The Buy 'high round busts' low theory (1 Viewer)

[Go deep]

Its probably not crazy to think Finley could match or better those numbers from the TE position, and that Mike Thomas could put up numbers at least close to that. Without using names, that trade would look fair, if not an advantage to the Finley side. Just goes to show how much more value he could have got with Fitzgeralds name power. Same goes for most the trades he made. Its the way people overvalue players like Fitz and Rice that make his trades seem lopsided.

Right - projecting a tight end who has never put up big numbers to out-produce arguably the most talented wide receiver in the league who has put up elite numbers = Fitzgerald being the overvalued one. Finley has started 16 games in the last two seasons, here are his numbers in those 16 games: 77 rec 1075yards 6TD's

The reason people overvalue players is because they put too much value in past numbers. Thats not to suggest that past numbers should be ignored, but what a player is going to do is much more important than what a player has done.

 

[Go deep]

im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing

If nearly nothing means multiple elite players in your language, then yeah.You did all of this hoping that "a few" of these guys will pan out and reach their potential, and become the "best case scenario" of themselves. Unfortunately, NONE of these guys have the potential that guys you traded away, like Fitz and Calvin, have ALREADY MET, for the most part. A couple of guys, like Stewart, have the chance to equal the production of what you traded away (Rice). But you already had that, and traded it away hoping that you could some time in the future come out even at best. That is not a sound strategy, in any way.

Selling high and buying low is a great "theory" (that is widely used in every dynasty league, although you apparently didn't get that memo until this off-season)....but its horribly applied here. It seems you don't understand the concept fully.

You have mis-managed this team straight into oblivion.

My prediction? A year or two down the road, you quit this league because your "re-build" (which I'd call a "de-build") didn't work and your team isn't very competitive, and you're sick of waiting...you realize you liked being competitive each and every week of the regular and post-season.

And the next owner to come in and take over your team will be told hilarious, yet sad stories about the roster his team USED to boast, before it was blown up entirely, in the wrong way.

The only thing that's ####tier than going all in with a laughably bad strategy in a serious league? Already having a contingency plan in place if it fails: to quit and find a new league. Pathetic.

First...I wouldnt quit...I would just join ANTOTHER dynasty while I was in the pooper in this one...You my friend Clearly didnt read anything I have said.Why is ray rice anymore of a stud than Stewart Spiller Wells or Felix? You may say situation, but, surely not talent alone. Your making judgements on perceived value and what everyone else is saying...good luck with that strategy.

Ray Rice is more of a stud because he's already produced elite numbers, and is young. He's proven he can do it. The only player you acquired in these deals that has come close, and most definitely will again, is Stewart. So of course you'd focus on him. But again, you have to hope for the best case scenario to ever see Stewart even equal Rice's numbers. And how often does the base case scenario actually work out? Now imagine that to even come close to breaking even, half of the guys you traded for would need to fulfill their potential, at least, to rival the production of the sure-fire studs you traded away. That's NOT a good strategy when you had such a solid team.

I currently own Stewart, and recently traded away Wells. Have never been a Spiller or Felix owner. I'm well aware of the talent they possess.

The point is, you didn't do any "buying low" in these trades. Nor did you effectively "sell high" in most of them.

Ok...I am going to say this one more time......................The point I am trying to make is that people get to caught up in rankings and who has the best reputation...Players value in dynasty rankings fluctuate more than they should and people give up on guys too quickly. You saying I didn't successfully buy low or sell high is purely your opinion.There are so many variables in football that a guys situation(and value) can change on a dime. I want you to think about something else. How do you think I got these guys on my team? For the first two years I was all about studs, I thought that was the only way you could win. Well I won with that team and had 4 studs. But you know what? I was 7th in scoring Last year and I thought there were a bunch more teams that were better than me and my 4 studs.So since I already won and am playing with house money, I figured why not try something new. Its pretty stressful banking on 4 guys to dominate every week or else your gonna lose. Not to say I didn't have any other guys that were solid. I lost Dallas Clark early on(lucky to have Cooley).The fact of the matter is that if I went into next season and lost one of my studs, I am fresh out of luck. I love Calvin But who knows if the lions ever become a competent organization. Who knows if Fitz gets a QB? These guys are elite talents but they also can be affected by things they do not have control over.So I guess at this point id rather have faith in a full roster of talented guys who could do something Rather then a few elite stud talents and a bunch of waiver wire guys.One freak injury to Calvin or Fitz and the perceived value of my team takes a much bigger hit than if one of my guys that I have now busts Altogether. Almost seems a bit safer strategy to me. To be honest I wasnt a spiller guy when he got drafted nor was I a Felix guy. I also realize beanie sucked last year. Demaryius is coming off an injury most guys do not come back from and Benn tore his ACL.Crabtree Is prima donna and is in a bad situation.Finley is widely overrated In some peoples opinion and Mike Thomas is short. But I started to realize my opinion doesnt matter and me being to proud to pick up certain guys has just hurt me in the long run. I remember not liking Chris Johnson, Roddy White and Lesean Mccoy and I'm sure there where plenty others who felt the same way, well I was wrong and I'm sure there were plenty others I was wrong about. The one thing I learned from listening to footballguys podcasts is that all these guys are talented and given the right situation, can produce.So, I decided to throw my pride away and stop pretending I knew more than I did...These guys are first 3 round talents ...They all have a shot to produce ...End of story.Calvin has showed that he does not need the Lions to be competent, S.Hill and D.Stanton were his qb's and he produced. And "who knows if fitz gets a QB"? These were the qb's for Ari last year that played: Anderson, Skelton, Max Hall and Rich Bartel. These are Fitz's stats: 90-1137-6tds. When you got QB"s like that tossing the ball and you can have your "worst" year with 90-1137-6, I just prefer to keep that kind of talent. I am not in any way saying you should not deal studs for "projects", to each their own, but when you have a guy with a 90-1137-6 FLOOR, probably should keep that kind of talent.

Good luck on your rebuild, those tend to be the most fun of the leagues i play in.

Its probably not crazy to think Finley could match or better those numbers from the TE position, and that Mike Thomas could put up numbers at least close to that. Without using names, that trade would look fair, if not an advantage to the Finley side. Just goes to show how much more value he could have got with Fitzgeralds name power. Same goes for most the trades he made. Its the way people overvalue players like Fitz and Rice that make his trades seem lopsided.

I am having problems with him going from Fitz/Calvin to: Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

LaFell, Brandon CAR WR

Shipley, Jordan CIN WR

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

Thomas, Mike JAC WR

While i agree most have upside, i am personally not a believer that any will be in the same tier as cavlin/fitz, ever.

And your comment also shows Finley's gross over value imho. I like him, but just not sure i see him doing anything close to fitz for anywhere near as long.

I agree 100% about his current WR corps, but he does have a much deeoper RB stable. Plus if one of Green or Jluio Jones slips to the 1.4 he could have a guy woth Calvin/Fitz potential.

I know it seems that projecting Finley for 1100 yards and 6 TD's is crazy since he has never put up a season like that, but i think he is very capable of it if he stays healthy. Honestly, unless the Cards add a veteran QB, i would be willing to bet that Finley outscores Fitz in 2011. Jason Witten outscored Fitz last year, would this trade be any less crazy if you replaced Finely with Witten?

 

[ClownDogs]

im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing

If nearly nothing means multiple elite players in your language, then yeah.You did all of this hoping that "a few" of these guys will pan out and reach their potential, and become the "best case scenario" of themselves. Unfortunately, NONE of these guys have the potential that guys you traded away, like Fitz and Calvin, have ALREADY MET, for the most part. A couple of guys, like Stewart, have the chance to equal the production of what you traded away (Rice). But you already had that, and traded it away hoping that you could some time in the future come out even at best. That is not a sound strategy, in any way.

Selling high and buying low is a great "theory" (that is widely used in every dynasty league, although you apparently didn't get that memo until this off-season)....but its horribly applied here. It seems you don't understand the concept fully.

You have mis-managed this team straight into oblivion.

My prediction? A year or two down the road, you quit this league because your "re-build" (which I'd call a "de-build") didn't work and your team isn't very competitive, and you're sick of waiting...you realize you liked being competitive each and every week of the regular and post-season.

And the next owner to come in and take over your team will be told hilarious, yet sad stories about the roster his team USED to boast, before it was blown up entirely, in the wrong way.

The only thing that's ####tier than going all in with a laughably bad strategy in a serious league? Already having a contingency plan in place if it fails: to quit and find a new league. Pathetic.

First...I wouldnt quit...I would just join ANTOTHER dynasty while I was in the pooper in this one...You my friend Clearly didnt read anything I have said.Why is ray rice anymore of a stud than Stewart Spiller Wells or Felix? You may say situation, but, surely not talent alone. Your making judgements on perceived value and what everyone else is saying...good luck with that strategy.

