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TE Travis Kelce, KC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bucky86
- Start date
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I have to choose between him & Julius next year as a keeper. 
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
My decision is Kelce or Olsen in a contract league. Right now I probably only have room to give a 1 year deal but I'm torn.I have to choose between him & Julius next year as a keeper.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I like Kelce in that matchup.My decision is Kelce or Olsen in a contract league. Right now I probably only have room to give a 1 year deal but I'm torn.I have to choose between him & Julius next year as a keeper.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I said close to Graham so I would need something else. Gronk obviously no. Everyone else yes. Although if I owned Julius I might try to make him give me extra, but if push came to shove I would do it straight up
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Warhogs
Footballguy
Wow. I'm a bit taken back on the views of Kelce. It's not that I don't like him but I don't see putting him right there with Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas. He was the #9 TE in my league and his scoring wasn't very consistent. I see him as a decent tier 2 TE but I don't see him near the top tier.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I think it shows a couple things. First, the talent at tight end. Second how impressive he was for his 1st year on the field.
I think most people here are looking at the long term... and I'd have to put Kelce there. Maybe a guy like Olsen/Bennett outproduces him next year, but in three years I think Kelce is definitely in that top tier.
Of course, if he gets a QB with any kind of arm it would help. Alex Smith is horrible. I'd be interested to see Kelce's reception chart, my guess is 50% of what he caught was within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage, and most of that right in the middle.
packersfan
Footballguy
Projecting out a sample of games for a full season is definitely flawed but if you take Kelce's final month this season and project out to 16 games they come to:
92-1,136-4
The TDs are low but the receptions and yardage are elite at the TE position. Again, I'm not saying that's what people should project him for in 2015 but that is the type of talent and potential he has. For me, it all comes down to whether Reid is going to utilize him properly or not. In the last month he finally did more of it.
92-1,136-4
The TDs are low but the receptions and yardage are elite at the TE position. Again, I'm not saying that's what people should project him for in 2015 but that is the type of talent and potential he has. For me, it all comes down to whether Reid is going to utilize him properly or not. In the last month he finally did more of it.
Warhogs
Footballguy
IMO that is a dangerous projection. Too small of a sample size to select and I don't see what has changed that would make someone want to choose the last 4 games to jump off of. I do like Kelce. I think he benefits from Alex Smith who throws the short pass. The WR group could look a lot different next year and whether that helps or hurts, who knows. If you use his last 8 games his projections would be 70-886-2. Still nice numbers and probably closer to what someone could hope for in my mind.
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
That would be only 3 more catches for 24 more yards and 3 less TD's than this year. I'd have to think he would improve on this year's numbers personally.
packersfan
Footballguy
It's definitely flawed as I said and I would not use it as a projection for 2015. I selected those four games because on the surface it appeared the light bulb finally went on for Reid in terms of integrating Kelce into the offense more intelligently and consistently. But mainly I did it to display the type of potential we're talking about here. Kelce may never get there but this is the type of talent he possesses. Other than Gronk, Graham and Thomas, I'm not sure there's another TE in the league with this type of potential. Olsen is by far safer and more consistent right now but I don't think even he has Kelce's type of upside.
Warhogs
Footballguy
I guess I'm not disagreeing. He looks pretty good in that next tier but I would put him in tier 2 as I said when I first posted as I think he is a ways from tier 1. I can't put him close to Jimmy Graham as others have been talking. To me, Gronk and Graham are the top tier. I put Thomas in his own spot below those two. Kelce belongs in that next group. I'm just saying those who were ranking him very close to Graham are setting the bar pretty high.
Louche
Footballguy
12 receptions behind the LOS, 39 between 0-9, 13 between 10-19, and 3 receptions 20+. His average depth of target was 6.3 which is in the same range as Bennett and Julius. The only fantasy relevant TEs with a shorter aDOT were Gresham and Reed.-CE- said:
Most fantasy studs were between 8.5 and 10. The ones that have higher aDOT than that were mostly situational guys like Davis, Fleener and Ertz. Over the last few years the 8.5 to 10 range seems to be a sweet spot.
