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The housing crisis in America. Is it time for Congress to step in? (1 Viewer)

Gopher State

Footballguy
I watched 60 minutes tonight, they did a story about investors large and small buying single family homes in America.  The area that the target is the sunbelt, all cash offers, no inspection, no repairs, etc.  once they secure the property they quickly raise the rent.  One corporation that is a stock company boasted a 67 percent increase in profits.  They stated about 30 percent of the single family homes in the sunbelt are purchased by investors,  basically squeezing out families from buying homes.  My personal experience is that I purchased a second home in the west valley area of AZ 4 years ago for 300k, I get letters/ phone calls from investors on a monthly basis wanting to buy my home.  My neighbor put his home up for sale and it got into a bidding war with an investor paying 700k cash no inspection.  
 

so is it time for Washington to do something about this I.e. windfall taxes on rent increases, increase rent more then 5 percent you pay extra taxes, or don’t allow any tax deductions for repairs/taxes/insurance. Etc.  maybe limit the number of rentals you can own.  This is a real problem that is killing the middle class in America.  Your thoughts ?

 
Pretty nasty and tricky situation. There probably should be some intervention 

The politician that would attempt to do something about this will be labeled many bad things. 

 
As a RE investor, I'm leery of buying at today's values.  We still have supply chain issues in building supplies, especially items such as lumber.  New home costs are sky high until that works out, once it does the cost of buying an existing home and instead building your own will be less.  That is, assuming other inflation issues don't offset the supply chain easing and that we can get the mills back operating at full staff and capacity to do so.  A lot of assumptions in that statement.

 
so is it time for Washington to do something about this I.e. windfall taxes on rent increases, increase rent more then 5 percent you pay extra taxes, or don’t allow any tax deductions for repairs/taxes/insurance. Etc.  maybe limit the number of rentals you can own.  This is a real problem that is killing the middle class in America.  Your thoughts ?


This is sort of a complex topic.

In general, my viewpoint is that, except for some unincorporated areas of Alaska, that there are no real "home owners" in America. Paying property taxes is essentially like paying rent but in a different format. Lots of people have to exit their homes and living situations if they just can't keep up on their property tax payments.

I don't think much will be done from our collected cabal of elected officials as they stand to profit from the current trajectory of what many people are calling "The Great Reset"

For people without kids right now but are thinking about having them, I would say stick to the DINK principle ( Double Income No Kids) and then stick to the FI/RE principles ( Financial Independence/Retire Early spectrum)  While I don't agree with everything said for FI/RE, I do agree that the practical considerations for buying a home are different at a generational level. I have property in Brooklyn and had it for a very very long time. Could I afford it today? Yes. But I also have a full lifetime of earning behind me to do it. But I can't sit here and say the practical issues of buying a home then are the same for someone who is in their 30s right now reading this in these forums. I also agree with the core "minimalism" concept of FI/RE, which is be mobile and be able to leave anywhere at anytime for any reason. Having lots of stuff only weighs you down. I would just suggest for those people in this DINK situation to just not have kids period. Buying a home is really critical if you have children. If you don't, you can find a way to get by much better.

For those with young kids in the middle school and high school range, I would suggest getting your kids to join the military as a career. It's probably the best still functional retirement plan for a wide scale range of ability types ( I'm not going to go full Jordan Peterson here, but many people aren't going to be heavy hitters in STEM, that's just reality)  Unless there's a specific goal in mind ( i.e. like being a surgeon), I would tell those folks to get their kids into the military. That gets those kids out, working, earning some money, having a pathway to pay for college, find a new culture, and maybe last the 20 years or more to get a pension and long term medical.

For those already entrenched with a marriage, home and kids, I would say you just have to ride it out. Statistical odds are divorce are high and once those kids leave the nest, many of those guys in that situation will be handed divorce papers. For the average person, moving when you have kids entrenched in school and you are likely entrenched in your career situation is not really viable for a lot of people.