Ray Rice is more of a stud because he's already produced elite numbers, and is young. He's proven he can do it. The only player you acquired in these deals that has come close, and most definitely will again, is Stewart. So of course you'd focus on him. But again, you have to hope for the best case scenario to ever see Stewart even equal Rice's numbers. And how often does the base case scenario actually work out? Now imagine that to even come close to breaking even, half of the guys you traded for would need to fulfill their potential, at least, to rival the production of the sure-fire studs you traded away. That's NOT a good strategy when you had such a solid team.

I currently own Stewart, and recently traded away Wells. Have never been a Spiller or Felix owner. I'm well aware of the talent they possess.

The point is, you didn't do any "buying low" in these trades. Nor did you effectively "sell high" in most of them.

Ok...I am going to say this one more time......................The point I am trying to make is that people get to caught up in rankings and who has the best reputation...Players value in dynasty rankings fluctuate more than they should and people give up on guys too quickly. You saying I didn't successfully buy low or sell high is purely your opinion.There are so many variables in football that a guys situation(and value) can change on a dime. I want you to think about something else. How do you think I got these guys on my team? For the first two years I was all about studs, I thought that was the only way you could win. Well I won with that team and had 4 studs. But you know what? I was 7th in scoring Last year and I thought there were a bunch more teams that were better than me and my 4 studs.So since I already won and am playing with house money, I figured why not try something new. Its pretty stressful banking on 4 guys to dominate every week or else your gonna lose. Not to say I didn't have any other guys that were solid. I lost Dallas Clark early on(lucky to have Cooley).The fact of the matter is that if I went into next season and lost one of my studs, I am fresh out of luck. I love Calvin But who knows if the lions ever become a competent organization. Who knows if Fitz gets a QB? These guys are elite talents but they also can be affected by things they do not have control over.So I guess at this point id rather have faith in a full roster of talented guys who could do something Rather then a few elite stud talents and a bunch of waiver wire guys.One freak injury to Calvin or Fitz and the perceived value of my team takes a much bigger hit than if one of my guys that I have now busts Altogether. Almost seems a bit safer strategy to me. To be honest I wasnt a spiller guy when he got drafted nor was I a Felix guy. I also realize beanie sucked last year. Demaryius is coming off an injury most guys do not come back from and Benn tore his ACL.Crabtree Is prima donna and is in a bad situation.Finley is widely overrated In some peoples opinion and Mike Thomas is short. But I started to realize my opinion doesnt matter and me being to proud to pick up certain guys has just hurt me in the long run. I remember not liking Chris Johnson, Roddy White and Lesean Mccoy and I'm sure there where plenty others who felt the same way, well I was wrong and I'm sure there were plenty others I was wrong about. The one thing I learned from listening to footballguys podcasts is that all these guys are talented and given the right situation, can produce.So, I decided to throw my pride away and stop pretending I knew more than I did...These guys are first 3 round talents ...They all have a shot to produce ...End of story.

Calvin has showed that he does not need the Lions to be competent, S.Hill and D.Stanton were his qb's and he produced. And "who knows if fitz gets a QB"? These were the qb's for Ari last year that played: Anderson, Skelton, Max Hall and Rich Bartel. These are Fitz's stats: 90-1137-6tds. When you got QB"s like that tossing the ball and you can have your "worst" year with 90-1137-6, I just prefer to keep that kind of talent. I am not in any way saying you should not deal studs for "projects", to each their own, but when you have a guy with a 90-1137-6 FLOOR, probably should keep that kind of talent.

Good luck on your rebuild, those tend to be the most fun of the leagues i play in.

Its probably not crazy to think Finley could match or better those numbers from the TE position, and that Mike Thomas could put up numbers at least close to that. Without using names, that trade would look fair, if not an advantage to the Finley side. Just goes to show how much more value he could have got with Fitzgeralds name power. Same goes for most the trades he made. Its the way people overvalue players like Fitz and Rice that make his trades seem lopsided.

I am having problems with him going from Fitz/Calvin to: Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

LaFell, Brandon CAR WR

Shipley, Jordan CIN WR

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

Thomas, Mike JAC WR

While i agree most have upside, i am personally not a believer that any will be in the same tier as cavlin/fitz, ever.

And your comment also shows Finley's gross over value imho. I like him, but just not sure i see him doing anything close to fitz for anywhere near as long.

I agree 100% about his current WR corps, but he does have a much deeoper RB stable. Plus if one of Green or Jluio Jones slips to the 1.4 he could have a guy woth Calvin/Fitz potential.

I know it seems that projecting Finley for 1100 yards and 6 TD's is crazy since he has never put up a season like that, but i think he is very capable of it if he stays healthy. Honestly, unless the Cards add a veteran QB, i would be willing to bet that Finley outscores Fitz in 2011. Jason Witten outscored Fitz last year, would this trade be any less crazy if you replaced Finely with Witten?

Doubt Julio/Green slip to 1.04 in any league that is PPR. And "deeper" rb stable i guess, but just cause you add names to make it "deeper" doesnt mean it is anywhere near the previous RB's. I am not a beanie/felix fan, soured a little on spiller, just not sure i see him as a future RB1 stud and JStew could be top notch, but injuries/full load concern me still with him. And finely capable of 1100/6tds? sure, but when the player you gave up does that AT A MINIMUM every year, why gamble on finleys ceiling(or near ceiling)?

 

[Go deep]

im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing

If nearly nothing means multiple elite players in your language, then yeah.You did all of this hoping that "a few" of these guys will pan out and reach their potential, and become the "best case scenario" of themselves. Unfortunately, NONE of these guys have the potential that guys you traded away, like Fitz and Calvin, have ALREADY MET, for the most part. A couple of guys, like Stewart, have the chance to equal the production of what you traded away (Rice). But you already had that, and traded it away hoping that you could some time in the future come out even at best. That is not a sound strategy, in any way.

Selling high and buying low is a great "theory" (that is widely used in every dynasty league, although you apparently didn't get that memo until this off-season)....but its horribly applied here. It seems you don't understand the concept fully.

You have mis-managed this team straight into oblivion.

My prediction? A year or two down the road, you quit this league because your "re-build" (which I'd call a "de-build") didn't work and your team isn't very competitive, and you're sick of waiting...you realize you liked being competitive each and every week of the regular and post-season.

And the next owner to come in and take over your team will be told hilarious, yet sad stories about the roster his team USED to boast, before it was blown up entirely, in the wrong way.

The only thing that's ####tier than going all in with a laughably bad strategy in a serious league? Already having a contingency plan in place if it fails: to quit and find a new league. Pathetic.

First...I wouldnt quit...I would just join ANTOTHER dynasty while I was in the pooper in this one...You my friend Clearly didnt read anything I have said.Why is ray rice anymore of a stud than Stewart Spiller Wells or Felix? You may say situation, but, surely not talent alone. Your making judgements on perceived value and what everyone else is saying...good luck with that strategy.

Ray Rice is more of a stud because he's already produced elite numbers, and is young. He's proven he can do it. The only player you acquired in these deals that has come close, and most definitely will again, is Stewart. So of course you'd focus on him. But again, you have to hope for the best case scenario to ever see Stewart even equal Rice's numbers. And how often does the base case scenario actually work out? Now imagine that to even come close to breaking even, half of the guys you traded for would need to fulfill their potential, at least, to rival the production of the sure-fire studs you traded away. That's NOT a good strategy when you had such a solid team.

I currently own Stewart, and recently traded away Wells. Have never been a Spiller or Felix owner. I'm well aware of the talent they possess.

The point is, you didn't do any "buying low" in these trades. Nor did you effectively "sell high" in most of them.

Ok...I am going to say this one more time......................The point I am trying to make is that people get to caught up in rankings and who has the best reputation...Players value in dynasty rankings fluctuate more than they should and people give up on guys too quickly. You saying I didn't successfully buy low or sell high is purely your opinion.There are so many variables in football that a guys situation(and value) can change on a dime. I want you to think about something else. How do you think I got these guys on my team? For the first two years I was all about studs, I thought that was the only way you could win. Well I won with that team and had 4 studs. But you know what? I was 7th in scoring Last year and I thought there were a bunch more teams that were better than me and my 4 studs.So since I already won and am playing with house money, I figured why not try something new. Its pretty stressful banking on 4 guys to dominate every week or else your gonna lose. Not to say I didn't have any other guys that were solid. I lost Dallas Clark early on(lucky to have Cooley).The fact of the matter is that if I went into next season and lost one of my studs, I am fresh out of luck. I love Calvin But who knows if the lions ever become a competent organization. Who knows if Fitz gets a QB? These guys are elite talents but they also can be affected by things they do not have control over.So I guess at this point id rather have faith in a full roster of talented guys who could do something Rather then a few elite stud talents and a bunch of waiver wire guys.One freak injury to Calvin or Fitz and the perceived value of my team takes a much bigger hit than if one of my guys that I have now busts Altogether. Almost seems a bit safer strategy to me. To be honest I wasnt a spiller guy when he got drafted nor was I a Felix guy. I also realize beanie sucked last year. Demaryius is coming off an injury most guys do not come back from and Benn tore his ACL.Crabtree Is prima donna and is in a bad situation.Finley is widely overrated In some peoples opinion and Mike Thomas is short. But I started to realize my opinion doesnt matter and me being to proud to pick up certain guys has just hurt me in the long run. I remember not liking Chris Johnson, Roddy White and Lesean Mccoy and I'm sure there where plenty others who felt the same way, well I was wrong and I'm sure there were plenty others I was wrong about. The one thing I learned from listening to footballguys podcasts is that all these guys are talented and given the right situation, can produce.So, I decided to throw my pride away and stop pretending I knew more than I did...These guys are first 3 round talents ...They all have a shot to produce ...End of story.

