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Thanksgiving Day Games Fantasy Boost? (1 Viewer)

A

Art_VanDalay

Footballguy
Hey Sharks! I was listening to Sirius FF yesterday morning and heard one of their commentators come on and talk about a study that he has done for the past several years involving fantasy football players on Thanksgiving Day games. He had mentioned something to the effect of about a 20% boost in fantasy points scored in Thanksgiving games than the average NFL weeks. I have to admit, I wasn't able to keep listening and here the whole discussion so I was wondering if anyone has done any statistical analysis on this topic and would share it with the group? I am stuck trying to make a decision in must win game between Burelson vs. Hilton at WR and I am leaning towards Burelson because of this info. Looking forward to the discussion!

 
My knee jerk reaction is I believe it. Maybe it has to do with the fact that the Lions have been so crappy over the years or something but it does seem like every Turkey day, there is a DOnald Driver for 150/2 performance from guys that have been pedestrian up to that one point or that the good players seem to play a bit better.

 
It would go against the common hypothesis around here that Thursday games tend to hurt offensive numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised if what the commentator said was correct. I also think Shutout might be dead on with the fact that the Lions have been terrible most years.

I expect a big game out of the DET, NYG, and DAL offenses, but am not feeling a big game for a Flynn-led GB team who will have a harm time running against the DET line and will likely get behind early.

 
tdhartis said:
It would go against the common hypothesis around here that Thursday games tend to hurt offensive numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised if what the commentator said was correct. I also think Shutout might be dead on with the fact that the Lions have been terrible most years.

I expect a big game out of the DET, NYG, and DAL offenses, but am not feeling a big game for a Flynn-led GB team who will have a harm time running against the DET line and will likely get behind early.
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NYG don't play on Thanksgiving - you would be disappointed waiting for them to play tomorrow

 
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BearsFan4Life said:
tdhartis said:
It would go against the common hypothesis around here that Thursday games tend to hurt offensive numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised if what the commentator said was correct. I also think Shutout might be dead on with the fact that the Lions have been terrible most years.

I expect a big game out of the DET, NYG, and DAL offenses, but am not feeling a big game for a Flynn-led GB team who will have a harm time running against the DET line and will likely get behind early.
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NYG don't play on Thanksgiving - you would be disappointed waiting for them to play tomorrow
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Haha thanks for pointing that out. I went back in time a week and thought NYG and DAL were playing on Thanksgiving day for some reason. Oakland, my fault.

 
I tend to agree...... It seems like Madden used to give out turkey leg awards to a dozen guys on Thanksgiving..... LOL. I remember one year I think Scott Mitchell, Barry Sanders, Herman Moore and Brett Perriman ALL got one........ LOL

Edit to add, just checked... That year it was Moore, Perriman and Morton that won it. The year I was thinking of was one year Culpepper, Robert Smith, Randy Moss and Cris Carter won it.

Seems like a bunch of shootouts over the years..........

 
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Tomorrow should be no different from past years. The Lions and Cowboys have never been known for their daunting defenses...

 
Time Kibitzer said:
So does anyone have any actual data or are we all just going to make cocksure opinions based on hearsay?
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If you want to crank up the good old Excel spreadsheet and compare the statistics of the Thanksgiving day games over a relevant period of time to all other games those respective years, then be my guest. I searched for an article related to the one OP mentioned and came up with nothing, so I'm going to just go ahead and assume the commentator wasn't BSing and take that for what it's worth.

 
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If the Thanksgiving boost is just a consequence of the teams involved, then the day of the game has nothing to do with who you should be starting.

On the other hand, there's possibly something to it:

From 2000-2012:

All Cowboys and Lions non-Thanksgiving home games average 44.1 points and 659 total yards.

Cowboys and Lions Thanksgiving games average 47.2 points and 678 total yards.

Obviously, everyone should be starting Matt McGloin tomorrow.

