to find than TE last year.
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You probably missed the playoffs with that pick though. That's the stinger, right? 

 
Are we really taking victory laps right now about a 20 year-old entering the league at one of the toughest positions to transition to from the college level and proceeding to put together the greatest rookie TE season we’ve ever seen? And he did all this only scoring one touchdown on the season? 
 

That should tell you all you need to know about how good Pitts is, and how scary good he’s going to be. 

 
TripItUp said:
whoops, that's right...got the one TD.  
 
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now sit there in your wrongness and contemplate how wrong you were. :lol:  

(I kid, I kid - none of this is life & death) 

TripItUp said:
You could have done so much better with that pick last year...I suspect not many Kyle Pitts teams did well last year.  Drafting Rookie TEs in the high rounds is a great way to lose at fantasy football.
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I got him at 6.12 and he provided me with excellent PPR production.

At 1.08 in SF Dynasty he was an absolute bargain.

My team won the 1st 8 games & CMC went down, I lost Higgins briefly, Mixon missed a game, and Ridley checked out. Pitts was hardly the reason I lost in redraft last year.

 
JoeJoe88 said:
Are we really taking victory laps right now about a 20 year-old entering the league at one of the toughest positions to transition to from the college level and proceeding to put together the greatest rookie TE season we’ve ever seen? And he did all this only scoring one touchdown on the season? 
 

That should tell you all you need to know about how good Pitts is, and how scary good he’s going to be. 
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I never said a word about his talent. 

 
candian fantasy guy said:
I never said a word about his talent. 
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exactly, everybody knows he's talented...unfortunately, most HOF TEs are not good fantasy TEs their rookie season, which is why he was a terrible pick for redrafts in 2021...I tried to warn the "Shark" Pool Pitts pimpers, but here we are.

 
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TripItUp said:
that wasn't his ADP...must have been a guppy league.  :)
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No, it’s my 20 year running IDP league. it was just an early draft, and most of my league shares your skepticism about rookie TEs. 

So you’re basically saying you’re a guppy because you wouldn’t have taken him at his ADP either. Oh the irony! :doh:  

 
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candian fantasy guy said:
He kinda was though. He had 2 big weeks before doing well in the FF playoffs. Lots of "meh" in there. 
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Yeah, well - as crappy as my team became after week 8 it hardly mattered for me. He did win me a game or 2, and certainly contributed to the season high points total that won me 10% of the kitty. And his one monster game helped me to a $50 in-season prize for the “AWB” (butt-whoopin bonus) 

And he was a better value than Waller in the 2nd, or Hock in the late 4th/early 5th, as it turned out. It wasn’t a great year in redraft for TE in general.

that said, dude had - 1k+ season. Had the falcons offense not imploded without Ridley, I expect he would have scored a few more TDs, too. 

Anyway, it’s a silly discussion. I’m thrilled to have the dude in dynasty, and going forward I think he’s going to be a fine redraft TE. Trip’s claim that he was a bust with 68/1K is preposterous.  He had a record season for a rookie TE. 

 
Well, being the fantasy football savants that you clearly are, let’s stop living in the past! The people want to know-is Pitts a fade again this year, or are we safe to take the plunge?! 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Yeah, well - as crappy as my team became after week 8 it hardly mattered for me. He did win me a game or 2, and certainly contributed to the season high points total that won me 10% of the kitty. And his one monster game helped me to a $50 in-season prize for the “AWB” (butt-whoopin bonus) 

And he was a better value than Waller in the 2nd, or Hock in the late 4th/early 5th, as it turned out. It wasn’t a great year in redraft for TE in general.

that said, dude had - 1k+ season. Had the falcons offense not imploded without Ridley, I expect he would have scored a few more TDs, too. 

Anyway, it’s a silly discussion. I’m thrilled to have the dude in dynasty, and going forward I think he’s going to be a fine redraft TE. Trip’s claim that he was a bust with 68/1K is preposterous.  He had a record season for a rookie TE. 
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I agree with lots in there and he absolutely is an awesome asset in Dynasty. 

Was he a bust in re-draft? Probably not, but there was several better options at that ADP that could have served your team better. Too many 3-6pts weeks, IMO. 

 
candian fantasy guy said:
You probably missed the playoffs with that pick though. That's the stinger, right? 
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Why would you have missed the playoffs because you picked TE5 in the 4th round? 

