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The Dynasty Manager’s Rookie Draft Hall of Yikes (1 Viewer)

The one that stings the most for me was taking Denzel Mims over Tee Higgins.   Picks that just didn't work out don't usually bother me as long as I can look back and say that my thought process was good based on the information I had at the time.  In this case it wasn't.  Higgins was the guy I had been hoping to get at that point but when I was on the clock I just happened to be searching online and read an article singing the praises of Mims and on impulse I went and drafted him.  Oof.

 
The one that stings the most for me was taking Denzel Mims over Tee Higgins.   Picks that just didn't work out don't usually bother me as long as I can look back and say that my thought process was good based on the information I had at the time.  In this case it wasn't.  Higgins was the guy I had been hoping to get at that point but when I was on the clock I just happened to be searching online and read an article singing the praises of Mims and on impulse I went and drafted him.  Oof.
That is why I don't do research of that type of thing during the draft.  I will check on a last minute injury status but don't do "research".  I have already studied for the test (draft) and trust I am prepared.  I don't want to muddy things up with last minute info.  

 
I don’t get the Kevin Jones mentions in here, but then again, I don’t call players busts due to freak injuries.  My first startup dynasty was terrible and I had the 1.01 rookie 4 years in a row.  First rookie pick was Jones and second year rookie pick was Cadillac.  Unfortunate picks but not busts.  Won the league back to back years 4 years later due to trading the 1.01 the next season ( Peterson) that landed the 1.02 (Megatron) and the 1.05 (Willis) coupled with some Savvy trading. 
 

Memorable busts in the 1st and 2nd would be Eric Shelton, Trent Richardson, and Pat White.  

 
That is why I don't do research of that type of thing during the draft.  I will check on a last minute injury status but don't do "research".  I have already studied for the test (draft) and trust I am prepared.  I don't want to muddy things up with last minute info.  
Redraft & dynasty, I always end up doing a “wellness check” to make sure the player i want isn’t hurt.

sometimes (always) other links pop up with takes of caution or heaps of praises about said players - it’s so difficult to avoid last second undue influence. 

 
Championship!
A while back, a league-mate in redraft who in 14 years had never had a top 3 pick pulled 1.01 & did a little happy dance.

Once rules proposals were voted on & we were off & running, he positively sprinted up to the draft board, pulled the sticker & loudly proclaimed “Adrian Peterson!” as the 1st overall pick.

Naturally, he’d pulled the Chicago RB named Adrian Peterson.

We gave him a Mulligan, but only after a solid 15 mins of making him sweat. :lol:  

 
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A while back, a league-mate in redraft who in 14 years had never had a top 3 pick pulled 1.01 & did a little happy dance.

Once rules proposals were voted on & we were off & running, he positively sprinted up to the draft board, pulled the sticker & loudly proclaimed “Adrian Peterson!” as the 1st overall pick.

Naturally, he’d pulled the Chicago RB named Adrian Peterson.

We gave him a Mulligan, but only after a solid 15 mins of making him sweat. :lol:  
That is nothing.......Our league rules state that you can make one mistake (pick a player already taken with no penalty) but every subsequent mistake causes you to lose that pick.  One year a guy got so hammered that he ended up taking Jeff Blake three times.  He drafted him so he was on his team.  He make a mistake trying to draft a player that had already been drafted which was a freebie.  Then he took Jeff Blake (lost a pick).  A few rounds later he took Jeff Blake again (lost another pick).  It was truly amazing.  

 
That is nothing.......Our league rules state that you can make one mistake (pick a player already taken with no penalty) but every subsequent mistake causes you to lose that pick.  One year a guy got so hammered that he ended up taking Jeff Blake three times.  He drafted him so he was on his team.  He make a mistake trying to draft a player that had already been drafted which was a freebie.  Then he took Jeff Blake (lost a pick).  A few rounds later he took Jeff Blake again (lost another pick).  It was truly amazing.  
oh. my. god. 

:o  

That's hysterical. 