Calvin has showed that he does not need the Lions to be competent, S.Hill and D.Stanton were his qb's and he produced. And "who knows if fitz gets a QB"? These were the qb's for Ari last year that played: Anderson, Skelton, Max Hall and Rich Bartel. These are Fitz's stats: 90-1137-6tds. When you got QB"s like that tossing the ball and you can have your "worst" year with 90-1137-6, I just prefer to keep that kind of talent. I am not in any way saying you should not deal studs for "projects", to each their own, but when you have a guy with a 90-1137-6 FLOOR, probably should keep that kind of talent.

Good luck on your rebuild, those tend to be the most fun of the leagues i play in.

Its probably not crazy to think Finley could match or better those numbers from the TE position, and that Mike Thomas could put up numbers at least close to that. Without using names, that trade would look fair, if not an advantage to the Finley side. Just goes to show how much more value he could have got with Fitzgeralds name power. Same goes for most the trades he made. Its the way people overvalue players like Fitz and Rice that make his trades seem lopsided.

I am having problems with him going from Fitz/Calvin to: Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

LaFell, Brandon CAR WR

Shipley, Jordan CIN WR

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

Thomas, Mike JAC WR

While i agree most have upside, i am personally not a believer that any will be in the same tier as cavlin/fitz, ever.

And your comment also shows Finley's gross over value imho. I like him, but just not sure i see him doing anything close to fitz for anywhere near as long.

I agree 100% about his current WR corps, but he does have a much deeoper RB stable. Plus if one of Green or Jluio Jones slips to the 1.4 he could have a guy woth Calvin/Fitz potential.

I know it seems that projecting Finley for 1100 yards and 6 TD's is crazy since he has never put up a season like that, but i think he is very capable of it if he stays healthy. Honestly, unless the Cards add a veteran QB, i would be willing to bet that Finley outscores Fitz in 2011. Jason Witten outscored Fitz last year, would this trade be any less crazy if you replaced Finely with Witten?

Doubt Julio/Green slip to 1.04 in any league that is PPR. And "deeper" rb stable i guess, but just cause you add names to make it "deeper" doesnt mean it is anywhere near the previous RB's. I am not a beanie/felix fan, soured a little on spiller, just not sure i see him as a future RB1 stud and JStew could be top notch, but injuries/full load concern me still with him. And finely capable of 1100/6tds? sure, but when the player you gave up does that AT A MINIMUM every year, why gamble on finleys ceiling(or near ceiling)?

People keep calling Fitzs season last year as an absolute low, and that might be the case, but until they get a better QB, his ceiling isnt much higher than that. I also think Finley is capable of 1200/12, and when you take into account thats from the TE position, thats as good as a WR who puts up 1400/14, which is likely Fitz upside with a good QB. I know that Finley may never reach his potential, bit its just as likely Fitz spends the last fews years of his prime in a terrible Cardinals offense. Again, i would have liked to have gotten more for Fitz, but thats only because i feel like i could with his name power.

 

[Jedimaster21]

I like the buy low theory. However, you can always buy players low without trading away your studs. According to your rationale about perceived value, I'm sure you could have found some players fairly cheap that have the potential to produce. You would have been better off keeping your core of producers while applying your theory to the other positions.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I like the buy low theory. However, you can always buy players low without trading away your studs. According to your rationale about perceived value, I'm sure you could have found some players fairly cheap that have the potential to produce. You would have been better off keeping your core of producers while applying your theory to the other positions.

I agree with this and with most of the feedback I've gotten.Probably would have been better off keeping Fitz or Calvin...but I guess it is what it is at this point.Thanks for the feedback guys.Still think my team has a shot to make the playoffs. As proven to me last year...you dont need the best team to win

 

[loose circuits]

I don't think you can build a team with this type of strategy. Key is having at least a few nucleus players and building depth around them. I used to overvalue the 'upgrade' but learned the hard way by trading away guys you need fringe players cause they have decent odds of rising in value. I think the best approach is a mix of both

 

[Go deep]

I don't think you can build a team with this type of strategy. Key is having at least a few nucleus players and building depth around them. I used to overvalue the 'upgrade' but learned the hard way by trading away guys you need fringe players cause they have decent odds of rising in value. I think the best approach is a mix of both

Agreed. You need to take risks if you want to build a dominate dynasty team, but there is a fine line.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

With 21 man rosters, having solid depth top to bottom can be a negative. At what point do you drop LaFell for a hot WR? Each week will test your commitment to guys like LaFell and Thomas and you'll usually wish you had dropped them a month earlier.

Truer words have never been spoken. My first few years in a dynasty I was married to guys on my bench--my projects. After being burned a couple of years holding them and not jumping on the next hot player (Willie Parker and TJ Housh come to mind as players I passed on early), I changed my philosophy. Now, if my roster gets too "deep" I will trade a few players away to try to improve a spot--even if it is slight overpay. I like to have 2-3 spots at the end of my 25 man roster to be able to play the add/drop game so I don't miss out on the next big time guy. It's worked out well with 4 straight playoff appearances and a title. Guys like Blount, Foster, Grant, Colston, Finley have landed on that roster the last few years. And I'm a happier owner.

 

[az_prof]

Not to pile on, but yeah, you may have made a very bad turn. You did have a good core and only needed to add some depth through FA and draft--instead, you are in full bore rebuild mode and now need several of these players to become studs just to get back to where you were. At a minimum, if you are going that route you should have ended up with more 1.1 1.2. 1.3 types of rookie picks.

The key to Buy Low is not to sell Low and hope that you bought enough lottery tickets that one of them will be the jackpot. In that case, you are giving away a WINNING lottery ticket and HOPING to win one in return. How does this help?

Buy Low is a good idea--trading SJAX for some young players or picks--would have been good. But trading young studs like Rice and Calvin for a bunch of prospects--is not buying low--it is selling low. If you really needed a stud TE, then I guess trading Larry Fitzgerald for the top TE prospect might be ok--although I would have wanted a 1.2/1.3 type of pick too--or else a better young WR than Mike Thomas.

You tried to do TOO much when you had a good core and only needed to add a couple of supporting players. One of the biggest mistakes I see dynasty owners doing is giving up too soon on good players. Selling good players just before they get old, or selling players that you think have topped out in value is fine, but selling young studs is a No NO. Don't do it. Ever.

 

[domvin]

I like the buy low theory. However, you can always buy players low without trading away your studs. According to your rationale about perceived value, I'm sure you could have found some players fairly cheap that have the potential to produce. You would have been better off keeping your core of producers while applying your theory to the other positions.

I agree with this and with most of the feedback I've gotten.Probably would have been better off keeping Fitz or Calvin...but I guess it is what it is at this point.Thanks for the feedback guys.Still think my team has a shot to make the playoffs. As proven to me last year...you dont need the best team to win Well, good luck here bro. Hope some of those guys have career seasons for you. It's a bold move, and crazier things have happened

 

[Go deep]

Ok...I am going to say this one more time......................The point I am trying to make is that people get to caught up in rankings and who has the best reputation...Players value in dynasty rankings fluctuate more than they should and people give up on guys too quickly. You saying I didn't successfully buy low or sell high is purely your opinion.There are so many variables in football that a guys situation(and value) can change on a dime. I want you to think about something else. How do you think I got these guys on my team? For the first two years I was all about studs, I thought that was the only way you could win. Well I won with that team and had 4 studs. But you know what? I was 7th in scoring Last year and I thought there were a bunch more teams that were better than me and my 4 studs.So since I already won and am playing with house money, I figured why not try something new. Its pretty stressful banking on 4 guys to dominate every week or else your gonna lose. Not to say I didn't have any other guys that were solid. I lost Dallas Clark early on(lucky to have Cooley).The fact of the matter is that if I went into next season and lost one of my studs, I am fresh out of luck. I love Calvin But who knows if the lions ever become a competent organization. Who knows if Fitz gets a QB? These guys are elite talents but they also can be affected by things they do not have control over.So I guess at this point id rather have faith in a full roster of talented guys who could do something Rather then a few elite stud talents and a bunch of waiver wire guys.One freak injury to Calvin or Fitz and the perceived value of my team takes a much bigger hit than if one of my guys that I have now busts Altogether. Almost seems a bit safer strategy to me. To be honest I wasnt a spiller guy when he got drafted nor was I a Felix guy. I also realize beanie sucked last year. Demaryius is coming off an injury most guys do not come back from and Benn tore his ACL.Crabtree Is prima donna and is in a bad situation.Finley is widely overrated In some peoples opinion and Mike Thomas is short. But I started to realize my opinion doesnt matter and me being to proud to pick up certain guys has just hurt me in the long run. I remember not liking Chris Johnson, Roddy White and Lesean Mccoy and I'm sure there where plenty others who felt the same way, well I was wrong and I'm sure there were plenty others I was wrong about. The one thing I learned from listening to footballguys podcasts is that all these guys are talented and given the right situation, can produce.So, I decided to throw my pride away and stop pretending I knew more than I did...These guys are first 3 round talents ...They all have a shot to produce ...End of story.