The design of the "nuclear family" was meant as a benefit long term for the state and government. There is a need for future workers, soldiers and taxpayers. If the system denies you the means to participate in that social compact, then remove your end of the bargain. Look at Japan, there is a crisis for the massively declining birth rate over time. Japan is a dying society. Lots of people there are living longer and fewer and fewer people are getting married and having children. That's how the average American who is scraping by to make a living fights back - Don't have kids. Don't have any more kids. Don't be a wildly extravagant consumer.

If every American operated under the FI/RE principle, this country would economically collapse.

There are still lots of single guys in here. Find a skill. Not a career but an actual transferable and needed skill. Hone that like a sharp edge of a knife. That will help you create a career. More the better if it's something you can do remotely. If you can, do it remotely and rent in the cheapest place you can find. Don't buy a home even if you can scratch together the money. Don't get married and don't have kids and don't live outside your means.

Notice I say "Buying a home" instead of "Home Ownership"

If you are paying property taxes, you are still a renter. The "state" still has their boot up against your throat. Given bad luck or a bad string of circumstances or bad situations, that "home" can easily be taken from you.

Find the cheapest rent you can and stay lean and mobile. "Buying A Home" is often a trap for most men. I mean lots of them invest into  that situation because they have obligations to their children. If you get to retirement, if there is still such a thing and the world doesn't destroy itself by then, look at being an ExPat if that's viable. Personally I think Mexico is a decent choice for most Americans retiring today or soon with the understanding that their income will be fixed and not very much for the long haul for the rest of their lives.

I don't expect there to be widespread public policy change to move away from the current trajectory. The wealthy elite own America and they own the political establishment. The design was and is to make all of you cattle. Before, in older times, when I was younger, at least there was some attempt to put frosting on it. Now the wealthy elite want to do it and rub it in your face.

If you don't have children, then the cabal of power brokers who actually run this country can't have a generation of new slaves to push around.

I'm a geriatric. I'm retired now. I don't have many more years left. I'm not in the generational timeline that many of you are in right now. Focus on necessities. You don't need a new air fryer. You don't need a water rower. You don't need a weighted blanket. If you can't fit all your possessions in a single car, then you have too much stuff.

Widespread public policy will have an ATTEMPT to change once the cabal of wealthy elite realize no one is having children anymore. Be fair about it, why would anyone want to have kids today if they were starting out right now? I'm not talking about those of you with 15 year olds at home right now, but people in their early 20s as of today just starting out in life.  Why would my godson want to have kids and get married and buy a home today? It's the "Tinder generation"  Sorry but I'm not going to be PC here, I'm not all that gung ho at the thought of my godson marrying off to someone who was ripe on Tinder for a decade before she met him. Not a type like that. And how many are there out there that are not types like that? The world is chaos. The economy long term looks cooked. It's the age of woke identity politics. It appears there is basically state sanctioned cultural and social terrorism allowed. Everyone is staring at a tiny phone screen instead of talking to each other. If you talk, you risk getting sued. Who wants to have kids as of today? Let's be honest. It's not a hard sell for most.

No children. No future workers. No future tax base. No future cattle and slaves for the wealthy elite.

Channel your inner Matthew Broderick here - If you present people with a Lose/Lose/Lose/Lose proposition, the only answer is not to play at all.

There are zero real "home owners" here if you bought a house in America, unless you are in some unincorporated part of Alaska and that is some brutally hard and complex day to day living. (There's a reason it's unincorporated)

The only things you own in his life is your integrity. How you react. How you choose to be happy or sad. When you cry. When you laugh. Who you love. These are things that no one can take from you. Those are things that you can only surrender away on your own choice.

Here's what matters the most. Real freedom is the power to walk away from anyone or anything in this life, other than your own biological children, at any time.

 
One possible way to do it: significantly raises property taxes on property not owner-occupied.  That makes the operation costs a lot higher and discourages investment -ownership.  Downside: investment companies would probably just pass costs on to renters so it could back-fire.
Yeah, it's a tough situation, and hard to think of an intervention that wouldn't backfire.