Virtually every team in the playoffs in most leagues picked someone worse than Kyle Pitts in the top 4 rounds of their draft.

The following players were drafted in the 3rd/4th round last year.

Antonio Gibson
DK Metcalf
DeAndre Hopkins
Calvin Ridley
Clyde Edwards Helaire
AJ Brown
Darren Waller
David Montgomery
Allen Robinson
Kyler Murray
Robert Woods
Julio Jones
Myles Gaskin
Amari Cooper
Aaron Rodgers
Adam Thielen
Kareem Hunt
Russell Wilson

That's 18 of the 24 players taken in the 3rd/4th round last year that were arguably worse picks than Pitts.  At least 14 of those guys were much worse picks than Pitts.  So Pitts was maybe the 7th or 8th best pick out of the 24 players taken in the 3rd/4th round last year.  FAR from disqualifying anyone that took him from the playoffs.

 
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I had the ADP's in my original post mixed up.  Those were 2022 ADP.  In 2021 Pitts' ADP was 48th.  Here are the 8 players taken on either side of him.

Robert Woods
Julio Jones
Amari Cooper
Myles Gaskin
Aaron Rodgers
Adam Thielen
Kareem Hunt
Russell Wilson
Cooper Kupp
Mike Davis
Dak Prescott
Mark Andrews
Tyler Lockett
Raheem Mostert
DJ Moore
Darrell Henderson

He's easily in the top 20% of that list, if not higher.  So yes, you could have gotten Kupp or Andrews so 2 players that were clearly much better than him if you nailed it exactly right.  

But passing on Pitts you were far more likely to end up with an outright useless droppable bust than someone clearly better.  You could have done a LOT worse with that pick.

 
JoeJoe88 said:
Well, being the fantasy football savants that you clearly are, let’s stop living in the past! The people want to know-is Pitts a fade again this year, or are we safe to take the plunge?! 
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I am definitely fading him at #30 overall, his current consensus ranking at FantasyPros.  

Really don't like the downgrade at QB, and don't like London coming in taking some redzone looks.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Why would you have missed the playoffs because you picked TE5 in the 3rd/4th round? 

Virtually every team in the playoffs in most leagues picked someone worse than Kyle Pitts in the top 4 rounds of their draft.

The following players were drafted in the 3rd/4th round last year.

Antonio Gibson
DK Metcalf
DeAndre Hopkins
Calvin Ridley
Clyde Edwards Helaire
AJ Brown
Darren Waller
David Montgomery
Allen Robinson
Kyler Murray
Robert Woods
Julio Jones
Myles Gaskin
Amari Cooper
Aaron Rodgers
Adam Thielen
Kareem Hunt
Russell Wilson

That's 18 of the 24 players taken in the 3rd/4th round last year that were arguably worse picks than Pitts.  At least 14 of those guys were much worse picks than Pitts.  So Pitts was maybe the 7th or 8th best pick out of the 24 players taken in the 3rd/4th round last year.  FAR from disqualifying anyone that took him from the playoffs.
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You guys are stuck on TE# whatever, TE's scored low last season. So many of those guys absolutely crushed him. 

Week 8-15, playoff make or break weeks, right? 

8 = 3.3

9=9.2

10=10

11=5.9

12=4.6

13=8.8

14=11.1

15=11.7

Championship?

 
Pitts is going #16 overall in FFPC redrafts...that's TE premium, but I'm still not taking him there.

He appears to be overdrafted everywhere again.

 
I  did one startup last year with some FBG's here and took Pitts at 1.6(TE premium). If I was in a startup this year I'd probably take him 1.1, would be one of big 4 for sure.

I did over 40 redrafts last year in TE premium leagues and drafted Pitts exactly zero times because I thought his cost was way to high for a rookie TE.

Just trying to say there was a major difference to me, and I assumed most people, on what his current redraft value was and his dynasty value is considering he was a 20 year old TE starting the season. Kind of odd to me that anyone could look at last year and be in any way down on his future.

 
menobrown said:
I  did one startup last year with some FBG's here and took Pitts at 1.6(TE premium). If I was in a startup this year I'd probably take him 1.1, would be one of big 4 for sure.