Doesn't change anything. Everyone knows what you were trying to do. What everyone saying is that you failed. You didn't sell high, you sold low. You didn't buy low, you bought hi. Most of those trades are terrible. Besides, selling high on a specific player is much different than attempting to sell high on all your studs just because they're studs. That's not what selling high is.

I actually dont think any of the trades were "terrible". I probabaly wouldnt have done most of them, but the Calvin one seems to hurt more than the others. I do like Wells though, and getting 2 of Ingram, Green, Williams, Jones and Leshoure, plus Big Ben and Gresham isnt too bad. I would probably prefer Fitz to Finley, but the two are pretty close in value, so that trade wasnt terrible.I actually really like the Rice trade. In non-ppr, i have Stewart and Rice as close to even as it gets, so he gets Jones for nothing.Best for Spiller and a first isnt too bad either.I think he got OK value here, i just dont think he sold high or bought low.I actually just noticed this league only has 21 man rosters. My leagues have very deep rosters, so i always assume everyone else does. Considering the small rosters, these trades are a litle more lopsided than i mentioned above. Stud player are even more valauble in league with smaller rosters, considering its alot easier to get depth through waivers. I still dont think these trades are as horrible as some are saying, but they are a little worse than what i orignally thought.*I would still trade Rice for Stewart and Felix

 

[_lurker_]

eek!

In a 16-team dynasty, I traded all my depth for upgrades:

Peyton Manning

Gore

MJD

Roddy White

DeSean Jackson

Brandon Lloyd

Witten

Winslow

I'll roll the injury dice and if it comes up craps, then I'll just have to hope that Danario, Seyi, Deji, or Rashad Jennings can step up.

 

[Go deep]

eek!In a 16-team dynasty, I traded all my depth for upgradeseyton ManningGoreMJDRoddy WhiteDeSean JacksonBrandon LloydWittenWinslowI'll roll the injury dice and if it comes up craps, then I'll just have to hope that Danario, Seyi, Deji, or Rashad Jennings can step up.

Thats a great lineup in a 16 team league, even a 12 team league. I would like to see some of the trades you made though, it looks like you got older with your trades, something i ALWAYS try to avoid.

 

[_lurker_]

eek!In a 16-team dynasty, I traded all my depth for upgradeseyton ManningGoreMJDRoddy WhiteDeSean JacksonBrandon LloydWittenWinslowI'll roll the injury dice and if it comes up craps, then I'll just have to hope that Danario, Seyi, Deji, or Rashad Jennings can step up.

Thats a great lineup in a 16 team league, even a 12 team league. I would like to see some of the trades you made though, it looks like you got older with your trades, something i ALWAYS try to avoid.I made 35 trades last year combining low picks and low players for incremental improvements, rinse-and-repeat, but some highlights:I forgot how I got 2010 1.12, but traded it for Maclin, then some months later, paired Maclin + 2011 1.02 for Roddy White.Traded 2011 1.05 for Brandon Lloyd.Gave Schaub, Woodhead, and GBP DEF for Peyton Manning.Gave Brandon Jacobs, 1.11, and 1.14 for Gore.Gave Jones, James GBP WR; Year 2010 Draft Pick 1.01;Year 2010 Draft Pick 1.07;Year 2010 Draft Pick 2.07; Year 2011 Round 1 Draft Pick from -FOR- Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB;Colston, Marques NOS WR... then trade Colston for Witten (TEs get 1.5PPR vs 1.0PPR for WRs).

 

[Alex P Keaton]

ok here is my point that you guys didnt get... The fact that these guys dont have value right now is what i was saying, guys like this emerge all the time look at past dynasty drafts you have had...how many guys emerge from the 5-8 rounds into solid talents and potentially elite talents. im not saying every guy is going to be a stud, im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing all the follow guys were drafted in early rounds(of the nfl draft) and had mediocre rookie/sophmore campaigns which killed or dropped there perceived value.They were then had in middle round of dynasty drafts the year after.2010rblesean mccoydarren mcfaddenwrdywayne bowehakeem nicksmike wallacemike williams(tb)2009RBRay Rice Jamaal CharlesRashard MendenhallWRSydney RiceVincent Jacksonsantonio holmes2008QBAaron RodgersPhillip RiversRBDeangelo WilliamsMatt ForteSteve SlatonWRgreg Jennings2007wrBraylon EdwardsRoddy WhiteBrandon MarshallJust because they dont have a lot of value doesnt mean they are not talented...Id say all of the guys on my roster have at least the potential for things to work out...if you disagree then i guess you disagree with the organizations that drafted them in the first 3 rounds

I'm too lazy to read this entire thread, but you're logic is flawed on a few of the above players:- Greg Jennings had 632 yds and 3 TDs as a rookie. In his 2nd year - 1292 yds and 12 TDs.- Hakeem Nicks had 790 yds and 6 TDs as a rookie. He flashed major talent.- Mike Wallace had 756 yds and 6 TDs as a rookie. Ditto.- Santonio Holmes had 824 yds and 2 TDs as a rookie.So....I understand your premise....but think some of your examples above were poorly chosen.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

ok here is my point that you guys didnt get... The fact that these guys dont have value right now is what i was saying, guys like this emerge all the time look at past dynasty drafts you have had...how many guys emerge from the 5-8 rounds into solid talents and potentially elite talents. im not saying every guy is going to be a stud, im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing all the follow guys were drafted in early rounds(of the nfl draft) and had mediocre rookie/sophmore campaigns which killed or dropped there perceived value.They were then had in middle round of dynasty drafts the year after.2010rblesean mccoydarren mcfaddenwrdywayne bowehakeem nicksmike wallacemike williams(tb)2009RBRay Rice Jamaal CharlesRashard MendenhallWRSydney RiceVincent Jacksonsantonio holmes2008QBAaron RodgersPhillip RiversRBDeangelo WilliamsMatt ForteSteve SlatonWRgreg Jennings2007wrBraylon EdwardsRoddy WhiteBrandon MarshallJust because they dont have a lot of value doesnt mean they are not talented...Id say all of the guys on my roster have at least the potential for things to work out...if you disagree then i guess you disagree with the organizations that drafted them in the first 3 rounds

I'm too lazy to read this entire thread, but you're logic is flawed on a few of the above players:- Greg Jennings had 632 yds and 3 TDs as a rookie. In his 2nd year - 1292 yds and 12 TDs.- Hakeem Nicks had 790 yds and 6 TDs as a rookie. He flashed major talent.- Mike Wallace had 756 yds and 6 TDs as a rookie. Ditto.- Santonio Holmes had 824 yds and 2 TDs as a rookie.So....I understand your premise....but think some of your examples above were poorly chosen.I agree, they did show flashes of talent. But, if you bought them before the season they could still be had at a more than reasonable price compared to what they ended up being worth.just made another tradeOne thing to note is your stats are off on Greg Jennings...His second year he had 920 yards... 372 yards less than you stated... nice try 1.04for1.091.11steve smith car

 

[Dez]

Someone bought low from me in 2009. I had Charles sitting on my taxi squad and someone came in with an offer of Boldin straight up in the middle of 2009. I took the offer and was happy to have Boldin and the rest of my league went crazy on how I ripped this guy off....well as we know the next week Larry Johnson was released and Charles became the next big thing and this guy is laughing for the next 5 years.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Someone bought low from me in 2009. I had Charles sitting on my taxi squad and someone came in with an offer of Boldin straight up in the middle of 2009. I took the offer and was happy to have Boldin and the rest of my league went crazy on how I ripped this guy off....well as we know the next week Larry Johnson was released and Charles became the next big thing and this guy is laughing for the next 5 years.

This. Thats all im saying. For instance, last year(during the preseason) I wouldn't have even thought about trading Ray Rice for Mcfadden and Nicks.I got that offer one day and thought for a while and ended up rejecting it. Both of them were higher picks and both were going into the season with starting jobs. Yet Rice's value was so sky high I felt I was losing way to much perceived value to do that type of thing. A risk? yes. But if you really think about it, its more of an educated risk. Teams are not just going to give up on these guys after one or two years and in Nicks case, although he had a great rookie year where he showed more than a few flashes of elite talent, I don't think anyone thought he was an elite talent/top 5 dynasty guy.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

gave up Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE; Year 2011 Draft Pick 1.09;Year 2011

Draft Pick 1.12;Year 2011 Draft Pick 2.01

got Marshall, Brandon MIA WR

Guy is a stud wr, just got stabbed lol

and another small trade

traded 1.11

for a probably late 2012 first and an early 2012 second

as of now my roster looks like this

Romo, Tony DAL QB

Stafford, Matthew DET QB

Goodson, Mike CAR RB

Jones, Felix DAL RB

Spiller, C.J. BUF RB

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

Wells, Chris ARI RB

Avery, Donnie STL WR

Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

LaFell, Brandon CAR WR

Marshall, Brandon MIA WR

Shipley, Jordan CIN WR

Smith, Steve CAR WR

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

Thomas, Mike JAC WR

Greg Little CLE WR

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

Lance Kendricks STL TE

Jets, New York NYJ Def

I also still have the 1.5

 

[footballsavvy]

If you needed depth you simply take your most over valued commodity (in this case, probably Calvin) and you trade him for players that will produce, have ceilings that have not yet been established, but aren't studs yet. I would deal Calvin away for something like Ryan Mathews plus Michael Crabtree and maybe get them to throw in a 2nd or 3rd year flier like Brandon Lafell, Victor Cruz, or something.

