The Gronk Vs. Aaron Hernandez (1 Viewer)

[Go deep]

The Gronk... Bigger redzone target, more snaps, great player

Snaps for a TE like Gronk mean nothing, targets are all that matters for TE in Fantasy!!! If NE has a better running game I forecast Gronks redzone targets will decrease some, I think by the end of the season Hernandez will be Targeted twice as much as Gronk.

You cant get targets if you arent on the field. I like Hernandez in best ball because he will have a few big games a year, but i wouldnt want to count on him every week. Like i have pointed out before, the Pats offense was alot more efficient when Gronk was getting more playing time at the end of the season than in the begining when Hernandez was being used more.

 

[Faust]

Think of Hernandez as a big 3rd WR more than anything. A mismatch. These guys like Hernandez and Finley can block, just creatively - not in a 3-pt. stance next to the tackle.

I am happy that everyone keeps pumping Gronkowski - keeps the price on Hernandez low for the time being.

Hernandez has decent strength and can be an adequate blocker in space, but won't ever be the TE lining up in three point stance taking on the defensive ends and tackles. That is ok, he doesn't need to be that player as that is the role that is reserved more for Gronk, Crumpler, and now rookie Lee Smith. Gronk will see more snaps then Hernandez, which is also ok as a significant number of Gronk's snaps are blocking plays and you don't get points for him laying a nice block that frees up Hernandez to streak down the field for the touchdown.



Gronk is a very good player and has significant fantasy potential and he is the better all around TE to be sure, but he will be drafted in fantasy drafts ahead of Hernandez and according to current ADP data. Gronk will be selected significantly enough ahead of Hernandez that draft value in 2011 becomes a big factor in evaluating both players. I love the bashing of Hernandez, as it will hopefully drive his price down enough that he will then become a player who will be poised to exceed his ADP and will be the type of player who can help fantasy owners to win championships.

Those who are predicting Hernandez to be "worthless" make me laugh. For Hernandez to fall off the face of the earth means one of a few scenarios:

1. Major Injury

2. Patriots failing to utilize a player who was very productive last year and is continuing to develop in an offensive scheme that can utilize three TEs and is designed with specific plays designed for a hybrid TE like Hernandez

3. Major regression in work ethic, ability, etc.

4. A substantial drop in opportunities (targets) for Hernandez.

Branch will be 32 when the season starts and Welker turned 30 earlier this year. They are reliable players, but both are aging and either declining or on the cusp of declining. The other Patriots WRs haven't developed to the point where they scare opposing defensive coordinators. Hernandez entered the NFL at 20 years of age and immediately stepped in and produced which is rare (historically) for the TE position. Could Hernandez fall apart and become the TE equivalent of Michael Clayton? Sure he could, but it seems unlikely.

I like both Gronk and Hernandez as they have Brady who is a top QB and a system that is designed to utilize both of their skill sets. Gronk is likely the safer player and is easy to like with his proven red-zone skills, but he isn't a lock to hit 10 TDs again. Hernandez didn't see the field as much as Gronk did last year, but that is a good thing as he has potential to see a jump in his involvement in the offense with his continued development and assuming he stays healthy. Reports last year indicated that both Gronk and Hernandez had great work ethic and were very coachable and the Patriots felt like they had hit on two players who would make significant offensive contributions for years to come.

Hernandez plays more like the new hybrid style of TE similar to Finley, Keller, etc. and he has career potential similar to these players. To completely blow him off is the risk of allowing your own personal bias to creep into your player evaluations. I learned a long time ago that I needed to not be overly critical of players I personally didn't like, as I had a tendency to bump them down too much and conversely I tended to over value players that I personally liked.

I did find this article that touches on the reasons why TE involvement in the offense in the NFL has been taking off. It is worth a read:

Three Tight End Offensive Formation

 

[I was in the pool]

Here are the stat comparisons I have on Gronk vs. Hernandez in my spreadsheet:

RRPG (total times a player gets out into a pass route each game):

Hernandez: 29.5 RRPG

Gronk: 13.4

Routes/Snap

Hernandez: 62%

Gronk: 34%

Gronk is blocking all the time. Hernandez is lining up all over the field with Brady looking for mismatches (as a 20 YO rookie). Also, Hernandez 11% missed tackle % to Gronk's 7%...more elusive in the open field/after the catch.

Not close in terms of future value to me, but for all the "wait and see what happens" folks out there - best of luck to you.

 

[Faust]

The Gronk... Bigger redzone target, more snaps, great player

Snaps for a TE like Gronk mean nothing, targets are all that matters for TE in Fantasy!!! If NE has a better running game I forecast Gronks redzone targets will decrease some, I think by the end of the season Hernandez will be Targeted twice as much as Gronk.

You cant get targets if you arent on the field. I like Hernandez in best ball because he will have a few big games a year, but i wouldnt want to count on him every week. Like i have pointed out before, the Pats offense was alot more efficient when Gronk was getting more playing time at the end of the season than in the begining when Hernandez was being used more.

