The Buy 'high round busts' low theory (1 Viewer)

[wiscstlatlmia]

So I recently had a change of heart on fantasy football. For the last two years in one of my dynasty leagues ive had the thought that Acquiring studs was the most important thing to do and give up just about anything to get them. I Considered myself successful, by the end

of year two my team looked something like this:

Brady

Ray Rice

Sjax

Fitz

Calvin

That year I won the division and ended up coming in second place. But the biggest problem was I had nothing behind these guys and without luck I wouldn't have made the playoffs (coming in 7th in PPG in a 12 person league)...I had given up so much value and depth to get these guys that one big injury and my season would have been down the tubes. Although my roster looked pretty with the big names I decided I wanted to try a new way of managing my team.I started looking at dynasty drafts from the last 5 years and I noticed a few trends that kinda made me come to my buy low theory.

The first thing I noticed was the difference between actual value and perceived value of players. I asked myself what is this so called 'stud' that I was willing go to the end of the earth to get. a 'stud' IMO is really a subjective term to the perceived value in the eye of the general public.Sometimes the general public is right and sometimes they are wrong but IMO the talent level in the NFL is so elite that if players are put in the right situations or they get a little bit of luck they can become a 'stud'.

What I found when I was looking back at dynasty leagues is that very few players sustain there value over a long period of time, due to a bunch of reasons(injury, coaching,organization,etc).But also every year mid round picks in dynasty drafts emerge, even more recently because of more teams moving to RBBC and teams going with more of a passing attack(opening things up for more WRs to emerge.

It just seems some guys take longer to develop and become the players they are.The best values in fantasy football seem to be the former

first second and third round picks going into there second,third and fourth years that people have given up on. Guys like this emerge every year like clockwork it seems...some guys just need a while to 'get it'.

So I decided to literally tear apart my roster and grab all guys that fit those criteria. making bunches of trades and taking a lot of heat and criticism for making lots of trades that downgrade my perceived value, but, at the same time gaining depth and potential.

some of the major trades I made were the following:

1.Ray Rice for Jonathan Stewart and Felix Jones

2.Tony Romo for Stafford and 1.9

3Larry Fitzgerald for Jermichael Finley Mike Thomas and Fred Jackson

4.Calvin Johnson for Chris Wells Jermaine Gresham Ben Roethlisberger 1.4 1.5

5.Joseph Addai and 2.10 for Arrelious Benn

6.Ben Roethlisberger for Jordan Shipley and Matthew Stafford

7.Lee Evans Golden Tate for Demaryius Thomas

8Jahvid Best for CJ Spiller Brandon Lafell and 1.11

Some of these trades probably look like horrible rip offs right now and I'm still not sure about some of the deals ive made or some of the players that are on my team.But what I do know is Scouts loved all of these guys at some point for reasons and if any of these guys decide to put it together i will have gotten great value on them. and also in the process I sold high on most of the guys I traded(other than Fitzgerald an admittedly bad trade).

Ive made a few other deals but my roster looks like this now:

Romo, Tony DAL QB

Stafford, Matthew DET QB

Goodson, Mike CAR RB

Jones, Felix DAL RB

Spiller, C.J. BUF RB

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

Wells, Chris ARI RB

Avery, Donnie STL WR

Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

LaFell, Brandon CAR WR

Shipley, Jordan CIN WR

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

Thomas, Mike JAC WR

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE

Jets, New York NYJ Def

its 21 man rosters and I have four other draft picks 1.4,1.5,1.12 and 2.1

So..although I have no studs on my team anymore I have a full roster of guys that have potential and a shot to become starters at some point.(aka no waiver wire guys)

Im not sure how this is gonna work out and there is a chance this could blow up in my face...but im feeling frisky and willing to take a risk

so post opinions and give thoughts on what you think...if this is a widely used strategy then I apologize. but, either way I figured people like seeing trade values so theres some good info here.

 

[Chimp Magnet]

You liked Stafford so much you traded for him twice?

 

[rapidskies]

No way I would trade a stud for depth unless he is riding the benc h. Some of your trades are fine but my strategy is get studs and fish the waiver wire for future depth. My team looks alot like your pre-trade team:

Vick (waiver wire)

4.24 (traded turner/forte to get him)

Rice (traded Cutler, Bush, Pierre Thomas, 1.03 rookie to get him) Overpaid but oh well

Fitz (initial dynasty draft)

Mega (initial dynasty draft)

Gates (trade 3 guys for him in a package deal)

I think the only positions I would consider trading are Vick and Gates and I love to trade. The other guys are the cornerstones.

 

[thriftyrocker]

With 21 man rosters, having solid depth top to bottom can be a negative. At what point do you drop LaFell for a hot WR? Each week will test your commitment to guys like LaFell and Thomas and you'll usually wish you had dropped them a month earlier.

 

[Jersey35]

I don't like this at all. You've gutted your team for "depth".

Having depth is a good thing - particularly in dynasty, where depth can become your future studs. But you HAD a contender and you've now traded that away for a team that now might be a contender in a few years.

What good is having guys with potential on your bench when you can't even field a competitive starting lineup? Especially when you traded away that competitive starting lineup for that depth?

 

[bonesman]

You liked Stafford so much you traded for him twice?

And he traded Romo for Stafford but still has him on his team. Pretty horrible strategy in my opinion. I think it'll take more luck for those trades to work out than it will to have your "studs" stay injury-free.You went from Calvin and Fitz to a bunch of sorry scrubs. Benn and Demariyus are both coming off season ending surgery and probably won't be ready for week 1 next year.HOWEVER, you got Finley, so you're set... make an appt w/ the engraver right now because that trophy is YOURS>

 

[ClownDogs]

Some of those deals are good, some horrible. I like depth myself, BUT when you have Calvin and Fitz and turn them into MThomas and no other WR"s? THAT is what killed you in these deals imho.

GL

 

[Chimp Magnet]

I 100% understand what you were trying to do. But I think you went too far. There is no reason to walk away from Rice, Fitz, Calvin, and Brady. These guys will be great for the next 5 years probably. It would make sense to move SJax as I think he's winding down. But the rest of the guys would will be studs for years to come. You've now got a crap ton of question marks and hopes. Give me established studs and I'll build through the draft and waiver wire for depth. Sorry but I don't like the moves as a while.

 

[plastik]

Yeah... I agree with the other posters. Guys like Fitz and Calvin are the type of players that I like to build my team around, 'studs' that you can expect to be leading their position for years to come. You got a fairly substantial package for Calvin, but sold way too low on Fitz IMO.

When you have a ton of 'depth' but no 'studs', choosing starters will be a constant gamble as those sorts of players are often inconsistent, whereas with guys like Fitz and Calvin will often give you more consistent top-end performances (most years). I think you'd have been better served 'buying low' on a few veterans for depth, guys like Hines Ward (who's often been undervalued over the last 3-4 season due to his age), rather then trading your studs only to dilute your roster with gambles that may or may not pan out (which, imo, is a category that nearly all of your current WRs fall into).

As for 'buying low' in general... its a key strategy to success in dynasty leagues and there have been many threads on it in the shark pool. Sell players just before a decline from peak value (which is of course difficult to gauge) and buy undervalued players who are due to appreciate in value--if you can manage that you're team should continuously gain value.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

ok here is my point that you guys didnt get... The fact that these guys dont have value right now is what i was saying, guys like this emerge all the time look at past dynasty drafts you have had...how many guys emerge from the 5-8 rounds into solid talents and potentially elite talents. im not saying every guy is going to be a stud, im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing

all the follow guys were drafted in early rounds(of the nfl draft) and had mediocre rookie/sophmore campaigns which killed or dropped there perceived value.They were then had in middle round of dynasty drafts the year after.

2010

rb

lesean mccoy

darren mcfadden

wr

dywayne bowe

hakeem nicks

mike wallace

mike williams(tb)

2009

RB

Ray Rice

Jamaal Charles

Rashard Mendenhall

WR

Sydney Rice

Vincent Jackson

santonio holmes

2008

QB

Aaron Rodgers

Phillip Rivers

RB

Deangelo Williams

Matt Forte

Steve Slaton

WR

greg Jennings

2007

wr

Braylon Edwards

Roddy White

Brandon Marshall

Just because they dont have a lot of value doesnt mean they are not talented...Id say all of the guys on my roster have at least the potential for things to work out...if you disagree then i guess you disagree with the organizations that drafted them in the first 3 rounds

 

[KellysHeroes]

during the off-season you should try to aquire studs and aquire depth during the season vai waiver wire

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

You liked Stafford so much you traded for him twice?