The market is probably just going to have to sort it out. If people are going to keep swarming Sun Belt areas and paying whatever it costs, there's probably not much to be done.

If that happens, it'll be fun to see what justification there is when the gubment bails out Blackrock one of these days. 

 
I watched 60 minutes tonight, they did a story about investors large and small buying single family homes in America.  The area that the target is the sunbelt, all cash offers, no inspection, no repairs, etc.  once they secure the property they quickly raise the rent.  One corporation that is a stock company boasted a 67 percent increase in profits.  They stated about 30 percent of the single family homes in the sunbelt are purchased by investors,  basically squeezing out families from buying homes.  My personal experience is that I purchased a second home in the west valley area of AZ 4 years ago for 300k, I get letters/ phone calls from investors on a monthly basis wanting to buy my home.  My neighbor put his home up for sale and it got into a bidding war with an investor paying 700k cash no inspection.  
 

so is it time for Washington to do something about this I.e. windfall taxes on rent increases, increase rent more then 5 percent you pay extra taxes, or don’t allow any tax deductions for repairs/taxes/insurance. Etc.  maybe limit the number of rentals you can own.  This is a real problem that is killing the middle class in America.  Your thoughts ?
Corporations don’t pay taxes bud.  Not the big ones.  They’d leave so many loophole that this would only kill the mom and pops like myself.  

 
One possible way to do it: significantly raises property taxes on property not owner-occupied.  That makes the operation costs a lot higher and discourages investment -ownership.  Downside: investment companies would probably just pass costs on to renters so it could back-fire.
I’ve seen this one the local level.  The school was basically paid for by landlords.  I sold those properties and left that town.  

 
moleculo said:
One possible way to do it: significantly raises property taxes on property not owner-occupied.  That makes the operation costs a lot higher and discourages investment -ownership.  Downside: investment companies would probably just pass costs on to renters so it could back-fire.
One theory re: the lack of rentals is that the corporate investors are intentionally refraining from improving buildings, adding inventory, etc. because it's simpler to just collect rent as is.  One proposal I've heard is to change property taxes such that they are based simply on the land value rather than the current "improved land" value.  That is, the property taxes on a given plot are X, regardless of whether there's a shack, a nice house, a mansion, or a skyscraper.  The theory is that this will encourage investment, rather than the current property tax laws, which actively discourage investment.

I imagine such a change would have other unintended consequences, though.

 
One theory re: the lack of rentals is that the corporate investors are intentionally refraining from improving buildings, adding inventory, etc. because it's simpler to just collect rent as is.  One proposal I've heard is to change property taxes such that they are based simply on the land value rather than the current "improved land" value.  That is, the property taxes on a given plot are X, regardless of whether there's a shack, a nice house, a mansion, or a skyscraper.  The theory is that this will encourage investment, rather than the current property tax laws, which actively discourage investment.

I imagine such a change would have other unintended consequences, though.
so an acre would have the same property tax value if it has a single-wide trailer or a 10k sf. house.  Who do you think benefits the most from this change?

 
A lot of our homes here were bought blindly from Chicago people who wanted to move out and work from home (COVID).  Others were built for weekly rentals.  

 
Sabertooth said:
I’ve seen this one the local level.  The school was basically paid for by landlords.  I sold those properties and left that town.  
yeah.  I'm in Charlotte area, so on the border between NC and SC.  SC works like that - property is taxed at 6%, unless it's owner-occupied in which case it's 4%.  In other words, owner-occupied property tax is 33% less.  As a result, the NC side of the border is much more attractive to investment buyers.

There are good and bad effects of that - there are a lot of unintended consequences.

 
so an acre would have the same property tax value if it has a single-wide trailer or a 10k sf. house.  Who do you think benefits the most from this change?
The idea is that any given acre would have the same property tax value, yes.  However, that is not to say that every acre has the same value.  For example, a beachfront acre is taxed at $X, while a different acre is taxed at $Y, both regardless of what improvements/buildings are present.