But Kelce has fantastic YAC ability so the primary thing we're looking for is volume, not direction or depth of targets. That being said Smith went 3 for 3 when he targeted Kelce at 20+ yards so it would be nice to see more of it.
packersfan
Footballguy
I can't put him in the Gronk/Graham tier either. He clearly hasn't earned that. However, if you were to ask me what TE has the best chance to join that group next season I'd put Julius Thomas first and Kelce second. Thomas' biggest advantage is TD potential. If the Chiefs were to start using Kelce more in the Red Zone (which they clearly should) it's not a stretch to say Kelce's upside is higher than Thomas'.Warhogs said:
White Lightning
Footballguy
I owned Kelce in 2 of my 3 leagues, so I'm confident that most of my competition did not follow his progression last year. Although I'm not sold that Reid will make the logical move of increasing Kelce's role next year, Kelce's last 4-5 games DO give me confidence that his floor will be pretty high. Assuming there are good reports during training camp/preseason, I will be targeting Kelce as a value pick at TE.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I have Gronk in his own tier, then Graham in his own tier, then Julius and Kelce in the next tier. If Kelce is the main weapon in the passing game I think he jumps up to Graham's tier. That is a if though.
packersfan
Footballguy
Red Zone usage remains key for me. He rather shockingly only got 3 targets the whole season inside the 10. Just three. True to form, he caught two of them and both of his receptions went for touchdowns. As with nearly all of his statistical metrics they screamed for more usage then he was given.
His third-down usage also demonstrates how wildly underutilized he was. He caught 21 of 26 targets on third down, converting 15 into first downs. Kelce was very clutch and productive when needed the most.
His third-down usage also demonstrates how wildly underutilized he was. He caught 21 of 26 targets on third down, converting 15 into first downs. Kelce was very clutch and productive when needed the most.
Louche
Footballguy
Yeah, without checking it up I guess there was a lot of trick plays down there with all these backup RBs, fullbacks and Fasano getting work... When they draft a WR in one of the first couple rounds this year we should hopefully see a more traditional red zone offense and not just trick plays.
But the by far most impressive metric, and I'm sure this has been mentioned earlier in this thread, was his yards per target where he ranked number 1 in the NFL at 9.9 yds. Gronk had 8.6 yds. So even with Smith at QB, with very few other receivers for defenders to key in on, with a short aDOT, and playing his first NFL season on the field he was still amazingly effective. It's very impressive.
Nugget
Footballguy
My buddy Skim Milk out duels 87 at the rodeo.
http://deadspin.com/travis-kelce-loses-rodeo-dance-contest-to-fan-nicknamed-1687768493
http://deadspin.com/travis-kelce-loses-rodeo-dance-contest-to-fan-nicknamed-1687768493
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Seems to have a pretty high floor, It's not like they have a bunch of WRs stealing his TD targets.
Denver724
Footballguy
Good call. I wouldn't trade him for less than a mid-1st in a regular scoring league. His value is a lot higher in a TE premium. I'm a believer!
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
But does he, really? I mean, let's be honest. Here's a list of TEs who have compiled 150 points or more in PPR scoring (which only corresponds to a 50/640/6 season - basically a replacement-level starting TE in most scoring systems) in 16 years of Andy Reid teams:
- Brent Celek, 2009 (221)
- Brent Celek, 2011 (173)
- Chad Lewis, 2000 (160)
It's one of the great mysteries of the 21st-century NFL that Reid is so addicted to passing, has had some freakish athletes at WR and TE, and yet has never seemed to produce a consistent fantasy stud. I'd still be a buyer on Kelce in dynasty for the right price ... but in the (redraft) 2015 WSLs he's going as high as TE4, and IMO those who go all in on him at prices like that are just setting themselves up for disappointment.
msommer
Footballguy
In my PPR league Kelce ended TE7 with 191.2 points (0,2 points behind Fleener at TE6), 67/862/5 (87 targets). And that's with the world sceaming that Kelce was underutilized and Fasano was a chump.Mr. Irrelevant said:
So there seems to be a data point missing from your list.
I guess your point is that you do not trust Andy Reid to use him more than this year. OK.
Do you think he will be used less next year? Or do you agree with me that 2014 represents his floor?
We do not know what Kelce's ceiling is in Reid's offense and there is risk there. On the other hand TE4 in above league had 233,6 points (M. Bennett).
Granted not sure I'd buy Kelce at that price (TE4) but 42 points is not exactly reaching for the sky either with Fasano gone (25/226/4 on 37 targets)
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
You literally could not script a better setup than last year for a monster season out of Kelce: a healthy Charles pulling attention away from the passing game, a full season of Captain Checkdown under center, a solid offensive line, and a WR corps that couldn't catch a single touchdown pass the entire season.