And he traded Romo for Stafford but still has him on his team. Pretty horrible strategy in my opinion. I think it'll take more luck for those trades to work out than it will to have your "studs" stay injury-free.You went from Calvin and Fitz to a bunch of sorry scrubs. Benn and Demariyus are both coming off season ending surgery and probably won't be ready for week 1 next year.HOWEVER, you got Finley, so you're set... make an appt w/ the engraver right now because that trophy is YOURS>This is exactly the type of post im talking about lol...Benn and Demaryius are scrubs?im guessing you didnt have darren mcfadden on any of your teams last year cause he was a scrub too huh

 

[eaglesfan7]

I don't think these trades are as bad as everyone is saying and your team does have plenty of potential. Your receivers don't look too hot right now but anything can happen. At least you got Finley and a couple players out of the Fitz trade. You probably could have received a draft pick or two in that deal but it's not a catastrophe or anything.

 

[Aabye]

ok here is my point that you guys didnt get... The fact that these guys dont have value right now is what i was saying, guys like this emerge all the time look at past dynasty drafts you have had...how many guys emerge from the 5-8 rounds into solid talents and potentially elite talents. im not saying every guy is going to be a stud, im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing [...]Just because they dont have a lot of value doesnt mean they are not talented...Id say all of the guys on my roster have at least the potential for things to work out...if you disagree then i guess you disagree with the organizations that drafted them in the first 3 rounds

You have to be careful about cherry picking the players that actually do emerge. For instance, while Mike Wallace emerged as a 3rd round WR gem from the 2009 draft, Derrick Williams, Brandon Tate, Ramses Barden, Patrick Turner, Deon Butler, and Juaquin Iglesias did not.If you can consistently pick winners then you'll do wonderfully trading established veterans for young players who are poised to break out. If you can't, you'll most often find yourself holding a handful of rocks. You probably think you are good at picking winners, as most folks do. Just be aware that they built a city in Nevada with the money that all of those good folks gave them, so tread with caution.

 

[Dragon1952]

Studs help you win now. So you load your roster with talent and potential. So what happens if they don't all hit at the same time or not at all? You can't time when they will hit if at all, so what good does it do. Maybe you get lucky , but it's highly unlikely that enough of them contribute at once to get you a championship.

This roster here

Romo, Tony DAL QB

Stafford, Matthew DET QB

Goodson, Mike CAR RB

Jones, Felix DAL RB

Spiller, C.J. BUF RB

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

Wells, Chris ARI RB

Avery, Donnie STL WR

Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

LaFell, Brandon CAR WR

Shipley, Jordan CIN WR

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

Thomas, Mike JAC WR

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE

Jets, New York NYJ Def

is very unlikely to gel all at once and win a championship.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Studs help you win now. So you load your roster with talent and potential. So what happens if they don't all hit at the same time or not at all? You can't time when they will hit if at all, so what good does it do. Maybe you get lucky , but it's highly unlikely that enough of them contribute at once to get you a championship.This roster hereRomo, Tony DAL QBStafford, Matthew DET QBGoodson, Mike CAR RBJones, Felix DAL RBSpiller, C.J. BUF RBStewart, Jonathan CAR RBWells, Chris ARI RBAvery, Donnie STL WRBenn, Arrelious TBB WRCrabtree, Michael SFO WRLaFell, Brandon CAR WRShipley, Jordan CIN WRThomas, Demaryius DEN WRThomas, Mike JAC WRFinley, Jermichael GBP TEGresham, Jermaine CIN TEJets, New York NYJ Defis very unlikely to gel all at once and win a championship.

you are correct but i only have to hit on two or three guys to emerge as top guys as long as a few others are decent rb2s or wr3 things could be interesting

 

[datonn]

You have to be careful about cherry picking the players that actually do emerge. For instance, while Mike Wallace emerged as a 3rd round WR gem from the 2009 draft, Derrick Williams, Brandon Tate, Ramses Barden, Patrick Turner, Deon Butler, and Juaquin Iglesias did not.

If you can consistently pick winners then you'll do wonderfully trading established veterans for young players who are poised to break out. If you can't, you'll most often find yourself holding a handful of rocks. You probably think you are good at picking winners, as most folks do. Just be aware that they built a city in Nevada with the money that all of those good folks gave them, so tread with caution.

This. It is also the reason that FFL owners will continually move starting talent on their rosters just to get a chance at drafting ___________ in the 2nd/3rd/4th round. Probably 75-80% of the guys I play with value the unknown over the known when it comes to a tie-breaker. "I know _________ is an every week LB3...but there's a 0.000000003% chance that the WR scrub I draft with that 3.08 will be Mike Wallace!" Maybe I'm the anti-wiscstlatlmia, but for me? I'll take proven over potential any chance I am given. Unless proven = the tail-end of his career, as once players start getting around 30 (RBs), 32 (WR, TE, DE, DT, LB, CB, S) and 33-34 (QB), they are a ticking time-bomb related to their FFL value. IMHO, of course.

 

[Chimp Magnet]

Here's the thing though. You're hoping that a few of those guys hit over the next 2-3 years. But you had guys that already hit and walked from them for future potential. I learned this lesson the hard way. In dynasty, owners (myself included) are working so hard to find that next big stud that we sometimes don't realize the studs on our own roster.

What was your original roster? You only list a couple of guys. But surely you had more than that group. What was the rest?

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I just wanna say also that im not sure this is gonna work and im trying to have fun with this...if all 21 of my guys bust then ya know what...ill find another league...i hope it doesnt but if this experiment doesnt work then im willing to admit im wrong.Its just an idea im throwing around im not claiming to be right, the season has not even started yet

 

[Go deep]

To me the guys who are best as buying low and selling high will be the only guys who can build truly dominant dynasty teams. Anyone who isnt doing this to some degree is likely to be a team that will strugle to ever win a championship.

I will trade almost anyone, especially rbs, whose value I think has peaked. I think anyone who didnt at least try to trade Chris Johnson last year did themselves an injustice.

 

[datonn]

To me the guys who are best as buying low and selling high will be the only guys who can build truly dominant dynasty teams. Anyone who isnt doing this to some degree is likely to be a team that will strugle to ever win a championship. I will trade almost anyone, especially rbs, whose value I think has peaked. I think anyone who didnt at least try to trade Chris Johnson last year did themselves an injustice.

Yep. The other thing too, I think, is employing more of a mutual fund strategy. Successful owners are good/competitive pretty much every season. Because they are continually re-stocking their shelves with new/younger talent. You don't go all-in on "2011" (then quit a league...just about the biggest ****-move I can imagine) or completely piss away 2011-2012 in an all-out effort for 2013! Not unless your goose is already cooked, anyway. The "NFL" (Not For Long) is just about impossible to predict related player health, time shares, etc. beyond a season or two. So if you're dealing all of "now" for "later," odds are probably pretty good that you'll be a "lottery pick" for the indefinite future.Starters in their prime, some solid buy-low(er) prospects behind them, and addressing depth before it becomes an issue/need, not after. At least not at positions that are tough to find quality at via waivers. You do that, and you'll hopefully be good enough to make it into the second season (Weeks 14-16). No studs or no depth, however, and unless you make a deal with the devil, you're watching Week 15-16 from the sidelines.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing

If nearly nothing means multiple elite players in your language, then yeah.You did all of this hoping that "a few" of these guys will pan out and reach their potential, and become the "best case scenario" of themselves. Unfortunately, NONE of these guys have the potential that guys you traded away, like Fitz and Calvin, have ALREADY MET, for the most part. A couple of guys, like Stewart, have the chance to equal the production of what you traded away (Rice). But you already had that, and traded it away hoping that you could some time in the future come out even at best. That is not a sound strategy, in any way.Selling high and buying low is a great "theory" (that is widely used in every dynasty league, although you apparently didn't get that memo until this off-season)....but its horribly applied here. It seems you don't understand the concept fully.You have mis-managed this team straight into oblivion.My prediction? A year or two down the road, you quit this league because your "re-build" (which I'd call a "de-build") didn't work and your team isn't very competitive, and you're sick of waiting...you realize you liked being competitive each and every week of the regular and post-season. And the next owner to come in and take over your team will be told hilarious, yet sad stories about the roster his team USED to boast, before it was blown up entirely, in the wrong way.The only thing that's ####tier than going all in with a laughably bad strategy in a serious league? Already having a contingency plan in place if it fails: to quit and find a new league. Pathetic.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

So you traded away studs for guys you hope may become studs?

