The Big Three - Hawk, Sims, Greenway (1 Viewer)

[pretender]

I would like to see some discussion amongst the IDP sharks on these players right out of the box. There has been lots of predraft and some postdraft discussion but now that their have been some mini-camps and OTA - whats the scoop?

Lets assume they all will start day one and be healthy. Lets assume Hawk is WLB, Sims, WLB and Greenway WLB - where it appears they are slotted to start in their perspective defensive schemes. We all know they are talented. Who will struggle the most in learning the schemes and the speed of the game? What sort of predictions (outside FBG's) do you project for each player. Will one of them be DROY or do you see someone else getting that title (Mario, Huff et al) ?

I read that Greenway was having somewhat of a hard time adjusting to the speed of the game. Have heard nothing but good coming out of Green Bay with Hawk. Read that Sims was lining up with the 2nd team during OTA recently.

Do you see all starting at the beginning of the season and if they do - in a start 3 LB fantasy setting (appears to be the most popular) where do you rank them their rookie year and beyond? All number 3's?, Hawk possibly a number 1?

Personally and I am pretty new to IDP but from just the little I've read - I see Hawk as possibly being another Vilma his 1st year. I see Greenway and Sims struggling but possibly being considered a solid #3 linebacker in your fantasy squads (this 1st year). I also see DQJax up with these 3 players. I think he has the talent to win the ILB in Clevlend and being a real stud this year.

Thoughts IDPer's?

 

[Jene Bramel]

As my IDP/dynasty drafts approach, I've been thinking on this as well. Post draft, I've had them Hawk, Greenway, Sims, but extremely close - 1A, 1B, and 1C.

There is no question that AJ Hawk has excellent talent. I'm not convinced, however, that he'll be able to put up top ten numbers long term on the weak side, even as a three down player. The Packer 4-3 defense (which is a hybrid of the University of Miami's 4-3 stack) really highlights the MLB. As long as there is any kind of decent player in that role (and Barnett qualifies as decent), I think the value of the WLB will be diminished to some extent. Hawk will produce better than say, Junior Seau did next to Zach Thomas in the same system. But I don't think he'll have a Keith Bulluck type impact as a weak side linebacker. I don't see Vilma upside at all.

Sims and Greenway are really difficult for me to separate. Sims is quicker and more sudden, but Greenway has excellent game speed. Sims may be too aggressive and his concussion history is a minor, but legitimate concern. Greenway isn't quite as aggressive or strong, but very athletic for his size. Neither have anything resembling a Tampa-2 Mike next to them right now. I still consider the Minnesota defensive line superior to Detroit's, which works slightly in Greenway's favor.

I think this is the classic risk-reward situation. Greenway is the safer pick - he's almost certain to become a solid LB2 for years to come if he remains in a Tampa-2, but could succeed in any defense on the weak side. Sims could be a top five player in the mold of Derrick Brooks. But his reckless style could make him another Dan Morgan, and he is much less likely to perform well in a defense other than the Tampa-2 that allows him room to roam free of blockers for the most part.

When all is said and done, I'd probably draft Sims first. My drafting philosophy in an IDP/dynasty situation is to get studs when you can and I think Sims has the highest ceiling. Greenway and Hawk are right there as well; both are safe bets to be long time performers. I like Greenway's situation a little better though.

With regard to D'Qwell...I'm not buying his major upside either. Some on the board have suggested that he'll rack up tackles next to Andra Davis in Crennel's hybrid scheme. While Jackson has a lot of experience as a 3-4 ILB, I can't see both Davis and Jackson having a major impact. If Jackson ends up as the LILB, I'd put him right with the three guys above. If Davis remains at LILB, and he should, Jackson will produce in the mold of a Randall Godfrey, especially if he doesn't earn a three down role.

 

[WhoDat]

Sims

Hawk

Greenway

As Jene stated, Hawk's situation, scheme and partners in crime will see that his numbers might not make him a FF freak but he will be a great NFL player. If he finds his way to the MLB position, things change drastically and immediately. He is worth having on your team, though, as he will have solid numbers.

Sims was not drafted 9th to sit the bench and learn; play the SLB or even play the MLB in that scheme. I have read the warming and winning of hearts and minds stories from the Lion beat writers about Bailey, Lehman and the open competition for the LB jobs but I am not buying it. Considering team needs and the talent left on the table when he was picked, Sims was drafted to anchor the Tampa Cover-2 WLB position from August until he is either hurt or no longer a Lion. Unless he is as dumb as a bag of hammers or ends up on the PUP list Sims starts racking and wrecking in early September. Yes, I am a Lions homer but this guy plays and starts from Day One unless he cannot grasp the defense or he gets hurt. He'll know the defense by September.

I am just not a big Greenway fan. His situation is not that much different than Sims' but I do not see him having the floor or ceiling of either Hawk or Sims. Hawk and Sims are the better athletes and football players. I always take that into account when selecting someone in a draft. Total gut call but I see him being someone with a nice NFL career but never a difference maker nor a player that you could build your FF LB corp around. Jene's LB2 assessment is spot on in terms to Greenway's high side ROI.

