In order drafted. One scenario each way, just to get people thinking.
1.01 - BAKER MAYFIELD, CLE
What could go right? Short answer: the skill position talent. Mayfield's crazy record of college level success had at least something to do with running a scheme, with a talent surplus, that allowed him to find mismatches all over the field against overwhelmed Big 12 D's. And he was an absolute master of it. He can process quickly down a decision tree, and usually makes a good choice. The downside is that that's a difficult situation to recreate in the NFL. But the Browns just may have the skill position talent to give it a run...if everything falls into place.
Maybe the Josh Gordon renaissance is real, and with more weapons around, he draws less attention, and becomes even more dominant one-on-one. Maybe Antonio Callaway proves that he had a switch to flip, and now that he's a pro, his off-field shenanigans were just juvenile outbursts that he can move past. Maybe Coleman makes the second year leap. Maybe Njoku proves to be a down-the-seam weapon on the level of Kelce with a year of experience and a decent QB. Together, or in combinations, maybe they thin things out enough that uber-underneath weapons like Duke and Landry can operate to maximum effectiveness, making Baker an efficiency machine. Maybe they find enough protection for Mayfield, and he sits in the pocket and runs this whole thing like a video game commander, picking the mismatch or hitting the open window that almost has to appear if you can put an A+ talent against a defender at every level of depth down the field. That's what they had to envision when they drafted Mayfield, and that's what the moves they made suggest they're trying to enact as a way of life.
What could go wrong? It may turn out that he simply can't create downfield. Doesn't prove to have the arm talent to thread small windows without ample time, and doesn't get the time to really unwind to make it happen behind a mishmash OL. Doesn't prove the athleticism to buy time with his feet, so the coaches hand the reins to someone who can, and Mayfield winds up carrying a clipboard for Tyrod most of the year. Grief and gnashing of teeth ensue.
1.03 - SAM DARNOLD, NYJ
What could go right? Psychology and team dynamics.
The golden-armed manchild who has always had everything come easy to him, and who because of it has been up and down in both intensity and effort, walks into camp on Day 1 and immediately finds himself third string behind two vets who (in very different ways) have had to bust their humps for everything they've ever earned. He falls behind early on, realizes that NOTHING is going to come easy in the pros, and the penny drops. Rocky music plays and he makes the decision that every pro game is as important as any Rose Bowl. McCown shows that he knows his role, and accepts a mentorship wherein he's not only willing but eager to prep the kid to take the wheel. Teddy pushes him in camp, because he still wants it so badly he can taste it, but ultimately he can't match the physical attributes Darnold can offer and loses the race. Sloppy reads, sloppy prep, and sloppy ball security all melt away, and an emboldened Darnold stops being a kid a year or two ahead of schedule because he got put in the perfect spot. Leadership ensues.
What could go wrong? Jeremy Bates.
Jeremy. Freaking. Bates. I have no idea how this guy has a job in the NFL, but putting him in position to be QB coach for a kid with ball security issues is borderline malpractice. He first took over as an assistant QB coach in 2004, and has been in and out of leadership roles with stints as a QB coach or OC since. Here are TD/INT, and QB FUM numbers for his offenses since...
2004 - 24/18, 11
2005 - 11/15, 19
2007 - 21/15, 13
2008 - 25/18, 5
2010 - 14/20, 9
2012 - 21/16, 10
2017 - 19/12, 12
Now, it would be true to say he hasn't exactly been in charge of a Murderer's Row of QB'ing talent. But it would also be true to say that pretty much every guy he coached has hit career nadirs in terms of ball security and productivity under his questionable tutelage. I don't think that you could hand select a worse developmental guide for a budding young star QB with effort issues.
1.07 - JOSH ALLEN, BUF
What could go right? Josh is unprecedented. The word unicorn is overused in this day and age, but it applies, here. We've never seen a prospect with his particular combo of strengths and weaknesses. And both are very, very real. The good news is that Josh's strengths are all things that are practically (or totally) unteachable at the pro level. His throwing fundamentals are right out of the How To Throw Like A Greek God manual. You can't teach his size, or his athleticism. You can't make a QB smart, if he isn't already. And there are some pretty dark and freaky psychological pathologies that simply won't allow a player to submit his will to a coach or team, while simultaneously taking charge of it like a boss on gameday. Josh seems to have all the right boxes checked, here.