 

[Cassius]

if this is a widely used strategy then I apologize.

On the contrary, I think you just invented it.

 

[Chimp Magnet]

So you traded away studs for guys you hope may become studs?

On the plus side, he'll be drafting early each round for the next few years. If I were your league mates, i'd be less worried about your strategy and more worried that you said you'd quit the league of it failed. As a commish, i'd contemplate making that decision for you earlier.

 

[Spike]

I just wanna say also that im not sure this is gonna work and im trying to have fun with this...if all 21 of my guys bust then ya know what...ill find another league...i hope it doesnt but if this experiment doesnt work then im willing to admit im wrong.Its just an idea im throwing around im not claiming to be right, the season has not even started yet

I was with you in what you were trying to do - shake it up to increase your enjoyment.But when you say that if it doesn't work (badly) you'll just find another league, that's where I have to oppose your position.I guess it just drives me crazy when people bail on a team that they've really screwed up.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I just wanna say also that im not sure this is gonna work and im trying to have fun with this...if all 21 of my guys bust then ya know what...ill find another league...i hope it doesnt but if this experiment doesnt work then im willing to admit im wrong.Its just an idea im throwing around im not claiming to be right, the season has not even started yet

I was with you in what you were trying to do - shake it up to increase your enjoyment.But when you say that if it doesn't work (badly) you'll just find another league, that's where I have to oppose your position.I guess it just drives me crazy when people bail on a team that they've really screwed up.I wouldnt bail on the league. I Actually am very good friends with all the guys in this league. I meant that if this team takes a dive and I have to completely rebuild then maybe ill start another dynasty league because this is the only one im in right now.I agree with you..people that arnt active or just bail after a year drive me nuts too.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing

If nearly nothing means multiple elite players in your language, then yeah.You did all of this hoping that "a few" of these guys will pan out and reach their potential, and become the "best case scenario" of themselves. Unfortunately, NONE of these guys have the potential that guys you traded away, like Fitz and Calvin, have ALREADY MET, for the most part. A couple of guys, like Stewart, have the chance to equal the production of what you traded away (Rice). But you already had that, and traded it away hoping that you could some time in the future come out even at best. That is not a sound strategy, in any way.Selling high and buying low is a great "theory" (that is widely used in every dynasty league, although you apparently didn't get that memo until this off-season)....but its horribly applied here. It seems you don't understand the concept fully.You have mis-managed this team straight into oblivion.My prediction? A year or two down the road, you quit this league because your "re-build" (which I'd call a "de-build") didn't work and your team isn't very competitive, and you're sick of waiting...you realize you liked being competitive each and every week of the regular and post-season. And the next owner to come in and take over your team will be told hilarious, yet sad stories about the roster his team USED to boast, before it was blown up entirely, in the wrong way.The only thing that's ####tier than going all in with a laughably bad strategy in a serious league? Already having a contingency plan in place if it fails: to quit and find a new league. Pathetic.First...I wouldnt quit...I would just join ANOTHER dynasty while I was in the pooper in this one...You my friend Clearly didnt read anything I have said.Why is ray rice anymore of a stud than Stewart Spiller Wells or Felix? You may say situation, but, surely not talent alone. Your making judgements on perceived value and what everyone else is saying...good luck with that strategy.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing

If nearly nothing means multiple elite players in your language, then yeah.You did all of this hoping that "a few" of these guys will pan out and reach their potential, and become the "best case scenario" of themselves. Unfortunately, NONE of these guys have the potential that guys you traded away, like Fitz and Calvin, have ALREADY MET, for the most part. A couple of guys, like Stewart, have the chance to equal the production of what you traded away (Rice). But you already had that, and traded it away hoping that you could some time in the future come out even at best. That is not a sound strategy, in any way.Selling high and buying low is a great "theory" (that is widely used in every dynasty league, although you apparently didn't get that memo until this off-season)....but its horribly applied here. It seems you don't understand the concept fully.You have mis-managed this team straight into oblivion.My prediction? A year or two down the road, you quit this league because your "re-build" (which I'd call a "de-build") didn't work and your team isn't very competitive, and you're sick of waiting...you realize you liked being competitive each and every week of the regular and post-season. And the next owner to come in and take over your team will be told hilarious, yet sad stories about the roster his team USED to boast, before it was blown up entirely, in the wrong way.The only thing that's ####tier than going all in with a laughably bad strategy in a serious league? Already having a contingency plan in place if it fails: to quit and find a new league. Pathetic.

First...I wouldnt quit...I would just join ANTOTHER dynasty while I was in the pooper in this one...You my friend Clearly didnt read anything I have said.Why is ray rice anymore of a stud than Stewart Spiller Wells or Felix? You may say situation, but, surely not talent alone. Your making judgements on perceived value and what everyone else is saying...good luck with that strategy.Ray Rice is more of a stud because he's already produced elite numbers, and is young. He's proven he can do it. The only player you acquired in these deals that has come close, and most definitely will again, is Stewart. So of course you'd focus on him. But again, you have to hope for the best case scenario to ever see Stewart even equal Rice's numbers. And how often does the base case scenario actually work out? Now imagine that to even come close to breaking even, half of the guys you traded for would need to fulfill their potential, at least, to rival the production of the sure-fire studs you traded away. That's NOT a good strategy when you had such a solid team. I currently own Stewart, and recently traded away Wells. Have never been a Spiller or Felix owner. I'm well aware of the talent they possess. The point is, you didn't do any "buying low" in these trades. Nor did you effectively "sell high" in most of them.

 

[domvin]

Romo, Tony DAL QB

Stafford, Matthew DET QB

Goodson, Mike CAR RB

Jones, Felix DAL RB

Spiller, C.J. BUF RB

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

Wells, Chris ARI RB

Avery, Donnie STL WR

Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

LaFell, Brandon CAR WR

Shipley, Jordan CIN WR

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

Thomas, Mike JAC WR

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE

Jets, New York NYJ Def

I did something similar, trading studs off a 22 man roster i a 12 team league last off-season.

Dealt Brady, for Ben and future 1st

Dealt Turner and 1.8 for Mathews and DMC

Dealt Gore for Pierre and Mike Wallace

Dealt Fitz and Bernard Scott for VJAX and Bowe

I was concerned my team was going to fall off a cliff at the same time, and similarly, everyone said I was crazy-just like the majority here. The biggest difference though, is you traded guys in their prime. The only guy I sometimes regret is trading Fitz....for obvious reasons, but I think I still did fairly well. I dig the blind faith approach, but I think it may have gone overboard

I think you gave up on some of these guys way too soon, and maybe there is not a lot of money involved in the league. What's the pot win? What's the entry fee?

Potential is great, but it also means hasn't done c r a p yet and maybe never will.

 

[Go deep]

im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing

If nearly nothing means multiple elite players in your language, then yeah.You did all of this hoping that "a few" of these guys will pan out and reach their potential, and become the "best case scenario" of themselves. Unfortunately, NONE of these guys have the potential that guys you traded away, like Fitz and Calvin, have ALREADY MET, for the most part. A couple of guys, like Stewart, have the chance to equal the production of what you traded away (Rice). But you already had that, and traded it away hoping that you could some time in the future come out even at best. That is not a sound strategy, in any way.

Selling high and buying low is a great "theory" (that is widely used in every dynasty league, although you apparently didn't get that memo until this off-season)....but its horribly applied here. It seems you don't understand the concept fully.

You have mis-managed this team straight into oblivion.

My prediction? A year or two down the road, you quit this league because your "re-build" (which I'd call a "de-build") didn't work and your team isn't very competitive, and you're sick of waiting...you realize you liked being competitive each and every week of the regular and post-season.

And the next owner to come in and take over your team will be told hilarious, yet sad stories about the roster his team USED to boast, before it was blown up entirely, in the wrong way.

The only thing that's ####tier than going all in with a laughably bad strategy in a serious league? Already having a contingency plan in place if it fails: to quit and find a new league. Pathetic.

