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TE Robert Tonyan, CHI (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I will eat my hat if Robert Tonyan leads them in receptions. Strike that....I'll cut up every ballcap I have, boil them in broth, and eat it.
Two games in four years with 7 targets, career high for a season is 59 targets. I know it was just a throwaway comment from a player but that reporter is trash for putting it out like it's news.
But hey, probably gonna catch TDs - being in that Rodgers circle of trust is always a good thing.
massraider
Footballguy
Spectacular bargain bin find.
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
I agree. I think he's going to have a career year. He always jumped off the screen to me. With all those targets up for grab, Tonyan gonna make a nice living for himself this year. While everyone is chasing for the next Green Bay WR, Tonyan is flying quietly under the radar going so far as being UNDRAFTED in some leagues.
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Am I reading this correctly? Tonyan caught 11 TOUCHDOWNS in 2020? That's more than enough upside for me right there if you're looking for a streaming option.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Presumably most people realize TDs are the least sticky receiving stat and variable year over year.
Tonyan runs around 21 routes per game (that's generally outside TE1 territory) and his target % last year was 17.4. That's a good 5-8% below any startable TE, exception being Dawson Knox - another TD dependent TE. Not a good case to be made from his utilization.
In his two seasons as a starter his snap counts are around 38-40 per game (61% and 60%.) That's because he's just about the worst blocking TE in the NFL. His run blocking grade was 50.4 and his pass blocking was 15.4. Just about every starteable FF TE1 has a snap count over 75% (Mark Andrews is usually low 60s, I believe he's the lone exception.)
Less snaps generally translates to fewer snaps. Fewer snaps generally mens fewer targets. Fewer Targets....you get the idea.
You could try him and see if lightning strikes twice, but he TDs are really the only path. It's an edge case. Could happen, but in the range of outcomes it's not likely.
Tonyan runs around 21 routes per game (that's generally outside TE1 territory) and his target % last year was 17.4. That's a good 5-8% below any startable TE, exception being Dawson Knox - another TD dependent TE. Not a good case to be made from his utilization.
In his two seasons as a starter his snap counts are around 38-40 per game (61% and 60%.) That's because he's just about the worst blocking TE in the NFL. His run blocking grade was 50.4 and his pass blocking was 15.4. Just about every starteable FF TE1 has a snap count over 75% (Mark Andrews is usually low 60s, I believe he's the lone exception.)
Less snaps generally translates to fewer snaps. Fewer snaps generally mens fewer targets. Fewer Targets....you get the idea.
You could try him and see if lightning strikes twice, but he TDs are really the only path. It's an edge case. Could happen, but in the range of outcomes it's not likely.
sho nuff
Footballguy
I agree with tempering expectations.
However, last year is a very hard one to judge Tonyan on. His route percentage down seemed to stem from their lack of trust in the Oline (now, that may be a factor early as long as Bakhtiari and Jenkins are returning from their injuries). He was kept in more to block last year than before.
Fast forward to now...Adams and all those targets are gone. Even with Bakhtiairi and Jenkins still up in the air, IMO, they have a bit more confidence in the line than last year as the guys replacing them played a bit last year vs how they are going in now. I don't think he will be kept in to block as much and I think those guys will return sooner rather than later (Jenkins possibly even already Sunday).
Rodgers has talked a lot about trust and earning that with the young players. Tonyan has that trust from him...I could see him put up career numbers as far as receptions and yards this year, but yeah, hard to predict the TD numbers from 2020. Both with TDs being that unpredictable and the offense was crazy efficient in the redzone that year.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
You make some good points. I like him as a football player.