We had to introduce the rule, "if your time is up & you don't call a name, you get skipped for 1 pick".  Not coincidentally, that rule was implemented the year after our leaguemate who owns a pizzeria started bringing a keg to the draft. 

Since then, league members have been more deliberate with their picks, and slowed their drinking down a little. lol 

 
ghostguy123 said:
How bout just let people have their drinks and not be so strict on your draft rules.

Get off your own lawn you no fun havin loonies
IDP redraft - 27 rounds. it takes 6.5 hours  without people taking more than their allotted 2 mins. 

now turn down that rap & roll - this used to be a decent neighborhood!  :rant:

 
So 6 hours of no fun? Just make it 8 hours WITH fun
Oh, we have plenty of fun. One league member owns a pizzeria, so we have 4-5 freshly made take & bakes, a keg of good beer, and there's heckling galore. 

The "fun" quotient is mutually exclusive to the 2:00 clock. 

And in fact, one can derive that there's significantly less fun when people go over their time. It really breaks down to 6.5 hours of fun > 8 hours of annoyance when people pick players already taken, or spend an extra minute hemming & hawing staring at stickers, while 11 other people are waiting to pick.

Like I said, since we put in the "skip" rule (not a round, just 1 pick then it goes back to you) no one is late with their picks any more. Problem solved. 

/topic derail

 
ghostguy123 said:
How bout just let people have their drinks and not be so strict on your draft rules.

Get off your own lawn you no fun havin loonies
what is more fun than busting on a guy for years and years because he drafted Jeff Blake three times and lost two picks because of it?  That is awesome fun and everyone loves it (maybe not the Blake owner but he deserves all the crap anyway..hahahah)

 
Who were your top (up to 5) dynasty 1st round pick blunders from seasons past? Why did you rate them so highly, and how badly did you miss? 

From memory:

 Trent Richardson. I traded Dez Bryant for him (which a decade later seems less painful) 

Reggie bush. Like 90% of fans, I bought into the electric hype  

wanting Charles Rodgers over Andre Johnson. At least in one league I got sniped and settled for AJ  

Tyrone Calico. Late first, not overly painful but iirc I traded Drew Brees for him

 high 2nd - taking Chris Henry (the Titan) over Patrick Willis and Jon Beason. 
 

lesson to be learned? 🤷 other than taking the bpa instead of a lesser rb, I’m not really sure. 

 
lesson to be learned? 🤷 other than taking the bpa instead of a lesser rb, I’m not really sure. 
That is the most important lesson of rookie drafts.  The rookie draft is a crap shoot as it is.  A successful pick is finding an every week starter for your lineup.  Anything that will limit that chance is a bad approach (like a lesser player at a position of need).   Even taking a player at a position of strength that hits is better than taking a lesser player at a position of need that doesn't hit.  

Bottom line taking the BPA gives you the best chance at getting a player that hits.  Position is irrelevant.  I found that to be the most important thing and it has helped my drafts over the years.  

 
Lehigh98 said:
Unrelated to the thread but related to your story...  a friend drafted Fred Lane about a month after he was murdered by his wife.  While he had his back to us, about to write the name on the board, the rest of us all looked at each other silently deciding whether to say anything.  Someone finally broke the news and we let him pick again.
We had the same thing happen in my league.  Nearly same reaction, but we are all good friends so we let him repick also.

 
That is the most important lesson of rookie drafts.  The rookie draft is a crap shoot as it is.  A successful pick is finding an every week starter for your lineup.  Anything that will limit that chance is a bad approach (like a lesser player at a position of need).   Even taking a player at a position of strength that hits is better than taking a lesser player at a position of need that doesn't hit.  

Bottom line taking the BPA gives you the best chance at getting a player that hits.  Position is irrelevant.  I found that to be the most important thing and it has helped my drafts over the years.  
And not only that, you can trade the BPA and potentially profit on the pick before the draft is even over, rather than taking the best "position that fits your team" and letting that value slide to someone else. 