Bottom line is that you did not need to dismantle your entire team to add some depth.

Another thing that seemed odd is the sheer number of draft picks you went after because it seemed to go against your strategy.

And don't take this to mean I think Calvin is a bust from here out. I'm just saying he is the furthest player on your original roster from being undervalued. He sells for lots more than Fitz and AJ despite his relatively short, inconsistent career.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

im saying that if things go well a few of them will emerge and I will have gotten them for nearly nothing

If nearly nothing means multiple elite players in your language, then yeah.You did all of this hoping that "a few" of these guys will pan out and reach their potential, and become the "best case scenario" of themselves. Unfortunately, NONE of these guys have the potential that guys you traded away, like Fitz and Calvin, have ALREADY MET, for the most part. A couple of guys, like Stewart, have the chance to equal the production of what you traded away (Rice). But you already had that, and traded it away hoping that you could some time in the future come out even at best. That is not a sound strategy, in any way.Selling high and buying low is a great "theory" (that is widely used in every dynasty league, although you apparently didn't get that memo until this off-season)....but its horribly applied here. It seems you don't understand the concept fully.You have mis-managed this team straight into oblivion.My prediction? A year or two down the road, you quit this league because your "re-build" (which I'd call a "de-build") didn't work and your team isn't very competitive, and you're sick of waiting...you realize you liked being competitive each and every week of the regular and post-season. And the next owner to come in and take over your team will be told hilarious, yet sad stories about the roster his team USED to boast, before it was blown up entirely, in the wrong way.The only thing that's ####tier than going all in with a laughably bad strategy in a serious league? Already having a contingency plan in place if it fails: to quit and find a new league. Pathetic.

First...I wouldnt quit...I would just join ANTOTHER dynasty while I was in the pooper in this one...You my friend Clearly didnt read anything I have said.Why is ray rice anymore of a stud than Stewart Spiller Wells or Felix? You may say situation, but, surely not talent alone. Your making judgements on perceived value and what everyone else is saying...good luck with that strategy.Ray Rice is more of a stud because he's already produced elite numbers, and is young. He's proven he can do it. The only player you acquired in these deals that has come close, and most definitely will again, is Stewart. So of course you'd focus on him. But again, you have to hope for the best case scenario to ever see Stewart even equal Rice's numbers. And how often does the base case scenario actually work out? Now imagine that to even come close to breaking even, half of the guys you traded for would need to fulfill their potential, at least, to rival the production of the sure-fire studs you traded away. That's NOT a good strategy when you had such a solid team. I currently own Stewart, and recently traded away Wells. Have never been a Spiller or Felix owner. I'm well aware of the talent they possess. The point is, you didn't do any "buying low" in these trades. Nor did you effectively "sell high" in most of them.Ok so now that spiller is the starter , Beanie has the Job to himself and Felix is looking fantastic ...what are your thoughts lol...not saying this team is good. Just saying the perceived Value of my RBs have already changed ten fold. Not to mention Jermichael and Romo Current ADPs are TE2 or 3 and QB4-7.I also added Greg Little(1.5) and Lance Kendricks(2.8) through the draft in june. Again, the point im trying to make is on perceived value not actual value.

 

[LawFitz]

There's an old saying that any trade that involves 2-for-1 is a good trade for the guy that gets one. You had Fitz and Calvin and traded them for a pile of broken hopes and dreams.

 

[Rebirtha]

This thread turned out to be far more entertaining than I would have expected.

 

[Runningman]

I think the buy theory is buy high talent at a low cost, not buy low talent at a high cost.

 

[ready5]

buy loaded, sell high?

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Opening day roster (.5 ppr):

Romo, Tony DAL QB

at Jets Sun 8:20 p.m. ET 10.00 2 Passing TDs

13.68 342 Passing Yards

0.90 9 Rushing Yards

0.15 3 Rushes

-2.00 1 Interceptions

-1.00 1 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)

21.73 Subtotal

Jones, Felix DAL RB

at Jets Sun 8:20 p.m. ET 6.00 1 Rushing TDs

4.40 44 Rushing Yards

0.85 17 Rushes

-1.00 1 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)

2.20 22 Receiving Yards

1.50 3 Receptions

13.95 Subtotal

Wells, Chris ARI RB

vs Panthers Sun 4:15 p.m. ET 6.00 1 Rushing TDs

9.00 90 Rushing Yards

0.90 18 Rushes

0.00 0 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)

1.20 12 Receiving Yards

2.00 4 Receptions

19.10 Subtotal

Edwards, Braylon SFO WR

vs Seahawks Sun 4:15 p.m. ET 0.00 0 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)

2.70 27 Receiving Yards

1.50 3 Receptions

4.20 Subtotal

Smith, Steve CAR WR

at Cardinals Sun 4:15 p.m. ET 12.00 2 Receiving TDs

0.00 0 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)

17.80 178 Receiving Yards

4.00 8 Receptions

33.80 Subtotal

Williams, Roy CHI WR

vs Falcons Sun 1:00 p.m. ET 0.00 0 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)

5.50 55 Receiving Yards

2.00 4 Receptions

7.50 Subtotal

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

vs Saints Thu 8:30 p.m. ET 3.00 3 Receptions

5.30 53 Receiving Yards

8.30 Subtotal

Barth, Connor TBB PK

vs Lions Sun 1:00 p.m. ET 2.00 2 Extra Points

3.00 38 yd Field Goal

3.00 31 yd Field Goal

8.00 Subtotal

Jets, New York NYJ Def

vs Cowboys Sun 8:20 p.m. ET 6.00 1 Defensive/Special Teams TDs

4.00 4 Sacked a QB

4.00 2 Fumble Recoveries (from Opponent)

2.00 1 Interceptions

0.00 24 Total Points Allowed

16.00 Subtotal

Just saying........................ I also traded my last 'stud' Greg Jennings for Braylon Edwards and Two 2012 firsts(one of them being the favorite to be no.1 pick (aka Trent Richardson). My reasoning for this is that if my team does in fact bust or I get screwed, I have a backup plan, so I dont have to worry about next year.

I would also like to point out that im the 3rd highest scoring team this week and I lost because I played the highest scoring team.

 

[Crazy Tony]

Opening day roster (.5 ppr):Romo, Tony DAL QBat Jets Sun 8:20 p.m. ET 10.00 2 Passing TDs13.68 342 Passing Yards0.90 9 Rushing Yards0.15 3 Rushes-2.00 1 Interceptions-1.00 1 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)21.73 SubtotalJones, Felix DAL RBat Jets Sun 8:20 p.m. ET 6.00 1 Rushing TDs4.40 44 Rushing Yards0.85 17 Rushes-1.00 1 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)2.20 22 Receiving Yards1.50 3 Receptions13.95 SubtotalWells, Chris ARI RBvs Panthers Sun 4:15 p.m. ET 6.00 1 Rushing TDs9.00 90 Rushing Yards0.90 18 Rushes0.00 0 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)1.20 12 Receiving Yards2.00 4 Receptions19.10 SubtotalEdwards, Braylon SFO WRvs Seahawks Sun 4:15 p.m. ET 0.00 0 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)2.70 27 Receiving Yards1.50 3 Receptions4.20 SubtotalSmith, Steve CAR WRat Cardinals Sun 4:15 p.m. ET 12.00 2 Receiving TDs0.00 0 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)17.80 178 Receiving Yards4.00 8 Receptions33.80 SubtotalWilliams, Roy CHI WRvs Falcons Sun 1:00 p.m. ET 0.00 0 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)5.50 55 Receiving Yards2.00 4 Receptions7.50 SubtotalFinley, Jermichael GBP TEvs Saints Thu 8:30 p.m. ET 3.00 3 Receptions5.30 53 Receiving Yards8.30 SubtotalBarth, Connor TBB PKvs Lions Sun 1:00 p.m. ET 2.00 2 Extra Points3.00 38 yd Field Goal3.00 31 yd Field Goal8.00 SubtotalJets, New York NYJ Defvs Cowboys Sun 8:20 p.m. ET 6.00 1 Defensive/Special Teams TDs4.00 4 Sacked a QB4.00 2 Fumble Recoveries (from Opponent)2.00 1 Interceptions0.00 24 Total Points Allowed16.00 SubtotalJust saying........................ I also traded my last 'stud' Greg Jennings for Braylon Edwards and Two 2012 firsts(one of them being the favorite to be no.1 pick (aka Trent Richardson). My reasoning for this is that if my team does in fact bust or I get screwed, I have a backup plan, so I dont have to worry about next year.I would also like to point out that im the 3rd highest scoring team this week and I lost because I played the highest scoring team.