First...I wouldnt quit...I would just join ANTOTHER dynasty while I was in the pooper in this one...You my friend Clearly didnt read anything I have said.Why is ray rice anymore of a stud than Stewart Spiller Wells or Felix? You may say situation, but, surely not talent alone. Your making judgements on perceived value and what everyone else is saying...good luck with that strategy.Ray Rice is more of a stud because he's already produced elite numbers, and is young. He's proven he can do it. The only player you acquired in these deals that has come close, and most definitely will again, is Stewart. So of course you'd focus on him. But again, you have to hope for the best case scenario to ever see Stewart even equal Rice's numbers. And how often does the base case scenario actually work out? Now imagine that to even come close to breaking even, half of the guys you traded for would need to fulfill their potential, at least, to rival the production of the sure-fire studs you traded away. That's NOT a good strategy when you had such a solid team.

I currently own Stewart, and recently traded away Wells. Have never been a Spiller or Felix owner. I'm well aware of the talent they possess.

The point is, you didn't do any "buying low" in these trades. Nor did you effectively "sell high" in most of them.



Like i said, Buying low and selling high is the key to a good dynasty team. I just dont think the OP did a very good job of doing that.

You dont sell a player and hope the player you get can put up equal production. You trade a player when his value has peaked for multiple players that you think have a good chance at reaching that players success or more. I love trading RB's once they hit their peak for another RB that i thnk is about to peak, along with a good young WR and an early draft pick. I have built all my dynasty teams basically doing this exact thing. Last season i traded Chris Johnson after his 2000 yard season because i could basically name my price for him. I dont care who the player is, but once that player becomes one of the most sought after players its probably time to consider trading him.

 

[Go deep]

Romo, Tony DAL QB

Stafford, Matthew DET QB

Goodson, Mike CAR RB

Jones, Felix DAL RB

Spiller, C.J. BUF RB

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

Wells, Chris ARI RB

Avery, Donnie STL WR

Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

LaFell, Brandon CAR WR

Shipley, Jordan CIN WR

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

Thomas, Mike JAC WR

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE

Jets, New York NYJ Def

I did something similar, trading studs off a 22 man roster i a 12 team league last off-season.

Dealt Brady, for Ben and future 1st

Dealt Turner and 1.8 for Mathews and DMC

Dealt Gore for Pierre and Mike Wallace

Dealt Fitz and Bernard Scott for VJAX and Bowe

I was concerned my team was going to fall off a cliff at the same time, and similarly, everyone said I was crazy-just like the majority here. The biggest difference though, is you traded guys in their prime. The only guy I sometimes regret is trading Fitz....for obvious reasons, but I think I still did fairly well. I dig the blind faith approach, but I think it may have gone overboard

I think you gave up on some of these guys way too soon, and maybe there is not a lot of money involved in the league. What's the pot win? What's the entry fee?

Potential is great, but it also means hasn't done c r a p yet and maybe never will.

The problem with these trades is most people wont be able to get the players you did for older players like that. Especially that Turner trade, who in their right mind would trade that for Turner?

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing

If nearly nothing means multiple elite players in your language, then yeah.You did all of this hoping that "a few" of these guys will pan out and reach their potential, and become the "best case scenario" of themselves. Unfortunately, NONE of these guys have the potential that guys you traded away, like Fitz and Calvin, have ALREADY MET, for the most part. A couple of guys, like Stewart, have the chance to equal the production of what you traded away (Rice). But you already had that, and traded it away hoping that you could some time in the future come out even at best. That is not a sound strategy, in any way.Selling high and buying low is a great "theory" (that is widely used in every dynasty league, although you apparently didn't get that memo until this off-season)....but its horribly applied here. It seems you don't understand the concept fully.You have mis-managed this team straight into oblivion.My prediction? A year or two down the road, you quit this league because your "re-build" (which I'd call a "de-build") didn't work and your team isn't very competitive, and you're sick of waiting...you realize you liked being competitive each and every week of the regular and post-season. And the next owner to come in and take over your team will be told hilarious, yet sad stories about the roster his team USED to boast, before it was blown up entirely, in the wrong way.The only thing that's ####tier than going all in with a laughably bad strategy in a serious league? Already having a contingency plan in place if it fails: to quit and find a new league. Pathetic.

First...I wouldnt quit...I would just join ANTOTHER dynasty while I was in the pooper in this one...You my friend Clearly didnt read anything I have said.Why is ray rice anymore of a stud than Stewart Spiller Wells or Felix? You may say situation, but, surely not talent alone. Your making judgements on perceived value and what everyone else is saying...good luck with that strategy.Ray Rice is more of a stud because he's already produced elite numbers, and is young. He's proven he can do it. The only player you acquired in these deals that has come close, and most definitely will again, is Stewart. So of course you'd focus on him. But again, you have to hope for the best case scenario to ever see Stewart even equal Rice's numbers. And how often does the base case scenario actually work out? Now imagine that to even come close to breaking even, half of the guys you traded for would need to fulfill their potential, at least, to rival the production of the sure-fire studs you traded away. That's NOT a good strategy when you had such a solid team. I currently own Stewart, and recently traded away Wells. Have never been a Spiller or Felix owner. I'm well aware of the talent they possess. The point is, you didn't do any "buying low" in these trades. Nor did you effectively "sell high" in most of them.Ok...I am going to say this one more time......................The point I am trying to make is that people get to caught up in rankings and who has the best reputation...Players value in dynasty rankings fluctuate more than they should and people give up on guys too quickly. You saying I didn't successfully buy low or sell high is purely your opinion.There are so many variables in football that a guys situation(and value) can change on a dime. I want you to think about something else. How do you think I got these guys on my team? For the first two years I was all about studs, I thought that was the only way you could win. Well I won with that team and had 4 studs. But you know what? I was 7th in scoring Last year and I thought there were a bunch more teams that were better than me and my 4 studs.So since I already won and am playing with house money, I figured why not try something new. Its pretty stressful banking on 4 guys to dominate every week or else your gonna lose. Not to say I didn't have any other guys that were solid. I lost Dallas Clark early on(lucky to have Cooley).The fact of the matter is that if I went into next season and lost one of my studs, I am fresh out of luck. I love Calvin But who knows if the lions ever become a competent organization. Who knows if Fitz gets a QB? These guys are elite talents but they also can be affected by things they do not have control over.So I guess at this point id rather have faith in a full roster of talented guys who could do something Rather then a few elite stud talents and a bunch of waiver wire guys.One freak injury to Calvin or Fitz and the perceived value of my team takes a much bigger hit than if one of my guys that I have now busts Altogether. Almost seems a bit safer strategy to me. To be honest I wasnt a spiller guy when he got drafted nor was I a Felix guy. I also realize beanie sucked last year. Demaryius is coming off an injury most guys do not come back from and Benn tore his ACL.Crabtree Is prima donna and is in a bad situation.Finley is widely overrated In some peoples opinion and Mike Thomas is short. But I started to realize my opinion doesnt matter and me being to proud to pick up certain guys has just hurt me in the long run. I remember not liking Chris Johnson, Roddy White and Lesean Mccoy and I'm sure there where plenty others who felt the same way, well I was wrong and I'm sure there were plenty others I was wrong about. The one thing I learned from listening to footballguys podcasts is that all these guys are talented and given the right situation, can produce.So, I decided to throw my pride away and stop pretending I knew more than I did...These guys are first 3 round talents ...They all have a shot to produce ...End of story.

 

[Cassius]

Ok...I am going to say this one more time......................The point I am trying to make is that people get to caught up in rankings and who has the best reputation...Players value in dynasty rankings fluctuate more than they should and people give up on guys too quickly. You saying I didn't successfully buy low or sell high is purely your opinion.There are so many variables in football that a guys situation(and value) can change on a dime. I want you to think about something else. How do you think I got these guys on my team? For the first two years I was all about studs, I thought that was the only way you could win. Well I won with that team and had 4 studs. But you know what? I was 7th in scoring Last year and I thought there were a bunch more teams that were better than me and my 4 studs.So since I already won and am playing with house money, I figured why not try something new. Its pretty stressful banking on 4 guys to dominate every week or else your gonna lose. Not to say I didn't have any other guys that were solid. I lost Dallas Clark early on(lucky to have Cooley).The fact of the matter is that if I went into next season and lost one of my studs, I am fresh out of luck. I love Calvin But who knows if the lions ever become a competent organization. Who knows if Fitz gets a QB? These guys are elite talents but they also can be affected by things they do not have control over.So I guess at this point id rather have faith in a full roster of talented guys who could do something Rather then a few elite stud talents and a bunch of waiver wire guys.One freak injury to Calvin or Fitz and the perceived value of my team takes a much bigger hit than if one of my guys that I have now busts Altogether. Almost seems a bit safer strategy to me. To be honest I wasnt a spiller guy when he got drafted nor was I a Felix guy. I also realize beanie sucked last year. Demaryius is coming off an injury most guys do not come back from and Benn tore his ACL.Crabtree Is prima donna and is in a bad situation.Finley is widely overrated In some peoples opinion and Mike Thomas is short. But I started to realize my opinion doesnt matter and me being to proud to pick up certain guys has just hurt me in the long run. I remember not liking Chris Johnson, Roddy White and Lesean Mccoy and I'm sure there where plenty others who felt the same way, well I was wrong and I'm sure there were plenty others I was wrong about. The one thing I learned from listening to footballguys podcasts is that all these guys are talented and given the right situation, can produce.So, I decided to throw my pride away and stop pretending I knew more than I did...These guys are first 3 round talents ...They all have a shot to produce ...End of story.