💡

 
That is the most important lesson of rookie drafts.  The rookie draft is a crap shoot as it is.  A successful pick is finding an every week starter for your lineup.  Anything that will limit that chance is a bad approach (like a lesser player at a position of need).   Even taking a player at a position of strength that hits is better than taking a lesser player at a position of need that doesn't hit.  

Bottom line taking the BPA gives you the best chance at getting a player that hits.  Position is irrelevant.  I found that to be the most important thing and it has helped my drafts over the years.  
Absolutely.  Needs change.  Values of players change all the time.  

Not to mention it's also easier to trade a good player at a position your are stacked than a bad player at any other position.  

If you value two guys the same and cant choose, your roster may matter.  That's about the only time I would look at need.

 
That is the most important lesson of rookie drafts.  The rookie draft is a crap shoot as it is.

Bottom line taking the BPA gives you the best chance at getting a player that hits.


Totally agree and as I listed my misses, and had some huge one's that did not take make top 5, it really dawned on me how many major misses I've had and still have managed really good success so stands to reasons this is just par for the course.

And I would chalk up my #1 mistake has been going need over BPA. I did come to this conclusion a few years ago and things have gone far more smoothly since.

 
Too many to count for me when I was in Zealots leagues.

My first league there - which I was in for probably 10-12 years - it seemed I was forever chasing RBs (Charlie Garner was my best RB in the early years and this was non-PPR) One year, I took Eric Shelton in the 1st round of our rookie draft. That went well.

Same league and I had a really solid group of IDP, but my LB corps was getting old and I took Aaron Curry at the end of the first round figuring I'd have a tackle machine for the next half decade. Aaron Curry was not a tackle machine.

There were many, MANY more but I've forgotten most of them in an act of preserving what little self-esteem I have left.

 
Very difficult to assess BPA when the players just seem to form an unidentifiable mass where the opportunity that they will receive is the concern rather than identifiable talent differentials at some point. Especially when need is glaring and omnipresent to the GM. I'm a full believer in BPA, too, it's that my personal scouting and assessment is circumspect at times. All of ours is, which is why Justin Jefferson went very much behind Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb in almost every rookie draft in 2020. If only we could use the year and have it as hindsight we could act upon in that case! 

Just saying that it's not that easy sometimes.  

 
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Very difficult to assess BPA when the players just seem to form an unidentifiable mass where the opportunity that they will receive is the concern rather than identifiable talent differentials at some point. Especially when need is glaring and omnipresent to the GM. I'm a full believer in BPA, too, it's that my personal scouting and assessment is circumspect at times. All of ours is, which is why Justin Jefferson went very much behind Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb in almost every rookie draft in 2020. If only we could use the year and have it as hindsight we could act upon in that case! 

Just saying that it's not that easy sometimes.  
The role of ADP is such a big factor here, too. You mention Jefferson. I had him as the #1 WR coming out but knew there was no reason to draft him as such because I could get him later.

I felt the same about T Marshall this last year (#2 behind Chase) but was wrong. 

 
I had him as the #1 WR coming out but knew there was no reason to draft him as such because I could get him later.
To the victors go the spoils! I remember you had him all over your leagues. Good assessment, good call. 

Did you make any appropriate moves up or down to get him? Just curious. 

I felt the same about T Marshall this last year (#2 behind Chase) but was wrong.
It happens. I had him probably third, battling with Waddle for third behind Chase and Bateman. I was never in a position to muck it up by picking him, though. 

 
Birdie048 said:
While I realize this is Dynasty Rookie Draft related, I cannot help but recall a friend who drafted Eddie George 2 years after he retired....  
over the years I’ve come to realize that there are some people who just shouldn’t be in dynasty leagues and maybe FF at all and it’s a bad situation to be in if you happen to be in a league with one of those people 

 
rockaction said:
To the victors go the spoils! I remember you had him all over your leagues. Good assessment, good call. 

Did you make any appropriate moves up or down to get him? Just curious. 
Good question. I really don't remember. I remember I got him in 2 startups and yes I did target him and move up. But they were stupid value. Looking now I took him at 10.04 in one startup as the rookie WR6. Oh that was SF though. 27 QBs went before 10.04. Ok looking back it was the first trade I made in the startup and moved my 5.03 for a 2021 1st and 10.04. So I wasn't targeting Jefferson there apparently. That startup was prior to the NFL draft.

