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The #2 WR becomes the #1 WR phenomenon (1 Viewer)

Not speaking of Evans specifically but just generally WR#2 becoming WR#1 it seems to me that there is a pretty high failaur rate in living up to the promotion.  Has anyone ever done a study on this?  I think of guys like Peerless Price as mentioned before.  I remember when I can't even think of his name but the Cowboys WR that was #2 to Irvin who was signed by another team to be their #1 guy and failed.  It just seems to happen a lot.  Maybe the switching teams to be #1 on a new team is more accurate.  Does anyone have any data supporting success/failure for this?  I do not.

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This is a very interesting question I did some quick research on and will do some more on tomorrow.But off the top of my head:

Since 1980, the leading receiver on a team in terms of yardage has left his team the following season 92 times.

Of those 92 times a #1 WR has left his team, here's a look at who has taken over as the #1 WR the following season.

31 times it was a player not on the team the prior year (or possibly on the team with zero catches, but I bet this is rare).

24 times the #2 WR from the prior year took over as the #1.

20 times the #3 WR from the prior year took over as the #1.

10 times the #4 WR from the prior year took over as the #1.

3 times the #5 WR from the prior year took over as the # 1.

4 times the #6 WR from the prior year took over as the #1 (a couple of these could be due to injury).

It may be interesting to look at all of the 24 players who went from the #2 to #1 WR to see if there are any common threads. It might also be interesting to look at all the #2 WR's who did not make it to #1 after the #1 left.

:thumbup:

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Thanks Joe T. It might be interesting to see if any conclusions can be drawn. There has been some big success and some big failures.
 
On a horrible offensive team, in his first two years he gets

Even with Lossman, he'll get 60-80 catches. A lock for 1,000 yards. And I don't see his TDs dropping. He averaged 8 as the #2, so he should get 8-10 again.

And if the QB play improved at all, Evans will get most of that production.

If you look at Moose when SS went down, Driver when Walker went down. (and no real #2 behind them) Someone will get the production. Bills QBs won't throw for 6 tds all year. Someone is gonna get the yards and TDs. (yes Favre/Delhomme are better QBs, which is why I don't rank Evans in the top 12)

And.... *drumroll*....

He's entering his 3rd year! For whoever believe in that theory.  :hophead:

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Please pass me whatever it is you are smoking.Lock for 1,000 yards on that offense is a stretch.

8 TD's as a lock ? What about him moving to the #1 WR and having tougher coverage and more double teams?

SS and Driver both have far better QB's than Evans does. The comparison doesn't even make sense.

Maybe no one gets Moulds yards because they can't pass. Moulds as the #1 WR on the team only finished as the #28 WR in the league last year.... I'd say you'd have to have an improvement in the overall Bills offense to have their new #1 WR move higher than 28 and I just don't see that.

:no:

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Stretch? Bills threw for 2,500 yards. Take away Moulds, they're going to throw for 1,700 yards? There's only been one team below 2,000 yards in the last 5 years.Last year Evans was the more dangerous WR. He's had better YPG and TDs then Moulds both his first two years. From what I saw last year, Evans commanded more double coverage then Moulds did. Teams would constantly roll the safety to Evans side on 3rd and longs. You add in his speed and deep play ability; I don't see his TDs going down. He's still getting better, and average 8 TDs his first two years.

It wasn't SS, it was Moose. And yes I stated they were better QBs. Guys setup up all the time. Moose/Driver were the only viable WR options. They got double teamed constantly. Evans will get far more targets, just by default.

Again, the Bills can't fall much further. Unless you're predicting historically bad offense. Lets say the Bills fall even further, 2,200 passing yards. Break down for me how Evans doesn't get 1,000 of that. They really just have no one else to speak of to catch the ball. When Moose/Driver were the only WRs, the #2s didn't do jack.

Project out the Bills offense. I don't see how Evans doesn't get 1,000 yards 8 TDs. That's not even adding Moulds TDs to Evans. That's just him maintaining his 1st and 2nd year averages. And I'm not adding Moulds yardage. I'm just adding in 20% increase in targets, which will give him 1,000 yards easily. (in this same offense, he averaged 800 yards.) Moulds has been on the decline for the last 6 years. To me Evans/Moulds were 1a and 1b. Very few WRs come into the league and average 800 yards 8 tds their first few years, then add in it was on a horribly bad offense.