His production doesn't meet the criteria of every Top 5 TE from the last 20 years (without exception): you have get to 90 targets or score 10+ TDs. There have been zero exceptions to those thresholds. Not both, but either one, it's a possible Top 5. Breakdown:
Top 5 Tight Ends, 2003-2021 (19 consecutive years, 95 top 5 TE)
- Under 90 Targets, Under 10 TDs - zero Top 5 TEs
- Over 90 Targets, Under 10 TDs - 72 top 5 TEs
(it's important to realize 90 targets makes it possible, but lots of 90 target TEs didn't get there)
- Under 90 Targets, Over 10 TDs - 5 top 5 TEs
(a rare but not impossible route to Top 5, and also the hardest to predict)
- Over 90 Targets, Over 10 TDs - 18 top
WRT the bolded, I would challenge anyone who says his routes/utilization changed from the prior year.
- Targets - 3.7 /g in 2020, 3.6 /g in 2021
- Target Share - 11.8% (14.5% RZ) 2020, 11.6% (10.9%)
- Target Rate - 18.0% 2020, 17.9 2021
- Snap Share - 61.2%, 60.7%
- Slot Snaps - 136 (22.4%), 77 (25.9%)
- Routes Run - 328 (20.4 /g), 162 (20.3 /g)
- Route Participation - 62.4% 2020, 61.1% 2021
- Air Yards - 443 (27.7), 265 (33.1)
- Air Yards Share - 13.3%, 11.5%
- ADOT - 7.5, 9.1
- Deep Targets - 8 (0.5), 7 (0.9)
- Target Quality Rating - 6.21 (#3), 4.98 (n/r)
- Catchable Target Rate - 89.8% (53 of 59) #2, 72.4% (21 of 29), n/r
- Fantasy PPG - 11.8 /g TE5 2020, 6.3 /g TE32 2021
2020 was the year Robert Tonyan caught 3 TDs in a Week 4 vs ATL on MNF. How did a guy that had 4 TDs in his first 32 NFL games do something that insane? Crazy Covid year with no fans, BOTH Falcons starting Safeties were out of the game (along with a starting CB), and Davante Adams and Alan Lazard both missed the game due to injury. May not be repeatable.
Could he be a totally different TE than he showed in his first 4 years? If you think so, draft him (or pick him off waivers.) Could Tonyan's role and market share change this year? Yes.
Could it trend up by 50% (targets)? Probably not. Will score 10 TDs? I have no idea, but that is the bet you are making.
You want to draft him to be TE10-12, he's probably a winner. Then we're just talking resource allocation, e.g, how much draft capital you are willing to part with to have a player who will outperform half or more of your FF league.
I'm not targeting guys who are virtually guaranteed to be the bottom quartile of my FF league's starters.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Yeah, he’s a good football player. Can’t block but I like his ability to get open and he’s in the AR circle of trust - which is huge.
***************
I have been preaching that the 90 targets/10 TDs mantra for over a year. It’s not a Tonyan thing. I’m just trying to help people develop a methodology for picking a TE who will give you an advantage.
If you like outscoring your league mates, find a TE who will pass one of those metrics. One of those two things is predictable.
You don’t care if you compete at the TE position, start someone who won’t accomplish either of those things.
(there are other metrics wrt to alignment & utilization but that’s a baseline prerequisite.)
***************
It’s expensive drafting those 90 target guys so the trick is finding players who are trending toward the minimum utilization, don’t stay in to block more than 12% of the time, run 25-30+ routes per game, line up in the slot or outside often (30-60%), and the next BIGGEST one, will be a Top 2 target on his own team.
What drives me batty is folks saying “I drafted this guy who has upside.”
You look and he’s in his 4th/6th year and will be 3rd/4th in his team in targets, stays in to block 18% of the time, runs 22 routes a game and gets targets once every six routes, and all those things were true about him for several seasons.
5-6 red flags but that’s the guy. Hope he get 8-10 TDs, so GL with that.
What TE’s outside of the top 3ish fit this mold? I Irv and Everett and Albert O and am trying to not carry 3 different dudes at this position.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Bobby i agree with everything you're saying except for two things. One, his snap percentage and routes run are not predictable.