I did over 40 redrafts last year in TE premium leagues and drafted Pitts exactly zero times because I thought his cost was way to high for a rookie TE.

Just trying to say there was a major difference to me, and I assumed most people, on what his current redraft value was and his dynasty value is considering he was a 20 year old TE starting the season. Kind of odd to me that anyone could look at last year and be in any way down on his future.
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I think the future is very bright for him. I am just discussing that pick at ADP in redraft last season. 

 
candian fantasy guy said:
You guys are stuck on TE# whatever, TE's scored low last season. So many of those guys absolutely crushed him. 

Week 8-15, playoff make or break weeks, right? 

8 = 3.3

9=9.2

10=10

11=5.9

12=4.6

13=8.8

14=11.1

15=11.7

Championship?
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Look at that list of players, man.  Half of the guys drafted around Pitts weren't even on a fantasy ROSTER by the time those weeks you're posting rolled around.

It's beyond silly hyperbole to say stuff like you probably didn't make the playoffs if you picked Pitts 48th.  That's just ridiculous.  Almost every team in every league picked a player WORSE than Pitts some time around that same spot.

I didn't draft Pitts in any redraft leagues (I only play in a couple at this point, mostly dynasty), nor was I involved in the original discussion people had on his redraft value.  But the stuff being thrown around here is silly.  He turned out to be, at worst, a mid-level pick in the area he was going in drafts.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Look at that list of players, man.  Half of the guys drafted around Pitts weren't even on a fantasy ROSTER by the time those weeks you're posting rolled around.

It's beyond silly hyperbole to say stuff like you probably didn't make the playoffs if you picked Pitts 48th.  That's just ridiculous.  Almost every team in every league picked a player WORSE than Pitts some time around that same spot.

I didn't draft Pitts in any redraft leagues (I only play in a couple at this point, mostly dynasty), nor was I involved in the original discussion people had on his redraft value.  But the stuff being thrown around here is silly.  He turned out to be, at worst, a mid-level pick in the area he was going in drafts.
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What is a mid level pick? Did you see that weekly avg of points down the stretch, when he was absolutely in your lineup. 

Many of that "half those guys" were either injured or not even a consideration to put in your lineup with any kind of expectation. The other half is pretty darn solid if you ask me, kinda hints at drafting QB1 before your TE1. 

 
Fun discussion.  It looks like Alex Cates actually put together a database of ownership percentage of each player by playoff teams.  There's no perfect measure of how much drafting a guy helped or hurt your playoff chances but this is just about the closest thing we have.

Here are Pitts and the guys drafted around him.

42. Robert Woods - 35%
43. Julio Jones - 41%
44. Amari Cooper - 41%
45. Myles Gaskin - 42%
46. Aaron Rodgers - 52%
47. Adam Thielen - 40%
48. Kyle Pitts - 47%
49. Kareem Hunt - 45%
50. Russell Wilson - 41%
51. Cooper Kupp - 70%
52. Mike Davis - 32%
53. Dak Prescott - 44%
54.Tyler Lockett - 48%

Obviously not a perfect data set.  It looks like he pulled the data from all ESPN redraft leagues, and obviously a lot of correlation rather than causation here.  But the bottom line is saying that drafting Pitts probably made you miss the playoffs is a fair amount of hyperbole.  He was a mediocre, probably even above average pick in that spot relative to the options that were realistically being chosen in the same spot.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Fun discussion.  It looks like Alex Cates actually put together a database of ownership player of each owner by playoff teams.  There's no perfect measure of how much drafting a guy helped or hurt your playoff chances but this is just about the closest thing we have.

Here are Pitts and the guys drafted around him.

42. Robert Woods - 35%
43. Julio Jones - 41%
44. Amari Cooper - 41%
45. Myles Gaskin - 42%
46. Aaron Rodgers - 52%
47. Adam Thielen - 40%
48. Kyle Pitts - 47%
49. Kareem Hunt - 45%
50. Russell Wilson - 41%
51. Cooper Kupp - 70%
52. Mike Davis - 32%
53. Dak Prescott - 44%
54.Tyler Lockett - 48%

Obviously not a perfect data set.  It looks like he pulled the data from all ESPN redraft leagues, and obviously a lot of correlation rather than causation here.  But the bottom line is saying that drafting Pitts probably made you miss the playoffs is a fair amount of hyperbole.  He was a mediocre, probably even above average pick in that spot relative to the options that were realistically being chosen in the same spot.
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I would like to see numbers for 12 team leagues only. ESPN as a platform kinda sucks and has way too many small leagues of 8 and 10 teams. Interesting nonetheless.  

 
candian fantasy guy said:
I agree with lots in there and he absolutely is an awesome asset in Dynasty. 