And if 1,000 yards and 8 tds is so shocking, what's your projection?

 
Again, the Bills can't fall much further. Unless you're predicting historically bad offense. Lets say the Bills fall even further, 2,200 passing yards. Break down for me how Evans doesn't get 1,000 of that. They really just have no one else to speak of to catch the ball.

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This reminds me of the Tai Streets argument.You must be a Rudnicki alias.

 
Again, the Bills can't fall much further. Unless you're predicting historically bad offense. Lets say the Bills fall even further, 2,200 passing yards. Break down for me how Evans doesn't get 1,000 of that. They really just have no one else to speak of to catch the ball.

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This reminds me of the Tai Streets argument.You must be a Rudnicki alias.

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:lmao: 2,200 yards divided by 4 WRs, 2-3 TEs, and a few RBs will certainly mean less than 1,000 yards for the #1 WR.

i am cautiously optimistic about evans but too many here think it is some inherant lock he'll be a top 20 WR. big mistake.

 
Evans will get far more targets, just by default.

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This is dangerously inaccurate.
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Not really. Look at the lack of talent at the WR/TE positions. They've gone so far to say McGahee will now get more chances in the passing game. I'm not sure what part of Evans is throwing you. He's had two GREAT years. Evans has done as much or more then Roy Williams, but he's the golden boy it seems. Evans doesn't have to dramatically jump his production. He needs to maintain it, and pick up some of the slack (15-20%). I still haven't heard your projections for Evans.

 
Again, the Bills can't fall much further. Unless you're predicting historically bad offense. Lets say the Bills fall even further, 2,200 passing yards. Break down for me how Evans doesn't get 1,000 of that. They really just have no one else to speak of to catch the ball.

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This reminds me of the Tai Streets argument.You must be a Rudnicki alias.

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You're crushing the most posts in May contest. He averaged 800 and 8. That's going to drop with Moulds leaving? There's no one else who will step up. Bills are praying someone steps up to be a serviceable #2. Beyond Evans, the Bills WRs make Philly's WRs look like pro bowlers.

If you look at dynasty rankings for WRs at or under 25 years of age.

#1 Fitz

#13 Roy

#14 AJ

#18 Evans

#20 Edwards

He’s one of the best young WRs in the league. The guy is talented. He's had two great years in the league. And merely has to have modest improvement to reach 1,000 8 td range. This seems absurd to you. So I'm waiting for your projections.

 
If you're not excited about the possibilities with Lee Evans, then who on earth are you ever excited about the possibilities of?

His rookie season, he has what (in my mind) is the 4th best rookie WR season of the past 15 years (behind only Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, and Michael Clayton). He then follows it up in his sophomore season with an equally good season despite having dreck at the QB position.

His QB situation is improved from last season (even if it's just Losman getting a year of seasoning under his belt). His targets are guaranteed to improve from last season. Historically, I've never seen any evidence that suggested that catch% goes down when a WR transitions from WR2 to WR1 (although ypc certainly does). Best of all, he's already got a very good start towards what I think is the most underappreciated statistic for true "elite" WRs in the NFL- catch%. Look at the top 10 WRs from year to year, and you'll notice one thing- they're all either named Owens or have a 55+% catch percentage. The top 5 are all either named Owens or have a 60+% catch percentage. Evans has already demonstrated that he's capable of that, posting (iirc) a 64% catch rate as a rookie, and a 54% catch rate last year with Losman at the helm. Those are solid credentials, in my mind.

He's definitely an upside-based pick, and I'd have to see where he was going before I decided whether he'd be on my radar or not, but I definitely am high on Evans.

 
I'm not convinced that Evans was the #2 last year. I wouldn't have called him the #1 either. I saw it more as Moulds was the possession receiver and Evans was the deep threat. Moulds got a lot more receptions but Evans got almost as much yardage and more TDs. Moulds was historically the clearcut #1 in Buffalo but he's not the receiver he once was.

I don't necessarily see Evans' role as changing. He's unquestionable the number 1 now but only by default. His stats should improve as he continues to grow as an NFL receiver and Losman improves. I don't think J.P. is the long term answer but he has to improve on last year I think. A few yards will go to Evans that otherwise would of went to Moulds but not many. Price, Parrish, Reed, etc. will get most of them.

I project about 60/900/9 for Evans. That should be good for a top 20 WR.

 
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