Second, I usually care where a tight end ranks in terms of targets on his team. But that's because there's usually a wr who gets 100 plus targeta. I don't know if we'll have that. We know that Rodgers is good and Jones and Dillon can catch. We've seen some flashes from lazard. There's some rookie talent and Watkins. None of them is a lock for 100 targets. Rodgers will throw enough passes that, in theory, 4 guys could get 90 targets.
Extrapolating from his full season metrics as a first time starter in 2020 and an injury season in 21 is helpful but not the end-all be-all. They had a target hog in Adams. If you want to extrapolate from games tonyan started and adams didn't play, he caught 11 passes and 4 touchdowns. In two games. Weeks 3 and 4 of 2020.
I am not looking at Tonyan as a clear top 5 guy but I'm happy to start him in daily and I've gotten him cheap in some leagues because there's a big pie and very few players have staked a claim to their piece. Volatility is your friend in those situations.
I think you're right overall that he might not be a different player this year, but Dalton Schultz wasn't a different player last year... he just moved up the target list by default.
Second, I usually care where a tight end ranks in terms of targets on his team. But that's because there's usually a wr who gets 100 plus targeta. I don't know if we'll have that. We know that Rodgers is good and Jones and Dillon can catch. We've seen some flashes from lazard. There's some rookie talent and Watkins. None of them is a lock for 100 targets. Rodgers will throw enough passes that, in theory, 4 guys could get 90 targets.
Extrapolating from his full season metrics as a first time starter in 2020 and an injury season in 21 is helpful but not the end-all be-all. They had a target hog in Adams. If you want to extrapolate from games tonyan started and adams didn't play, he caught 11 passes and 4 touchdowns. In two games. Weeks 3 and 4 of 2020.
I am not looking at Tonyan as a clear top 5 guy but I'm happy to start him in daily and I've gotten him cheap in some leagues because there's a big pie and very few players have staked a claim to their piece. Volatility is your friend in those situations.
I think you're right overall that he might not be a different player this year, but Dalton Schultz wasn't a different player last year... he just moved up the target list by default.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Who is your Big 3? Kelce, Andrews, Pitts?
- Waller (if you think Renfrow will be third in targets)
- Kittle
- Schultz
- Hockenson
- Ertz (absolutely no YAC)
/list
ETA
Kmet
I drafted him
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Davante Adams first two seasons
60 targets 38/446/3
94 targets 50/493/1
What changed? Obviously Adams developed into an exceptional player. But also, Jordy was on the team when Adams was a rookie, and Cobb and James Jones led the way in Adams' sophomore season. Year 3
121 targets 75/997/12
That's not a fair comparison though because davante was an incredible athlete who broke out in year 3. Let's look at another guy
54/33/366/2
31/22/320/2
64/45/582/2
That's Jordy Nelson when Donald Driver and Greg Jennings were the target hogs his first 3 years. Year 4:
96/68/1263/15
I'm not going to write off Tonyan's 59/51/586/11 as a fluke. I'm not going to expect a repeat. I'm looking for high quality dart throws and i know that Rodgers can turn a player's numbers around in a heartbeat if he looks their way. That could be one of the rookies, it could be Lazard, it could be Watkins, but i would most expect it to end up being spread out around the team. And in that scenario, Tonyan could be one of the recipients of the volume we're looking for
60 targets 38/446/3
94 targets 50/493/1
What changed? Obviously Adams developed into an exceptional player. But also, Jordy was on the team when Adams was a rookie, and Cobb and James Jones led the way in Adams' sophomore season. Year 3
121 targets 75/997/12
That's not a fair comparison though because davante was an incredible athlete who broke out in year 3. Let's look at another guy
54/33/366/2
31/22/320/2
64/45/582/2
That's Jordy Nelson when Donald Driver and Greg Jennings were the target hogs his first 3 years. Year 4:
96/68/1263/15
I'm not going to write off Tonyan's 59/51/586/11 as a fluke. I'm not going to expect a repeat. I'm looking for high quality dart throws and i know that Rodgers can turn a player's numbers around in a heartbeat if he looks their way. That could be one of the rookies, it could be Lazard, it could be Watkins, but i would most expect it to end up being spread out around the team. And in that scenario, Tonyan could be one of the recipients of the volume we're looking for
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I always find it funny when people put down the idea that a “sleeper” will produce higher than expected. This really has nothing to do with Tonyan but every year the rankings get jumbled up. Identifying guys who “could” greatly out produce their ADP is how you win in this hobby. There are a lot of positives for Tonyan, but there also a lot of negatives (common amongst the “sleeper” group). The positives are enough to potentially have some upward surprise and have us looking back and wondering why we didn’t take a shot on him. Lack of established receiving targets, HOF QB, previous production with AR, 2020 9/16 games with a TD, a three TD game to his belt…). Seems like a great late target.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
As I wrote that I had in mind guys who will be Top 2 on their team, more than 90 targets.