(Of course, this differential is still probably more about who they're playing than the day of the week).

 
Stafford, Bush, Calvin, Jordy, Lacy

Romo, Dez, Murray, Witten, Oak?

Big Ben, Antonio, Bell, Flacco, Smith, Rice

Who we saying goes over there weekly avg?

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Stafford, Bush, Calvin, Jordy, Lacy

Romo, Dez, Murray, Witten, Oak?

Big Ben, Antonio, Bell, Flacco, Smith, Rice

Who we saying goes over there weekly avg?
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Above: Stafford, Calvin, Jordy, Romo, Dez, R. Jennings, L. Bell, T. Smith

Roughly par: Bush, Murray, Witten, Big Ben, Antonio, Flacco

Below: Lacy, Rice (possible?)

:2cents:

 
Art_VanDalay said:
Hey Sharks! I was listening to Sirius FF yesterday morning and heard one of their commentators come on and talk about a study that he has done for the past several years involving fantasy football players on Thanksgiving Day games. He had mentioned something to the effect of about a 20% boost in fantasy points scored in Thanksgiving games than the average NFL weeks. I have to admit, I wasn't able to keep listening and here the whole discussion so I was wondering if anyone has done any statistical analysis on this topic and would share it with the group? I am stuck trying to make a decision in must win game between Burelson vs. Hilton at WR and I am leaning towards Burelson because of this info. Looking forward to the discussion!
Click to expand...
Sounds made up.

To your match-up, Hilton is nicked up (shoulder). He went out of (and came back into) last week's game and has the big "Q" next to his name for now. Didn't see the game, so I can't speak as to his effectiveness after he returned.

 
Winning IS Everything said:
I tend to agree...... It seems like Madden used to give out turkey leg awards to a dozen guys on Thanksgiving..... LOL. I remember one year I think Scott Mitchell, Barry Sanders, Herman Moore and Brett Perriman ALL got one........ LOL

Edit to add, just checked... That year it was Moore, Perriman and Morton that won it. The year I was thinking of was one year Culpepper, Robert Smith, Randy Moss and Cris Carter won it.

Seems like a bunch of shootouts over the years..........
Click to expand...
It wasn't a turkey leg....It was a Tur-Duck- Ken (tukey, duck and chicken)...

 
tdhartis said:
Time Kibitzer said:
So does anyone have any actual data or are we all just going to make cocksure opinions based on hearsay?
Click to expand...
If you want to crank up the good old Excel spreadsheet and compare the statistics of the Thanksgiving day games over a relevant period of time to all other games those respective years, then be my guest. I searched for an article related to the one OP mentioned and came up with nothing, so I'm going to just go ahead and assume the commentator wasn't BSing and take that for what it's worth.
Click to expand...
It's worth nothing without corroborating data, that's my point.

Or to put it another way, I read an article last week that stated something to the effect of a 40% decrease in fantasy points scored in Thanksgiving games relative to average NFL weeks, so I guess everyone should 'go ahead and assume the author of the article wasn't BSing' and bench their studs this Thanksgiving.

 
I have a number of Turkey Day starters right now; Murray, Bryant, Cowboys D....I also have Boykin and am on the fence, largely because I am not sure I want that many players active tomorrow.....other choice is Harvin on MNF.

 
BearsFan4Life said:
If you are banged up at WR ...I like Streater for Oak ...put together back to back solid weeks with McGloin
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And Moore has not practiced at all this week, seems like he will be out again tho week. When called upon Streater has responded well. I think Rod has a future in the league, perhaps on another team with an expanded role.

 
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From what I've read on the phenomenon of terrible Thursday games (generally for QBs and WRs, not for RBs), the effect does not apply to certain situations: Week 1 (since they are fully rested), any time the team is coming off a bye (same reason), and Thanksgiving. For whatever reason, players do not suffer on Thanksgiving as they would otherwise on a Thursday game. No one has a definitive answer why.

 
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