Hernandez was battling injuries in the later part of the season, and they added Branch after they dumped Moss, so some of that efficiency gained could be attributed to Branch adding legitimacy to the passing game again. The Patriots also started to run the ball much better in the second half of the season. Gronk and Hernandez will see an increase in targets as they both earned the trust of Brady by catching over 70% of the passes thrown their way. If you like Gronk as the better player that is ok, but he will cost you a higher pick according to current ADP data. Hernandez is currently going off the boards as a TE2 for fantasy football purposes, so I see him as a value pick who could easily outperform his ADP.

 

[Faust]

Some analysis from Greg Cosell on twitter:

@gregcosell

TE Hernandez moves more like big WR. Smooth, fluid. Excellent RAC. Athletic receiving TE can extend from formation + dictate mismatches.

25 May via web

And a few more observations from Greg Cosell:

A closer look at Gronkowski and Hernandez

Excerpt:

Over the next few days, I'll pick Cosell's brain about the Patriots' personnel and schemes. First up, tight ends.

On Rob Gronkowski

GC: "I think he has a chance to be a very complete tight end. My initial comparison is with Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys), but he's a bit more fluid and smoother. Therefore, I believe he has a chance to become a better intermediate receiver. He can certainly run the vertical seam. He can block, he can run routes from the line of scrimmage, he can be flexed out."

On Aaron Hernandez

GC: "I really liked him coming out of Florida. I believe he is a 'new age' tight end that is continuing the evolution of the position. He's what I like to call a 'Joker', like a movable chess piece. You can use him all over, which is what Don Coryell did with Kellen Winslow (back in with the Chargers in the 1980s - a development which is highlighted in the Games That Changed The Game book). He's very fluid, a much better pure athlete than Gronkowski, really a different player than Gronkowski. He's very good after the catch and I watched him beat corners off the line (in 2010)."

On Scheme Impact

GC: "When they put Gronkowski and Hernandez on the field at the same time, they are asking defenses, 'How do you want to treat these players?' Hernandez really has to be treated as a wide receiver. He beats cornerbacks (Cosell cited a "stick-nod-go" route on which Hernandez blew past Chargers' corner Quentin Jammer as evidence). So the Patriots are making defenses declare. Do they want to play base personnel? If so, Hernandez is matched up with a safety or a linebacker. If the defense wants to put a corner on him, the Patriots may have a mismatch elsewhere with Wes Welker against a safety. That's what happened against the Colts when Gronkowski and Hernandez were on the field. The Colts ended up with linebacker Pat Angerer on Welker and Welker scored a 22-yard touchdown."

Summary

In terms of skill set, Cosell really isn't telling those of us who watch the Patriots regularly anything we didn't learn in 2010. But he really amplifies the point that the goal of the Patriots offense is creating mismatches. Some teams are just "we'll run our stuff" type offenses, but the Patriots' constant effort to get multi-dimensional players at the same position is what makes them a "game plan" offense that's so hard to match up with. For example, when the Patriots drafted Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley as running backs, there was some wonderment about whether BenJarvus Green-Ellis' 2010 work wasn't valued or whether Danny Woodhead was going to be replaced. In reality, Vereen and Ridley aren't replacements for those two but complements and depth. Vereen can't be expected to be as potent a receiver, scatback as Woodhead, but he can afford some of that while also being a backup to Green-Ellis' role. And Ridley brings short yardage thump that Green-Ellis may not have and replaces Sammy Morris, an outgoing free agent. Opposing defenses will have to figure out how the Patriots plan to deploy them, same as they had to - and still have to - with the Gronknandez Combo at tight end.

 

[I was in the pool]

Great post

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Bumping this thread for training camp.

Word is that Gronkowski has been dominant so far in Pats camp. How does everybody see this breaking down. Can either TE (or both) finish top 5 this year?

 

[todisco1]

Bumping this thread for training camp.Word is that Gronkowski has been dominant so far in Pats camp. How does everybody see this breaking down. Can either TE (or both) finish top 5 this year?

Doubt either could be top 5 if both are healthy, but both could be top 12.

 

[shortbow]

Bumping this thread for training camp.Word is that Gronkowski has been dominant so far in Pats camp. How does everybody see this breaking down. Can either TE (or both) finish top 5 this year?

I had said last year that I think Gronkowski has what it takes to be top 5, even in New Englands system and with Hernandez still being on the field. Expecting the role of TEs in the NFL to change dramatically this year.

 

[Faust]

Gronk had a rougher day today with a number of drops and left the field injured, but under his own power. Still a top 10 TE with Top 5 upside.

Hernandez has struggled with blocking, but has practiced more with the WRs. Has looked great at times in practice, especially catching the ball as a red zone target. Still a top 15 TE with top 10 upside.

ADPs will determine the value for both of these guys, but both can be drafted at their current ADP with significant upside.

EDIT: The injury wasn't from a hit and doesn't appear to be serious, so I made the edit.