Was he a bust in re-draft? Probably not, but there was several better options at that ADP that could have served your team better. Too many 3-6pts weeks, IMO. 
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Don’t disagree. Had he scored 6-8 TD instead of 1, it would have been substantially better. But it is what it is.

i just don’t think it’s “i told you so” worthy, and I’m not big on “I told ya so’s” regardless. People who were high on Pitts are still probably high on Pitts, and based on the things said in here, no season would Have been good enough for Trip to not come out crowing. ;)  

 
I mostly play on FFPC where Pitts was an ADP of 36 in September and 36 in August. Looking directly at guys going right afterwards is kind of funny as they are not very good. Guys like Swift, James and Allen Robinson, Carson, R Woods and Montgomery. 

Hindsight is so much fun!

 
In a 12 team best tourney with 384 leagues, K Pitts was TE10 and 19% in terms of "making the playoffs". Guys like Ertz, Hooper and Kmet are ahead of him at 20%. 

Small sample. 

 
candian fantasy guy said:
I mostly play on FFPC where Pitts was an ADP of 36 in September and 36 in August. Looking directly at guys going right afterwards is kind of funny as they are not very good. Guys like Swift, James and Allen Robinson, Carson, R Woods and Montgomery. 

Hindsight is so much fun!
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Precisely. I have no regrets about getting him after his ADP, and looking back at my draft board, most of the guys taken in the round near him had pretty bad seasons as well. 

At the time he was the last of the TEs with the potential to put up top 5 TE numbers, and he technically did. In a year that was down for the 3-5 guys.

But I’d make that same move 100 times out of 100, because having a difference making TE can be a *monster* advantage even in non TE-Premium due to the scarcity of the position. 

Had Pitts scored a TE every other week (and he had a few called back due to ticky tacky penalties, often away from the ball)) he would have been a semi-regular league winner.

But he only scored 1, to go along with 68/1000+

As for his 3rd round ADP this year, it could certainly pay dividends. MM isn’t really l a downgrade and I see London as helping Pitts, since last year he was smothered a lot, and MM should be a check-down dink & dunk guy.  He could approach 90 receptions.

TDs TBD, of course. 

 
JoeJoe88 said:
Are we really taking victory laps right now about a 20 year-old entering the league at one of the toughest positions to transition to from the college level and proceeding to put together the greatest rookie TE season we’ve ever seen? And he did all this only scoring one touchdown on the season? 
 

That should tell you all you need to know about how good Pitts is, and how scary good he’s going to be. 
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Mike Ditka begs to differ, as he played when the season was only 14 games, but still managed 50 more yards, and 11 more TD's.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Don’t disagree. Had he scored 6-8 TD instead of 1, it would have been substantially better. But it is what it is.

i just don’t think it’s “i told you so” worthy, and I’m not big on “I told ya so’s” regardless. People who were high on Pitts are still probably high on Pitts, and based on the things said in here, no season would Have been good enough for Trip to not come out crowing. ;)  
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You aren't big on "i told you so" because you are so consistently wrong. 😄.  

I agree though victory laps are wrong in real life, but I think it helps when we point out past points that we made or complete inaccuracies that people make.

 
TheWinz said:
Mike Ditka begs to differ, as he played when the season was only 14 games, but still managed 50 more yards, and 11 more TD's.
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Okay, let me rephrase. 
 

The best TE season since any of us were born. Ditka did that in 1961 for crying out loud. 

 
JoeJoe88 said:
Okay, let me rephrase. 
 

The best TE season since any of us were born. Ditka did that in 1961 for crying out loud. 
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Sorry for citing some obscure guy named Mike Ditka, who played when helmets weren't even a thing.

Don't know how old you are, but Keith Jackson had 81 catches for 869 yards and 6 TD's in 1988.  That equates to 203.9 points in a PPR league, and he did that before the league added a 17th game.  Kyle Pitts had 68 catches for 1026 yards and 1 TD.  That is 176.6 points in a PPR league. 