I"m glad you updated this. We can track how you would've done compared to how you do.BTW: Did you lose to the team you traded your studs to? How did your original studs compare to your new core of starters?Brady:517/4/1 1/3 38.35pts Rice: 19rsh/107/1td 4rec/42/1Td 34.05ptsSJax 2rsh/56/1 11.7ptsMegatron 6/88/2 23.8ptsFitz: 3/62/0 7.7ptsI realize the buy-low strategy. Buy low also means don't overpay. "Willing to acquire studs at any cost" hints at over paying. You're looking for Value..Value can be any STUD or sleeper. Few players in the NFL hit the ground as elite players. (Newton?) Day 1 and stay there for 5-10 years. If you acquire lower ranked players with the hopes of them achieving Stud status...do you then trade them? Possibly...if you get a good price. Sometimes No.If you traded P.Manning last April for a block buster deal...you'd be the biggest F_ing genius in your league right now.If you didn't have any depth on your roster you probably weren't taking players that were desirable. The good thing about Future draft picks is that there's always some sort of demand for it. AND there's no roster limit to the # of draft picks owners can trade you. Theoretically...you could acquire every pick in the 1st round of the draft. That's TOO Many. You don't have the roster spots. Supply/demand states that a few owners would like to have some of those picks to fill their needs. You keep your studs and acquire picks....sell picks for multiple picks and late round players wash and rinse like someone else said. Similar to what you're doing. But you want to hang on to 1-2 core players. Probably the youngest best player. One of the owners in my league has:ELI/Sanchez/CassellH.Nicks, AJohnson, VJackson, LFitzgerald, Ford, MThomas KnoxCJohnson, MJD, LWashington, Some handcuffs and kick returners. He acquires players by consolidationg trade. I'll give you older player for younger upcoming player and pick. By Acquiring 2012 First Rounder draft choices he targets team that likely finishes last...trades for their 1st rounder. Then Trade's his 1st rounder. He won the league 2011. 2nd place 2007, 2008, 2009. 2010 draft he drafted Dwyer/Edelman and by round 4 traded them for 1st rounder 2011 to another stacked team(eventually the 1.07 pick where Newton was taken). That freed up roster spot and he took Jacoby Ford. He had 3 first rounders and he traded all of them away. The player he sold Dwyer/Edelman to OWNS:TBrady/BigBEN Colt McCoy. (Just traded Vick for McCoy and 1.04 2011) Lloyd, Holmes, Edwards, Welker, WardDMC, Turner, Sproles, LT, DThomas, Keller, Miller,They just played in season opener and Brady lead second team to Victory...What I like on this team is that he drafted McFadden and he's rotted on his roster for 2 years...he wouldn't trade him (or brady quinn) Eventually McFadden pulled through. I sold the Farm to get RIVERS. I drafted some key players when I took over my team. Forte, Djax. I built teams around these players as anchors. WHAT real NFL team has depth but no Studs and is successful? Build around studs. You want clear cut starters. You don't want Game Day Roster Decisions from Hell every week, all year long. You get that when you have a bunch of flex players equally talented and a few boom/bust guys going 0 receptions on 4 targets or grabbing 3 REC for 105 and TD....(Lee Evans and Early Doucet's week 1 stats). There's nothing wrong with trading two mediocre players for a 1 younger better player to be a starter. That clears up roster space. Extra players that aren't better or dont' have upside or are older don't cut it. Lloyd took 6 seasons to break outTolbert undraftedAlex Smith JaMarcus Russell #1 overall. (I'm still pulling for Alex since he's my QB3).Steve Johnson took 3 years before he broke out. I don't know what round he was drafted in.Kurt Warner played Arena League football and bagged groceries he was also brought in to backup Matt Leinart HAHA. He did them one better. I think you will be pleasantly surprised with your trade for FJaxI think Benn could be a sleeper.You'll have fun rebuilding your team to greatness again. Draft picks...talented young players...veteran consistency and young stud workhorses are all good.But if some guy breaks Bo Jackson's 4.18 40yd dash. I will sell my roster to grab him if he's a RB or WR or God Forbid a QB.

 

[Shutout]

In a nutshell, although I may not have done the same thing the OP did, I agree witht he premise, especially in really big leagues.

I play mainly in 16 team dynasty leagues w/IDP and it seems that every year, the team that looks like a world beater on paper will make the playoffs but never wins the playoffs. Seems like the studs always get sat at the end or that one injury leavs them with no depth. Seems like every year the team winning is that team that has the Steve Johnson/Mike Thomas/Manningham combo instead of the Calvin/Roddy/Peterson combo.

I think there really is something to it.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Opening day roster (.5 ppr):Romo, Tony DAL QBat Jets Sun 8:20 p.m. ET 10.00 2 Passing TDs13.68 342 Passing Yards0.90 9 Rushing Yards0.15 3 Rushes-2.00 1 Interceptions-1.00 1 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)21.73 SubtotalJones, Felix DAL RBat Jets Sun 8:20 p.m. ET 6.00 1 Rushing TDs4.40 44 Rushing Yards0.85 17 Rushes-1.00 1 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)2.20 22 Receiving Yards1.50 3 Receptions13.95 SubtotalWells, Chris ARI RBvs Panthers Sun 4:15 p.m. ET 6.00 1 Rushing TDs9.00 90 Rushing Yards0.90 18 Rushes0.00 0 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)1.20 12 Receiving Yards2.00 4 Receptions19.10 SubtotalEdwards, Braylon SFO WRvs Seahawks Sun 4:15 p.m. ET 0.00 0 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)2.70 27 Receiving Yards1.50 3 Receptions4.20 SubtotalSmith, Steve CAR WRat Cardinals Sun 4:15 p.m. ET 12.00 2 Receiving TDs0.00 0 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)17.80 178 Receiving Yards4.00 8 Receptions33.80 SubtotalWilliams, Roy CHI WRvs Falcons Sun 1:00 p.m. ET 0.00 0 Fumbles Lost (to Opponent)5.50 55 Receiving Yards2.00 4 Receptions7.50 SubtotalFinley, Jermichael GBP TEvs Saints Thu 8:30 p.m. ET 3.00 3 Receptions5.30 53 Receiving Yards8.30 SubtotalBarth, Connor TBB PKvs Lions Sun 1:00 p.m. ET 2.00 2 Extra Points3.00 38 yd Field Goal3.00 31 yd Field Goal8.00 SubtotalJets, New York NYJ Defvs Cowboys Sun 8:20 p.m. ET 6.00 1 Defensive/Special Teams TDs4.00 4 Sacked a QB4.00 2 Fumble Recoveries (from Opponent)2.00 1 Interceptions0.00 24 Total Points Allowed16.00 SubtotalJust saying........................ I also traded my last 'stud' Greg Jennings for Braylon Edwards and Two 2012 firsts(one of them being the favorite to be no.1 pick (aka Trent Richardson). My reasoning for this is that if my team does in fact bust or I get screwed, I have a backup plan, so I dont have to worry about next year.I would also like to point out that im the 3rd highest scoring team this week and I lost because I played the highest scoring team.

