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The art of draft trades (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Rounders
- Start date
GreedoShotFirst
Footballguy
SSOG
Moderator
Agreed. If I were a GM, I would trade my first rounder every single year for a second rounder this year, and a second rounder next year. If I had a top-10 pick, I'd trade it for a second this year, a second next year, and a first next year, and then I'd trade next year's first for more second rounders.The second round is where you want to be at. About 50% of of first rounders become impact players, compared to only about 35% of second rounders... but not only does two seconds have a higher chance of netting you an impact player, the two seconds will cost less COMBINED than the one first would have.
Just look at who all the consensus best WRs in the NFL are. Owens was a 3rd rounder, Johnson was a 2nd rounder, Steve Smith was a 3rd rounder, Boldin was a second rounder (and Bryant Johnson was a first!). In fact, the only stud WRs that I can think of right now that were first rounders are Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald. Maybe MAYBE Roy Williams. MAYBE. And for those three, I can name David Terrell, Freddie Mitchell, Bryant Johnson, Charles Rogers... lots of first round busts.
The nice thing about second rounders is if they bust, they don't screw your cap.
And I'm putting the money saved into scouting, coaching and player development.
T
trader jake
Guest
bushleinart
young
maybe not the best year to make this argument...lol
GregStarling
Footballguy
Here are a couple from my site that I've used with fairly good success. There is a lot of math behind it, but here are the results:12 Team League
10 Team League
Ridgelake
Footballguy
I read an article maybe a year ago where some guys analyzed the value/cost that were acquired from draft slots. Measuring the value was a challenge, but by using such measures as years started, pro bowls, etc., they found that the best value for the cost was at around pick #35 to #40. Early second rounders and late first rounders were the best return on investment.Early first rounders as a group were the best in terms of production. But their substantially increased cost did not justify their additional return. Mid and late round picks did not pan out frequently enough compared to the early second rounders.
One implication from this is that winning teams are pre-positioned to benefit most from the draft. They don't have to pay the high salaries of the early first rounders. Yet their own picks are in the zone of best return on investment.
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
You should think harder then.Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, Joey Galloway were first round picks. Andre Johnson looks OK, Michael Clayton and Lee Evans should be fine.
Top 5 picks that bust are very costly, but late mid-late first round picks have miminal cap hits- the bonus is generally only in the 2-3 million dollar range.
SSOG
Moderator
I read the same article. It's what I'm basing my arguements on.
That said, winning teams AREN'T naturally better positioned, since early picks are more valuable. The SB winner picks #32 overall, giving them one pick in the "sweet spot"... but the person with #1 overall could probably trade it for three, four, or possibly even FIVE picks in the "sweet spot", assuming he was willing to accept picks from future seasons.That's another thing I never got. Why is a first rounder this year worth so much more than a first rounder next year? I mean, I get that it's worth more because coaches are trying to win NOW (or risk getting fired), but from an ownership standpoint... why would a franchise trade its first rounder every year for a first next year and a third this year? That would basically just give them an extra 3rd rounder in every draft.
I said *stud* WRs. There are lots of first-round WRs who have been pretty decent, but the only guys on that list I'm willing to call "studs" are Harrison and Holt. Wayne's the #2 guy on his own team (Peerless Price looked pretty good as a #2, too, remember), Galloway just put up his first "studly" season with his THIRD TEAM, and Santana Moss was so "studly" for the team that drafted him that they traded him away. I really like Lee Evans so far, though.That said, for all of those guys, you have your Eric Mouldses, your Rod Smiths, your Jimmy Smiths, your Hines Wards, your Keenan McCardells, your Chris Chambers, your Steve Smiths, your Chad Johnsons, your Terrell Owens. I'd say that more than 50% of the WRs at every level (stud, very good, quality, reserve) came from outside of the first round (and frequently outside of the first day). Which, you think, might be true at every position... but it wouldn't be.
I read a stat this past offseason saying that, of the 64 CBs who were opening day starters this year, only 6 or so weren't drafted on the first day. Of the 32 LTs who were opening day starters, only a handful weren't drafted on the first day. Stats like that suggest to me that you're best off investing early picks at the premium positions (QB, LT, and CB were the three biggest), and filling out other positions (RB, WR, LB) with guys who are more likely to outperform their draft position.
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
If you want to include Steve Smith, you have to include Santana Moss. They have had ver similar careers. If you will give Roy Williams a maybe, you ought to give Andre Johnson a maybe. So, I doubled your list with five seconds thought. So basically, even by your assessment there were as many studs at wr in round one, than all the other rounds combined: Fitz, Moss, Harrison,and Holt. They were a lot more wr's taken outside of round 1 than in it.As to your point about being able to get quality wr's outside of round 1, I agree with. The bust factor is much higher outside of round 1 as well. We just rarely think of 2nd round wr's that don't produce as busts. The 53 man roster comes into play here as well. Few teams carry more than 6 wr's, so you cant just sat I will caryy two lower picks instead of one higher one. Qepth goes a long way in the injury filled NFL.What you said in your last post contradicts your first. You first said you trade out of the top 10 every time. However, to get a stud cb or LT, or QB you often have to be near the top of round 1(as you acknowledge in your later post). So when you are sitting at 9 need a CB and a good one is on the board, do you just trade out, because that is your policy? I don't think so. The best teams realize every draft is different. They grade each player and weigh that against the value they assign to a pick. They then move up or down based on the value of players available/they expect to be available.
SSOG
Moderator
I said first day picks, not early first round picks. I think it makes more sense to drop early first round picks to LOAD UP on first day picks. Denver's draft this year was a great example. Instead of one blue-chip CB taken in the first round, they loaded up on CBs (1 in the second, 2 in the third) and wound up with two of the top 4 rookie CBs in the NFL.