Doesn't change anything. Everyone knows what you were trying to do. What everyone saying is that you failed. You didn't sell high, you sold low. You didn't buy low, you bought hi. Most of those trades are terrible. Besides, selling high on a specific player is much different than attempting to sell high on all your studs just because they're studs. That's not what selling high is.

 

[Go deep]

im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing

If nearly nothing means multiple elite players in your language, then yeah.You did all of this hoping that "a few" of these guys will pan out and reach their potential, and become the "best case scenario" of themselves. Unfortunately, NONE of these guys have the potential that guys you traded away, like Fitz and Calvin, have ALREADY MET, for the most part. A couple of guys, like Stewart, have the chance to equal the production of what you traded away (Rice). But you already had that, and traded it away hoping that you could some time in the future come out even at best. That is not a sound strategy, in any way.

Selling high and buying low is a great "theory" (that is widely used in every dynasty league, although you apparently didn't get that memo until this off-season)....but its horribly applied here. It seems you don't understand the concept fully.

You have mis-managed this team straight into oblivion.

My prediction? A year or two down the road, you quit this league because your "re-build" (which I'd call a "de-build") didn't work and your team isn't very competitive, and you're sick of waiting...you realize you liked being competitive each and every week of the regular and post-season.

And the next owner to come in and take over your team will be told hilarious, yet sad stories about the roster his team USED to boast, before it was blown up entirely, in the wrong way.

The only thing that's ####tier than going all in with a laughably bad strategy in a serious league? Already having a contingency plan in place if it fails: to quit and find a new league. Pathetic.

First...I wouldnt quit...I would just join ANTOTHER dynasty while I was in the pooper in this one...You my friend Clearly didnt read anything I have said.Why is ray rice anymore of a stud than Stewart Spiller Wells or Felix? You may say situation, but, surely not talent alone. Your making judgements on perceived value and what everyone else is saying...good luck with that strategy.

Ray Rice is more of a stud because he's already produced elite numbers, and is young. He's proven he can do it. The only player you acquired in these deals that has come close, and most definitely will again, is Stewart. So of course you'd focus on him. But again, you have to hope for the best case scenario to ever see Stewart even equal Rice's numbers. And how often does the base case scenario actually work out? Now imagine that to even come close to breaking even, half of the guys you traded for would need to fulfill their potential, at least, to rival the production of the sure-fire studs you traded away. That's NOT a good strategy when you had such a solid team.

I currently own Stewart, and recently traded away Wells. Have never been a Spiller or Felix owner. I'm well aware of the talent they possess.

The point is, you didn't do any "buying low" in these trades. Nor did you effectively "sell high" in most of them.

Ok...I am going to say this one more time......................The point I am trying to make is that people get to caught up in rankings and who has the best reputation...Players value in dynasty rankings fluctuate more than they should and people give up on guys too quickly. You saying I didn't successfully buy low or sell high is purely your opinion.There are so many variables in football that a guys situation(and value) can change on a dime. I want you to think about something else. How do you think I got these guys on my team? For the first two years I was all about studs, I thought that was the only way you could win. Well I won with that team and had 4 studs. But you know what? I was 7th in scoring Last year and I thought there were a bunch more teams that were better than me and my 4 studs.So since I already won and am playing with house money, I figured why not try something new. Its pretty stressful banking on 4 guys to dominate every week or else your gonna lose. Not to say I didn't have any other guys that were solid. I lost Dallas Clark early on(lucky to have Cooley).The fact of the matter is that if I went into next season and lost one of my studs, I am fresh out of luck. I love Calvin But who knows if the lions ever become a competent organization. Who knows if Fitz gets a QB? These guys are elite talents but they also can be affected by things they do not have control over.So I guess at this point id rather have faith in a full roster of talented guys who could do something Rather then a few elite stud talents and a bunch of waiver wire guys.One freak injury to Calvin or Fitz and the perceived value of my team takes a much bigger hit than if one of my guys that I have now busts Altogether. Almost seems a bit safer strategy to me. To be honest I wasnt a spiller guy when he got drafted nor was I a Felix guy. I also realize beanie sucked last year. Demaryius is coming off an injury most guys do not come back from and Benn tore his ACL.Crabtree Is prima donna and is in a bad situation.Finley is widely overrated In some peoples opinion and Mike Thomas is short. But I started to realize my opinion doesnt matter and me being to proud to pick up certain guys has just hurt me in the long run. I remember not liking Chris Johnson, Roddy White and Lesean Mccoy and I'm sure there where plenty others who felt the same way, well I was wrong and I'm sure there were plenty others I was wrong about. The one thing I learned from listening to footballguys podcasts is that all these guys are talented and given the right situation, can produce.So, I decided to throw my pride away and stop pretending I knew more than I did...These guys are first 3 round talents ...They all have a shot to produce ...End of story.Your right, that those trades might work out for you. The point he, and others, is trying to make is you didnt do a good job of getting what you could have based on perceived value. Thats the whole point to buying low and selling high. You are selling players for more than they are worth, because they are "big named" players for players who are not yet "big names". Again, some of those trades may work out for you, but you should/could have gotten more.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Exactly. Its ironic that he's saying that our criticisms of his use of the "buy low, sell high" strategy are nothing but our perception of the players/trades....when the whole point of buying low and selling high is to take advantage of a player's perceived value. This is supposed to work because the perceived value is different from the player's actual value to you, the owner. Or you'd never buy or sell these guys.

I'm not sure why you'd start an entire thread on the de-construction of your team, on a message board full of fantasy/dynasty enthusiasts, and then get upset with the responses.

But, I'm not surprised: you actually thought that the "theory" of buying low and selling high was a fairly new thing in dynasty leagues, and are just discovering it. And butchering it.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Exactly. Its ironic that he's saying that our criticisms of his use of the "buy low, sell high" strategy are nothing but our perception of the players/trades....when the whole point of buying low and selling high is to take advantage of a player's perceived value. This is supposed to work because the perceived value is different from the player's actual value to you, the owner. Or you'd never buy or sell these guys.I'm not sure why you'd start an entire thread on the de-construction of your team, on a message board full of fantasy/dynasty enthusiasts, and then get upset with the responses. But, I'm not surprised: you actually thought that the "theory" of buying low and selling high was a fairly new thing in dynasty leagues, and are just discovering it. And butchering it.

How much of an enthusiast can you be if you only found out about this site in January? I clearly wasn't talking about buying low and selling high cause that is the point of fantasy football.I was talking about trading your studs for buy low guys that have been given up on even though they may still have elite talent...yes I understand all these trades look horrible...you guys are right I failed on some of the trades to get max value, but I still ended up with the team I wanted. It was just a thought I figured some people might find interesting... fantasy football again is suppose to be fun and not to make a living...It seems your taking everything a little to seriously and making things a bit personal. I'm sorry if I offended you and I apologize if you think my thoughts are ignorant.The post right before you got his point across very well with out coming at me and I think you should learn how to do the same.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I just wanna say also that im not sure this is gonna work and im trying to have fun with this...

I'm sure a couple of your league-mates had some fun with your new approach as well. your probably right.

 

[domvin]

How many teams, and what is the buy in here?