And as a result of that perfect storm, Kelce finished with ... 67/862/5.
Look, I love the guy's talent. I owned him in multiple leagues in '14 and, yes, he delivered great value for his ADP, but it's not like he put owners on his back and carried them to a title. But to deliver that same value at a top-5 ADP, that's almost what he'll need to do next year. And if watching a decade and a half of the Eagles under Reid taught me anything, it's that he isn't going to blow up his whole offensive scheme just to leverage a mismatch at a receiver spot, no matter how much of a freak that receiver might be.
msommer
Footballguy
I'm not arguing for perpetual stardom. In the league referenced above TE3-13 was fairly tightly grouped between 237.8 points and 159,2 points.
Thats a 40 point or so difference in either direction or one fifteen yard reception per game more or less.
Personally I think it is more likely that Kelce scores 40 points more next year than 40 points less - but that's why they play the games.
I don't participate many leagues (and not very interested in redraft - prefer auction) but recognize that there is risk by taking Kelce that high in that type of league. But you could say the same about practically anyone of TEs 4-13 (TE3 was Greg Olsen and to me he seems more likley to repeat than to drop down)
Thats a 40 point or so difference in either direction or one fifteen yard reception per game more or less.
Personally I think it is more likely that Kelce scores 40 points more next year than 40 points less - but that's why they play the games.
I don't participate many leagues (and not very interested in redraft - prefer auction) but recognize that there is risk by taking Kelce that high in that type of league. But you could say the same about practically anyone of TEs 4-13 (TE3 was Greg Olsen and to me he seems more likley to repeat than to drop down)
Shutout
Footballguy
This might be the best post I've read in a year. Exactly right and hits al the TRUE points that need to be recognized:
-ideal situation in 2014 netted really good results but could have easily have been so much more.
-Price is now higher than ever but history shows Reid won't adjust on the fly to leverage it.
-If Reid can't find a way to maximize Jamaal Charles, how can he possibly maximize a TE. If Jimmy Graham were on this team, the result would be disappointing in relation to cost to acquire vs. payout.
The thing that will get missed but needs to be recognized in this is people who aren't stoking this hype will be criticized that we don't think he is good. That is not the case. He is and can be. But in relation to the cost and the expectation, the barrier which is Andy Reid and the way he operates almost guarantees you have to pay a top 5-6 price and almost certainly won't get what you expect.
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
I'm in a contract league and I have 2 years to give to the position next year and have Kelce and Olsen. I'll try to trade one of them before our draft but if not I don't know what to do.
cstu
Footballguy
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Really pumped to own him in dynasty. Good news indeed.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
come eat your crow, reid hatersFaust said:
Personally, I'm pretty neutral on Reid, but wth are you talking about? I don't have snap counts, but as far as utilization goes, this news blurb appears to be revisionist history. Kelce saw 87 targets on the season, 5.4 per game. Through the first four weeks of the season Kelce average 6 targets per game. So...
Also, he had 42 targets through the first 8 games. 45 in the last 8. I would go so far as to assume this is not statistically significant.
I like the cherry picked stat about the last 5 weeks of the season which were boosted by an unsustainable 79% catch rate and a rushing TD.
I like Kelce a lot, but what are people projecting for next year? I suspect he'll see between 90 and 110 targets, ranking him somewhere between 5th-12th among TEs. His catch rate will probably drop down closer to 70% (Vernon Davis was around 60% with Smith), giving him only a modest boost on last year's numbers. He and Fasano combined for 123 targets, so it's not like the sky is the limit here in KC. Bowe only got 95 targets. I'm sure they'll utilize Maclin more than that.
Why would you expect the catch rate of Davis, the stretch the field target for the 9rs, to match or be comparable to the catch rate of Kelce, who is used in a much different capacity in the Chiefs offense? Expecting Maclin and Davis to have comparable catch rates is comprehensible I suppose, but you make a major leap when you try to determine catch rates from the position played rather than the role played in an offense.
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
the hype on him is going to make him out of reach on draft day. so many people talk about wrs who die under reid. remember the hype celek got is all im going to mention he had one legit year in 2009.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
Could you also maybe mention how in the world Celek even compares to the player Kelce is/can/will be?
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