 
The best way to solve the housing crisis is for cities to increase density. Less single family homes - more condos, duplexes, fourplexes. Allow more density and you'll have more supply.

 
moleculo said:
One possible way to do it: significantly raises property taxes on property not owner-occupied.  That makes the operation costs a lot higher and discourages investment -ownership.  Downside: investment companies would probably just pass costs on to renters so it could back-fire.


Large corporate interests will find a way to loop hole that.

By virtue of having old man FU money, I have access to options and loopholes that many of you don't practically have in your financial took kit. There are people who have more wealth than me up the chain who have even more options and loopholes at their disposal.

Rule changes mean nothing. Regime changes mean nothing. Ending legacy means everything.

Anyone who wants to see long term practical change in public policy and governance should read Mark Bowden's Killing Pablo.  Escobar went completely out of control. He was taking hostages of the "elite". He was killing cops and the military. He was disrupting regular industry. He was operating outside of the normalized grift cycle of his society and culture. You can steal and be corrupt, but there are structures in which your society allows you to steal and be corrupt.

In the end, the United States sent William Garrison to organize the logistics of change. He combined and negotiated with the cops, the military, the wealthy elite and the other Cartels to put aside their differences and just start killing Escobar's family.

Legacy is the weak point for the wealthy elite in America.

Take Joe Manchin and his daughter. His daughter is a major power player in Big Pharma. His daughter is a big reason why  the price of EpiPens spiked. If you were a not well to do American and your child died because you just couldn't afford an EpiPen, then multiple your tragedy by 1000 other people. Most will weep and mourn and take it. A few will simply wipe out the people in charge who are sitting on their yachts and laughing it up.

All throughout recorded human history, major changes in functional governance started and ended in blood.

Do I want this to happen? Do I think it's right? Do I think it's ethical? Will it stop corruption forever? My answer is it's inevitable.

Killing the children of your enemies is deep inside the tool box of the standard political playbook. All throughout actual human existence on the planet. Some people will shout and scream and point fingers and virtue signal but it's how human behavior really works. The idea of prisoners and hostages is a mostly modern concept. When you force scarcity on the masses, they operate in a scarcity mindset. No resources to feed and house and maintenance prisoners and hostages.

When powerful people watch their children die and they know it's based on their own corrupt actions, they are reminded that they are no better than anyone else in life.

Too many lawyers in these forums. Not enough historians, data scientists, evolutionary biologists, behavioral psychologists, mathematicians, tradesmen and soldiers. When you sit in your living room watching your big screen TV and start complaining about your first world problems, all your "abundance" that you take for granted every single day was paid for in blood by people around the world who are oppressed for you to have those things.

Changing laws and changing taxes and grand speeches by elected officials is just a shell game. The catalyst for real political change is always death.

 
The idea is that any given acre would have the same property tax value, yes.  However, that is not to say that every acre has the same value.  For example, a beachfront acre is taxed at $X, while a different acre is taxed at $Y, both regardless of what improvements/buildings are present.


I don't know how it is in other states, but in Texas, your taxes are based on both land value and improvement value. So its a little bit of both. I assumed most states were like that, but I guess I am wrong.

 
Fed Govt can't fix the problem - its incapable of doing so IMO. The Fed Govt rarely gets things right when they interfere 

I don't know what the solution is - if there is a demand for high rentals that demand will be filled. only when the demand stops will the prices going up stops too right ?>

 
The first housing market crash was a result of bad monetary policy, but moreover the pursuit of "equity" in housing through complex mortgage vehicles, resulting in bad behaviors by banks through CDO's and other means.

The current concern is less intense, though also born of bad monetary policies. 

 
Things are bad now.

I predict they'd get worse if Congress tried to help.

We need to make it easier to build new homes. Local governments and NIMBYism are the problem. There are a few places (California!) that are productively addressing the problem, but it's hard because politics is dominated by special interests, and NIMBYist homeowners tend to be well organized.