His shortcomings, also very real, are happily also very coachable. The scaling down of the throwing mechanics for the short game. Continued improvement in his footwork. Timing on deep and complex patterns. And X's and O's. None of this will come quickly, but all of it should come if all goes well. No real hurdles are in the way. Kid's smart, attitude is good, fundamentals are on an otherworldly level, and the physical stuff is what you'd find under the encyclopedia entry: Pro QB.
What has to go right, is that his scouting profile proves to line up with his "necessary improvements" profile as well as the scouting report suggests it should. If so, he should be only about a year of full time reps and tutelage away from being an Andrew Luck clone, right down to the "Aw shucks" attitude.
What could go wrong? With that many boxes to check, obviously a lot of little things, any one of which could derail the experiment, even though in theory, none of them should. But the absolute worst thing for him would probably be getting forced into action too quickly. With that much catch-up work to do, the necessity of running reps full time to get the offensive machinery working for gameday would short circuit the learning process in, I believe, a tragic way.
The offense would have to be grossly simplified, and success would be nearly impossible. Allen's ready to run certain downfield elements of an NFL playbook right now, but the vast majority of the short and intermediate route tree would be an unmitigated disaster. Winning would be nearly impossible. Turnovers and physical punishment, near certainties. That kind of early physical and psychological trampling can easily send a developmental prospect down the wrong road in such a way that it's difficult to get pointed the right way again. Can McCarron hold down the fort well enough to give Allen the time he needs, so he can follow the McNair path? If anything happens to McCarron, can the Bills find another solution so that they can even ALLOW Allen to to develop, or will the pressures of the high pick and fat contract force their hand? Could the front office or sidelines survive another heaping helping of Nathan Peterman, even if it's for the greater good?
1.01 - BAKER MAYFIELD, CLE
What could go right? Short answer: the skill position talent. Mayfield's crazy record of college level success had at least something to do with running a scheme, with a talent surplus, that allowed him to find mismatches all over the field against overwhelmed Big 12 D's. And he was an absolute master of it. He can process quickly down a decision tree, and usually makes a good choice. The downside is that that's a difficult situation to recreate in the NFL. But the Browns just may have the skill position talent to give it a run...if everything falls into place.
Maybe the Josh Gordon renaissance is real, and with more weapons around, he draws less attention, and becomes even more dominant one-on-one. Maybe Antonio Callaway proves that he had a switch to flip, and now that he's a pro, his off-field shenanigans were just juvenile outbursts that he can move past. Maybe Coleman makes the second year leap. Maybe Njoku proves to be a down-the-seam weapon on the level of Kelce with a year of experience and a decent QB. Together, or in combinations, maybe they thin things out enough that uber-underneath weapons like Duke and Landry can operate to maximum effectiveness, making Baker an efficiency machine. Maybe they find enough protection for Mayfield, and he sits in the pocket and runs this whole thing like a video game commander, picking the mismatch or hitting the open window that almost has to appear if you can put an A+ talent against a defender at every level of depth down the field. That's what they had to envision when they drafted Mayfield, and that's what the moves they made suggest they're trying to enact as a way of life.
What could go wrong? It may turn out that he simply can't create downfield. Doesn't prove to have the arm talent to thread small windows without ample time, and doesn't get the time to really unwind to make it happen behind a mishmash OL. Doesn't prove the athleticism to buy time with his feet, so the coaches hand the reins to someone who can, and Mayfield winds up carrying a clipboard for Tyrod most of the year. Grief and gnashing of teeth ensue.
1.03 - SAM DARNOLD, NYJ
What could go right? Psychology and team dynamics.