I love looking back at this stuff - I see now that I packaged the 2021 1st I acquired there with Barkley, who I took at 1.03 in a SF draft, and Drew Lock for Josh Allen, Hunt and Slayton. That trade was after Barkley got hurt. 

The other startup that year was after the NFL draft. SF again but I got Jefferson at 7.02 as the rookie WR4. It was a targeted move. I went from 7.07 to 7.02 for the cost of 11.08 for 13.08 coming back. I also got him in our Sharkpool league that we started last year but I took him straight at 1.08.

Actual rookie drafts though. I saw he was settling in after Lamb and Jeudy. Reagor went before him in many places. It was such a deep class, had good RBs as well. It just seemed like the late 1st round in 1QB and even early 2nd in SF was the sweet spot. Insane value so whatever moves I did make weren't very big. Even things like 2.06 plus a 2nd or plus some scrub that someone likes and you get to 2.02. Add another small piece to another partner and you're at 1.11. That kind of thing. 

But, if I thought ADP had him above Lamb and Jeudy it would have been a completely different story. 

Really long winded answer. I'm not a genius for liking Jefferson, my only real point is that ADP drives so much of this and I knew that if I was right about him then the value was great. Those kind of gems aren't always there. T Marshall is a faceplanter roster clogger right now. Just like that. My only hope with him is that Rhule may be one of those conservative coaches that doesn't like to play rookies. IDK. Straws. Grasping. Gonna go get more caffeine now.

 
I liked Pittman, Higgins and *cough cough* Vaughn at that same area of the draft, so I also wasn't bent out of shape about going after JJ specifically. I was making deals to get picks in that neighborhood. 

 
rockaction said:
Very difficult to assess BPA when the players just seem to form an unidentifiable mass where the opportunity that they will receive is the concern rather than identifiable talent differentials at some point. Especially when need is glaring and omnipresent to the GM. I'm a full believer in BPA, too, it's that my personal scouting and assessment is circumspect at times. All of ours is, which is why Justin Jefferson went very much behind Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb in almost every rookie draft in 2020. If only we could use the year and have it as hindsight we could act upon in that case! 

Just saying that it's not that easy sometimes.  
You are right but at some point you have to make a stand....right or wrong you have to come to your conclusion and roll with it.  Knowing the future and doing your due diligence to make a conclusion on who you think is the BPA are two totally different things.  All you can do is your own work and conclusion based on what you know.  Right or wrong you can live with that if your process is good and you believe in it.  Nobody will be perfect.  

Put in the time to come up with your own combined draft board and then follow it.  I suppose there are times when ADP can factor in if you want to be risky and wait on someone but for me in a rookie draft I would rather get the guy I want even if it's too soon because all it takes is one guy with my same thoughts to ruin my day if I wait.  Trust your big board and take the BPA when it's your turn.  You will end up much happier in the end (at least I do).  

 
*cough cough* Vaughn
Still breathing? 

Yep, still breathing. 

Put in the time to come up with your own combined draft board and then follow it.
Indeed, and I do. I'm just saying that around that late second/early third area where you really stop having predictively meaningful tiers inter-positionally because one isn't a scout. For example, watch Jalen Tolbert and Jerome Ford (just because their ADP is now similar) this year and tell me which guy you prefer or whose game is going to translate at the pro level. Very difficult. So tell me need isn't going to factor in there. I mean, we can't often even get the intra-position analysis correct, never mind fleshing out a winning and diverse roster in dynasty. The league we play in together obviously has IDP so one needs to factor that in, too, so it's more like the mid-third where you really start to get a mish-mash of guys if you're doing it right. 

I know that BPA is the way to go, provided that you know who the best player is. But if you don't know who is going to translate to the pros, then fire your darts away at the dartboard within reason, I say. 

Maybe that makes me a bad player. I think it just limits my own expectations of what I can bring to the table as an amateur evaluator. 