Few others you could take a stab it & hope it’s their year to hit 8-11 TDs - Tonyan, Henry, Dawson, your guy who I didn’t mention.
Few others you could take a stab it & hope it’s their year to hit 8-11 TDs - Tonyan, Henry, Dawson, your guy who I didn’t mention.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
This discussion applies to Tight Ends
That includes wide receivers like Pitts (singular case) who downs more time in the slot or outside than next to a tackle.
WR targets are another animal and N/A from my perspective, but by all means…
Also, I’m not trying to identify Sleepers. I’m merely laying out data for TEs likely to finish the season in the Top 5 for their position.
For my purposes, Everett, Fant, Higbee, your guy I haven’t mentioned are not finishing Top 5 - unless they morph into something they haven’t been start scoring TDs to by the boatload.
ETA
David Njoku is a superb athlete, but his year 6 breakout will see him become a player he’s never been before. I AN NOT PREDICTING IT. I’m just pointing out that’s the edge case you are projecting when you roster him.
Guess what, though? It happens - Deianie Walker, Logan Thomas.
Walker was a clear candidate to become a new kind of player - we talked about it often here. When he got traded from SF to TEN, whoa. Nobody saw Thomas coming. Few realized ahead of time what Waller could be.
So heck yeah, if you’re roster us big enough, take a flyer on a true upside guy. Doesn’t work out, you’ll probably know by the end of September, move on to the next candidate.
Those breakouts are hard to predict but that’s championship material right there. Waller a couple years ago, Logan Thomas’ breakout, Jordan Reed when healthy, et al.
That includes wide receivers like Pitts (singular case) who downs more time in the slot or outside than next to a tackle.
WR targets are another animal and N/A from my perspective, but by all means…
Also, I’m not trying to identify Sleepers. I’m merely laying out data for TEs likely to finish the season in the Top 5 for their position.
For my purposes, Everett, Fant, Higbee, your guy I haven’t mentioned are not finishing Top 5 - unless they morph into something they haven’t been start scoring TDs to by the boatload.
ETA
David Njoku is a superb athlete, but his year 6 breakout will see him become a player he’s never been before. I AN NOT PREDICTING IT. I’m just pointing out that’s the edge case you are projecting when you roster him.
Guess what, though? It happens - Deianie Walker, Logan Thomas.
Walker was a clear candidate to become a new kind of player - we talked about it often here. When he got traded from SF to TEN, whoa. Nobody saw Thomas coming. Few realized ahead of time what Waller could be.
So heck yeah, if you’re roster us big enough, take a flyer on a true upside guy. Doesn’t work out, you’ll probably know by the end of September, move on to the next candidate.
Those breakouts are hard to predict but that’s championship material right there. Waller a couple years ago, Logan Thomas’ breakout, Jordan Reed when healthy, et al.
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The Frankman
Footballguy
The Frankman
Footballguy