 

[Go deep]

Ok...I am going to say this one more time......................The point I am trying to make is that people get to caught up in rankings and who has the best reputation...Players value in dynasty rankings fluctuate more than they should and people give up on guys too quickly. You saying I didn't successfully buy low or sell high is purely your opinion.There are so many variables in football that a guys situation(and value) can change on a dime. I want you to think about something else. How do you think I got these guys on my team? For the first two years I was all about studs, I thought that was the only way you could win. Well I won with that team and had 4 studs. But you know what? I was 7th in scoring Last year and I thought there were a bunch more teams that were better than me and my 4 studs.So since I already won and am playing with house money, I figured why not try something new. Its pretty stressful banking on 4 guys to dominate every week or else your gonna lose. Not to say I didn't have any other guys that were solid. I lost Dallas Clark early on(lucky to have Cooley).The fact of the matter is that if I went into next season and lost one of my studs, I am fresh out of luck. I love Calvin But who knows if the lions ever become a competent organization. Who knows if Fitz gets a QB? These guys are elite talents but they also can be affected by things they do not have control over.So I guess at this point id rather have faith in a full roster of talented guys who could do something Rather then a few elite stud talents and a bunch of waiver wire guys.One freak injury to Calvin or Fitz and the perceived value of my team takes a much bigger hit than if one of my guys that I have now busts Altogether. Almost seems a bit safer strategy to me. To be honest I wasnt a spiller guy when he got drafted nor was I a Felix guy. I also realize beanie sucked last year. Demaryius is coming off an injury most guys do not come back from and Benn tore his ACL.Crabtree Is prima donna and is in a bad situation.Finley is widely overrated In some peoples opinion and Mike Thomas is short. But I started to realize my opinion doesnt matter and me being to proud to pick up certain guys has just hurt me in the long run. I remember not liking Chris Johnson, Roddy White and Lesean Mccoy and I'm sure there where plenty others who felt the same way, well I was wrong and I'm sure there were plenty others I was wrong about. The one thing I learned from listening to footballguys podcasts is that all these guys are talented and given the right situation, can produce.So, I decided to throw my pride away and stop pretending I knew more than I did...These guys are first 3 round talents ...They all have a shot to produce ...End of story.

Doesn't change anything. Everyone knows what you were trying to do. What everyone saying is that you failed. You didn't sell high, you sold low. You didn't buy low, you bought hi. Most of those trades are terrible. Besides, selling high on a specific player is much different than attempting to sell high on all your studs just because they're studs. That's not what selling high is.I actually dont think any of the trades were "terrible". I probabaly wouldnt have done most of them, but the Calvin one seems to hurt more than the others. I do like Wells though, and getting 2 of Ingram, Green, Williams, Jones and Leshoure, plus Big Ben and Gresham isnt too bad. I would probably prefer Fitz to Finley, but the two are pretty close in value, so that trade wasnt terrible.I actually really like the Rice trade. In non-ppr, i have Stewart and Rice as close to even as it gets, so he gets Jones for nothing.Best for Spiller and a first isnt too bad either.I think he got OK value here, i just dont think he sold high or bought low.

 

[domvin]

Romo, Tony DAL QB

Stafford, Matthew DET QB

Goodson, Mike CAR RB

Jones, Felix DAL RB

Spiller, C.J. BUF RB

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

Wells, Chris ARI RB

Avery, Donnie STL WR

Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

LaFell, Brandon CAR WR

Shipley, Jordan CIN WR

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

Thomas, Mike JAC WR

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE

Jets, New York NYJ Def

I did something similar, trading studs off a 22 man roster i a 12 team league last off-season.

Dealt Brady, for Ben and future 1st

Dealt Turner and 1.8 for Mathews and DMC

Dealt Gore for Pierre and Mike Wallace

Dealt Fitz and Bernard Scott for VJAX and Bowe

I was concerned my team was going to fall off a cliff at the same time, and similarly, everyone said I was crazy-just like the majority here. The biggest difference though, is you traded guys in their prime. The only guy I sometimes regret is trading Fitz....for obvious reasons, but I think I still did fairly well. I dig the blind faith approach, but I think it may have gone overboard

I think you gave up on some of these guys way too soon, and maybe there is not a lot of money involved in the league. What's the pot win? What's the entry fee?

Potential is great, but it also means hasn't done c r a p yet and maybe never will.

The problem with these trades is most people wont be able to get the players you did for older players like that. Especially that Turner trade, who in their right mind would trade that for Turner?The Turner trade was a guy a piece away from title contention. And keep in mind, DMC's value was mud last March

 

[Go deep]

Romo, Tony DAL QB

Stafford, Matthew DET QB

Goodson, Mike CAR RB

Jones, Felix DAL RB

Spiller, C.J. BUF RB

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

Wells, Chris ARI RB

Avery, Donnie STL WR

Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

LaFell, Brandon CAR WR

Shipley, Jordan CIN WR

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

Thomas, Mike JAC WR

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE

Jets, New York NYJ Def

I did something similar, trading studs off a 22 man roster i a 12 team league last off-season.

Dealt Brady, for Ben and future 1st

Dealt Turner and 1.8 for Mathews and DMC

Dealt Gore for Pierre and Mike Wallace

Dealt Fitz and Bernard Scott for VJAX and Bowe

I was concerned my team was going to fall off a cliff at the same time, and similarly, everyone said I was crazy-just like the majority here. The biggest difference though, is you traded guys in their prime. The only guy I sometimes regret is trading Fitz....for obvious reasons, but I think I still did fairly well. I dig the blind faith approach, but I think it may have gone overboard

I think you gave up on some of these guys way too soon, and maybe there is not a lot of money involved in the league. What's the pot win? What's the entry fee?

Potential is great, but it also means hasn't done c r a p yet and maybe never will.

The problem with these trades is most people wont be able to get the players you did for older players like that. Especially that Turner trade, who in their right mind would trade that for Turner?

The Turner trade was a guy a piece away from title contention. And keep in mind, DMC's value was mud last MarchIt makes it a little better since you did it last March, but those trades your leaguemates made with you are worse than any of the trades this guy made.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

How many teams, and what is the buy in here?

12 team and 80 bucks for the buy in

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Romo, Tony DAL QBStafford, Matthew DET QBGoodson, Mike CAR RBJones, Felix DAL RBSpiller, C.J. BUF RBStewart, Jonathan CAR RBWells, Chris ARI RBAvery, Donnie STL WRBenn, Arrelious TBB WRCrabtree, Michael SFO WRLaFell, Brandon CAR WRShipley, Jordan CIN WRThomas, Demaryius DEN WRThomas, Mike JAC WRFinley, Jermichael GBP TEGresham, Jermaine CIN TEJets, New York NYJ DefI did something similar, trading studs off a 22 man roster i a 12 team league last off-season.Dealt Brady, for Ben and future 1stDealt Turner and 1.8 for Mathews and DMCDealt Gore for Pierre and Mike WallaceDealt Fitz and Bernard Scott for VJAX and BoweI was concerned my team was going to fall off a cliff at the same time, and similarly, everyone said I was crazy-just like the majority here. The biggest difference though, is you traded guys in their prime. The only guy I sometimes regret is trading Fitz....for obvious reasons, but I think I still did fairly well. I dig the blind faith approach, but I think it may have gone overboardI think you gave up on some of these guys way too soon, and maybe there is not a lot of money involved in the league. What's the pot win? What's the entry fee?Potential is great, but it also means hasn't done c r a p yet and maybe never will.

i hope my trades end up even close to yours

 

[eaglesfan7]

How many teams, and what is the buy in here?

12 team and 80 bucks for the buy inFor $80 I would have fun with it as well. These guys act like it's the end of the world if you don't get "proper value".

 

[BigJim®]

Decent theory... in fact my own dynasty team has been dubbed "paper champs" by leaguemates for years. However, you went way overboard here IMHO. I don't think you got equal value for Rice, Fitz or Calvin and in doing so really did not take advantage of their perceived value at all. What you are right about is those are the type of players who bring an unjustified 'name' premium, and your leaguemates won't hate you for asking the moon for those guys. Many will gladly overpay to roster a guy like that. But I don't think you followed through on your insights at all in your execution. The players you targetted in trade for the most part were not undervalued producers but themselves overvalued "names" who had no proven production yet carry unjustified premium (A.Benn, C.Wells, Stafford, Stewart, F.Jones, Finley, D.Thomas). Those guys are not buy low, or at least you did not buy them low. JMHO but I'd say it is worse to pay premium for unproven "names" that to hold studs who are proven producers but who may not ever produce their perceived value.