If I were comparing these guys to cars, Hawk and Sims would be your high-end; tweaky and sometimes problematic sportscars. Greenway would be your reliable family sedan. That's just what I see.

He is not on the list but I am big on D. Ryans.

 

[Rozelle]

All playing/starting "will" and staying healthy, I would have to say Sims would be the most productive.

I like Sims and Greenway with having the best chance to lead their team in tackles. Both in a better situation than Hawk.

The speed of the game thing with Greenway, from what I read, was a one practice/session thing, no big deal ... though there may be something else out there I'm not aware of.

All 3 should be DROY candidates. Hawk would be my favorite.

I think they all will start from day one. Like all rookies I think they all will struggle some, but I think Hawk will adapt the quickest, followed by Greenway then Sims.

Down the road ...

Coming into the draft, I felt Hawk would be a MLB, I was surprised when the Packers drafted Hodge. Hawk is the best of the three, but as noted, not in the best situation. If he was ever to play in the middle, he would be an absolute beast,

better than Vilma IMO.

I'm one of those who dropped Sims down the draft board because of the concussions. It may never be an issue, but felt it was something to take into consideration. I had some concern it could be a situation of a brillant career being cut short. With that said, he should be extremely productive in Detroit's new scheme.

Ditto with Greenway in terms of scheme. He should be a very solid, highly productive LB this year and many years to come.

I cant see Hawk being a #1 LB under the current structure in Green Bay. All could be solids 2's.

I like DeMeco Ryans and D'Quell Jackson, actually had both ranked slighly ahead of Sims on my draft board (call me silly, but my draft board, in terms of rookies, looked funky last year having Ruud and Tatupu 1/2). I cant see Jackson putting up great numbers with Davis there. He should cut into Andre's numbers though. Ryans should start for Houston, the question is where (sam or will). I'm guessing/hoping will, and Greenwood moves to sam. DeMeco could put up some nice numbers if he lands at will.

In my 53 man dynasty league, only in 2nd season, I was on the wrong end of a serpantine when the LB run came last year. Most teams had 3 LB's before I drafted my first, so LB was a high priority this year. This played into me ranking Sims lower than most.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

good analysis here, i wont add much hot air.

long story short:

Greenway/Sims should put up DJohnson/Morrison's numbers from last year - nice solo tackle numbers, but short on the big plays. Sims could get modest INT/FF, Greenway some INT, but neither look like sack artists to me.

Hawk should put up Thurman numbers from last year - less solos but more assists and more big plays.

 

[Jene Bramel]

good analysis here, i wont add much hot air.

long story short:

Greenway/Sims should put up DJohnson/Morrison's numbers from last year - nice solo tackle numbers, but short on the big plays. Sims could get modest INT/FF, Greenway some INT, but neither look like sack artists to me.

Hawk should put up Thurman numbers from last year - less solos but more assists and more big plays.

Important point.And won't be expected to be in their particular versions (non-Lovie) of the Tampa-2. They'll have to prove themselves in pursuit and coverage to become Top 10 Derrick Brooks level performers.

 

[EBF]

From a dynasty perspective, I think McIntosh is the best value out of this year's dynasty crop. He comes at a much cheaper cost and appears to have comparable talent.

I think it's often wise to wait on your IDPs. In the past few years, I've seen guys use very early picks on players like Roy Williams, Derrick Johnson, and Sean Taylor. The production sometimes matches the hype (Polamalu, Peppers, Vilma), but it's often wise to sit back and wait.

For some reason, people always reach for marginal offensive talent over solid defensive prospects. Use that to your advantage. I've been able to pick up Tamba Hali, Tye Hill, Thomas Howard, and Bernard Pollard with round 4+ picks this year. Are these guys superstars? Probably not, but I'd argue that they offer pretty respectable odds of becoming useful FF players.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

i think sims is going to be a monster...

i may have been only staffer that had him in top 20 this season...

i like hawk next best, & it is close... in dynasty leagues, if owners are less risk averse & worried about concussion history, maybe hawk should get nod...

i am neither as high or down on greenway as some... he reminds me of a bigger tinoisamoa... not sure about this year, but i could see him having upside in the twenties in a year or two... he is a good athlete & football player but needs to get stronger...

 

[dapace2]

I would add that Greenway does have bust potential whereas I don't feel the other two do. I'm just not convinced he'll do as well as a pro as he did in college.

 

[Biabreakable]

Short term I think Greenway has the least compitition from other Lbers on the Vikings squad and therefore the best opportunity to make a ton of tackles. The Vikings also have a strong front 4 and will feature Greenway as thier clean up tackler. He may not have the high end athletic ability of Hawk or Sims but I think he will perform the best year one.

Greenway is a football player with great instincts which I think is more important than athletic ability. Just see Nap Harris as an example.

I think Greenway has the potential to put up top 15 tackle numbers in 2006.