It is theoretically possible that Congress could make building new homes easier by overriding bad state and local policies -- but I'd have to see it to believe it.

 
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GordonGekko said:
The only things you own in his life is your integrity. How you react. How you choose to be happy or sad. When you cry. When you laugh. Who you love. These are things that no one can take from you. Those are things that you can only surrender away on your own choice.

Here's what matters the most. Real freedom is the power to walk away from anyone or anything in this life, other than your own biological children, at any time.
Spoken like a true stoic. 

 
If you can change the disparity in wealth, that would help the housing market a lot.  I’m not sure what measures we want the feds to take - I’m not sure I want them to take any in a free market.  Is the housing market any different than other consumer markets right now?  Either you have the money or you don’t.  If there were money in apartments, they would be built.  

 
One thing congress could do is stop people flooding across the border. 
While true, this is akin to tackling our deficit by reducing spending by a couple billion dollars.  

I've been watching the battles we have locally over housing and it seems rather simple to me.  Local governments need to incentivise developers to build affordable housing.  Make it worth their while.  If there's any role for government to play in this, that's it.  

 
While true, this is akin to tackling our deficit by reducing spending by a couple billion dollars.  

I've been watching the battles we have locally over housing and it seems rather simple to me.  Local governments need to incentivise developers to build affordable housing.  Make it worth their while.  If there's any role for government to play in this, that's it.  
The problem with that is your community is getting more money  in property taxes from more expensive houses.  I’m in a vacation area ant the air bnb industry has really tightened up the market. 

 
The problem with that is your community is getting more money  in property taxes from more expensive houses.  I’m in a vacation area ant the air bnb industry has really tightened up the market. 
The first sentence here is true and goes along with what I posted earlier about the incentives created by property taxes based on improved value versus property taxes based on original land value.  The second sentence, while also likely true, isn't really applicable to much of the country.

Bringing this back around to the thread title, this probably isn't a federal issue (other than interest rates), but a state and local issue.

 
The problem with that is your community is getting more money  in property taxes from more expensive houses.  I’m in a vacation area ant the air bnb industry has really tightened up the market. 
Right.  There's a study going on right now in Seminole County here in Florida that is comparing the costs of county dealing with homelessness (everything from shelters, to food, to healthcare etc) to just giving the tax break to the developers to build more affordable housing.  Preliminary results show, it's a general wash meaning for the costs of dealing with the homeless, they could give the developers the tax breaks necessary to build the housing.  It's slightly more, short term, to do this.  They are still working through long term impacts....but those look like they are going the direction they want them to.  

 
Right.  There's a study going on right now in Seminole County here in Florida that is comparing the costs of county dealing with homelessness (everything from shelters, to food, to healthcare etc) to just giving the tax break to the developers to build more affordable housing.  Preliminary results show, it's a general wash meaning for the costs of dealing with the homeless, they could give the developers the tax breaks necessary to build the housing.  It's slightly more, short term, to do this.  They are still working through long term impacts....but those look like they are going the direction they want them to.  
What will end up happening is to repurpose vacant buildings into housing.  I’ve seen a couple of old schools and a bank here converted into affordable housing.  You hate to turn down big money second homes.  I don’t know the social costs here that you touched on, I’m sure there are some.

 
The first sentence here is true and goes along with what I posted earlier about the incentives created by property taxes based on improved value versus property taxes based on original land value.  The second sentence, while also likely true, isn't really applicable to much of the country.

Bringing this back around to the thread title, this probably isn't a federal issue (other than interest rates), but a state and local issue.
I live on Lake Michigan, 30 min from Notre Dame.  Summer weekly rentals start at $2000/week here.

 
What will end up happening is to repurpose vacant buildings into housing.  I’ve seen a couple of old schools and a bank here converted into affordable housing.  You hate to turn down big money second homes.  I don’t know the social costs here that you touched on, I’m sure there are some.
Many...at least here in Florida.  They are found in everything from criminal justice expenses to healthcare.  They're basically asking themselves if they'd rather spend the money arresting people, fielding nuisance calls etc or spend the money putting up housing so that people have a place to live.  They're asking that question over many different areas.....basically the "preventative" spending vs the "reactionary" spending.