As far as ADP goes, I don't think either of us that were talking about it were getting at taking/not taking the BPA at ADP. I was more asking about what one needed to do to get to that ADP so he could take the BPA at the slot where he should go. That's all I was curious about with barackdhouse's JJ thing. Maximization of assets and all. 

 
Still breathing? 

Yep, still breathing. 

Indeed, and I do. I'm just saying that around that late second/early third area where you really stop having predictively meaningful tiers inter-positionally because one isn't a scout. For example, watch Jalen Tolbert and Jerome Ford (just because their ADP is now similar) this year and tell me which guy you prefer or whose game is going to translate at the pro level. Very difficult. So tell me need isn't going to factor in there. I mean, we can't often even get the intra-position analysis correct, never mind fleshing out a winning and diverse roster in dynasty. The league we play in together obviously has IDP so one needs to factor that in, too, so it's more like the mid-third where you really start to get a mish-mash of guys if you're doing it right. 

I know that BPA is the way to go, provided that you know who the best player is. But if you don't know who is going to translate to the pros, then fire your darts away at the dartboard within reason, I say. 

Maybe that makes me a bad player. I think it just limits my own expectations of what I can bring to the table as an amateur evaluator. 

As far as ADP goes, I don't think either of us that were talking about it were getting at taking/not taking the BPA at ADP. I was more asking about what one needed to do to get to that ADP so he could take the BPA at the slot where he should go. That's all I was curious about with barackdhouse's JJ thing. Maximization of assets and all. 
I am in complete agreement that need should be used as a tie breaker for sure.  If you truly have no preference and have equal value for two guys then using your need as a tie break is the way to go.  This whole thing is a crapshoot.  As you said we are not professional evaluators.  I can sleep a lot better at night if I follow my process and take my BPA and miss than if I go off script and miss.  

 
I've only done one rookie draft, this past year was my first in my first dynasty / devy league. (SF / devy / best ball w/ 2pt TEP)

Entered with 1.11, 1.17, 2.14, 3.14 after taking them in the dispersal draft.

Traded 1.11 (Ended up being Trey Sermon... Javonte Williams, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson also still on the board) and 1.17 (Ended up being Tank Bigsby... all top 2023 guys except of Bijan and DJU also still on the board) for 1.03, 3.04, 3.23 with the intention of adding to my lack of QBs.

Traded 1.03 (Ended up being Kyle Pitts... may turn out to be an oops in this 2pt TEP but I really needed QBs) for 1.04, 2.24

1.04 - Drafted Trey Lance... time will tell if I should have went with Pitts, he had a better first year than I was expecting/hoping.

(Aside: At the very next pick someone traded all three of their 2023 picks to move up from 1.19 to 1.05 to draft Justin Fields.  Had I known that deal was out there I probably would have taken it)

Traded 2.24 (Ended up being Rhamondre Stevenson) and Laviska Shenault for 2.01

2.01 - Jayden Waddle... happy with this move to move up and snag Waddle as 25th player off the board.

Traded 2.14 (Ended up being Jalen Wydermyer... Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kadarius Toney, ARSB also still on board) for Kedon Slovis (Devy)... Oops.

3.04 - Drafted Jerrion Ealy (Devy)... probably oops... Marvin Mims, Matt Corral, Carson Strong also still on board.

3.14 - Drafted Malik Willis (Devy)... happy here at 62nd player taken

3.23 - Drafted Desmond Ridder (Devy)... time will tell but not bad for 71st player taken

Overall I was pretty happy but letting Kyle Pitts go in 2pt TEP may haunt me for years.

 
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As far as ADP goes, I don't think either of us that were talking about it were getting at taking/not taking the BPA at ADP. I was more asking about what one needed to do to get to that ADP so he could take the BPA at the slot where he should go. That's all I was curious about with barackdhouse's JJ thing. Maximization of assets and all. 
Well actually I do kind of advocate for that if your board is just right. I may not have said it specifically above but I will now. It may be more of a redraft or startup strategy but I absolutely say take a *lesser than BPA* if you feel strongly you can still get your BPA a little later.