I"m glad you updated this. We can track how you would've done compared to how you do.BTW: Did you lose to the team you traded your studs to? How did your original studs compare to your new core of starters?Brady:517/4/1 1/3 38.35pts Rice: 19rsh/107/1td 4rec/42/1Td 34.05ptsSJax 2rsh/56/1 11.7ptsMegatron 6/88/2 23.8ptsFitz: 3/62/0 7.7ptsI realize the buy-low strategy. Buy low also means don't overpay. "Willing to acquire studs at any cost" hints at over paying. You're looking for Value..Value can be any STUD or sleeper. Few players in the NFL hit the ground as elite players. (Newton?) Day 1 and stay there for 5-10 years. If you acquire lower ranked players with the hopes of them achieving Stud status...do you then trade them? Possibly...if you get a good price. Sometimes No.If you traded P.Manning last April for a block buster deal...you'd be the biggest F_ing genius in your league right now.If you didn't have any depth on your roster you probably weren't taking players that were desirable. The good thing about Future draft picks is that there's always some sort of demand for it. AND there's no roster limit to the # of draft picks owners can trade you. Theoretically...you could acquire every pick in the 1st round of the draft. That's TOO Many. You don't have the roster spots. Supply/demand states that a few owners would like to have some of those picks to fill their needs. You keep your studs and acquire picks....sell picks for multiple picks and late round players wash and rinse like someone else said. Similar to what you're doing. But you want to hang on to 1-2 core players. Probably the youngest best player. One of the owners in my league has:ELI/Sanchez/CassellH.Nicks, AJohnson, VJackson, LFitzgerald, Ford, MThomas KnoxCJohnson, MJD, LWashington, Some handcuffs and kick returners. He acquires players by consolidationg trade. I'll give you older player for younger upcoming player and pick. By Acquiring 2012 First Rounder draft choices he targets team that likely finishes last...trades for their 1st rounder. Then Trade's his 1st rounder. He won the league 2011. 2nd place 2007, 2008, 2009. 2010 draft he drafted Dwyer/Edelman and by round 4 traded them for 1st rounder 2011 to another stacked team(eventually the 1.07 pick where Newton was taken). That freed up roster spot and he took Jacoby Ford. He had 3 first rounders and he traded all of them away. The player he sold Dwyer/Edelman to OWNS:TBrady/BigBEN Colt McCoy. (Just traded Vick for McCoy and 1.04 2011) Lloyd, Holmes, Edwards, Welker, WardDMC, Turner, Sproles, LT, DThomas, Keller, Miller,They just played in season opener and Brady lead second team to Victory...What I like on this team is that he drafted McFadden and he's rotted on his roster for 2 years...he wouldn't trade him (or brady quinn) Eventually McFadden pulled through. I sold the Farm to get RIVERS. I drafted some key players when I took over my team. Forte, Djax. I built teams around these players as anchors. WHAT real NFL team has depth but no Studs and is successful? Build around studs. You want clear cut starters. You don't want Game Day Roster Decisions from Hell every week, all year long. You get that when you have a bunch of flex players equally talented and a few boom/bust guys going 0 receptions on 4 targets or grabbing 3 REC for 105 and TD....(Lee Evans and Early Doucet's week 1 stats). There's nothing wrong with trading two mediocre players for a 1 younger better player to be a starter. That clears up roster space. Extra players that aren't better or dont' have upside or are older don't cut it. Lloyd took 6 seasons to break outTolbert undraftedAlex Smith JaMarcus Russell #1 overall. (I'm still pulling for Alex since he's my QB3).Steve Johnson took 3 years before he broke out. I don't know what round he was drafted in.Kurt Warner played Arena League football and bagged groceries he was also brought in to backup Matt Leinart HAHA. He did them one better. I think you will be pleasantly surprised with your trade for FJaxI think Benn could be a sleeper.You'll have fun rebuilding your team to greatness again. Draft picks...talented young players...veteran consistency and young stud workhorses are all good.But if some guy breaks Bo Jackson's 4.18 40yd dash. I will sell my roster to grab him if he's a RB or WR or God Forbid a QB.No, actually I lost to a team with Mike Tolbert and 49ers defense... But yes, I do agree, I need core guys. The whole point of me doing this whole experiment was to prove that there is criteria to who is going to breakout. My whole point is that guys like Beanie Wells, Felix Jones, Steve Smith and Tony Romo get overlooked because of perceived value, not what they are actually worth. I broke down this team to prove a point and I think im well on my way to proving it.Also, Steven Jackson...out at least a few weeks..

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

OK, last time I'm bumping this thread.

Made a trade before the weekend:

Mediocre first and Stafford for Josh Freeman and Brandon Lloyd.

This is the definition of the type of stuff im talking about. Lloyd and Freeman are clearly good talents, Freeman has gotten off to a slow start and Lloyd has been injured. People ASSUME Lloyd is officially a bust because of his stats and because the Broncos have played horrible this year.The negative stench from Denver is affecting his value. What people fail to notice is that hes been hurt and In the two games he wasn't: 14 catches for 225 yards. Brandon Lloyd is an elite WR and is making his situation rather than letting it make him.

I realize naming this thread 'The buy low theory' was a big error because of how people perceive that meaning. But, stockpiling your team with solid to elite talents that have not proven it yet is what I meant. It is literally clockwork that if you fill you roster with a bunch of these guys every year...a few will breakout. Steve Smith had little value before the season because nobody believed in Cam Newton. Now look at him, 2nd in the league in receiving yards. Barring him playing in a hurricane in week 3 he could be higher. Beanie Wells did this his rookie year also but, because he got injured, people completely gave up on him and called him soft because that was the perception when he was at Ohio State.

The guys that have failed so far are Felix Jones, Lance Kendricks, Arrelious Benn, Braylon Edwards, C J Spiller, Roy Williams and Donnie Avery. Thats a lot of guys to be wrong on, but its ok because they didn't have much value to begin with . Mathew Stafford Tony Romo Beanie Wells Steve Smith and Jermichael Finley (not to mention a little help from Jason Hanson and Jets d )have 'broken out' so far and have saved my season from complete humiliation. But did they really breakout? The talent was already there , people just became aware of it when it showed on the field. Look at Darren Mcfadden, Now that hes finally getting the numbers people are admitting hes elite, when he was clearly elite the entire time. The NFL has made a big transition in the past 5 years. It seems now there are more targets to go around and they are more spread out. This to memeans less and less talent slips through the cracks. If a guy is talented enough now, he will get his shot to produce. Just because the guys I mentioned about as 'busts' have not played well yet, does not mean they cant or wont again, it just means they are off to a slow start.

One side note:

I am sold....Once Fred Jackson stops being hercules , CJ Spiller is going to be star, put it on the board...yesss

Guys I like for the rest of the year:

Darius Heyward Bey

Mark Ingram

Jonathan Stewart

James Starks

Montario Hardesty

Felix Jones

Denarius Moore

MIchael Crabtree

Edit to add: Parenthesis

 

[thriftyrocker]

Made a trade before the weekend:Mediocre first and Stafford for Josh Freeman and Brandon Lloyd. This is the definition of the type of stuff im talking about. Lloyd and Freeman are clearly good talents, Freeman has gotten off to a slow start and Lloyd has been injured. People ASSUME Lloyd is officially a bust because of his stats and because the Broncos have played horrible this year.The negative stench from Denver is affecting his value. What people fail to notice is that hes been hurt and In the two games he wasn't: 14 catches for 225 yards. Brandon Lloyd is an elite WR and is making his situation rather than letting it make him.

People realize Lloyd is an injury risk 30 year old WR on a "run first/run second" team. I wouldn't be surprised to see a deal with the 1st on the other side go through. If Stafford is becoming an elite fantasy QB, he's worth more than that. I think you were selling at August prices for Stafford.

But, stockpiling your team with solid to elite talents that have not proven it yet is what I meant. It is literally clockwork that if you fill you roster with a bunch of these guys every year...a few will breakout.

A competing strategy is consolidating talent to improve your lineup. Giving up multiple "very good" pieces to get one elite piece that improves your lineup. The trade you posted is more successful in that vein, locking down an elite QB in Stafford who is performing at top 5 level.

Darius Heyward BeyDenarius Moore

I realize DHB will continue to get targets but even rostering him is folly IMO.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Darius Heyward Bey

Don't hesitate to keep bumping this. It's interesting to see how your team will fare.I'm not sold on this strategy as much as you are but there's certainly something to the buy low/sell high theory. I do not understand the interest in DHB. What are you seeing that intrigues you?

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Darius Heyward Bey

Don't hesitate to keep bumping this. It's interesting to see how your team will fare.I'm not sold on this strategy as much as you are but there's certainly something to the buy low/sell high theory. I do not understand the interest in DHB. What are you seeing that intrigues you?Honestly, he just looks like a different WR this year, at least to me. He seems a lot more comfortable catching the ball and just being out there in general. The guy has loads of talent, not the best hands but everything else seems to be coming along. The athletic ability has always been there, if he can get any type of consistency going hands-wise he will be all set. I dont know, what did you think of him last game? Lance Kendricks looks a lot like rookie DHB out there right now. some guys just need time and experience before they can make a big impact.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Darius Heyward Bey

Don't hesitate to keep bumping this. It's interesting to see how your team will fare.I'm not sold on this strategy as much as you are but there's certainly something to the buy low/sell high theory. I do not understand the interest in DHB. What are you seeing that intrigues you?

Honestly, he just looks like a different WR this year, at least to me. He seems a lot more comfortable catching the ball and just being out there in general. The guy has loads of talent, not the best hands but everything else seems to be coming along. The athletic ability has always been there, if he can get any type of consistency going hands-wise he will be all set. I dont know, what did you think of him last game? Lance Kendricks looks a lot like rookie DHB out there right now. some guys just need time and experience before they can make a big impact.I'm of the opinion some things can be improved. I do not believe ones hands fall in that category. His weakness coming into the NFL was his hands. His weakness is still his hands. He still drops passes and bobbles easy catches.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Darius Heyward Bey

Don't hesitate to keep bumping this. It's interesting to see how your team will fare.I'm not sold on this strategy as much as you are but there's certainly something to the buy low/sell high theory. I do not understand the interest in DHB. What are you seeing that intrigues you?

Honestly, he just looks like a different WR this year, at least to me. He seems a lot more comfortable catching the ball and just being out there in general. The guy has loads of talent, not the best hands but everything else seems to be coming along. The athletic ability has always been there, if he can get any type of consistency going hands-wise he will be all set. I dont know, what did you think of him last game? Lance Kendricks looks a lot like rookie DHB out there right now. some guys just need time and experience before they can make a big impact.I'm of the opinion some things can be improved. I do not believe ones hands fall in that category. His weakness coming into the NFL was his hands. His weakness is still his hands. He still drops passes and bobbles easy catches.To be honest I didn't watch much of him in college , could go either way. Worth a dynasty flier IMO

 

[Crazy Tony]

The "paper champions" that have loaded teams don't look for sleepers as much because they don't have as much room on their roster. And are content.