 
The first sentence here is true and goes along with what I posted earlier about the incentives created by property taxes based on improved value versus property taxes based on original land value.  The second sentence, while also likely true, isn't really applicable to much of the country.

Bringing this back around to the thread title, this probably isn't a federal issue (other than interest rates), but a state and local issue.


It definitely needs to be solved at the local level, but it seems like the feds could influence it. They can influence both localities by encouraging upzoning and discourage as much single family home ownership. 

 
Gopher State said:
I watched 60 minutes tonight, they did a story about investors large and small buying single family homes in America.  The area that the target is the sunbelt, all cash offers, no inspection, no repairs, etc.  once they secure the property they quickly raise the rent.  One corporation that is a stock company boasted a 67 percent increase in profits.  They stated about 30 percent of the single family homes in the sunbelt are purchased by investors,  basically squeezing out families from buying homes.  My personal experience is that I purchased a second home in the west valley area of AZ 4 years ago for 300k, I get letters/ phone calls from investors on a monthly basis wanting to buy my home.  My neighbor put his home up for sale and it got into a bidding war with an investor paying 700k cash no inspection.  
 

so is it time for Washington to do something about this I.e. windfall taxes on rent increases, increase rent more then 5 percent you pay extra taxes, or don’t allow any tax deductions for repairs/taxes/insurance. Etc.  maybe limit the number of rentals you can own.  This is a real problem that is killing the middle class in America.  Your thoughts ?
 It's Blackrock.    You will own nothing and be happy.

 
While true, this is akin to tackling our deficit by reducing spending by a couple billion dollars.  

I've been watching the battles we have locally over housing and it seems rather simple to me.  Local governments need to incentivise developers to build affordable housing.  Make it worth their while.  If there's any role for government to play in this, that's it.  
Millions of new people is not akin to reducing spending by a couple billion.  

Look at houston. 10% of the people were illegally here. A massive influx of immigrants led to a massive influx of poorly built properties(often using the same illegal labor). 

How did that work out for them? 

 
Based on the response, it seems I didn't do a good job of providing my thoughts:

Millions of new people is not akin to reducing spending by a couple billion.  
The intention of the illustration was to show that our problem is significantly larger than cutting off border crossings.  While it's true that it would reduce demand, it would do so slightly.  Things, may have changed drastically over the last 10 years (I haven't looked at this stat recently) but over 95% of those coming across our borders "illegally" had arrangements for living.  99% of that 95% were crossing to live with family already here.  That might not be the case today, but it'd have to be almost a 180 shift in stats for it to matter in any meaningful way when we're talking about illegal alien influence on our housing situation.

Look at houston. 10% of the people were illegally here. A massive influx of immigrants led to a massive influx of poorly built properties(often using the same illegal labor). 

How did that work out for them? 
To this comment, I would caution the conflation of developers building poorly built properties and/or the existence of weak housing codes that allow for poorly build properties with them being built poorly because of some massive influx of immigrants.  So, in my view, this second part really has nothing to do with the point I made initially unless there's some evidence out there that shows illegal immigrants being the reason these companies "had" to build bad properties.

Again, it's true that we could cut off all illegal immigrants and that would reduce demand, but that reduction is going to be a drop in the bucket compared to what is left to reconcile.  We are woefully behind in this country in terms of housing and that's been true for at least 15 years.  It's only getting worse.

 
Things are bad now.

I predict they'd get worse if Congress tried to help.

We need to make it easier to build new homes. Local governments and NIMBYism are the problem. There are a few places (California!) that are productively addressing the problem, but it's hard because politics is dominated by special interests, and NIMBYist homeowners tend to be well organized.

It is theoretically possible that Congress could make building new homes easier by overriding bad state and local policies -- but I'd have to see it to believe it.
This.

 

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