I looked at a couple more of my JJ rookie drafts and saw one where I remember taking Lamb at 1.05 even though JJ was my BPA. Then I got him at 1.10.

But that was a perfect board for it. I *hate* getting sniped and typically the gap for this kind of move needs to be pretty big. Meaning I was much higher than consensus on JJ. There may not be someone like that this year. If it were a much smaller gap, like deciding between Lamb and Jeudy, then go purely with your BPA.

Anyway I take players that I have rated lower before higher rated players *all the time* if ADP and my board allow.

 
Mims, Reagor and Terrace Marshall were all huge whiffs for me. I think the appeal of each was clear but just total duds so far. I don't know if it's work ethic, not mentally picking the game up or what but the it's hard to flame out as bad as they have. 

 
Well actually I do kind of advocate for that if your board is just right
Oh, I think we're crossed in language once again. I agree with you. In other words, if you thought you could get JJ at 1.10 and you had the 1.05, too, you might pick Lamb or Jeudy if you didn't think that they would make it to 1.10 even if Lamb of Jeudy wasn't the best player at 1.05. 

In other words, maybe I confused words or spoke for you, but what you're describing is what I would try and do (if I had the guts, that is). That's what I mean when I say BPA at their ADP. That's what we're always shooting for, right? To know their ADP, know your leaguemates and their needs, and anticipate whether or not you can delay the actual BPA at a particular ADP. 

 
I think the appeal of each was clear but just total duds so far. I don't know if it's work ethic, not mentally picking the game up or what but the it's hard to flame out as bad as they have
I want to kick Mims in the ### and tell him to line it up correctly. Guy can't line up, ilov. He takes illegal motion and false start penalties because he either doesn't know the playbook or he's just really not smart about formations. I worry about him even starting a play without drawing a flag.  

 
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Oh, I think we're crossed in language once again. I agree with you. In other words, if you thought you could get JJ at 1.10 and you had the 1.05, too, you might pick Lamb or Jeudy if you didn't think that they would make it to 1.10 even if Lamb of Jeudy wasn't the best player at 1.05. 

In other words, maybe I confused words or spoke for you, but what you're describing is what I would try and do (if I had the guts, that is). That's what I mean when I say BPA at their ADP. That's what we're always shooting for, right? To know their ADP, know your leaguemates and their needs, and anticipate whether or not you can delay the actual BPA at a particular ADP. 
Yes.

And then to piggyback off the other discussion re:2022 it may be the case that the board this year is just whacked. ADP is always going to fluctuate, and like you described the clutter of cross-positional players that are a mess once you get to the 2nd/3rd round - that phenomenon may be much closer to the top of the 1st bottom of the 2nd this year.

In other words I probably won't be getting too cute this year with these kinds of moves. But I don't even have a board yet so what am I talking about.

 
I want to kick Mims in the ### and tell him to line it up correctly. Guy can't line up, ilov. He takes illegal motion and false start penalties because he either doesn't know the playbook or he's just really not smart about formations. I worry about him even starting a play without drawing a flag.  
Unreal that he just can't figure this out. It seems like he must not be a very bright guy. I know those Big 12 offenses often just put players in the same spot every time and ask them to do a limited amount of things. It's a shame they can't find a spot for him, seems like he might have to be more of a situational deep threat. I thought he flashed some potential in his limited plays year 1 but year 2 just got even worse. 

 
Reagor is kind of the same way. Something just always seems to be wrong.  Wrong route, dropped pass, gets caught by the ankle, etc. Anytime it seems like he is about to make a play, something goes wrong. It's really incredible actually. To be as fast, explosive and strong as Reagor is and yet to always come up just short on every play is quite improbable. 

 
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Not me but in my IDP league. Carter RB was taken at 1.10, then 2.01 guy takes Carter Safety. 

Still befuddles me. Obviously didn't have his own sheet he was crossing names of on. 

Posts a day later "So apparently there are 2 Michael Carters on the Jets and they are both rookies...WTF"

 

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