 

[ClownDogs]

im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing

If nearly nothing means multiple elite players in your language, then yeah.You did all of this hoping that "a few" of these guys will pan out and reach their potential, and become the "best case scenario" of themselves. Unfortunately, NONE of these guys have the potential that guys you traded away, like Fitz and Calvin, have ALREADY MET, for the most part. A couple of guys, like Stewart, have the chance to equal the production of what you traded away (Rice). But you already had that, and traded it away hoping that you could some time in the future come out even at best. That is not a sound strategy, in any way.

Selling high and buying low is a great "theory" (that is widely used in every dynasty league, although you apparently didn't get that memo until this off-season)....but its horribly applied here. It seems you don't understand the concept fully.

You have mis-managed this team straight into oblivion.

My prediction? A year or two down the road, you quit this league because your "re-build" (which I'd call a "de-build") didn't work and your team isn't very competitive, and you're sick of waiting...you realize you liked being competitive each and every week of the regular and post-season.

And the next owner to come in and take over your team will be told hilarious, yet sad stories about the roster his team USED to boast, before it was blown up entirely, in the wrong way.

The only thing that's ####tier than going all in with a laughably bad strategy in a serious league? Already having a contingency plan in place if it fails: to quit and find a new league. Pathetic.

First...I wouldnt quit...I would just join ANTOTHER dynasty while I was in the pooper in this one...You my friend Clearly didnt read anything I have said.Why is ray rice anymore of a stud than Stewart Spiller Wells or Felix? You may say situation, but, surely not talent alone. Your making judgements on perceived value and what everyone else is saying...good luck with that strategy.

Ray Rice is more of a stud because he's already produced elite numbers, and is young. He's proven he can do it. The only player you acquired in these deals that has come close, and most definitely will again, is Stewart. So of course you'd focus on him. But again, you have to hope for the best case scenario to ever see Stewart even equal Rice's numbers. And how often does the base case scenario actually work out? Now imagine that to even come close to breaking even, half of the guys you traded for would need to fulfill their potential, at least, to rival the production of the sure-fire studs you traded away. That's NOT a good strategy when you had such a solid team.

I currently own Stewart, and recently traded away Wells. Have never been a Spiller or Felix owner. I'm well aware of the talent they possess.

The point is, you didn't do any "buying low" in these trades. Nor did you effectively "sell high" in most of them.

Ok...I am going to say this one more time......................The point I am trying to make is that people get to caught up in rankings and who has the best reputation...Players value in dynasty rankings fluctuate more than they should and people give up on guys too quickly. You saying I didn't successfully buy low or sell high is purely your opinion.There are so many variables in football that a guys situation(and value) can change on a dime. I want you to think about something else. How do you think I got these guys on my team? For the first two years I was all about studs, I thought that was the only way you could win. Well I won with that team and had 4 studs. But you know what? I was 7th in scoring Last year and I thought there were a bunch more teams that were better than me and my 4 studs.So since I already won and am playing with house money, I figured why not try something new. Its pretty stressful banking on 4 guys to dominate every week or else your gonna lose. Not to say I didn't have any other guys that were solid. I lost Dallas Clark early on(lucky to have Cooley).The fact of the matter is that if I went into next season and lost one of my studs, I am fresh out of luck. I love Calvin But who knows if the lions ever become a competent organization. Who knows if Fitz gets a QB? These guys are elite talents but they also can be affected by things they do not have control over.So I guess at this point id rather have faith in a full roster of talented guys who could do something Rather then a few elite stud talents and a bunch of waiver wire guys.One freak injury to Calvin or Fitz and the perceived value of my team takes a much bigger hit than if one of my guys that I have now busts Altogether. Almost seems a bit safer strategy to me. To be honest I wasnt a spiller guy when he got drafted nor was I a Felix guy. I also realize beanie sucked last year. Demaryius is coming off an injury most guys do not come back from and Benn tore his ACL.Crabtree Is prima donna and is in a bad situation.Finley is widely overrated In some peoples opinion and Mike Thomas is short. But I started to realize my opinion doesnt matter and me being to proud to pick up certain guys has just hurt me in the long run. I remember not liking Chris Johnson, Roddy White and Lesean Mccoy and I'm sure there where plenty others who felt the same way, well I was wrong and I'm sure there were plenty others I was wrong about. The one thing I learned from listening to footballguys podcasts is that all these guys are talented and given the right situation, can produce.So, I decided to throw my pride away and stop pretending I knew more than I did...These guys are first 3 round talents ...They all have a shot to produce ...End of story.Calvin has showed that he does not need the Lions to be competent, S.Hill and D.Stanton were his qb's and he produced. And "who knows if fitz gets a QB"? These were the qb's for Ari last year that played: Anderson, Skelton, Max Hall and Rich Bartel. These are Fitz's stats: 90-1137-6tds. When you got QB"s like that tossing the ball and you can have your "worst" year with 90-1137-6, I just prefer to keep that kind of talent. I am not in any way saying you should not deal studs for "projects", to each their own, but when you have a guy with a 90-1137-6 FLOOR, probably should keep that kind of talent.

Good luck on your rebuild, those tend to be the most fun of the leagues i play in.

 

[Go deep]

im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing

If nearly nothing means multiple elite players in your language, then yeah.You did all of this hoping that "a few" of these guys will pan out and reach their potential, and become the "best case scenario" of themselves. Unfortunately, NONE of these guys have the potential that guys you traded away, like Fitz and Calvin, have ALREADY MET, for the most part. A couple of guys, like Stewart, have the chance to equal the production of what you traded away (Rice). But you already had that, and traded it away hoping that you could some time in the future come out even at best. That is not a sound strategy, in any way.

Selling high and buying low is a great "theory" (that is widely used in every dynasty league, although you apparently didn't get that memo until this off-season)....but its horribly applied here. It seems you don't understand the concept fully.

You have mis-managed this team straight into oblivion.

My prediction? A year or two down the road, you quit this league because your "re-build" (which I'd call a "de-build") didn't work and your team isn't very competitive, and you're sick of waiting...you realize you liked being competitive each and every week of the regular and post-season.

And the next owner to come in and take over your team will be told hilarious, yet sad stories about the roster his team USED to boast, before it was blown up entirely, in the wrong way.

The only thing that's ####tier than going all in with a laughably bad strategy in a serious league? Already having a contingency plan in place if it fails: to quit and find a new league. Pathetic.

First...I wouldnt quit...I would just join ANTOTHER dynasty while I was in the pooper in this one...You my friend Clearly didnt read anything I have said.Why is ray rice anymore of a stud than Stewart Spiller Wells or Felix? You may say situation, but, surely not talent alone. Your making judgements on perceived value and what everyone else is saying...good luck with that strategy.

Ray Rice is more of a stud because he's already produced elite numbers, and is young. He's proven he can do it. The only player you acquired in these deals that has come close, and most definitely will again, is Stewart. So of course you'd focus on him. But again, you have to hope for the best case scenario to ever see Stewart even equal Rice's numbers. And how often does the base case scenario actually work out? Now imagine that to even come close to breaking even, half of the guys you traded for would need to fulfill their potential, at least, to rival the production of the sure-fire studs you traded away. That's NOT a good strategy when you had such a solid team.

I currently own Stewart, and recently traded away Wells. Have never been a Spiller or Felix owner. I'm well aware of the talent they possess.

The point is, you didn't do any "buying low" in these trades. Nor did you effectively "sell high" in most of them.