Necessity is the mother of invention. If you need to find a sleeper RB, hidden value your'e going to go looking and finding and basing guesses of certain data. If you have 3 stud RBs...you're busy declining crappy trade offers.

If you do get a sleeper on your roster it's hard to start him over a stud. I sat Hernandez in favor of Gates weeks 1-2. Now they're both hurt.

What If you sat Newton weeks 1, 2 started him week 3...got pissed and benched him...week 4... screwed it up in the worst way possible.

Having a less loaded team usually means... Mannings out...now Collins is too...I can start Tavaris or Hasselbeck and be pleasantly surprised.

There's talent and value to be had there but you also have to sell at the right time. I think personally you've done more trades this this thread started than my entire league during the same period. Having active owners that do those trades helps.

If you're able to sell players for draft picks and retain value that doesn't take up a roster spot thats good. I screwed up and retained too much value at my draft. Eventually had to cut players I drafted before week 1 due to lack of roster spolts.

What I believe you're describing is an ownership philosophy that promotes a mix of prospecting vs acquiring and riding studs at 'full retail price.'

I do agree that there's talent to be had every year and I try to put myself in a position that maintains certain scoring advantages but force myself to go find sleepers. That gives you the right mix of luck, increased value from a sleeper and retained value from selling "studs".

My dynasty team has never been loaded and balanced enough to 'blow it up' My redfraft rosters are such that I tinker with it and myself to go find good players...if I don't... I might end up with a higher draft pick the next year.

 

[Irish Catholic]

wisc -- if you are looking for another money league please join mine. we would make great trading partners.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

wisc -- if you are looking for another money league please join mine. we would make great trading partners.

LOL ...Can't say this is the usual for me. I'd say im bringing the Gus Hansen aspect to Fantasy football

 

[AmosMoses]

If you could just change the title to "The Sell Low Theory" it would be more descriptive. thx

 

[DAMAC3]

I didn't read all the posts, so I apologize if someone else already said this. Your premise isn't horrible. The problem is you took it way too far. Every team needs somes studs to build around. You don't trade them all away. You pick your spots. And if you do trade a stud, you better get A LOT of upside potential. All these players you are talking about that people are giving up on can usually be had cheap or snagged off of the waiver wire. Why would you trade a top player at their position for that? Your perceived value vs actual value is exactly what you should be looking at. Fred Jackson is an excellent example of high actual value and low perceived value. But you don't trade away Ray Rice (high perceived and actual value) to get Jackson and some depth player.

Your original team would be kicking some butt this year.

 

[ready5]

this is a horrible strategy for redraft, but one of the best strategies for dynasty.

 

[ready5]

and a better dynasty strategy is selling someone like you cheaply acquired potential studs in exchange for proven producers (and riding them through the playoffs).

 

[Hank Mardukas]

I didn't read all the posts, so I apologize if someone else already said this. Your premise isn't horrible. The problem is you took it way too far. Every team needs somes studs to build around. You don't trade them all away. You pick your spots. And if you do trade a stud, you better get A LOT of upside potential. All these players you are talking about that people are giving up on can usually be had cheap or snagged off of the waiver wire. Why would you trade a top player at their position for that? Your perceived value vs actual value is exactly what you should be looking at. Fred Jackson is an excellent example of high actual value and low perceived value. But you don't trade away Ray Rice (high perceived and actual value) to get Jackson and some depth player. Your original team would be kicking some butt this year.

This. The philosophical premise for what he did is sound, but the execution is a complete failure. "Buy low" means you pay a low price for a player who has a lower perceived value ("market price") than what you believe is the true value ("target price"). He payed high prices for players with low perceived value. The entire point of trying to buy low is that it doesn't cost you much. If I think Ford is a quality company with strong fundamentals and a bright future, I would buy them now while their stock price is depressed and wait for that intrinsic value to be expressed down the road (i.e. stock price will rise). The current market price for Ford is 10.47. I don't go offer a seller 14.50 for his shares just because I want Ford and think they're a good company; I pay the market price and wait for value to go up.ETA: I also didn't read through the whole thread so I apologize if this is redundant with previous comments.

 

[goodoldalky]

from the two best young wrs in the game, fitz and calvin, to three guys with torn acls, one with a chronic foot problem,brandon lafell and mike thomas? Really?

My 02, not a fan. It may work out, who knows...

Here's what you missed, you don't trade calvin johnson for shipley and crabtree, or whoever. That's terrible. You may trade him for aj green and julio jones, that's not terrible.

You don't trade ray rice for beanie wells plus one. You trade him for mark ingram and ryan mathews.

You just went too far w this and got less value in return than you should have.

 

[Flying Elvis]

It's a good strategy that, like all things, is best in moderation. Moving some of your studs rather than all of them can yield great results without bankrupting your squad with too many strikeouts.Also, simply b/c I found it funny, your one 'admittedly bad trade' looks like one of the best! I bet you wished you held on to Freddy right now . . .

3. Larry Fitzgerald for Jermichael Finley Mike Thomas and Fred Jackson . . . i will have gotten great value on them. and also in the process I sold high on most of the guys I traded(other than Fitzgerald an admittedly bad trade).

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

It's a good strategy that, like all things, is best in moderation. Moving some of your studs rather than all of them can yield great results without bankrupting your squad with too many strikeouts.Also, simply b/c I found it funny, your one 'admittedly bad trade' looks like one of the best! I bet you wished you held on to Freddy right now . . .

3. Larry Fitzgerald for Jermichael Finley Mike Thomas and Fred Jackson . . . i will have gotten great value on them. and also in the process I sold high on most of the guys I traded(other than Fitzgerald an admittedly bad trade).

LOL I was just thinking that actually.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Schmiden Theory

Starters

Freeman, Josh TBB QB 3.73

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB 4.10

Wells, Chris ARI RB 13.00

Lloyd, Brandon DEN WR 2.50

Smith, Steve CAR WR 15.40

Washington, Nate TEN WR 9.40

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE 10.70

Hanson, Jason DET PK -

Jets, New York NYJ Def 4.00

Starter Total: 62.83

Non-Starters

Romo, Tony DAL QB 0

Jones, Felix DAL RB 0

Murray, DeMarco DAL RB 0

Spiller, C.J. BUF RB 2.70

Avery, Donnie TEN WR 0.00

Benn, Arrelious TBB WR 6.10

Edwards, Braylon SFO WR 0

Gates, Clyde MIA WR 0

Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR 0

Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR 19.40

Little, Greg CLE WR 0

Kendricks, Lance STL TE 0

Non-Starter Total: 28.20

Starter + Non-Starter Total: 91.0

First bad week and just like I shared with the good weeks, I will share with the bad ones....and by bad week I mean really bad week. I'm now sitting at 2-3 barring something remarkable from Jason Hanson. Although it was a miserable scoring week I was pleansantly surprised by one of my WRs Darrius Heyward-Bey. He looks to be emerging and showing the talent everyone knew he had, but completely lost faith in. I also see Arrelious Benn on the verge of a breakout every week, even with the offense in shambles. The guy makes big plays and runs many more routes than big mike. I would grab him now while he still has little to no value.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Romo, Tony DAL QB

Stafford, Matthew DET QB

Jones, Felix DAL RB

Wells, Beanie ARI RB

Murray, DeMarco DAL RB

Spiller, C.J. BUF RB

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

Donald Brown IND RB

Edwards, Braylon SFO WR

Smith, Steve CAR WR

Williams, Roy CHI WR

Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR

Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR

Little, Greg CLE WR

Gates, Clyde MIA WR

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

Kendricks, Lance STL TE

Barth, Connor TBB PK

Jets, New York NYJ Def

the first rookie pick looks to be almost a lock for 1.1(Trent Richardson) and the other one is a late one.

Ok so here is my opening day roster. I'm 3-7 and staring my 8th loss right in the face and my team doesn't really look like this anymore. I felt like it wasn't fair to judge my team on who I have on it now because I made a bunch of trades since then(adding brandon Lloyd and a bunch of other stuff that no one cares about).

To be honest I dont think the value of my team will ever be back to what it was when I first started this thing. But I dont really think I did it for the soul purpose of winning this year either. I wanted to have fun and test out if I could Correctly judge which players are going to break out. I got 3 of them Mathew Stafford, Demarco Murray and Steve Smith car. I also think Beanie Wells and Darrius Heyward Bey increased there value quite a bit.

What are your guys thoughts on this roster now? Do you think I would have been able to compete for the championship in 2012 if I still had this roster?

 

[bonesman]

I also think Beanie Wells and Darrius Heyward Bey increased there value quite a bit.

Compared to Calvin Johnson? Because that's what you gave for Wells. I'm pretty sure if I were you I would want this thread to just disappear. Kudos to you for keeping it alive and trying to learn something from your experiment, I guess.