The golden-armed manchild who has always had everything come easy to him, and who because of it has been up and down in both intensity and effort, walks into camp on Day 1 and immediately finds himself third string behind two vets who (in very different ways) have had to bust their humps for everything they've ever earned. He falls behind early on, realizes that NOTHING is going to come easy in the pros, and the penny drops. Rocky music plays and he makes the decision that every pro game is as important as any Rose Bowl. McCown shows that he knows his role, and accepts a mentorship wherein he's not only willing but eager to prep the kid to take the wheel. Teddy pushes him in camp, because he still wants it so badly he can taste it, but ultimately he can't match the physical attributes Darnold can offer and loses the race. Sloppy reads, sloppy prep, and sloppy ball security all melt away, and an emboldened Darnold stops being a kid a year or two ahead of schedule because he got put in the perfect spot. Leadership ensues.
What could go wrong? Jeremy Bates.
Jeremy. Freaking. Bates. I have no idea how this guy has a job in the NFL, but putting him in position to be QB coach for a kid with ball security issues is borderline malpractice. He first took over as an assistant QB coach in 2004, and has been in and out of leadership roles with stints as a QB coach or OC since. Here are TD/INT, and QB FUM numbers for his offenses since...
2004 - 24/18, 11
2005 - 11/15, 19
2007 - 21/15, 13
2008 - 25/18, 5
2010 - 14/20, 9
2012 - 21/16, 10
2017 - 19/12, 12
Now, it would be true to say he hasn't exactly been in charge of a Murderer's Row of QB'ing talent. But it would also be true to say that pretty much every guy he coached has hit career nadirs in terms of ball security and productivity under his questionable tutelage. I don't think that you could hand select a worse developmental guide for a budding young star QB with effort issues.
1.07 - JOSH ALLEN, BUF
What could go right? Josh is unprecedented. The word unicorn is overused in this day and age, but it applies, here. We've never seen a prospect with his particular combo of strengths and weaknesses. And both are very, very real. The good news is that Josh's strengths are all things that are practically (or totally) unteachable at the pro level. His throwing fundamentals are right out of the How To Throw Like A Greek God manual. You can't teach his size, or his athleticism. You can't make a QB smart, if he isn't already. And there are some pretty dark and freaky psychological pathologies that simply won't allow a player to submit his will to a coach or team, while simultaneously taking charge of it like a boss on gameday. Josh seems to have all the right boxes checked, here.
His shortcomings, also very real, are happily also very coachable. The scaling down of the throwing mechanics for the short game. Continued improvement in his footwork. Timing on deep and complex patterns. And X's and O's. None of this will come quickly, but all of it should come if all goes well. No real hurdles are in the way. Kid's smart, attitude is good, fundamentals are on an otherworldly level, and the physical stuff is what you'd find under the encyclopedia entry: Pro QB.
What has to go right, is that his scouting profile proves to line up with his "necessary improvements" profile as well as the scouting report suggests it should. If so, he should be only about a year of full time reps and tutelage away from being an Andrew Luck clone, right down to the "Aw shucks" attitude.
What could go wrong? With that many boxes to check, obviously a lot of little things, any one of which could derail the experiment, even though in theory, none of them should. But the absolute worst thing for him would probably be getting forced into action too quickly. With that much catch-up work to do, the necessity of running reps full time to get the offensive machinery working for gameday would short circuit the learning process in, I believe, a tragic way.
The offense would have to be grossly simplified, and success would be nearly impossible. Allen's ready to run certain downfield elements of an NFL playbook right now, but the vast majority of the short and intermediate route tree would be an unmitigated disaster. Winning would be nearly impossible. Turnovers and physical punishment, near certainties. That kind of early physical and psychological trampling can easily send a developmental prospect down the wrong road in such a way that it's difficult to get pointed the right way again. Can McCarron hold down the fort well enough to give Allen the time he needs, so he can follow the McNair path? If anything happens to McCarron, can the Bills find another solution so that they can even ALLOW Allen to to develop, or will the pressures of the high pick and fat contract force their hand? Could the front office or sidelines survive another heaping helping of Nathan Peterman, even if it's for the greater good?
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