Ok...I am going to say this one more time......................The point I am trying to make is that people get to caught up in rankings and who has the best reputation...Players value in dynasty rankings fluctuate more than they should and people give up on guys too quickly. You saying I didn't successfully buy low or sell high is purely your opinion.There are so many variables in football that a guys situation(and value) can change on a dime. I want you to think about something else. How do you think I got these guys on my team? For the first two years I was all about studs, I thought that was the only way you could win. Well I won with that team and had 4 studs. But you know what? I was 7th in scoring Last year and I thought there were a bunch more teams that were better than me and my 4 studs.So since I already won and am playing with house money, I figured why not try something new. Its pretty stressful banking on 4 guys to dominate every week or else your gonna lose. Not to say I didn't have any other guys that were solid. I lost Dallas Clark early on(lucky to have Cooley).The fact of the matter is that if I went into next season and lost one of my studs, I am fresh out of luck. I love Calvin But who knows if the lions ever become a competent organization. Who knows if Fitz gets a QB? These guys are elite talents but they also can be affected by things they do not have control over.So I guess at this point id rather have faith in a full roster of talented guys who could do something Rather then a few elite stud talents and a bunch of waiver wire guys.One freak injury to Calvin or Fitz and the perceived value of my team takes a much bigger hit than if one of my guys that I have now busts Altogether. Almost seems a bit safer strategy to me. To be honest I wasnt a spiller guy when he got drafted nor was I a Felix guy. I also realize beanie sucked last year. Demaryius is coming off an injury most guys do not come back from and Benn tore his ACL.Crabtree Is prima donna and is in a bad situation.Finley is widely overrated In some peoples opinion and Mike Thomas is short. But I started to realize my opinion doesnt matter and me being to proud to pick up certain guys has just hurt me in the long run. I remember not liking Chris Johnson, Roddy White and Lesean Mccoy and I'm sure there where plenty others who felt the same way, well I was wrong and I'm sure there were plenty others I was wrong about. The one thing I learned from listening to footballguys podcasts is that all these guys are talented and given the right situation, can produce.So, I decided to throw my pride away and stop pretending I knew more than I did...These guys are first 3 round talents ...They all have a shot to produce ...End of story.Calvin has showed that he does not need the Lions to be competent, S.Hill and D.Stanton were his qb's and he produced. And "who knows if fitz gets a QB"? These were the qb's for Ari last year that played: Anderson, Skelton, Max Hall and Rich Bartel. These are Fitz's stats: 90-1137-6tds. When you got QB"s like that tossing the ball and you can have your "worst" year with 90-1137-6, I just prefer to keep that kind of talent. I am not in any way saying you should not deal studs for "projects", to each their own, but when you have a guy with a 90-1137-6 FLOOR, probably should keep that kind of talent.

Good luck on your rebuild, those tend to be the most fun of the leagues i play in.

Its probably not crazy to think Finley could match or better those numbers from the TE position, and that Mike Thomas could put up numbers at least close to that. Without using names, that trade would look fair, if not an advantage to the Finley side. Just goes to show how much more value he could have got with Fitzgeralds name power. Same goes for most the trades he made. Its the way people overvalue players like Fitz and Rice that make his trades seem lopsided.

 

[The Berry Man]

Its probably not crazy to think Finley could match or better those numbers from the TE position, and that Mike Thomas could put up numbers at least close to that. Without using names, that trade would look fair, if not an advantage to the Finley side. Just goes to show how much more value he could have got with Fitzgeralds name power. Same goes for most the trades he made. Its the way people overvalue players like Fitz and Rice that make his trades seem lopsided.

Right - projecting a tight end who has never put up big numbers to out-produce arguably the most talented wide receiver in the league who has put up elite numbers = Fitzgerald being the overvalued one.

 

[ClownDogs]

im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing

If nearly nothing means multiple elite players in your language, then yeah.You did all of this hoping that "a few" of these guys will pan out and reach their potential, and become the "best case scenario" of themselves. Unfortunately, NONE of these guys have the potential that guys you traded away, like Fitz and Calvin, have ALREADY MET, for the most part. A couple of guys, like Stewart, have the chance to equal the production of what you traded away (Rice). But you already had that, and traded it away hoping that you could some time in the future come out even at best. That is not a sound strategy, in any way.

Selling high and buying low is a great "theory" (that is widely used in every dynasty league, although you apparently didn't get that memo until this off-season)....but its horribly applied here. It seems you don't understand the concept fully.

You have mis-managed this team straight into oblivion.

My prediction? A year or two down the road, you quit this league because your "re-build" (which I'd call a "de-build") didn't work and your team isn't very competitive, and you're sick of waiting...you realize you liked being competitive each and every week of the regular and post-season.

And the next owner to come in and take over your team will be told hilarious, yet sad stories about the roster his team USED to boast, before it was blown up entirely, in the wrong way.

The only thing that's ####tier than going all in with a laughably bad strategy in a serious league? Already having a contingency plan in place if it fails: to quit and find a new league. Pathetic.

First...I wouldnt quit...I would just join ANTOTHER dynasty while I was in the pooper in this one...You my friend Clearly didnt read anything I have said.Why is ray rice anymore of a stud than Stewart Spiller Wells or Felix? You may say situation, but, surely not talent alone. Your making judgements on perceived value and what everyone else is saying...good luck with that strategy.

Ray Rice is more of a stud because he's already produced elite numbers, and is young. He's proven he can do it. The only player you acquired in these deals that has come close, and most definitely will again, is Stewart. So of course you'd focus on him. But again, you have to hope for the best case scenario to ever see Stewart even equal Rice's numbers. And how often does the base case scenario actually work out? Now imagine that to even come close to breaking even, half of the guys you traded for would need to fulfill their potential, at least, to rival the production of the sure-fire studs you traded away. That's NOT a good strategy when you had such a solid team.

I currently own Stewart, and recently traded away Wells. Have never been a Spiller or Felix owner. I'm well aware of the talent they possess.

The point is, you didn't do any "buying low" in these trades. Nor did you effectively "sell high" in most of them.

Ok...I am going to say this one more time......................The point I am trying to make is that people get to caught up in rankings and who has the best reputation...Players value in dynasty rankings fluctuate more than they should and people give up on guys too quickly. You saying I didn't successfully buy low or sell high is purely your opinion.There are so many variables in football that a guys situation(and value) can change on a dime. I want you to think about something else. How do you think I got these guys on my team? For the first two years I was all about studs, I thought that was the only way you could win. Well I won with that team and had 4 studs. But you know what? I was 7th in scoring Last year and I thought there were a bunch more teams that were better than me and my 4 studs.So since I already won and am playing with house money, I figured why not try something new. Its pretty stressful banking on 4 guys to dominate every week or else your gonna lose. Not to say I didn't have any other guys that were solid. I lost Dallas Clark early on(lucky to have Cooley).The fact of the matter is that if I went into next season and lost one of my studs, I am fresh out of luck. I love Calvin But who knows if the lions ever become a competent organization. Who knows if Fitz gets a QB? These guys are elite talents but they also can be affected by things they do not have control over.So I guess at this point id rather have faith in a full roster of talented guys who could do something Rather then a few elite stud talents and a bunch of waiver wire guys.One freak injury to Calvin or Fitz and the perceived value of my team takes a much bigger hit than if one of my guys that I have now busts Altogether. Almost seems a bit safer strategy to me. To be honest I wasnt a spiller guy when he got drafted nor was I a Felix guy. I also realize beanie sucked last year. Demaryius is coming off an injury most guys do not come back from and Benn tore his ACL.Crabtree Is prima donna and is in a bad situation.Finley is widely overrated In some peoples opinion and Mike Thomas is short. But I started to realize my opinion doesnt matter and me being to proud to pick up certain guys has just hurt me in the long run. I remember not liking Chris Johnson, Roddy White and Lesean Mccoy and I'm sure there where plenty others who felt the same way, well I was wrong and I'm sure there were plenty others I was wrong about. The one thing I learned from listening to footballguys podcasts is that all these guys are talented and given the right situation, can produce.So, I decided to throw my pride away and stop pretending I knew more than I did...These guys are first 3 round talents ...They all have a shot to produce ...End of story.Calvin has showed that he does not need the Lions to be competent, S.Hill and D.Stanton were his qb's and he produced. And "who knows if fitz gets a QB"? These were the qb's for Ari last year that played: Anderson, Skelton, Max Hall and Rich Bartel. These are Fitz's stats: 90-1137-6tds. When you got QB"s like that tossing the ball and you can have your "worst" year with 90-1137-6, I just prefer to keep that kind of talent. I am not in any way saying you should not deal studs for "projects", to each their own, but when you have a guy with a 90-1137-6 FLOOR, probably should keep that kind of talent.

Good luck on your rebuild, those tend to be the most fun of the leagues i play in.

Its probably not crazy to think Finley could match or better those numbers from the TE position, and that Mike Thomas could put up numbers at least close to that. Without using names, that trade would look fair, if not an advantage to the Finley side. Just goes to show how much more value he could have got with Fitzgeralds name power. Same goes for most the trades he made. Its the way people overvalue players like Fitz and Rice that make his trades seem lopsided.

I am having problems with him going from Fitz/Calvin to: Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

LaFell, Brandon CAR WR

Shipley, Jordan CIN WR

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

Thomas, Mike JAC WR

While i agree most have upside, i am personally not a believer that any will be in the same tier as cavlin/fitz, ever.

And your comment also shows Finley's gross over value imho. I like him, but just not sure i see him doing anything close to fitz for anywhere near as long.