 
TheWinz said:
but Keith Jackson had 81 catches for 869 yards and 6 TD's in 1988
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Cool. He was also 3 years older than Pitts when he entered the league, played on a much better team than Pitts(10-6 that year) and had a Pro Bowl QB in Randall Cunningham throwing him the ball. 

 
I can see (and agree with) people being high on him in dynasty, but he is still going way too high in redraft.  He's on a bad team with a bad QB, and will most likely draw top/double coverage each week.  It's going to be very ugly for Atlanta this year, their entire team is on my do not draft list. 

For dynasty, his ceiling is very high, but at the same time, is also going to remain deflated as long as he is in Atlanta, it could still be a few years before he is actually in a good situation, if he ever even manages to be in one.   I know they won't, but Atlanta should consider trading him and going full rebuild.  Pitts is the type of player that would be much more valuable to a contending team (a team like the Packers should give multiple firsts/high end draft picks for him -- although I doubt their terrible GM would either).

TLDR; I hope Pitts doesn't end up wasting too much of his career on terrible Falcons teams and just ends up rotting away. 

 
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TheWinz said:
Sorry for citing some obscure guy named Mike Ditka, who played when helmets weren't even a thing.

Don't know how old you are, but Keith Jackson had 81 catches for 869 yards and 6 TD's in 1988.  That equates to 203.9 points in a PPR league, and he did that before the league added a 17th game.  Kyle Pitts had 68 catches for 1026 yards and 1 TD.  That is 176.6 points in a PPR league. 
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Also, Pitts yardage is far more impressive to me than Jackson’s tds. Tds are fluky. Pitts scored 12 tds his last season in college. I think we’ll look back at his rookie season total and it’ll be huge outlier. Remember those impressive td seasons from Julio when he was playing with Matt Ryan? Yeah, me neither. 

 
JoeJoe88 said:
Cool. He was also 3 years older than Pitts when he entered the league, played on a much better team than Pitts(10-6 that year) and had a Pro Bowl QB in Randall Cunningham throwing him the ball. 
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What does any of this matter when you said "the greatest rookie TE season we’ve ever seen"?
- A rookie is a rookie; whether they are 21 or 24 does not matter when it comes to stats
- Team record is unimportant.  Arguably the best TE of all time, Tony Gonzalez, finished as the top TE in fantasy 4 times.  His team finished with a losing record in 3 of the 4 years, with his last TE1 finish as part of the 2-14 Chiefs.
- Randall Cunningham made 3 Pro Bowls; Matt Ryan has made 4

FTR, I think Pitts had a great rookie season.  TD's were the only thing lacking for fantasy.

 
JoeJoe88 said:
Also, Pitts yardage is far more impressive to me than Jackson’s tds. Tds are fluky. Pitts scored 12 tds his last season in college. I think we’ll look back at his rookie season total and it’ll be huge outlier. Remember those impressive td seasons from Julio when he was playing with Matt Ryan? Yeah, me neither. 
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Pitts had 1026 yards in 17 games = 60 yards per game
Jackson had 869 yards in 16 games = 54 yards per game

As for TD's, call them fluky if you want, but they seem to happen an awful lot in the NFL.  As a matter of fact, there were 840 such cases of passing TD's last year.  That's more than 3 each game, and we are only talking about passing TD's.  I find it funny that you are defending Pitts' lone rookie TD by calling them fluky, and then saying he scored 12 in his final college season.

Lastly, Matt Ryan is 9th all time in passing TD's.  What's weird is Pitts only accounting for 5% of Ryan's passing TD's when he accounted for 20% of the targets.  I totally agree that 1 TD will be an outlier in his career.

Again, I think Pitts will have a great career, and he had a great rookie season.  It just wasn't the best ever, as you said.

 
TripItUp said:
whoops, that's right...got the one TD.  

You could have done so much better with that pick last year...I suspect not many Kyle Pitts teams did well last year.  Drafting Rookie TEs in the high rounds is a great way to lose at fantasy football.
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I don't recall the actual TE ADP's prior to the season, so I will use the subscriber contest as an aid.  In the contest, he was the 5th most expensive.  How did he finish in the contest?  5th

 
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